Asia & Pacific

North Korea announces plan to launch rocket carrying

observation satellite
By Chico Harlan and Brian Murphy February 2

NorthKoreasaidTuesdaythatitplanstolaunchasatellitecarryingrocketassoonasnextweek,amovethatcould
demonstratepotentialprogressinthenationslongrunningmissiontodevelopareliableintercontinentalballisticmissile.
TheNorthgavenoticeofthelaunchwhichitsaidwouldcomebetweenFeb.8andFeb.25inanalerttotheInternational
MaritimeOrganization,agroupresponsibleformaritimesafety.
AlthoughNorthKoreahasdescribeditssatelliteprogramaspeaceful,thelaunchesrelyonlongrangemissiletechnologyand
defysanctionsdesignedtorestrictthecountrysweaponsprogram.Alaunchcomingjustfourweeksafteranunderground
nucleartestwouldsharpenconcernintheWestandacrossAsiathatPyongyangisattemptingtomakeprogressonitsultimate
goaltheabilitytofireoffaminiaturizednuclearwarheadwithanaccurateballisticmissile.
InWashington,theStateDepartmentofficialinchargeofEastAsianaffairs,DanielRussel,saidthepurportedlaunchplans
argueevenmorestronglyfortougherU.N.sanctionsontheNorth.
TheUnitedStateshasledcallsforadditionalmeasuresbytheU.N.SecurityCouncilinresponsetolastmonthsnucleartest,
theNorthsfourthsince2006.ButNorthKoreanleaderKimJongUn,duringhisfouryearsinpower,hasrepeatedlysignaled
thatheiswillingtotestweaponstechnologyindefianceoftheinternationalcommunity.UnderSecurityCouncilresolutions,
theNorthhaslongbeenprohibitedfromlaunchingrocketsusingballisticmissiletechnology.
InanapparentreferencetoChina,Pyongyangsally,whichhasresistedtheexpansionofsanctions,Russelalsosaidthe
plannedrocketlaunchwouldbeanunmistakableslapinthefacetothosewhohavebackedpatienceanddialoguewiththe
Northratherthansanctions.
NorthKoreasofficialnewsagencyhasprovidednodetailsontheplannedlaunch,whichwouldbetheauthoritariannations
fifth,datingbackto1998.Buttheannouncementcameaslittlesurprisetooutsideanalysts:Recentsatelliteimageryhadshown
aflurryofactivityattheNorthslaunchsite,inthenorthwesterncornerofthecountry.
Inrecentyears,theNorthhasusednuclearandmissiletestsasheadlineeventsforpoliticalcelebrations,andsomeexpertssaid
thelatestlaunchcouldserveasashowcaseofmightfortheFeb.16birthdayofformerleaderKimJongIl.Still,thereisno
guaranteeofsuccess:OftheNorthsfivelaunches,onlythemostrecentone,inDecember2012,reachedorbit.Andeventhat

satelliteappearedtomalfunctiondaysorhoursafterreachingspace,saidJonathanMcDowell,anastrophysicistattheHarvard
SmithsonianCenterforAstrophysics.
Ifitworked,itdidntworkforlong,McDowellsaid.
Overthepasttwoyears,NorthKoreahastakenstepstoupgradeitslaunchfacility,extendingthelaunchtowertoaccommodate
higherpoweredrockets.Modelsofalargerrocket,knownasUnha9,havebeendisplayedatvariouseventsacrossthecountry.
YettheNorthstillfacesmanyhurdles,andexpertssaidTuesdaythatthislaunchwouldbetechnologicallysimilartoprevious
ones.PyongyangslatestmaritimenoticesuggeststhatthefirststageoftherocketwillfallintothewatersbetweenSouth
KoreaandChinathesecondstagewillplummeteastofthePhilippines.Thosepotentialdropzoneslookmuchastheydidin
2012suggestingarocketofsimilardesign,expertssaid.
Thislooksverysimilartowhattheydidacoupleyearsago,saidJeffreyLewis,anuclearexpertattheMiddleburyInstitute
ofInternationalStudies.Ultimately,weretalkingaboutanobservationsatellite.Ifitworks,maybetheyllendupwithsome
picturestheyshow.Andifitdoesntwork,theylljustfakesomepictures.
ThereisstillbroaddisagreementamonganalystsandintelligenceexpertsaboutNorthKoreasweaponscapability.For
PyongyangtodirectlythreatentheUnitedStates,itmustbeabletominiaturizeanuclearweaponandhonethetechnology
thatwouldallowarockettoreentertheatmospherefromspace.
In2013,theDefenseIntelligenceAgencysaidthatNorthKoreahadthecapabilitytomountaminiaturizedwarheadonalong
rangemissile,althoughthereliabilityofsuchaweaponwouldbelow.ButDirectorofNationalIntelligenceJamesR.
ClapperJr.quicklyplayeddownthatassessment,sayingthatPyongyanghadnotyetdemonstratedthefullrangeof
capabilitiesnecessaryforanucleararmedmissile.TheNorthitselfhasclaimedthatithastheabilitytocreatesmallnuclear
weaponssuitableformissiles.
AccordingtotheNorth,twoofitsearliestsatellitesfrom1998and2009areinorbit,transmittingrevolutionarysongs.
Expertsdisputethat,sayingthelaunchesfailed.
AfterabotchedlaunchinApril2012,theNorth,inararemomentoftransparency,tolditspeoplethatthesatellitehadfailed
toenterspaceandthatscientistswerelookingintothecause.
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Chico Harlan covers personal economics as part of The Post's financial team.

Brian Murphy joined the Post after more than 20 years as a foreign correspondent and bureau chief for the
Associated Press in Europe and the Middle East. He has reported from more than 50 countries and has
written three books.