The rows are labeled by the lead after scoring a touchdown.

The columns are labeled by the amount of time remaining

in the game. Example: after scoring a touchdown you trail by 5 points, with 21:00 remaining in the game (i.e. 6:00 left
in the 3rd quarter). In the row corresponding to minus 5, and the column corresponding to 21:00, the entry is 0.31. This
means you should attempt a two-point conversion if your probability of making it exceeds 0.31. NFL teams make
about 40% of their two-point conversions, or perhaps a bit more. So when trailing by 5 with 21:00 to play, going for
two is the correct play.
Time Remaining In The Game
3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 24:00 27:00 30:00
20 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.60
19 0.27 0.24 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.41
18 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.56
17 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.60
16 0.95 0.86 0.71 0.65 0.59 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.51
15 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.46
14 0.72 0.69 0.70 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.59
13 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58
12 0.04 0.09 0.13 0.19 0.24 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.38
11 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.74 0.69 0.65 0.62 0.59 0.58 0.56
10 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59
9 0.61 0.57 0.54 0.53 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.47
8 0.92 0.76 0.70 0.59 0.53 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.45
7 0.58 0.64 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58
6 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.56
5 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.19 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36
4 0.45 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.53
3 0.93 0.90 0.84 0.79 0.75 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.62
L 2 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40
E 1 0.10 0.14 0.21 0.28 0.34 0.37 0.40 0.42 0.43 0.44
A 0 0.97 0.95 0.90 0.84 0.78 0.73 0.69 0.66 0.63 0.62
D -1 0.56 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
-2 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.20 0.25 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.36
-3 0.86 0.77 0.73 0.67 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54
-4 0.56 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58
-5 0.05 0.12 0.17 0.21 0.25 0.28 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37
-6 0.54 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.44
-7 0.95 0.88 0.84 0.78 0.74 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.62
-8 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42
-9 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
-10 0.03 0.14 0.26 0.35 0.42 0.47 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.52
-11 0.38 0.41 0.45 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.52
-12 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40
-13 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.24 0.29 0.33 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.41
-14 0.94 0.91 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.60
-15 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.41
-16 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39
-17 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.51 0.52
-18 0.01 0.09 0.23 0.34 0.39 0.43 0.45 0.47 0.47 0.48
-19 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38
-20 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42
The chart was computed using the footballcommentary.com Dynamic Programming Model, is intended to provide guidance on when to attempt a
two-point conversion.