Math 600 – Biostatistics

Handout: Probability

n
Probability of an event: P(E)  , where
N
n – number of favorable outcomes
N – number of all possible outcomes

Find the probability of the following:

In rolling a fair die, In a deck of cards,
P(5) = ____________
P() = ____________
P(1 or 4) = ____________
P(K) = ____________
P(even) = ____________
P(2 to 5) = ____________
P(greater than 2) = ____________
P(K of ) = ____________
P(less than or equal to 4) = ___________
P( or ) = ____________
In tossing a coin (H – head, T – tail),
P(not ) = ____________
P(H) = ____________
P(not Q) = ____________
In tossing two coins,
P(not  nor ) = ____________
P(2H) = ____________
P(H  T) = ____________
Of 200 patients examined at a clinic it was found
that 40 had heart trouble and 50 had diabetes.
Note of the following properties:
0  P(E)  1 a) What is the probability that a patient
picked at random has heart trouble?
P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3)+…+P(En) = 1 Ans. ____________
 
P A  1  P A 
b) what is the probability that a patient
chosen at random has either heart trouble
or diabetes?
Ans. ____________

THE MULTIPLICATION RULE

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one has no effect on the chance of occurrence of the other.
P (A  B) = P(A)P(B),  means “and”
Find the probability of the following:
In tossing two coins, In a deck of cards,
P(2H) = ____________ P(K of ) = ____________

THE ADDITION RULE FOR MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if two events cannot occur simultaneously.
P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B),  means “or”
Find the probability of the following:
In rolling a fair die, In a deck of cards,
P(2 or 3) = ____________ P( or ) = _____________
P(1,3, or 6) = ____________ P(2 or J of ) = _____________
In tossing two coins, P(H  T) = ____________
References: Hogg, Robert V. and Allen T. Craig (1995). Introduction to Mathematical Statistics 5th ed. Prentice-Hall.New Jersey, USA.
Keller, Gerald and Brian Warrack (2004). Statistics for Management and Economics 6th ed. Thomson Learning Inc.,USA.
Kuzma, Jan W. and Stephen E. Bohnenblust (2005). Basic Statistics for Health Sciences 5th ed. McGraw-Hill. Philippines.
Larsen, Richard J. and Morris L. Marx (2004). Introduction to Mathematical Statistics 3rd ed. Pearson Education Asia. Philippines.
Monzon-Ybañez, Lydia. Basic Statistics. Phoenix Publishing, Philippines.
Exercise 5.8 (Kuzma and Bohnenblust, p.88). Exercise 5.9 (Kuzma and Bohnenblust, p.88).
A ball is drawn at random from a box containing 10 red, In an experiment involving a toxic substance, the probability
7
30 white, 20 blue, and 15 orange balls. that a white mouse will be alive for 10 hours is , and the
10 9
Find the probability that it is: probability that a black mouse will be alive for 10 hours is .
10
a) orange or red = ____________ Find the probability that, at the end of 10 hours:
b) white = ____________ a) both mice will be alive = ____________

c) not blue = ____________ b) only the black mouse will be alive = ____________

d) red or white or blue = ____________ c) only the white mouse will be alive = ____________
d) both mice will not be alive = ____________
e) neither red nor blue = ____________
e) at least one mouse will be alive = ____________

Exercise 5.7 (Kuzma and Bohnenblust, p.88).

On a single toss of a pair of fair dice, what is the probability
that the following is observed:
a) a sum of 8 = ____________
*b) a sum of 10 = ____________
c) a sum of 7 or 11 = ____________
*d) a sum of greater than 10 = __________

On a single toss of a pair of fair dice, what is the probability that a sum of 10 or an even number is observed?

THE ADDITION RULE

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B),

A random experiment consists of drawing a card from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. If C1 denotes the collection of 13
hearts and C2 denotes the collection of four kings, find the following:
a) P(C1) = __________
b) P(C2) = __________
c) P(C1  C2) = __________
d) P(C1  C2) = __________

Suppose that in a large city, two health magazines are published, Health Today and Your Health. The circulation departments
report that 25% of the city’s population are subscribed to Health Today and 41% to Your Health. A survey reveals that 8% of all
households are subscribed to both. What percentage of the population are subscribed to at least one health magazine?
Answer: _____________

References: Hogg, Robert V. and Allen T. Craig (1995). Introduction to Mathematical Statistics 5th ed. Prentice-Hall.New Jersey, USA.
Keller, Gerald and Brian Warrack (2004). Statistics for Management and Economics 6th ed. Thomson Learning Inc.,USA.
Kuzma, Jan W. and Stephen E. Bohnenblust (2005). Basic Statistics for Health Sciences 5th ed. McGraw-Hill. Philippines.
Larsen, Richard J. and Morris L. Marx (2004). Introduction to Mathematical Statistics 3rd ed. Pearson Education Asia. Philippines.
Monzon-Ybañez, Lydia. Basic Statistics. Phoenix Publishing, Philippines.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The probability of an event B, given that event A happened, is expressed as P(B|A).
PB  A 
P(B | A) 
PA 

In rolling a fair die,

what is the probability of getting a 2 if the roll gets an even number? Answer: __________
what is the probability of getting a 2 or a 4 if the roll gets an even number? Answer: __________

A bowl contains 16 chips, of which 6 are red, 7 are white, and 3 are blue.

If two chips are taken at random and without replacement, find the probability of getting:
a) two red chips Answer: ____________
b) blue and white balls Answer: ____________
If four chips are taken at random and without replacement, find the probability that
a) each of the 4 chips is red Answer: ____________

A standard poker deck is shuffled and the card on top is removed. If B denotes that the second card is an ace, A1 denotes that
the top card was an ace, and A2 denotes that the top card was not an ace, find the following:
a) P(A1) Answer: __________
b) P(A2) Answer: __________
c) P(B|A1) Answer: __________
d) P(B|A2) Answer: __________
e) P(B  A1) Answer: __________
f) P(B  A2) Answer: __________

Homework (in ½ crosswise):

1. A bowl contains three red (R) balls, and seven white (W) balls of exactly the same size and shape. Select the balls
successively and with replacement so that the events of white on the first trial, white on the second, and so on, can
be assumed to be independent. In four trials, compute the probabilities of the following ordered sequences:
a) WWRW b) RWWW C) WWWR D) exactly one red ball

2. Suppose that two fair dice are tossed. What is the probability that the sum equals 10 given that it exceeds 8?

References: Hogg, Robert V. and Allen T. Craig (1995). Introduction to Mathematical Statistics 5th ed. Prentice-Hall.New Jersey, USA.
Keller, Gerald and Brian Warrack (2004). Statistics for Management and Economics 6th ed. Thomson Learning Inc.,USA.
Kuzma, Jan W. and Stephen E. Bohnenblust (2005). Basic Statistics for Health Sciences 5th ed. McGraw-Hill. Philippines.
Larsen, Richard J. and Morris L. Marx (2004). Introduction to Mathematical Statistics 3rd ed. Pearson Education Asia. Philippines.
Monzon-Ybañez, Lydia. Basic Statistics. Phoenix Publishing, Philippines.