Hands

Thin Value on an Awful River

(Villains flaw)

(Difficulty rating)

(Heros exploit)

There was an excellent guide written years ago by SirCuddles that talked
heavily about getting fat value. Fat value is when you maximize every bit of
value from your winning hands, and his premise was that this is one of the
important skills for micro limit games. I agreed with this then; I agree with
it now, and it is something that I am always looking for when I play. In this
hand, I went for fat value even when my top pair was shifted down to
second pair and a flush draw filled. Here is the hand:
$1-$2
Red rock
2:30pm
UTG

Image:

Action:

Hand:

Starting
Stack:

Nitty ABC

$10

$300

MP1

Chip Donor

Call

Covers

MP2

Call

$150

Button

Accidental
midstacker(?)
Hero

???

$450

Small Blind

Passive

$300

Big Blind

Passive

$200

We have been at this table for about 2.5 hours and it has been a total
pendulum swing. The pattern has been thirty minutes of total boredom and
folding around, and then the next thirty minutes are crazy, with pots being
built every other hand. It seems like we might be on the brink of shifting
from rock garden to Crazytown but we cannot be sure.
UTG in this hand is an older gentleman who had been playing ABC.
His strategy was predictable: pre-flop raise then continuation bet. We do

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Red Chip Poker: Late Position

not expect him to get out of line post-flop (or pre-flop for that matter). His
UTG pre-flop range is likely very strong, but we doubt he will do anything
post-flop unless he catches a piece.
MP1 is the Chip Donator. He gets involved in lots of pots preflop, is
passive both preflop and postflop, and has already reloaded twice since we
have been here. He doubled up a while ago when he turned two pair against
AA.
MP2 is new to the table. He bought in for a stack size of $150. This is
indicative of someone that does not understand stack to pot ratios. Middle
sized stacks are the hardest to play. To willingly buy in for such a stack size
is almost always a mistake that is made without understanding.
Hero is likely seen as a TAG. We have been pretty selective pre-flop
but did run and show a bluff about twenty minutes ago. It was a standard
double barrel, but we felt showing the bluff would get us lighter action later.
We flopped a set and stacked a player. That player went to the ATM and
never came back.
The blinds have been here for an hour and really have not done
anything notable. They are the best kind of players to have to your leftthe
kind that just disappear into the table and never hassle you using their
position. We always want these guys protecting our flank.
Even though there are three players involved before our action, the
only one we are focused on is MP1, the Chip Donor. A bad player with
chips is a huge target and one that we are always on the lookout for. We
cheer on the inside whenever this kind of player wins a big pot because we
know he will not be keeping those chips long.
We want to get involved with the Chip Donor so we always at least
consider going for a squeeze and trying to get him heads-up. However, this
is not a great spot for a squeeze.
UTG opened. A nitty ABC raising from UTG reeks of strength. It is
unlikely that he will fold much of his range. We do not want to squeeze,
have him four-bet, and get blown out of the pot.
Even if we do squeeze and UTG folds, the logical progression would
be the Chip Donor calls and then it is the Medium Stackers action. We do
not really want to create that small of an SPR against the Medium Stacker.
It would also be awkward if we induce a back-raise shove from him. If our
hand were a little stronger, such as AQ, we would feel much more
comfortable with a raise. However, with KJs we do not really want to risk
such a situation.
If we are not going to fold or squeeze, our only option left is to call.
Calling allows us to use our position, get involved with the bad player, and
we have decent cards to boot. Notice that the rationale for calling is not just
I have KJs. We look at the entire situation to ensure that calling will be
profitable. We consider the more aggressive routes before just calling.

38

Hands

We call; the blinds fold. We see the flop.

Main Pot: $43
Nitty ABC

Check

Starting
Stack:
$290

Chip Donor

Check

Covers

Mid-stacker

Check

$140

Hero

$30

$440

(UTG)

(MP1)

(MP2)

(Button)

Range:

Once UTG checks, we are very confident that he is uninterested in the

pot. UTG likely would have continuation bet with an overpair, AcKc, or
even AJ, so a check implies he holds a whiffed AK or small pair. After the
original raiser checks, we assume that the Chip Donor or Mid-Stacker
would likely bet if they had a decent hand like top pair or a solid draw.
At this point we feel very confident about our hand. Sure, the original
raiser could have smashed a set on the flop, but more likely than not we will
have the best hand by a large margin if we bet and get action. The flush
draw would incline people to bet out their good hands. A $30 bet is not
awful, but we likely could have made this a bit bigger and made it $35 or
even $40.
Main Pot: $43
Nitty ABC

Check/Fold

Starting
Stack:
$290

Chip Donor

Check/Call

Covers

Mid-stacker

Check/Fold

$140

Hero

$30

$440

(UTG)

(MP1)

(MP2)

(Button)

Range:

We are not surprised to find ourselves up against the Chip Donor.

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Red Chip Poker: Late Position

Main Pot: $103

Chip Donor

Check

Starting
Stack:
Covers

Hero

$85

$410

(MP1)

(Button)

Range:

The Five of Diamonds is an interesting card. It improves certain hands

like 54s, 55, and 86. It also gives some added equity to hands like 65 and 76.
But the Five doesn't really change anything for hands like Ac9c or Jx. The
Five only makes the board wetter going into the river. With the Five now
on board, more river cards can make 4-straights on the river with the Treys,
Sixes, and Eights.
Let us look at his range:
Strong hands: When the Chip Donor check/calls the flop we cannot
fully discount sets like 77 and 44. There is only one combo of JJ left since
there is one Jack on the flop and another in our hand. Many players will
not three-bet JJ pre-flop, so it is a reasonable but unlikely holding. With
three combos of 77, three combos of 44, and one combo of JJ, there are
seven realistic combos of power hands for him. We would never hold 54s
in this situation, but he could. Since the 4c and 5d are visible, there are only
two combos of 54s left. At worst, there are nine combos of super strong
hands in his range.
Good hands: The Chip Donor could also have AJ; there are eight
combos of that hand. There are eight combos of each hand that we beat
like QJ and JT.
Strange hands that got there: Our opponent can have an even wider
range than this when he check/calls the flop and then sees the turn. He
could have actually improved with the 5d with hands like 75s, J5s, etc. He is
also able to show up with hands like 63 and 86. If we put these weak hands
that got lucky in his range, we must also assign him even more weak hands
that caught a piece of this board. If we think he can be here with 63, then
we have to believe he would be here with 64. This means more possible
flush draws, more Jx that we beat, and more pair plus draw type hands that
we are beating.
There is also one more very important thing to note here. Remember
that earlier we mentioned that the Chip Donor doubled up when he turned
two pair against AA. What line did the Chip Donor take when he doubled
up on that hand? He called pre-flop, called the flop (with one pair), and
raised the turn bet when he made two pair. It is noteworthy when a passive
player gets aggressive. In this case, he has gotten aggressive in the past
when he improves and stayed passive when he still only has a single pair or

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Hands

draw. The absence of aggression on the turn points towards him not
having one of these strange monster hands.
At this point, we still feel very confident in our hand and want to
continue value betting. We will be behind sometimes versus two pair or AJ.
We will be compensated for that by the times we get action from the worse
hands. We decide to make the bet under $100 since $100 is such an
important price-point. Our bet of $85 gives draws an incorrect price to
continue. The Chip Donor calls.
Main Pot: $273
Chip Donor

Check

Starting
Stack:
Covers

Hero

$90

$325

(MP1)

(Button)

Range:

The river not only fills up the flush draw, but it also puts down an
overcard to our hand. With all this going against us, why are we betting? In
the same way, why such a small bet into such a big pot? We want to make a
bet that is profitable more than 50% of the time when called. Let us break
down ranges here and see if this bet will accomplish that goal.
Let us start by looking at all of the combos that beat us. Well, the Ace
improved the AJ. That hand was already ahead of us, so the nice effect of
this card is it reduces the possibility of the Villain holding that particular
hand through card removal. There are now six instead of eight
combinations of AJ. There are flush combos, but the Ac makes hands like
Ac9c and AcTc impossible. Let us throw in ten possible flush combos
including things such as 9c8c and KcQc. Further, since Villain is not a great
player, he could also have improved to two pair with a hand such as A7s.
So, if we throw in six combos of two pairs, there are 22 combos of hands
that beat us.
What about great hands like 77 and 54s? Given that Villain had raised
his two pair on the turn in a previous hand we assume he would also do it
on the turn in this hand. Weak players tend to always run the same line
consistently, so no raise on the turn hints more at draws and single pairs.
We need to be called by more combinations of losing hands than
winning hands to make this bet profitable. Since we can think of 22 combos
of hands that beat us, we need more than 22 combos of hands we beat to
continue against our bet. If we start counting combos, there are eight of QJ,
eight of JT, two of J9s, etc. If we can throw in some combos of 87s, we can
add three combos. We can also we throw in six combos of 88 and another
six of 99. As Villain calls wider, you see how easy it can be to factor in
enough worse combos to make this a good bet.
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Red Chip Poker: Late Position

on a board of
Better hands that call

versus
Worse hands that call

x6

x8

x 10

x8

suited x 3

suited x 2

suited x 3

suited x 3
x6

Total: 22

x6
Total: at least 22

The last key element of this hand is our bet sizing with a $90 river bet
into a $281 pot. This is an unusually small bet, well under even the half-pot
size that we typically use. There are two main reasons for the size. First, it is
under the $100 price-point. Second, it widens his calling range to include
plenty of hands that we beat.
We know that we need worse hands to continue in order for this bet to
be profitable. However, if we bet 2/3 pot for $200 here, are we very likely
to get called by JT or 99? Remember, he has over 20 combos of very
possible better hands, so we need to induce those worse Jx hands to
continue every time. We need those crying calls from not only Jx but also
weak pairs like 99 or 7x. What better way to get those calls at a higher
frequency than by giving him a price that he is not likely to refuse? Even if
he only continues a little more often because of the lower price, it can easily
shift this towards being good bet.
One last note about the size is that we are not very likely to choose it
against a good player. We fully expect a good player to correctly read it as a
small bet that we would fold to a raise. A good player would then bluff raise
profitably. This is not a good player. A bad passive player is not going to
react to this transparent bet size that way. We expect Villain only to raise
because he improved with the Ac somehow. He might fold because he

42

Hands

totally missed the river. Hopefully though, he will call because it is an

inviting price and he has something he just cannot fold.
Main Pot: $273
Chip Donor

Check/Call

Starting
Stack:
Covers

Hero

$90

$325

(MP1)

(Button)

Range:

A great outcome and nice win for us. While reading the analysis on this
hand you may be thinking to yourself, all of this combo stuff is nice, but I
cannot use it in real-time. The more you practice thinking about ranges
and combos the easier using it in real-time becomes. Practice calculating
combos and thinking about ranges when analyzing your own hands. It gets
easier with practice.

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