MGT 3332 Operations & Supply Chain Management Sample Test I Name

Show All Work, Box Final Answers.

Part I- T/F and Multiple Choice Section (not provided in sample test)

In addition to the problems below, you need to know how to calculate efficiency and utilization,
break even analysis, productivity, capacity in number of machine, weighted moving average, and
multiple linear regression analysis based on Excel output.
Part II Problems (60 points)

1- (12 pts.) The following equation summarizes the trend projection of quarterly sales of condos
over a long cycle. Sales exhibit seasonal variation. Using the information given, prepare
seasoned forecast of sales for each quarter of next year (not this year).

Ft = 40 6.5 t + 2 t2
Where:
Ft = Unit sales
t = 0 at first quarter of last year
Seasonality: Q1 = 1.1, Q2 = 1.0, Q3 = 0.60, Q4 = 1.3
2-

(16 points) Consider the following Sales data.

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Month
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.

Sales
19
18
20
24
25
27
30

a- What is the nave forecast for September?

b- Find 3-month and 6-month moving averages for September.

c- Find exponential forecast for September if the forecast for June was 27.
d- Using regression function of your calculator, find the linear trend projection equation and calculate
forecasts for September and October.

3- (8 pts.) Given the following error of a forecast, find MAD, MSE, and S. Also determine if the error is
under control using 2S control limits.

Errors = -4, 2, -3, 5, -3, 0, 1, -2, -3, 4, 5

MSE =

MAD =

S=

2S Control limit = (

4- (16 points) Consider the following data on Price and demand for a given product.

Price (X)
6.00
6.50
6.75
7.00
7.25
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.25

Demand (Y)
200
190
188
180
170
162
160
156
140
132

a- Find the regression equation to predict demand using your calculator.

b- Using the above equation, forecast demand if price is $9.75.

c-

What price must be set if demand of 220 is set by the capacity.

d-

What is the correlation coefficient for this regression model? What is the interpretation?

e- What percentage of variation in demand is contributed to variation in price? Explain.

5- (8 pts.) Compute the seasonal relatives for this data using SA method.

Quarter

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

1
2
3
4

12
16
12
15

13
20
16
19

17
28
18
25

14
24
18
21

Seasonalit
y