Life-Cycle Management & Forecasting

Andreas Seiger
Director Diabetes Marketing & Market Access Novo Nordisk Canada Inc.

March 30th, 2011

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Pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical companies are under severe pressure to improve product pipelines, accelerate time to market, and improve margins on existing products - while also maintaining strict adherence to quality principles and regulatory requirements. However, drug development is a long process with significant risks, and pharmaceutical companies are faced with intense competitive pressures and patent expirations that threaten profitability.

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A lengthy uncertain process

5,000 10,000

200 - 300

5 - 10

1-3

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Post-approval life-cycle management (schematic)

Competitor EL new device S-A new disposable device S-A new durable device

Launch

NovoMix 30

Market shaping Victoza

Victoza

Optimize

Improve Market Access Insulin

2008

2009

2010

Retire

Mix 10/20

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Forecasting = reducing uncertainty

Forecasting periods
10 5 2 - 1 year rolling forecast 12 6 3 1 month rolling forecast

Forecasting tools
Environment assessment (Health Care system, Demographics, Competition etc) 2-3 different statistical techniques (sensitivity analyses) Benchmarking with comparable products Expert advise

Risk assessment

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