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F (T ) = exp
0
(t)dW (t)
1 2
T 0
2 (t)dt
where d(t) = (t)dZ(t) , and d[W, Z]t = dt. In particular, W (t) = Z(t) + Z (t), where = (1 2 )1/2 and Z is independent of Z. Note that
T T T
(t)dW (t) =
0 0
(t)dZ(t) +
0 0
(t)dZ (t)
T
((T ) (0)) +
(t)dZ (t)
Therefore, given a path of , the distribution of F (T ) is a log-normal, which is equivalent to 1 exp U 2 , 2 where U is a standard normal random variable,
T
=
0
2 (t)dt
1/2
T 1 ((T ) (0)) 2 2 (t)dt . 2 0 From Fubinis theorem on a product space of two Brownian motions Z and Z , a discount-free call option price on F (T ) is:
and
= exp
E N
log(/K) 1 log(/K) 1 + KN 2 2 1
This can be integrated numerically (2 dimensional Gauss quadrature, for example) once we have the joint distribution of Z(T ) and
T 0
2 (t)dt =
0