Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
1. From the table on Baseline and Climate and Mean Annual Changes (p. 5):
a. What is the projected range for change in Air Temp by the 2020s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
+ 1.5F
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
+ 2.0F to + 3.0F
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
+ 3.0F
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
+ 4.0F to + 5.5F
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
+ 6.5F
b. By the 2050s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
+ 3.0F
c. What is the projected range for Sea Level Rise by the 2020s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
2 inches
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
4 to 8 inches
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
11 inches
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
11 to 24 inches
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
31 inches
d. By the 2050s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
7 inches
Middle range
High-estimate
(10th percentile)
24
(90th percentile)
33
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
39 to 52
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
57
b. By the 2050s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
32
c. What is the projected middle range projection of annual change of todays 100-yearflood at the Battery by the 2020s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
1.1 percent
d.
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
1.2 to 1.5 percent
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
1.7 percent
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
1.7 to 3.2 percent
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
5.0 percent
By the 2050s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
1.4 percent
e. What is the baseline for flood heights associated with a 100-year-flood at the
Battery?
i.
1971-200
1.0 percent
f. How much higher are 100-year-floods at the Battery expected to be given middle
range projections by the 2020s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
15.2 feet
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
15.3 to 15.7 feet
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
15.8 feet
Middle range
(25th to 75th percentile)
15.9 to 17 feet
High-estimate
(90th percentile)
17.6 feet
g. By the 2050s?
i.
Low-estimate
(10th percentile)
15.6 feet
3. Briefly describe the first three recommendations of the report (p. 6):
a. What do all of these recommendations focus on?
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. What are some limitations of the GCMs, according to the report? (p. 15)
a. They simplify some complex physical processes, in part because the spatial and
temporal scales of some climate variables such as thunderstorms are finer than the
resolutions of GCMs.
b. They do not fully include all relevant local climate processes such as urban heat
island effects and land/sea breezes.
c. They may be underestimating the rate of change in critical systems, including the
cryosphere (the frozen parts of the earth