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=((
))/
DONDE:
Y1 = razon de crecimiento
Xi = poblacion
CRECIMIENTO ARITMETICO
Los valores de XI e Yi varian linealmente
=+
Donde:
+ (()/) - ((
= )/=
)=
a(()/) +b(()/) "(" ()=/=
)=
Donde:
CRECIMIENTO GEOMETRICO
Los valores de Xi e Yi varian EXPONENCIALMENTE segn :
y = A + BX
Donde:
+ (()/) ( (
=
)/=
)=
A+ B (( )/
()) - ((
)/()) = 0
a = 10A
b= /
A+ B ((
)/
()) - ((
)/()) = 0
a = 10A
b= /
AO
1
2
3
1,990
2,000
2,010
Promedio
POBLACION
Xi
10,560
12,145
13,927
36,632
12,211
RAZON DE
CRESIMECENTO Yi (%)
15.01
14.67
29.68
9.89
a=
b=
4.9
2.17E-04
=+
Yi=4.84+0.000217Xi
segn el crecimiento geometrico
A
B
0.5
2.30E-05
a
b
3.16
5.30E-05
Yi = 0.52e^(5.30E-05Xi)
AOS DESPUES
DEL ULTIMO
CENSO
0
40
Aritmetico
P2040
POBLACION
ARITMETICO
GEOMETRICO
ARITMETICO
13,927
15,030
13,927
14,848
7.92
8.16
15,030
hab
14,848
hab
Geometrico
P2040
LogYi
1.1764
1.1665
Xi^2
1.12E+08
1.48E+08
XiYi
158,500.00
178,200.00
XiLogYi
12,422.42
14,167.27
2.3429
0.7810
2.59E+08
8.63E+07
7,070.72
336,700.00
112,233.33
26,589.68
8,863.23
0.73
=+
+ (()/) - ((
= )/=
)=
a(()/) +b(()/) "(" ()=/=
)=
1,990
2,000
2,010
INCREMENTO
POR DECADA
ARITMETICO
GEOMETRICO
6.61
6.94
1,103
1,227
921
1,031
10,560
12,145
13,927
1
1
12,211
7.07E+03
A
B
-1.3756408586 2.37564086
0.0001945546 -0.00019455
-12190.8942964
1.7242402029
1
12,211
12,211
8.63E+07
-1.3756408586 0.00019455
0.0001945546 -1.593E-008
)=/=
)=
-16775.6564714
2.3738526265
a
b
8,863.23
0.72585947
12,211
112,233.33
las ecuaciones :
Y a 0 a1 X a 2 X
AO
1,990
2,000
2,010
SUMA
POBLACION
10,560
12,145
13,927
36,632
6704
X
-1
0
1
0
X^2
1
0
1
2
a3 X 3
X^3
-1
0
1
0
X^4
1
0
1
2
3 * a 0 0 * a1 2 * a 2 0 * a 3 0
344 0 * a 0 2 * a1 0 * a 2 2 * a 3 0
4522
2 * a 0 0 * a1 2 * a 2 0 * a 3 0
344 0 * a 0 2 * a1 0 * a 2 2 * a 3 0
a0
a1
a2
a3
12,145
86
79
86
f(a0,a1,a2,a3 -29889.0031
g(a0,a1,a2,a3 0.0011921
h(a0,a1,a2,a3-19926.0031
i(a0,a1,a2,a3) 0.0011921
Y=
1290398110
la ecuacion sera:
Y = 22639.37 + 2691.30X+84.55X^2-4.828X^3
para el ano en que queramos diseo la poblacion
2040
x =4
Y na a X a X a X 0
XY a X a X a X a X 0
YX a X a X a X a X 0
YX a X a X a X a X 0
2
a3 0
a3 0
* a3 0
a3 0
X^6
1
0
1
2
X^5
-1
0
1
0
XY
-10560
0
13927
3,367
YX^2
10560
0
13927
24,487
YX^3
-10560
0
13927
3,367
Ao
= (
2040
+1
)/(
+1
=0+ ( 0)
Ao
1,990
2,000
2,010
Poblacion (hab)
10,560
12,145
13,927
r (hab/ao)
r=
P=
7060.5
hab
158.5
178.2
168.35
1,990
2,000
2,010
10,560
12,145
13,927
= (
+1
)/( (+1 ))
=0 [1+(0)]
AO
1,990
2,000
2,010
2,040
POBLACION (hab)
10,560
12,145
13,927
20,128
Pi+1-Pi
Pi(ti+1 - ti)
1,585
1,782
105,600
121,450
r=
r (hab/ao)
0.01501
0.01467
0.01484
a Ln S 1
P0
Ps
P0 ( PS P1
P1 ( PS P0 )
b Ln
2 P0 P1 P2 P12 P0 P2
P0 P2 P12
CUMPLE
NO CUMPLE
P0 P2 2P1
AO
P0
P1
P2
POBLACION (HAB)
1990
2000
2010
10,560
12,145
13,927
POBLACION SATURADA =
a=
b=
91,568
2.037
-0.160
HAB.
0.742
-0.871
2001
2009
t
1.1
1.9
a+bt
-0.216
-0.913
quidistantes
BLACION (hab)
=0
=((
)&(+1
(0)
AO
1,990
2,000
2,010
2,040
POBLACION (hab)
10,560
12,145
13,927
20,128
t AOS
10
10
PROMEDIO( r)
=((
)&(+1)/)
+1
r
1.014
1.214
1.114
1.114
1.114
= 2++
AO
1,990
2,000
2,010
2,040
CALCULANDO :
A=
B=
C=
POBLACION PARA
EL AO 2040
SERA
POBLACION (HAB)
10,560
12,145
13,927
1
1
10560
12605
2++
T aos
0
10
20
f(A,B,C)=
g(A,B,C)=
h(A,B,C)=
0
-1492
-3023
11364565
hab
= (
)
+1
)/(+1
para el ao 2040
2040
=0+(0)
Ao
1,990
2,000
2,010
P=
18,978
Poblacion (hab)
10,560
12,145
13,927
hab
r (hab/ao)
158.5
178.2
168.35
Metodo
Metodo
Metodo
Metodo
Metodo
Metodo
Metodo
Metodo
hab