Global Warming and Climate Change

What is Global Warming and Climate Change?

Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures.
Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to an increase in
average global temperatures. This is caused primarily by increases in greenhouse
gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

The term greenhouse is used in conjunction with the phenomenon known as the
greenhouse effect.

Energy from the sun drives the earths weather and climate, and heats the earths surface;
In turn, the earth radiates energy back into space;
Some atmospheric gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases) trap some of the
outgoing energy, retaining heat somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse;
These gases are therefore known as greenhouse gases;
The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature on Earth as certain gases in the atmosphere
trap energy.

Six main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) (which is 20 times
as potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide) and nitrous oxide (N2O), plus three
fluorinated industrial gases: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and
sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Water vapor is also considered a greenhouse gas.

The Greenhouse effect is natural. What do we

have to do with it?
Many of these greenhouse gases are actually life-enabling, for without them, heat would
escape back into space and the Earths average temperature would be a lot colder.
However, if the greenhouse effect becomes stronger, then more heat gets trapped than
needed, and the Earth might become less habitable for humans, plants and animals.
Carbon dioxide, though not the most potent of greenhouse gases, is the most significant
one. Human activity has caused an imbalance in the natural cycle of the greenhouse effect
and related processes. NASAs Earth Observatory is worth quoting the effect human
activity is having on the natural carbon cycle, for example:
In addition to the natural fluxes of carbon through the
Earth system, anthropogenic (human) activities, particularly
fossil fuel burning and deforestation, are also releasing
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

When we mine coal and extract oil from the Earths crust,
and then burn these fossil fuels for transportation,
heating, cooking, electricity, and manufacturing, we are
effectively moving carbon more rapidly into the atmosphere
than is being removed naturally through the sedimentation of
carbon, ultimately causing atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations to increase.
Also, by clearing forests to support agriculture, we are
transferring carbon from living biomass into the atmosphere
(dry wood is about 50 percent carbon).
The result is that humans are adding ever-increasing amounts
of extra carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Because of
this, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are higher
today than they have been over the last half-million years
or longer.
The Carbon Cycle; The Human Role, Earth Observatory, NASA

Another way of looking at this is with a simple analogy: consider salt and human health:

A small amount of salt is essential for human life;

Slightly more salt in our diet often makes food tastier;
Too much salt can be harmful to our health.

In a similar way, greenhouse gases are essential for our planet; the planet may be able to
deal with slightly increased levels of such gases, but too much will affect the health of the
whole planet.
The other difference between the natural carbon cycle and human-induced climate change
is that the latter is rapid. This means that ecosystems have less chance of adapting to the
changes that will result and so the effects felt will be worse and more dramatic it things
continue along the current trajectory.

Climate change in different parts of the world?

Africa

Some regions are likely to experience water shortages. Coupled with increasing demand,
this is likely to result in large increases in the number of people at risk of water scarcity. It
is likely to affect livelihoods, the report by the International Panel on Climate Change
says.
Projected reductions in the area suitable for growing crops, and in the length of the
growing season, are likely to produce an increased risk of hunger. In some countries,
yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.
Rising sea levels threaten large cities. Degradation of coral reefs and mangroves is likely,
with impacts on local fisheries and tourism.
Rising temperatures, coupled with over-fishing, will decrease the supply of fish from large
lakes, with important impacts on food supplies.
ASIA

Glacier melting in the Himalayas is virtually certain to disrupt water supplies within the
next 20 to 30 years. Floods and rock avalanches are virtually certain to increase. Heavilypopulated coastal regions, including the deltas of rivers such as the Ganges and Mekong,
are likely to be at risk of increased flooding.
Economic development is likely to be impacted by the combination of climatic change,
urbanisation, and rapid economic and population growth.
Forecast changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to reduce crop yields overall,
increasing the risk of hunger.
The presence of lethal diarrhoeal diseases associated with floods and droughts is expected
to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia and rises in coastal water temperature could
exacerbate cholera in South Asia.

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND

Ongoing water shortages, notably in southern and eastern Australia, are likely to get worse
by 2030.
Ecologically important regions such as the Great Barrier Reef and Kakadu National Park
are likely to lose a significant part of their wildlife before then, by 2020.
Some coastal communities are very likely to see an increased risk of coastal storms and
flooding.
Temperature rises of 1C-2C are likely to bring benefits to cooler areas, such as New
Zealand, in the form of longer growing seasons and reduced energy demand. Greater
warming is likely to bring a net negative impact - such as increased risk of drought and
fire.

EUROPE

Nearly all European regions are expected to be negatively affected by some future impacts
of climate change.
Central and Eastern European countries could face less summer rainfall, causing higher
water stress. Health risks due to heat waves are expected to increase. Forest productivity is
expected to fall and the frequency of peatland fires to increase.
Southern European countries are very likely to see reduced water supplies, lower crop
production, more wildfires and health impacts from increased heatwaves.
Northern countries are likely to benefit from increased crop yields, forest productivity, and
food supplies from the North Atlantic. By 2020, most areas of Europe are likely to see an
increased flood risk.

LATIN AMERICA

Increasing temperatures and decreases in soil water in the eastern Amazon region would
lead to replacement of tropical forest by savannah. Species extinctions are likely.
Drier areas are likely to see salinisation and desertification of agricultural land, with
falling crop yields and livestock productivity reducing food security. However, soybean
yields are likely to increase in temperate zones.
Sea level rise is very likely to bring flooding to low-lying regions such as the coast of El
Salvador, Guyana and the Rio de la Plata estuary. Increasing sea temperatures are likely to
impact coral reefs and south-east Pacific fish stocks.
Changes in rainfall patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly
affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.

NORTH AMERICA

Warming in western mountains is very likely to reduce snowpack, bringing more floods in
winter and reduced water supplies in summer.
Increases in problems with pests, diseases and forest fires are likely.
Cities with a history of heat waves are likely to experience many more, with potential
health impacts, especially for the elderly.
Rising sea levels, severe weather and storm surges, combined with population growth in
coastal areas, are very likely to increase economic losses.

POLAR REGIONS: ARCTIC AND ANTARCTICA

Reductions are likely in the thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and the extent
of sea ice and permafrost.
The depth of summer permafrost melting is likely to increase.
Changes to natural ecosystems are likely to impact migrating birds, mammals and higher
predators adversely. Specific ecosystems and habitats are expected to be vulnerable, as
climatic barriers to species invasions are lowered.
There are virtually certain to be both negative and positive effects on Arctic peoples.
Detrimental impacts would include those on infrastructure and traditional indigenous ways
of life while beneficial effects would include reduced heating costs and more navigable
northern sea routes.

SMALL ISLANDS

Sea level rise is likely to worsen floods, storm surges and coastal erosion, with impacts on
the socio-economic wellbeing of island communities.
Beach erosion and coral bleaching are likely to reduce tourism.
There is strong evidence that water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously
compromised.
Increased invasion by non-native species is likely.

WATER

The supply of water is very likely to increase at higher latitudes and in some wet tropics,
including populous areas in east and southeast Asia. It is very likely to decrease over much
of the mid-latitudes and dry tropics, which are presently water-stressed areas.
Drought-affected areas will likely increase. Instances of extreme rainfall are likely to
increase in frequency and intensity, raising the risk of floods. Increases in the frequency
and severity of floods and droughts will have implications on sustainable development.
Water volumes stored in glaciers and snow cover are very likely to decline, reducing
summer and autumn flows in regions where more than one sixth of the world population
currently live.

ECOSYSTEMS

Many ecosystems are likely to be challenged beyond their capacity to adapt over the
course of the century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated
disturbances such as wildfires, and other aspects of modern-day global change.
In the second half of this century, ecosystems on land are likely to become a net source of
carbon rather than a net absorber. This extra carbon will amplify climate change.
Roughly 20-30% of species are likely to be at high risk of irreversible extinction if the
global average temperature rises by 1.5-2.5C beyond 1990 levels. For increases in global
average temperature exceeding 1.5-2.5C, there are very likely to be major changes in
ecosystems which will adversely effect the environmental goods and services which
humans use.

Is there a fix?

In order to avoid dangerous global warming, we need to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by about
50% by the year 2050. Skeptics often make the argument that we simply don't have the technology necessary to
reduce emissions this much, this quickly.
Pacala and Socolow (2004) investigated this claim by examining the various technologies available to reduce GHG
emissions.Every technology they examined "has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project;
many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale."The study used the concept of a "stabilization
wedge", in which "a wedge represents an activity that reduces emissions to the atmosphere by a certain amount.The
study identifies 15 current options which could be scaled up to produce at least one wedge:
1. Improved fuel economy
2. Reduced reliance on cars
3. More efficient buildings
4. Improved power plant efficiency
5. Substituting natural gas for coal
6. Storage of carbon captured in power plants
7. Storage of carbon captured in hydrogen plants
8. Storage of carbon captured in synthetic fuel plants
9. Nuclear power
10. Wind power
11. Renewable hydrogen power
12. Solar photo voltaic power
13. Bio fuels
14. Forest management
15. Agriculture soils management

16. Scientist also propose covering deserted areas with reflective

sheetings.
The heat reflecting sheets could be used to cover arid areas and
not only reflect the sun's heat back into space by increasing the
Earth's overall reflectivity, or albedo, but also to act as an
anti-desertification measure.