Assignment Law of Large Numbers

Odds Are in Whos Favor?

Preparation - Hypothesis & Setup

o We are running a simulation of randomized numbers through Excel to
try and determine whether the more spins of roulette wheel will or will
not bring the percentage of winnings closer to the probability which is
attached to the roulette wheel already. The factors that may affect the
overall outcome, includes the fact that every single student in the
class will get different answers seeing as the random-function in Excel
completely randomizes responses; much like a roulette wheel would.
This makes the study a very good population of data seeing as it will
be randomized. The size of the experiment will be in several sets. We
will run the wheel ten times for ten spins, ten times for one hundred
spins, ten times for one thousand spins, and ten times for ten
thousand spins; all with even bets in order to get a large set of data
and have a more comprehensive outcome. The probability of winning
in with these conditions is 47% rounded to the nearest whole number.
I believe the outcome of the experiment will be that the more times
the wheel is turned with each incremental increase, our odds will
increase allowing us to win more times. The response variable will be
whether we win or not, and how many times we win within the set of
data.
Experiment
Conduct the Experiment: The experiment was done within Excel on February
16, 2016. This was accomplished with the function which Brother Grimm
provided (=RAND()), as well as with the if function (=IF(Bx<=Ax, 1, 0)).
These functions determine the amount of times one would win under each of
the sub-calculations.
Teach One Another Show Your Data
47.37%
Number of Trials
Probabil
10,00
ity
10
100
1,000
0
6
39
426 4,298
4
43
435 4,247
5
37
439 4,235
6
39
417 4,257
5
40
420 4,275
6
42
449 4,232
2
42
431 4,287
3
46
426 4,268
7
38
449 4,336
8
42
425 4,271
Percentage of
Winning

13.68
%

10.74
%

11.36
%

Copy right 2014; Craig Grimm All Rights Reserved

11.24
%

Page 1

Assignment Law of Large Numbers

The above table is a calculation of how many times we won the roulette
wheel given the number of trials attempted, as well as the percentage of the
spins that we were winning.

Conclusion:
o When the claim initially made was put to the test through the
experiment, the outcome was somewhat supportive. Because of the
complete randomized nature of the study; the outcomes too are
completely randomized. However, the results given generally
remained relatively close to each other. Based on the data collected
from this experiment, it is my conclusion that should this test continue
to go on, the closer the results would get to closer to the determined
probability of the entire population of results. Some of the flaws of the
experiment include, but are not limited to: the number of tests, or
attempts are not as extensive as they could be to show better results.
If I were to run this test a second time, I would include 100,000 and
then more spins of the roulette wheel in order to better examine
through a scatter-plot chart the outcome that occurs, given the law of
large numbers. Seeing how close we could come to our probability and
how long it would take to reach it would be interesting. The amount of
time it would take to get to that point is insightful to me, as it shows
how much money I would have to waste in Vegas, in order to even
reach the probability of winning. Viva Lost Wages is the theme of this
experiment.
PONDER: This experiment taught me several things. Firstly, I did not know
about the Law of Large Numbers nor did I know that the more times an
experiment is run, the closer to the probability the outcome gets. I think that
this assignment was given, not only because it is required material for the
class, but also to show us as students and members of the LDS Church that
gambling really is a death trap. We ran the experiment a rather large amount
of times and still didnt hit our probability of winning. It would take much
more attempts to win at the given probability. What this tells me is that the
general authorities are right in discouraging gambling. It is most definitely a
trap and causes many players to lose more than, or all of what they came
with. I thought this was a very interesting experiment.

Copy right 2014; Craig Grimm All Rights Reserved

Page 2