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2
administraiei Eln de la mijlocul anilor 1990. Dup cum am descris-o, etatitii
Democrat s combine
Angajamentul fa de un stat puternic, cu retorica de tip occidental
Democraie. Ei au "hold viziunea
Aceast din Rusia au venit pentru a reflecta un hibrid de bazndu-se pe o
combinaie de compromis
Liberalismul de Vest i neo-Nationalismul pentru a produce un discurs sincretic
geopolitic. "
Etatitii Democrat, am continuat, "a se vedea Rusia ca o civilizaie distincte,
diferite de
ITS West n valorile culturale i ngrijorri geopolitice i interesele de securitate
"(p. 487). Ei au vzut
Rusia ca o putere a Eurasiei cu propriile interese i preocupri unic naionale ar
trebui s-l aa
nu fi timid despre afirmarea putere ITS n "vecintatea apropiat". relaiile sale cu
Occidentul ar trebui s fie
condus de pragmatism i de realism, Neith necritic urma reflex Nord-Vest
Opune.
Aceast lucrare reviziteaz argumentele i munca de pionierat de Graham
Smith, n lumina
Modificri n Rusia i n geopolitica la nivel mondial n ultimii cinci ani. Dou
modificri, n special,
sunt frapante. Primul este preedinia lui Vladimir Putin Preedintele rus care a
devenit interimar
Dup demisia lui Boris Eln a preediniei n ziua de Anul Nou n anul 2000. A
continuat s Putin
ctiga alegerile n calitate de preedinte rus n martie 2000 i reales n martie
2004. Putin au
Dominat de centrul politic n Rusia, cu pricepere cracare n jos pe unele dintre
cele mai
ProMinent de oligarhi din ar n timp ce puterea de la Moscova i centralizarea
acumulate
controlul asupra mass-media (Shevtsova, 2003). n alegerile prezideniale din
martie 2004, Putin
A fost reales cu 71% din voturi din primul tur. Cum ai reuit s devin att de
Putin
dominant n viaa politic rus? Smith este o metafora apt Proteus mod de
nelegere
Recursul lui Putin, deoarece Putin este Proteus la mai multe Audiene istorice
geopolitice, purtnd un occidental
Liderii occidentali pentru a masca interne i Westernizers (zapadniki), dar
schimbarea la o "mare putere"
Masca pentru diferite circumscripii Rus interne. n contrast cu Smith, howeve,
am
Susin c discursul de Eurasianism nu este la fel de central n "centrul vital" de
politic rus
3
Viaa aa cum a aprut n 1999. Vom discuta i alte explicaii ale popularitii lui
Putin, dar principalul nostru
ngrijorare n aceast lucrare este de a intelege caracterul evolutiv al culturii
geopolitice ruse ca
tranziia ctre o BTS post-sovietic de identitate rus Introduce-al doilea deceniu.
A doua modificare este transformarea in geopolitica globala aduse de Bush
administraiei ca rspuns la atacurile teroriste asupra World Trade Centre i
Pentagonul la 11 septembrie 2001. Articularea Bush doctrin care a fcut ca n
lume
Termeni maniheist - "eti cu noi sau cu teroritii" - Statele Unite ale Americii de a
avea Urmrite
Politica unilateralist ferm agresive strine i ordinea de zi, rsturnarea guvernelor
dou state (Afganistan i Irak), la sud de Rusia Imediat, trimiterea de consilieri
pentru Combaterea
pe care le consider grupuri internaionale din ntreaga lume Teroritii (inclusiv n
fosta Uniune Sovietic
Republicii Georgia), precum i baze de ITS Stabilirea pentru Trupele din
Krgzstan i Uzbekistan,
In mod traditional parte a Rusiei de zona Asia-Central de influen. Anterioar la
11 septembrie, strine
Dmitri Trenin Analistii politicii externe cum ar fi unul dintre cei doi a lui Putin
Aceast politic ce se caracterizeaz prin WS
pragmatism i deriva, dar nu la alegere strategic (Trenin 2002a).In urma lui
septembrie lui Putin
24, 2001 discurs ctre naiune, n care am semnalat nu numai de Solidaritate al
Rusiei cu
Rzboiul american mpotriva terorismului internaional, dar consimmntul
militar american
nfiinarea n ex-sovietic baze, Trenin i combatant alii care au fcut n Rusia
"Alegere strategic", care urmeaz s fie parte din comunitatea occidental de
state Parchetului Rzboiul mpotriva
"Terorismul internaional" (Trenin 2002b). Administrarea Putin, desigur, au avut
motive, dar
aceast "alegere strategic", care urmeaz s fie parte a apelurilor "civilizaiei
occidentale" n argumentul ntrebarea lui Smith
despre puterea de Eurasianism ca un discurs separate civilizatoare n geopolitice
ruse
cultur (O'Loughlin, Toal i Kolossov 2004a). n timp ce relaiile americano-ruse,
deoarece au oscila
Apoi, ideea de "cale de construcii" (Kurs spetsial'niy) pentru Rusia s-au stins.
4
Aceste evoluii paralele au transpira ca literatura de specialitate privind
geopoliticii critice Sine
s-au extins i deepener. n aceast lucrare, ne revedem i s exploreze teme de
Preocupri ale rusilor obisnuiti "(p. 18). Avnd n vedere realitatea acestui
aparent deconectare, de ce este
C politica extern a administraiei Putin caracterizat prin Are fost n mod
constant de mare
7
Nivelurile de sprijin popular? Rspunsul este concluzia lui O'Loughlin Parial Asta
a fost oarecum
Argumentul lui este supraevaluat Deoarece mai exact c exist un decalaj ntre
geopolitice
fanteziile de "naional-patriotice" dreapta i comunitii - pentru simplicities binar
al Dugin, a
fanteziile militarist al lui Vladimir Jirinovski i Zyuganov de conspiraii grand - i
Preocupri ale rusilor obisnuiti.
Hrtie proprii O'Loughlin ca ilustrat, n cazul lui Putin este diferit.Ne propunem sa
Aceste EXEMPLIFIC diferencias tocmai prin generarea unei analize cluster a
opiniei publice ruse.
Aceste grupuri nu sunt clivajele politice i grupuri de vot; astfel de grupri, pe
baza de
Opiunile sunt uor de identificat publice sondajele de opinie electoral i din
datele de vot. Mai degrab
Raportate n aceast lucrare sunt grupuri Orientri populare geopolitice care leam fost n stare s
Elaborarea unei opinia public naional de la noi efectuate n ancheta din aprilie
2002. Pn n prezent, aa cum suntem
contient, acest lucru este primul grup empiric generat de orientri geopolitice
ruse. Aceste
Mai mult de imaginatia geografice sunt - dac rspunsurile de oameni Ei cred c
Rusia
Eurasianist sau este o stare de Vest, de exemplu - dei Aceste condiii specifice
i s contribuie
Orientri. Mai degrab, ele sunt cel mai bine descrie clusterelor ca orientare
geopolitic, un empiric
instantaneu de un moment istoric particular n fluxul de cultura populara
geopolitice ruse.
O'Loughlin lui (2001) punct-la-hrtie pe element cheie al acestei geopolitice
populare Rus
cultur, i anume c ruii obinuii Multe sunt decuplata de la dezbaterile de
politic extern i de
discuii. (Pentru mai multe detalii despre acest subiect, a se vedea Kolossov
2003a, 2003b). Ca i n Statele Unite ale Americii,
ignorana geopolitic este o parte importanta a culturii populare geopolitice. Nostru
de opinie public
teste de studiu pentru ignoranta geopolitice i ne-am dezvoltat dou scoruri
separate pentru acest
factor. S ne ntoarcem acum a lua n considerare n detaliu anchetei i
geopolitice ase Aceast Orientri
Neutralizarea unele,
Compromiterea cu alii, i de tiere oferte n moduri care au ntrit ceea ce Rus
Comentatorii termenul de "verticalitatea de putere." Antipatic Eln, Putin au o
mult mai puin s demonstreze
toleran de o mass-media independente i s-i afirme controlul wiggle hotrt
n cele dou
de stat posturilor de televiziune i s aduc o treime, independent i critic NTV
Odat, n temeiul
Influena i controlul de stat indirect prin intermediul Gazprom.Acest lucru a
permis Kremlinului de a avea produse i
gestiona imaginea prezideniale din televiziune noapte de noapte, astfel rui
pozitive dezvolte i s menin
imagini de regul istorice. Marea majoritate a ruilor au ncredere n tirile de la
Kremlin, dominat de aceste
reelelor (Petrova, 2004)
O tradiie de regul i paternaliste "acordul de fabricaie" de ctre controlul de
stat asupra
de televiziune nu sunt garani de popularitate ca regimul comunist i soarta lui
Eln Demonstrai.
Conturile treilea factor pentru ca popularitatea lui Putin este ceea ce ruii
termenul de "politic
tehnologii ". Pionier n Occident i Rusia, adus la de ctre consultani politice
care
A lucrat pe Eln re-campaniei electorale din 1996, aceasta este arta de
guvernare prin
Combinat cu politica simbolic observare atenta i urmrire a sondajelor de
opinie.
Imaginea iniial lui Putin de lipsa de claritate a permis Diferitele grupuri de
proiect la valorile lor i
Orientri asupra lui. Lui prima campanie prezidenial pentru STI a fost lipsa rnd
rkable de specificul.
Campania de-al doilea timpul la nceputul anului 2004, am acionat n mod
similar. Doar dup februarie Lui
discurs n Universitatea de Stat din Moscova, unde am par a fi liberal (McGregor,
2004), am mers la
Marea Barents, n cazul n care, am observat purtarea Manevrele marina
uniform a
14
Comandantul-ef i a anunat de Dezvoltare Strategic a unei arme noi, astfel
rolul de semnalizare a potenialului militar al Rusiei n echilibrarea lume structura
vizelor geopolitice
vis de Statele Unite ale Americii.
n Lui Primii ani prezidenial, Putin a spa un curs de mijloc pentru a pilota ntre
antiPoveti de vest a comunitilor i patrioi naionale, pe de o parte, i proWestern reformatori liberale i scenarii de cosmopolii pe de alt parte. n timp ce
lui Putin 24
WS septembrie 2001 a reprezentat discursul "alegere strategic", ca istoric al
siding cu Occidentul n
rzboiul mpotriva terorismului prin Comentatorii (a se vedea O'Loughlin,
Tuathail i Kolossov, 2004a),
Orientri geopolitice gsite n sondajul nostru arat capacitatea sa de a agresiv
Acest sprijin
Rzboiul American-a condus "mpotriva terorismului internaional" politice au
limite. Lui Putin pentru avizare
mpotriva atacului american n Afganistan sub regimul taliban nu a fost urmat de
ctre public
sprijin pentru rzboiul mpotriva Irakului lui Saddam Hussein.Studiul nostru a
constatat publice Copleitor
Aceast opoziie la rzboi (69,2% si cu siguranta disapporove anse) Extinderea
la rzboi i la
alti doi membri ai lui George Bush "ax a rului", Coreea de Nord i Iran (10,5%
i 14,5%
respectiv). n timp ce mpotrivitor Aceste grupuri ar putea s-l (dou i ase,
26,5% din totalul eantionului)
Au fost relativ clar, congealing celor patru alte grupuri n sprijinul public susinute
pentru
Politicii sale de politic extern strin care necesit distanta de la beligeran de
Bush
administrare.
Aceasta este exact traiectoria politic extern au condus Putin a urmat studiului
nostru,
schimbtoare mti pe probleme de politic extern Diverse, la o dat prooccidental nc de asemenea, o "rus Mare"
Sprijinirea o strategie de geo-economic capitalist i n timp ce de asemenea,
reforme de reinere Liberalizarea la
ngrijorare cu Dezvoltare geopolitice n Asia Central i Caucaz.(Marcu Putin
prima aniversare de la 11 septembrie 2001 de ctre Ameninarea cu preemptive
ceceni Rzboiul mpotriva
"Teroritii" n Georgia). Fac apel pentru niveluri mai mari de investiii strine
directe, coasta de asemenea nc
15
la puterea de interne complexului militar-industrial, am abonat la liberale
occidentale
valori i a "statului de drept", dar de asemenea, lui hard-line a continuat rzboiul
din Cecenia, i am pozat
un aliat american n rzboiul mpotriva terorismului, n timp ce condamna U. S.
Politici n Orientul Mijlociu
(Irak i Palestina / Israel) (Kryshtanovskaya 2002).
Geopolitice Orientri geopolitice i tradiiilor ruseti
Cum geopolitice populare identificate n orientrile sondajul nostru se refer la
mai mult
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we build on the work of Graham Smith who was developing
a critical geopolitics
of Russia in his posthumous paper of 1999 published in this journal. Like
Smith, we link the
evolving geopolitical orientations of Russia to the search for a post-Soviet
identity for the new
state and its political leadership. While Smith saw the nature of Russian
geopolitics to have
Protean masks, our argument is that it is the leadership of the Russian
state, specifically
President Putin, who has successfully adopted a Protean strategy to
appeal to the disparate
elements of the Russian geopolitical spectrum. Based on a nationwide
survey in Spring 2002,
we identify six clusters in Russian public opinion by socio-demographic
characteristics and we
relate each cluster to the main geopolitical orientations competing in
contemporary Russia as
reflected in the results of the 2003 Duma and 2004 Presidential elections
in Russia.
Key words: Russia, critical geopolitics, public opinion, geopolitical
orientations, Vladimir Putin,
elections
1
In the last article before his untimely death, published in this journal in
1999, Graham Smith
pioneered the development of a critical geopolitics perspective on Russian
geopolitical thinking.
Smiths article made three important arguments. First, he connected the
shifting reformulations
found in Russian foreign policy in the 1990s to a more systematic crisis of
national identity in
Russia (Smith 1999a, 481). Smith understood that geopolitics was more
than elite foreign policy
discourse; it was also about the identity of Russia and its place in the
world after the collapse of
the Soviet homeland and the loss of great power status. It involved
politics and public opinion.
His reasoning parallels other works that connect geopolitics to national
identity (e.g. Dijkink,
1996; Neumann, 1999). National identity is shaped by political elites and
it does not exist
separate from political discourse and political struggle and, therefore,
cannnot be static or
eternal (Zevelev, 2002).
Secondly, Smiths 1999 article outlined the emergence of a new
Eurasianism in Russia
are salient. The first is the presidency of Vladimir Putin who became
interim Russian President
after Boris Yeltsins resignation of the presidency on New Years Day in
2000. Putin went on to
win election as Russian president in March 2000 and re-election in March
2004. Putin has
dominated the political centre in Russia, skillfully cracking down on some
of the most
prominent of the countrys oligarchs while centralizing power in Moscow
and accumulated
control over the mass media (Shevtsova, 2003). In the presidential
election of March 2004, Putin
was re-elected with 71% of the first-round vote. How has Putin managed
to become so
dominant in Russian political life? Smiths Proteus metaphor is an apt way
of understanding
Putins appeal since Putin is Proteus to his multiple geopolitical audiences,
wearing a Western
mask to Western leaders and domestic Westernizers (zapadniki) but
changing to a great power
Russian mask for different domestic constituencies. In contradistinction to
Smith, however, we
argue that the discourse of Eurasianism is not as central to the vital
centre of Russian political
3
life as it appeared in 1999. We discuss other explanations of Putins
popularity but our main
concern in this paper is to understand the evolving nature of Russian
geopolitical culture as the
transition to a post-Soviet Russian identity enters its second decade.
The second change is the transformation in global geopolitics brought on
by the Bush
administrations response to the terrorist attacks against the World Trade
Centre and the
Pentagon on 11 September 2001. Articulating a Bush Doctrine that
rendered the world in
Manichean terms youre with us or with the terrorists the United
States has pursued a
strongly unilateralist and aggressive foreign policy agenda, overthrowing
the governments of
two states (Afghanistan and Iraq) to the immediate south of Russia,
sending advisors to fight
groups it considers international terrorists across the world (including in
the former Soviet
Republic of Georgia), and establishing bases for its troops in Kyrgyzstan
and Uzbekistan,
traditionally part of Russias Central Asian zone of influence. Previous to
September 11, foreign
policy analysts like Dmitri Trenin argued that Putins foreign policy was
characterized by
pragmatism and drift but not a strategic choice (Trenin 2002a). In the
wake of Putins September
24, 2001 speech to the nation in which he signaled not only Russian
solidarity with the
American war against international terrorism but acquiescence of the
American military
establishment in former Soviet bases, Trenin and others argued that
Russia had made a
strategic choice to be part of the Western community of states
prosecuting a war against
international terrorism (Trenin 2002b). The Putin administration, of
course, had its motives but
this strategic choice to be part of Western civilization calls into question
Smiths argument
about the power of Eurasianism as a separate civilizational discourse in
Russian geopolitical
culture (O'Loughlin, Toal and Kolossov 2004a). While US-Russian relations
have oscillated since
then, the idea of a special path (spetsialniy kurs) for Russia has faded.
4
These parallel developments have transpired as the literature on critical
geopolitics itself
has expanded and deepened. In this paper, we revisit and explore Smiths
themes by first
reviewing some of this literature and developing a clarified conceptual
apparatus to study
geopolitics. We then seek empirically to examine the relationship between
Russian geopolitical
discourse and changing conceptions of national identity by looking at
popular Russian attitudes
in the wake of 9/11. Drawing upon a national public opinion survey we
conducted in Russia in
April 2002, we use answers to questions about Russias place in the world
and the nature of USRussian
relations after 9/11 to identify orientation clusters in Russian geopolitical
culture. We
briefly sketch a profile of six distinct clusters that emerged from the
answers to the survey
questions. Part three elaborates Putins protean qualities as a politician
and discusses some
factors accounting for his popularity in the light of the main electoral
developments on the
Russian political scene.
CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS AND RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICAL CULTURE.
In a bid to clarify the proliferating and sometimes competing terminology
associated with the
Their level of geopolitical ignorance is very high (74.7% more than the
average), measured by
an inability to identify any world region as important for Russia and
declarations that they have
little interest in foreign policy. Whilst consistently opposing the US war on
terrorism, they are
concerned about terrorism and are the only group to accept unequivocally
the Putin equation of
the 9-11 attacks with the bombings of apartment buildings in Russian
cities in the autumn of
1999. They want to recreate the close relations of the former Soviet
republics, both Slavic and
Muslim. Respondents in this group are disproportionately elderly,
pensioners, poorlyeducated,
rural residents and female.
Based on the identifications of clustering of similar respondents into
geopolitical
orientations, we now turn to two related questions. First, we examine the
popularity of Putin
given the political context of these geopolitical orientations. Clearly
Putins popularity in early
2004 is a result of a myriad of factors, both personal and structural. Our
examination of his
appeal is driven not so much by personal political elements but by a focus
on the structural
characteristics of the Russian political system in which questions of
national identity, Russias
place in the world political system, and the evolving nature of Russian
geopolitical
imaginations play prominent roles. Second, we examine the relationship of
these geopolitical
12
orientations to the contemporary geopolitical traditions characterizing
Russian high geopolitical
culture. Returning to the nature of geopolitical critique, as summarized in
Figure 1, we use the
Russian example to show how the orientations evident in our empirical
clusters are connected
to long-standing traditions that have been the subject of deep debate in
the Russian public and
intellectual spheres (Smith, 1999b; Ingram, 2001).
THE MASKS OF PUTIN.
Contrary to Smiths argument in his 1999 article, we argue that it is not
Russian geopolitical
traditions, like Eurasianism, that have Protean masks. Rather, in
contemporary Russia, it is
policy-makers who wear different masks that are activated in the political
arena. Foremost
the American attack against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan was not
followed up by public
support for the war against Saddam Husseins Iraq. Our survey found
overwhelming public
opposition to that war (69.2% mostly and definitely disapporove) and to
extending war to the
other two members of George Bushs axis of evil, North Korea and Iran
(10.5% and 14.5%
respectively). While those clusters likely to oppose him (two and six,
26.5% of the total sample)
were relatively clear, the congealing of the four other clusters into
sustained public support for
his foreign policy requires that foreign policy be distanced from the
belligerence of the Bush
administration.
This is precisely the trajectory Putin led foreign policy followed after our
survey,
shifting foreign policy masks on various issues, at once pro-Western yet
also a great Russian,
supporting a geo-economic strategy and capitalist liberalizing reforms
whilst also retaining a
concern with geopolitical development in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
(Putin marked the
first anniversary of September 11th 2001 by threatening a preemptive war
against Chechen
terrorists in Georgia). He called for greater levels of foreign direct
investment, yet also shored
15
up the strength of the domestic military-industrial complex; he subscribed
to Western liberal
values and the rule of law but also continued his hard-line war in
Chechnya; and he posed as
an American ally in the war against terrorism, while condemning US
policies in the Middle East
(Iraq and Palestine/Israel) (Kryshtanovskaya 2002).
GEOPOLITICAL ORIENTATIONS AND RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICAL
TRADITIONS
How do the popular geopolitical orientations identified in our survey relate
to the more
formalized traditions of Russian geopolitical culture? While there are
connections, there is no
direct correlation. Russian geopolitics has long been a high culture affair
of elites competing to
dominate an autocratic state with a weak culture of popular geopolitics
that received little
attention until recently. It is now becoming apparent that some
longstanding Russian
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Married +8.1
Worker +8.2
Low educational level +13.0
2
Highest Educational Level +7.7
Muslim +7.5
Oblast capital +7.9
Rural residence +12.9
Single +6.9
Pensioners -14.0 +21.6
Western
liberals
Democrats
Western
liberal
Western
liberal
Russia is a
European
country; her
borders coinicide
with her political
borders
The world is increasingly
interdependent, culturally and
politically diverse, but the West is on
its focus. Key players are cultures that
maintain a diversity of economic and
political institutions within which they
negotiate the respect of human rights
through the existing institutions
To find an
appropriate
culturesensitive
path
to reach world
economic and
national
security;
Liberal
parliamentary
democracy
Russias
backwardness;
external economic
threats; violation of
basic human rights
and disrespect for
cultural pluralism
4
Democratsstatists
Realpolit
ik
Russia is a great
power or a big
regional power
located in both
Europe and Asia;
it should
strengthening her
statehood within
her actual
borders and
contribute to
integration of at
least of a part of
the post-Soviet
space
The world is not inherently hostile, but
it does consist of selfish power-seeking
state actors whose interests must be
balanced. The main Russias mission is
to maintain political and military
balance in the Eurasia (the post-Soviet
space) and keeping here political
stability but without a formal control
and the use of force.
To maintain
historical
contacts with
the West but to
develop
actively also
relations with
Asian
countries. To
remain an
independent
civilization
and to be
capable of
resisting
hegemonic
ambitions
anywhere in
the world
Democracy
taking into
account
national
cultural and
historical
traditions
External threats from
unstable regions;
economic theats;
cultural threats to
national identity and
sovereignty,
Statists and
NeoEurasianists
Neo-Communists Marxism Russia is a
unique Eurasian
civilization
which naturally,
historically and
economically
embraces most
post-Soviet space
The international system is bipolar and
determined by a struggle between the
5
Radicals expansionists
Russia is a great
Eurasian empire;
today borders are
artificial
The international system is bipolar and
divided by a struggle for territory; the
key players are empires that expand
their spheres of influence
Russia is an
independent
civilization an
independent
civilization
and a landbased
empire.
Russias
interests are
mutually
exclusive with
the interests of
themaritime
civilization;
the only way
to survive is
constant
expansion in
union with
different allies,
including in
Europe
An
authoritarian
regime with
the strong role
of the state in
all fields of
social life
The main threats
come from sea-based
powers and their
ideology
Russianists Isolationists
Russian
ethnic
nationali
sm
Russia is a great
power
The world consists of selfish powerseeking
state actors with conflicting
interests; the external environment is
hostile
Russia is an
independent
civilization large nationstate
seeking
to keep its
sovereignty
and cultural
uniqueness
Political
regime with
the strong role
of the state
Threats to national
security have a
systemic character
and are both external
and internal
The table is compiled with the use of arguments developed by Smith, 1999b; Kolossov
and Mironenko, 2001; Ts ygankov, 2003.