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Prognoza traficului rutier

Pentru 3 zone (localitati) se cunosc:


1)Relatiile actuale de traffic T_ij^2010
2)- Coeficientii de evolutie Ri si Rj pentru

N.o. =
tab.1
Zone
A
B
C

Se modifica d
Mai usor

Ri ; Rj
1.2
1.3
1.4

Tij
TAB=500+20*N
TBA=2500+10*N
TCA=3000+15*N

520
2510
3015

Metoda coeficientului mediu :


RA =
RB =
RC =

A(e)

1.2
1.3
1.4

OBS:

A(a)

B(a)

TAB*2010 =

B(e)

TBA*2010 =

2510

C(e)

TCA*2010 =

3015

TCB*2010 =

_(A(a))^2010=Z_(A(a))^2010=

5525

_(B(a))^2010=Z_(B(a))^2010=

ITERATIA I
Tij^p=((Ri+Rj)/2)*Tij^p2010
A(a)

B(a)

A(e)

TAB^p=((RA+RB)/2)*TAB^2010

B(e)

TBA^p=((RB+RA)/2)*TBA^2010

3137.5

C(e)

TCA^p=((RC+RA)/2)*TCA^2010

3919.5

TCB^p=((RC+RB)/2)*TCB^2010

_(A(a))^I=Z_(A(a))^I=

7057

_(B(a))^I=Z_(B(a))^I=

Corectia coeficientilor de evolutie pentru prima iteratie :


RA(e)^I = (A(e)^2010/A(e)^I)*RA =

0.9304

RB(e)^I = (B(e)^2010/B(e)^I)*RB =

1.0165

RC(e)^I = (C(e)^2010/C(e)^I)*RC =

1.0632

RA(a)^I = (A(a)^2010/A(a)^I)*RA =

0.9395

RB(a)^I = (B(a)^2010/B(a)^I)*RB =

0.9815

RC(a)^I = (C(a)^2010/C(a)^I)*RC =

1.0632

ITERATIA II
Tij^p=((Ri^I+Rj^I)/2)*Tij^p
A(a)
A(e)

B(a)

TAB^p=((RA^I+RB^I)/2)*TAB^p

B(e)

TBA^p=((RB^I+RA^I)/2)*TBA^P

3054.253

C(e)

TCA^p=((RC^I+RA^I)/2)*TCA^P

3907.112

TCB^p=((RC^I+RB^I)/2)*TCB^P

_(A(a))^II=Z_(A(a))^II=

6961.365

_(B(a))^II=Z_(B(a))^II=

Corectia coeficientilor de evolutie pentru a doua iteratie :

N=

RA(e)^II = (A(e)^I/A(e)^II)*RA^I =

0.9432

RB(e)^II = (B(e)^I/B(e)^II)*RB^I =

0.9928

RC(e)^II = (C(e)^I/C(e)^II)*RC^I =

1.0510

RA(a)^II = (A(a)^I/A(a)^II)*RA^I =

0.9524

RB(a)^II = (B(a)^I/B(a)^II)*RB^I =

0.9587

RC(a)^II = (C(a)^I/C(a)^II)*RC^I =

1.0509

n=-1+0.5*N =

Folosind modelele pentru circulatia rutiera:

1
2

-0.5
modelul general
mod. Exponential
mod. Parabolic
mod. Liniar

Diagrama vitezei relative in functie de densitatea


diagrama debitului relativ in functie de densitatea
Se va considera densitatea relativa k/kj, variind din 0.1 in 0.1, cu exceptia
debitului = 1, unde se va considera variatia k/kj cu rata d
N = 7-16
kVfkmkj-

-------

n=-1+0.5*N =
densitatea circulatie
viteza de circulatie libera
densitatea optima ( nr de vehicule maxim/km)
densitatea de blocaj kj=50-66 veh/km

Metoda FRATAR
A(a)
A(e)

B(a)
TAB*2010 =

B(e)

TBA*2010 =

2510

C(e)

TCA*2010 =

3015

_(A(a))^2010=Z_(A(a))^2010=

5525

0
TCB*2010 =

_(B(a))^2010=Z_(B(a))^2010

A(a)

B(a)

C(a)

Tij

A(e)

520

2010

2530

B(e)

2510

1020

3530

C(e)

3015

1515

4530

A(a)

B(a)

C(a)

Tij

A(e)

592.7

1692.2

2284.9

B(e)

3079.5

1460.1

4539.6

C(e)

4099.2

2230.9

6330.1

R'A(e)=
R'B(e)=
R'C(e)=

0.9432
0.9928
1.0510

Metoda general n>-1

Q=k*Vf*[1-(k/kj)^(n+1)/2]
Vm=[(n+1)/(n+3)]*Vf
Q/(Vm*kf)=((n+3)/(n+1)]*(k/kf)*[1-(k/kf)^(n+1)/2]
V/Vm= ((n+3)/(n+1)]*[1-(k/kf)^(n+1)/2]
km=[(n+3)/2]^(-2/(n+1))*kj

k/kf

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

V/Vm

2.19

1.66

1.36

1.10

0.88

Q/(Vm*kf)

0.22

0.33

0.41

0.44

0.44

Metoda exponential n=-1


Q = k*Vm*[ln(kj/k)]
V=Q/k
Q/(Vm*kj)=(k/kj)*[ln(kj/k)]
V/Vm=ln(kj/k)
km=kj/l

k/kf

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.36

0.4

V/Vm

2.30

1.61

1.20

1.02

0.92

Q/(Vm*kf)

0.23

0.32

0.36

0.37

0.37

Metoda parabolic n=0


Q = k*Vf*[1-(kj/k)^0.5]
V=Q/k
Q/(Vm*kj)=3*(k/kj)*[1-(kj/k)0.5]
V/Vm=3*(1-(kj/k)^0.5)
km=4*kj/9

k/kf

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.36

0.4

V/Vm

2.05

1.66

1.36

1.20

1.10

Q/(Vm*kf)

0.21

0.33

0.41

0.43

0.44

Metoda liniar n=1

Q = k*Vf*[1-(kj/k)]
V=Q/k
Q/(Vm*kj)=2*(k/kj)*[1-(kj/k)]
V/Vm=2*(1-(kj/k))
km=kj/2

k/kf

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.36

0.4

V/Vm

1.80

1.60

1.40

1.28

1.20

Q/(Vm*kf)

0.18

0.32

0.42

0.46

0.48

V/Vm

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
Model general

0.1

Q/(Vm*kj)

0.60

0.50

0.2

0.3

Model exponential

0.4

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00
0

0.1

0.2
Model general

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Model exponential

0.3

cului rutier

traffic T_ij^2010 pentru autoturisme ;


tie Ri si Rj pentru anul de perspective (p);

Se modifica doar N.o. restul se obtine automat!!!


Mai usor decat atata nu cred ca se poate !!!
Tij
TAC=2000+10*N
TBC=1000+20*N
TCB=1500+15*N

2010
1020
1515

Date valabile doar pentru grupa 3412 anul IV CFDP 2009-2010 !!!
Pentru alte date modifica tab.1

B(a)

C(a)
520

0
1515
2035

B(a)

TAC*2010 =

2010

_(A(e))^2010=Q_(A(e))^2010=

TBC*2010 =

1020

_(B(e))^2010=Q_(B(e))^2010=

0
_(C(a))^2010=Z_(C(a))^2010=

C(a)

_(C(e))^2010=Q_(C(e))^2010=

3030

650
0
2045.25
2695.25

TAC^p=((RA+RC)/2)*TAC^2010

2613

_(A(e))^I=Q_(A(e))^I=

TBC^p=((RB+RC)/2)*TBC^2010

1377

_(B(e))^I=Q_(B(e))^I=

0
_(C(a))^I=Z_(C(a))^I=

_(C(e))^I=Q_(C(e))^I=

3990

prima iteratie :

B(a)

C(a)
632.75371

0
2126.8033
2759.557

TAC^p=((RA^I+RC^I)/2)*TAC^p

2604.741

_(A(e))^II=Q_(A(e))^II=

TBC^p=((RB^I+RC^I)/2)*TBC^P

1431.907

_(B(e))^II=Q_(B(e))^II=

0
_(C(a))^II=Z_(C(a))^II=

_(C(e))^II=Q_(C(e))^II=

4036.648

a doua iteratie :

modelul general
mod. Exponential
mod. Parabolic
mod. Liniar

n>-1
n=-1
n=0
n=1

functie de densitatea relativa (k/kj)


functie de densitatea relativa k/kj
0.1 in 0.1, cu exceptia zonei corespunzatoare
variatia k/kj cu rata de 0.01.

-0.5

rculatie
atie libera
vehicule maxim/km)
j=50-66 veh/km

kj=

B(a)
TAB*2010 =

60

veh/km

C(a)
520

TAC*2010 =

2010

_(A(e))^2010=Q_(A(e))^2010=

0
TCB*2010 =

(a))^2010=Z_(B(a))^2010=

TBC*2010 =
1515
2035

0
_(C(a))^2010=Z_(C(a))^2010=

Tij*Rij
1846.9
2753.4
3669.3

C1=
0.73
C2=
0.78
C3=
0.81

Tij*Rij
3130.3
5765.3
7849.3

C1=
1.37
C2=
1.27
C3=
1.24

(n+1)/2]
)/2]

24.58

1020

veh/km

_(B(e))^2010=Q_(B(e))^2010=

_(C(e))^2010=Q_(C(e))^2010=

3030

0.51

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.86

0.68

0.49

0.32

0.15

0.00

0.44

0.41

0.34

0.25

0.14

0.00

22.06

veh/km

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.69

0.51

0.36

0.22

0.11

0.00

0.35

0.31

0.25

0.18

0.09

0.00

26.67

veh/km

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.88

0.68

0.49

0.32

0.15

0.00

0.44

0.41

0.34

0.25

0.14

0.00

30.00

veh/km

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

0.50

0.48

0.42

0.32

0.18

0.00

0.8

0.9

odel exponential

Model parabolic

0.5

0.6

Model liniar

0.7

0.3

0.4

odel exponential

0.5

0.6

Model parabolic

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

Model liniar

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2009-2010 !!!

2530
3530
4530

3263
4514.5
5964.75

3237.494922
4486.160651
6033.91509

A(e))^2010=Q_(A(e))^2010=

2530

B(e))^2010=Q_(B(e))^2010=

3530

C(e))^2010=Q_(C(e))^2010=

4530

k/kj

k/kj