Red Chip Poker: Late Position

Range Merging with an Overbet

(Villains flaw)

(Difficulty rating)

(Heros exploit)

The idea behind a bluff is that we are not thinking about the value of our
hand but the next level up: Can Villain be convinced his hand is a loser? A
bluff relies on the assumption that Villain will be able to assign enough
better hands to your range and will come to the conclusion that he normally
would lose money by calling your bet.
The next level of thinking is, Can we find spots where Villain will
conclude that we are bluffing and therefore call, even with a weak hand?
Bluff catching is where you call with a weak hand that can only really beat a
bluff. The key is to recognize that Villain will call with bluff catchers, and
then we value bet our hands that slightly beat that range. This implies that
we will be betting a hand that is normally not bet for value within the player
pool.
$2-$5
Taj
MP2

Image:

Action:

Hand:

Thinking TAG

$20/Call

Starting
Stack:
$540

Button

Hero

$65

Covers

If someone were to sit to my left and re-raise me every time I raise

preflop, they would absolutely destroy me. Most of the time I would fold
until I figured it out and adjusted. Likewise, this thinking TAG will often
fold to a three-bet when out of position. The suited Ace we hold gives us
card removal and equity if called. We would have preferred the TAG to
fold, but we can use our skills and position to win this pot post-flop.
What do we think this Villain has? He almost always enters a pot by
raising pre-flop. So, we can assume he would raise hands like pocket pairs
or strong Broadways rather than limp them.
We expect that the TAG would raise our three-bet with KK+ and
sometimes with QQ or AK. However, there is a small but real chance he
would flat call with QQ+ for deception. The stack sizes are not deep
enough to expect him to set mine with small pairs. That puts his raise-call

56

Hands

range at TT+ and AQ+. A good TAG is not likely to call a three-bet out of
position with easily dominated hands like KQ and AJ.
The chart shows those hands he would raise-fold in grey with the raisecall in white. Of the 184 combinations he raises with pre-flop, he will only
continue with 51 of them. This takes into account our hole cards which
block out the Ace and Three. This yields 72% folds pre-flop. When a player
folds this often against our three-bet, and this three-bet size, the play is
outright profitable.
AA
AK
AQ
AJ
AT
A9
A8
A7
A6
A5
A4
A3
A2

AKs
KK
KQ
KJ
KT
K9
K8
K7
K6
K5
K4
K3
K2

TAGs MP2 raise-call range pre-flop

AQs AJs ATs A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s
KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s
QQ QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s
QJ JJ JTs J9s J8s J7s J6s J5s J4s
QT JT TT T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s
Q9 J9 T9 99 98s 97s 96s 95s 94s
Q8 J8 T8 98 88 87s 86s 85s 84s
Q7 J7 T7 97 87 77 76s 75s 74s
Q6 J6 T6 96 86 76 66 65s 64s
Q5 J5 T5 95 85 75 65 55 54s
Q4 J4 T4 94 84 74 64 54 44
Q3 J3 T3 93 83 73 63 53 43
Q2 J2 T2 92 82 72 62 52 42

A3s
K3s
Q3s
J3s
T3s
93s
83s
73s
63s
53s
43s
33
32

A2s
K2s
Q2s
J2s
T2s
92s
82s
72s
62s
52s
42s
32s
22

We see the flop.

Pot: $137
Thinking TAG

Check

Starting
Stack:
$475

Hero

$75

Covers

(MP2)

(Button)

Range:

This is an interesting flop texture. TAG players tend to be much more

straightforward in three-bet pots. They are fit-or-fold in these situations,
which can lead us to think the following:

57

Red Chip Poker: Late Position

He will fold his Ace high hands.

He will not bluff if we continuation bet.
He may semi-bluff raise with Spades or Tens.
He will not raise hands like JJ or QQ.

It is not hard for his range to be ahead of our dreadful hand. Looking
to Flopzilla, his range is ahead of our hand by a healthy 87% versus 13%.
However, let us look at a different statistic in Flopzilla: How many of his
hand combinations hit this board?

AA
AK
AQ
AJ
AT
A9
A8
A7
A6
A5
A4
A3
A2

KK
KQ
KJ
KT
K9
K8
K7
K6
K5
K4
K3
K2

TAGs hits on:

ATs A9s
KTs K9s
QQ
QTs Q9s
QJ JJ JTs J9s
QT JT TT T9s
Q9 J9 T9 99
Q8 J8 T8 98
Q7 J7 T7 97
Q6 J6 T6 96
Q5 J5 T5 95
Q4 J4 T4 94
Q3 J3 T3 93
Q2 J2 T2 92

A8s
K8s
Q8s
J8s
T8s
98s
88
87
86
85
84
83
82

A7s
K7s
Q7s
J7s
T7s
97s
87s
77
76
75
74
73
72

(45% hits)
A6s A5s A4s
K6s K5s K4s
Q6s Q5s Q4s
J6s J5s J4s
T6s T5s T4s
96s 95s 94s
86s 85s 84s
76s 75s 74s
66 65s 64s
65 55 54s
64 54 44
63 53 43
62 52 42

A3s
K3s
Q3s
J3s
T3s
93s
83s
73s
63s
53s
43s
33
32

A2s
K2s
Q2s
J2s
T2s
92s
82s
72s
62s
52s
42s
32s
22

There is plenty for him to fold on this board. Much of his range, 55%,
is an unhappy AQ or AK without Spades. We bet just over half pot on the
flop. He is not going to be price-sensitive. If we are trying to buy a fold, we
might as well go smaller than the typical 2/3 pot-sized bet. A half-pot sized
bet only needs to work 1/3 of the time to break even. This makes our
continuation bet profitable.
Some actions reduce, but do not eliminate, certain holdings from a
range. This is called discounting. If we think Villain would sometimes do
something, we might only count 75% of the combinations. This would be
called a 25% discount When he only calls, we can discount some of those
slowplayed KK+ combos. His calling range looks to be TT-QQ and AQ+
of Spades. We cannot know with what frequency he would check-raise with

58

Hands

TT, Spades or even KK+. In this hand, we assume he will check-raise TT

and Spades 50% of the time and KK+ 75% of the time. This is important
when factoring weighted combinations into an entire range.
Pot: $287
Thinking TAG

Check

Starting
Stack:
$400

Hero

Check

Covers

(MP2)

(Button)

Range:

There are not a lot of Sixes for either of us to have, so the open-ended
straight draw that filled is not much of a concern for either person. One
thing to consider is how we would play the turn with AA. If we bet with
AA here, is he going to continue with TT+? By betting AA it is difficult to
get value from those worse hands; which would lead us to check the turn
behind more often. This turn is usually going to go check-check.
Versus a thinking player we need to consider what range he would put
us on. If we bet this turn we represent a range that has rare 6x and a
disproportionate amount of bluffs. This would make it easy for our
opponent to react against our bet.
In this exact situation we could actually check most of our range
behind, both bluffs like A3 and value hands like AA. The check in this
exact instance is giving up. But there are times when we will have AA here,
check behind on the turn, and not give up on every river.
Pot: $287
Thinking TAG

Check

Starting
Stack:
$400

Hero

???

Covers

(MP2)

(Button)

Range:

We love the Ace, but our work here is not done. We still have to think
about the TAGs range once he checks to us. When he gets to the river, his
range looks like this:

59

Red Chip Poker: Late Position

,
50%
discount

0% discount

3 combos

12 combos

,
75% discount

50%
discount

1.5 combos

1 combo

(Added to pre-flop KK+

discount)

Now we have to ask ourselves a few questions:

Would he bet the river with AA?
Would he bet the river with AK or AQ of Spades?
Would he bet the river with TT+?
How would he react to any bets or sizes with worse hands?
We can expect a TAG to bet this river if he improved to top set. This
means we can discount AA altogether when he checks. We can likely
discount AK and AQ of Spades, thinking he would bet a strong top pair
once the turn goes check-check.
The other question is, How he would react with the now-second pair
range of TT-KK? It is logical to assume a TAG would treat these hands as
having showdown value and check the river. Some of these combinations
are already discounted given the flop action, but there are still a full 12
combinations of JJ-QQ. These pairs represent a large proportion of his
river checking range that we need to consider before making our river
decision.
Now that we know his range once he checks the river, we have to
figure out if we can value bet. Because the TAG is a thinking player, we
need to consider how he would view a bet. In his games, he is likely used to
seeing players check back with an Ace on these board textures. So a bet
with a single pair on a 4-straight and missed flush board would be a rarity
for him to see, further discounting him putting us on an Ace. If somehow a
player did bet an Ace on the river, the TAG is expecting to see something
close to $175. So if we shove for $400, what does he think we have? Air.
When we make any value bet, we need to represent enough bluffs to
allow our opponent to make mistakes. Oddly enough, we are more likely to
get called by his QQ if we bet $400 than $175, since $175 would rarely be
perceived as a bluff, and $400 looks bluff heavy.
Notice that everything going into this river shove is based upon our
opponents ability to assign ranges, to make assumptions on bet sizing, and
to follow through on his reads in order to call the river with second-best
pairs. Hands like these are not common, but they can provide extra profit.
60

Hands

The better you get at understanding your opponents thought process, and
thought process limitations, the better you will get at exploiting them in
creative ways.
Villain calls and mutters, Nice catch, sir. We all know the translation
of that statement.

61