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Analiza Economico-Financiare Actiuni La BVB
Analiza Economico-Financiare Actiuni La BVB
Analiza Economico-Financiare Actiuni La BVB
I. Prezentarea portofoliului
Am ales inlcuderea in portofoliu a urmatoarelor actiuni : ALR, ENP, SNP, SOCP,
UCM.
Structura portofoliului la data de 07.01.2008
Companie
Simbol
ALR
ENP
Petrom S.A.
SNP
Socep S.A.
SOCP
UCM
Pret la data
de
07.01.2008
8.400
0
5.000
0
0.505
0
0.267
0
0.330
0
Nr. Actiuni
Valoare la data
de 07.01.2008
5,46
650.00
0.00
1,150.00
0.00
20.71%
5,55
11,000.00
5.00
20.00%
5,39
20,200.00
3.40
19.42%
5,61
17,000.00
50,000.0
0
0.00
Compania
Energopetrol S.A.
20.71%
Petrom S.A.
20.00%
Descriere societati
Alro Slatina S.A.-ALR
Categorie BVB- I
Indici BVB- BET C
Sector de activitate- materiale
Adresa- Str.Pitestilor nr.116 - 118 Slatina, Olt
Adresa WEB- www.alro.ro
Telefon / Fax- (0249) 431901 / (0249) 413990
Cod fiscal/CUI- R1515374
Cod ISIN- ROALROACNOR0
Numar total actiuni- 713.779.135
Valoare Nominala- 0,5000
Capital Social- 356.889.567,50
20.20%
27,76
8.40
Socep S.A.
19.42%
19.66%
5,75
Total
Pondere in
portofoliu
100.00%
Actiuni
Procent
600.929.084 84,1898%
70.859.106
9,9273%
41.990.945
5,8829%
713.779.135
100 %
Petrom-SNP
Categorie BVB- I
Indici BVB- BET,BET C,ROTX
Sector de activitate- resurse energetice
Adresa- Calea Victoriei nr.109, sector 1, Bucuresti, Bucuresti
Adresa WEB- www.petrom.ro
Telefon / Fax- (021) 3156202 / (021) 3155166
Cod fiscal/CUI- R1590082
Cod- ISIN ROSNPPACNOR9
Numar total actiuni -56.644.108.335
Valoare Nominala- 0,1000
Capital Social- 5.664.410.833,50
Actionar
Actiuni
Procent
OMV
28.894.467.414 51,0105%
AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
A.V.A.S.
11.690.694.418 20,6389%
FONDUL
11.391.130.186 20,1100%
PROPRIETATEA S.A.
alti actionari / others
4.667.673.541 8,2404%
S.C. PETROM S.A.
142.776 0,0003%
Total
56.644.108.335
100 %
OMV Aktiengesellschaft este cea mai mare companie industrial listat din
Austria, lucru dovedit de vnzrile n valoare de 18,97 miliarde de euro i un
numr de 40.993 angajai n 2006 i o capitalizare a pieei de aproximativ 14
miliarde de euro. Lider n industria de petrol i gaze din Europa Central, OMV
desfoar activiti de rafinare i marketing n 13 ri.
Cu OMV n calitate de acionar majoritar, Petrom face parte din cel mai
mare grup de petrol i gaze din Europa Central, care are rezerve dovedite de
petrol i gaze de circa 1,3 miliarde de barili echivalent petrol (bep), o producie
zilnic de aproximativ 324.000 bep i o capacitate de rafinare de 26,4 milioane
tone pe an. n prezent, OMV deine peste 2.540 de staii de distribuie n 13 ri.
Cota de pia a grupului n segmentul de Rafinare i Marketing n regiunea Dunrii
este acum de aproximativ 20%.
Socep Constanta-SOCP
Categorie BVB- I
Indici BVB- BET C
Sector de activitate- altele
Adresa- Incinta Port Nou, Dana nr. 34, Constanta, Constanta
Adresa WEB- www.socep.ro
Actiuni
Procent
147.366.916 42,9109%
107.556.702 31,3188%
36.114.550 10,5160%
32.179.213 9,3701%
20.208.363 5,8843%
343.425.744
100 %
UCM Resita-UCM
Categorie BVB- III
Indici BVB- BET C
Sector de activitate- echipamente
Adresa- Str.Golului nr.1, Resita, Caras-Severin
Adresa WEB- www.ucmr.com
Telefon / Fax -(0255) 215180, 217111 / (0255) 223082
Cod fiscal/CUI- R1056654
Cod ISIN- RORESYACNOR6
Numar total actiuni- 94.269.404
Valoare Nominala- 0,1000
Capital Social- 9.426.940,40
Actionar
INET AG
alti actionari / others
Total
Actiuni
Procent
90.864.400 96,3880%
3.405.004 3,6120%
94.269.404
100 %
II.
Companie
Profit net
Alro Slatina
S.A.
Energopetrol
S.A.
Pret la data de
07.01.2008
Capital social
8.4000
Dividend
net
0.54
57
5.0000
356,889,568.000
436,261,203.00
Rata de distribuire
(dividend net global/ profit net)
44.63929619030550%
5,061,637.000
278,567.00
0
5,664,410,834.000
Petrom S.A.
1,778,042,301.00
0.5050
72
34,342,574.000
Socep S.A.
UCM Resita
S.A.
3,123,743.00
0.01
5.47631640606620%
0.01
0.2670
33
0.3300
14.64406917214380%
9,426,940.000
4,315,276.00
III.
Data
BET
7-Jan-08
9,506.29
Evolutie
ALR
8.400
14-Jan-08
8,525.60
-10.32%
7.500
21-Jan-08
7,941.86
-6.85%
6.800
28-Jan-08
7,546.53
-4.98%
7.000
4-Feb-08
7,615.20
0.91%
7.000
11-Feb-08
7,128.75
-6.39%
7.000
18-Feb-08
25-Feb-08
7,076.82
7,641.88
-0.73%
7.98%
7.100
7.550
ENP
5.0
0
4.6
0
3.5
4
4.1
4
3.9
0
4.6
9
4.6
8
4.8
SNP
SOCP
UCM
0.505
0.267
0.330
0.472
0.250
0.330
0.432
0.236
0.330
0.404
0.250
0.340
0.390
0.261
0.370
0.372
0.270
0.350
0.368
0.422
0.270
0.304
0.350
0.350
7,247.41
-5.16%
7.000
10-Mar-08
7,341.33
1.30%
7.200
17-Mar-08
24-Mar-08
31-Mar-08
7,206.97
-1.83%
6,884.01
-4.48%
6,920.01
0.52%
6.900
7.000
7.150
5
5
0
7-Apr-08
7,344.93
6.14%
7.600
14-Apr-08
6,718.57
-8.53%
7.200
21-Apr-08
28-Apr-08
30-Apr-08
7,003.41
4.24%
6,974.90
-0.41%
7,020.48
0.65%
7.350
7.200
7.450
0
0
5
5.8
5.7
5.4
5.3
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.6
0.385
0.295
0.350
0.400
0.290
0.350
0.415
0.280
0.350
0.410
0.280
0.350
0.415
0.317
0.350
0.431
0.350
0.350
0.415
0.328
0.390
0.468
0.400
0.390
0.494
0.370
0.390
0.489
0.371
0.390
Dividendele acordate:
Companie
Simbol
ALR
0.6063
1-Apr-08
24-Apr-08
14-May-08
Compania
Energopetrol S.A.
ENP
11-Apr-08
18-Apr-08
7-May-08
Petrom S.A.
SNP
0.0191
28-Mar08
22-Apr-08
9-May-08
Socep S.A.
SOCP
0.0148
14-Mar08
27-Mar-08
15-Apr-08
UCM
22-Apr-08
29-Apr-08
16-May-08
Data
7-Jan-08
14-Jan-08
21-Jan-08
28-Jan-08
4-Feb-08
11-Feb-08
18-Feb-08
25-Feb-08
3-Mar-08
10-Mar-08
PALR
8.400
7.500
6.800
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.100
7.550
7.000
7.200
DA
Dividend
brut
P+DA
ALR
ALR
8.400
7.500
6.800
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.100
7.550
7.000
7.200
Data de
referinta
PSNP
0.505
0.472
0.432
0.404
0.390
0.372
0.368
0.422
0.385
0.400
Data AGA
DA
SNP
Data
inregistrare
P+DA SNP
0.505
0.472
0.432
0.404
0.390
0.372
0.368
0.422
0.385
0.400
Observatii
in termen de 60 de zile de
la data publicaraii
hotararii AGA in MO
acoperire pierdere,
participare salariati la
18% profit, efectuare
investitii
data incepere plata
22.05.2008; nu s-a
aprobat de AGA termenul
maxim de plata a
dividendelor
incepere plata 1 mai
2008, terminare plata 27
sep. 2008
nu se acorda dividende,
profit nerepartizat
P SOCP
0.267
0.250
0.236
0.250
0.261
0.270
0.270
0.304
0.295
0.290
DA
SOCP
0.004
P+DA SOCP
0.267
0.250
0.236
0.250
0.261
0.270
0.270
0.304
0.295
0.294
6.900
7.000
7.150
7.600
7.200
7.350
7.200
7.450
6.900
7.000
7.150
7.805
7.432
7.612
7.496
7.785
0.205
0.232
0.262
0.296
0.335
0.415
0.410
0.415
0.431
0.415
0.468
0.494
0.489
P+DA
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.011
RALRRALRm
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.010
0.012
(RpRpm)2
0.285
0.286
0.323
0.357
0.336
0.409
0.380
0.383
(Rp-Rpm)*
RALR-RALRm)
BET
9,506.29
Rp
14-Jan-08
21-Jan-08
28-Jan-08
4-Feb-08
11-Feb-08
18-Feb-08
25-Feb-08
8,525.60
7,941.86
7,546.53
7,615.20
7,128.75
7,076.82
7,641.88
-10.32%
-6.85%
-4.98%
0.91%
-6.39%
-0.73%
7.98%
7.500
6.800
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.100
7.550
-10.71%
-9.33%
2.94%
0.00%
0.00%
1.43%
6.34%
-8.67%
-5.20%
-3.34%
2.55%
-4.75%
0.91%
9.63%
10.41%
-9.03%
3.25%
0.31%
0.31%
1.74%
6.64%
0.75%
0.27%
0.11%
0.07%
0.23%
0.01%
0.93%
0.90%
0.47%
-0.11%
0.01%
-0.01%
0.02%
0.64%
3-Mar-08
10-Mar-08
17-Mar-08
24-Mar-08
31-Mar-08
7-Apr-08
14-Apr-08
21-Apr-08
28-Apr-08
30-Apr-08
7,247.41
7,341.33
7,206.97
6,884.01
6,920.01
7,344.93
6,718.57
7,003.41
6,974.90
7,020.48
-5.16%
1.30%
-1.83%
-4.48%
0.52%
6.14%
-8.53%
4.24%
-0.41%
0.65%
27.92%
-1.64%
7.000
7.200
6.900
7.000
7.150
7.805
7.432
7.612
7.496
7.785
-7.28%
2.86%
-4.17%
1.45%
2.14%
9.16%
-4.78%
2.42%
-1.52%
3.85%
-3.52%
2.94%
-0.19%
-2.84%
2.17%
7.78%
-6.89%
5.88%
1.24%
2.30%
-6.98%
3.16%
-3.86%
1.76%
2.45%
9.47%
-4.48%
2.73%
-1.22%
4.16%
0.12%
0.09%
0.00%
0.08%
0.05%
0.61%
0.47%
0.35%
0.02%
0.05%
0.25%
0.09%
0.01%
-0.05%
0.05%
0.74%
0.31%
0.16%
-0.02%
0.10%
4.19%
0.25%
3.55%
0.21%
Total
Medie
Rpm
Rp-Rpm
0.280
0.280
0.317
0.350
0.328
0.400
0.370
0.371
Data
7-Jan-08
ALR
RALR
0.415
0.415
0.421
0.437
0.422
0.476
0.503
0.500
8.400
RALRm
-5.21%
-0.31%
p 2 = 0.25%
p=0.5%
Data
7-Jan-08
ENP
RENP
RENPRENPm
(RpRpm)*
(RENPRENPm)
5.00
14-Jan-08
4.60
21-Jan-08
28-Jan-08
4-Feb-08
11-Feb-08
18-Feb-08
25-Feb-08
3-Mar-08
10-Mar-08
UCM
RUCM
RUCMRUCMm
(RpRpm)*
(RUCMRUCMm)
0.330
-8.10%
23.15%
16.84%
-5.90%
20.15%
-0.32%
4.38%
0.70%
0.330
0.00%
-1.05%
0.09%
3.54
4.14
3.90
4.69
4.68
4.89
-8.00%
23.04%
16.95%
-5.80%
20.26%
-0.21%
4.49%
1.20%
-0.56%
-0.15%
-0.96%
0.00%
0.42%
0.330
0.340
0.370
0.350
0.350
0.350
0.00%
3.03%
8.82%
-5.41%
0.00%
0.00%
-1.05%
1.98%
7.77%
-6.46%
-1.05%
-1.05%
0.05%
-0.07%
0.20%
0.31%
-0.01%
-0.10%
5.80
5.75
18.61%
-0.86%
18.51%
-0.97%
-0.65%
-0.03%
0.350
0.350
0.00%
0.00%
-1.05%
-1.05%
0.04%
-0.03%
Data
P+DA
5.45
5.35
5.00
5.00
4.80
4.80
4.90
4.65
-5.22%
-1.83%
-6.54%
0.00%
-4.00%
0.00%
2.08%
-5.10%
1.77%
0.10%
RENPm
RSNP
SNP
-5.32%
-1.94%
-6.65%
-0.10%
-4.10%
-0.10%
1.98%
-5.21%
0.01%
0.06%
-0.14%
-0.01%
0.28%
-0.01%
0.02%
-0.12%
0.07%
0.00%
(RpRpm)*
(RSNPRSNPm)
RSNPRSNPm
0.350
0.350
0.350
0.350
0.390
0.390
0.390
0.390
RUCMm
P+DA
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
11.43%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
17.88%
1.05%
RSOCP
SOCP
-1.05%
-1.05%
-1.05%
-1.05%
10.38%
-1.05%
-1.05%
-1.05%
RSOCPRSOCPm
0.00%
0.03%
-0.02%
-0.08%
-0.71%
-0.06%
-0.01%
-0.02%
-0.41%
-0.02%
(Rp-Rpm)*
(RSOCP-RSOCPm)
7-Jan-08
14-Jan-08
21-Jan-08
28-Jan-08
4-Feb-08
11-Feb08
18-Feb08
25-Feb08
0.5050
0.4720
0.4320
0.4040
0.3900
-6.53%
-8.47%
-6.48%
-3.47%
-6.68%
-8.62%
-6.63%
-3.61%
0.58%
0.45%
0.22%
-0.09%
0.2670
0.2500
0.2360
0.2500
0.2610
-6.37%
-5.60%
5.93%
4.40%
-8.80%
-8.03%
3.50%
1.97%
0.76%
0.42%
-0.12%
0.05%
0.3720
-4.62%
-4.76%
0.23%
0.2700
3.45%
1.01%
-0.05%
0.3680
-1.08%
-1.22%
-0.01%
0.2700
0.00%
-2.43%
-0.02%
0.4220
14.67%
14.53%
1.40%
0.3040
12.59%
10.16%
0.98%
3-Mar-08
10-Mar08
17-Mar08
24-Mar08
31-Mar08
7-Apr-08
14-Apr-08
21-Apr-08
28-Apr-08
30-Apr-08
Total
Medie
0.3850
-8.77%
-8.92%
0.31%
0.2950
-2.96%
-5.39%
0.19%
0.4000
3.90%
3.75%
0.11%
0.2944
-0.19%
-2.63%
-0.08%
0.4150
3.75%
3.60%
-0.01%
0.2850
-3.20%
-5.63%
0.01%
0.4151
0.02%
-0.13%
0.00%
0.2857
0.23%
-2.21%
0.06%
0.4207
0.4375
0.4223
0.4763
0.5033
0.4995
1.36%
3.98%
-3.47%
12.78%
5.68%
-0.75%
2.51%
0.15%
1.22%
3.83%
-3.61%
12.63%
5.54%
-0.90%
0.03%
0.30%
0.25%
0.74%
0.07%
-0.02%
4.56%
0.27%
0.3234
0.3572
0.3362
0.4092
0.3804
0.3828
13.21%
10.46%
-5.90%
21.73%
-7.04%
0.62%
41.37%
2.43%
10.78%
8.03%
-8.33%
19.30%
-9.47%
-1.81%
0.23%
0.62%
0.57%
1.14%
-0.12%
-0.04%
4.62%
0.27%
RSNPm
Simbol
Nr. Actiuni
ALR
00
Valoare la
data de
07.01.2008
650.
00
00
00
40
19.66%
7.784
5,059.60
16.65%
-7.33%
20.71%
4.65
5,347.50
17.60%
-7.00%
20.00%
0.499
5,489.00
18.07%
-1.19%
19.42%
0.389
7,857.80
6,630.0
25.86%
45.69%
20.20%
50,000.0
0.39
27,768.
21.82%
18.18%
30,38
5,610.
00
Total
Variatie pret
5,393.
17,000.0
UCM
Pondere in
portofoliu la data
de 30.04.2008
5,555.
20,200.0
SOCP
Valoare la
data de
30.04.200
8
5,750.
11,000.0
SNP
Pret la data
de
30.04.2008
5,460.
00
1,150.
ENP
Pondere in
portofoliu
RSOCPm
40
0
100.00%
3.90
Socep S.A.
25.86%
P etrom S.A.
18.07%
Data
7-Jan-08
14-Jan-08
21-Jan-08
28-Jan-08
4-Feb-08
11-Feb-08
18-Feb-08
25-Feb-08
(RALR-RALRm)^2
0.0000
0.0108
0.0081
0.0011
0.0000
0.0000
0.0003
0.0044
(RENP-RENPm)^2
0.0000
0.0066
0.0536
0.0284
0.0035
0.0406
0.0000
0.0019
(RSNP-RSNPm)^2
0.0000
0.0045
0.0074
0.0044
0.0013
0.0023
0.0001
0.0211
(RSOCP-RSOCPm)^2
0.0000
0.0041
0.0031
0.0035
0.0019
0.0012
0.0000
0.0159
(RUCM-RUCMm)^2
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
0.0060
0.0042
0.0001
0.0001
3-Mar-08
10-Mar-08
17-Mar-08
24-Mar-08
31-Mar-08
7-Apr-08
14-Apr-08
21-Apr-08
28-Apr-08
30-Apr-08
Total
Dispersia
Abaterea
Beta
0.0049
0.0010
0.0015
0.0003
0.0006
0.0090
0.0020
0.0007
0.0001
0.0017
0.0342
0.0001
0.0028
0.0004
0.0044
0.0000
0.0017
0.0000
0.0004
0.0027
0.1813
0.0101
0.1004
0.0173
0.0079
0.0014
0.0013
0.0000
0.0001
0.0015
0.0013
0.0159
0.0031
0.0001
0.0738
0.0041
0.0640
1.0867
0.0009
0.0000
0.0010
0.0000
0.0175
0.0109
0.0035
0.0472
0.0050
0.0000
0.1157
0.0064
0.0802
0.0648
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0108
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0228
0.0013
0.0356
-0.0057
0.0466
0.0026
0.0509
0.8465
IV.
Analiza tehnica
V. Concluzii
Societate
ALR
ENP
SNP
SOCP
UCM
Xi
Rm
Rm*Xi
0.8465
0.0173
1.0867
0.0648
0.0057
16.65%
17.60%
18.07%
25.86%
21.82%
i*Xi
i (%)
5.0899%
10.0361%
6.4025%
8.0173%
-0.31%
0.10%
0.15%
2.43%
-0.051%
0.018%
0.027%
0.629%
0.141
0.003
0.196
0.017
82.656
0.858
84.358
4.016
3.5596%
1.05%
0.229%
-0.001
-0.796
VI.
Bibliografie
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
www.alro.ro
www.energo.ro
www.petrom.ro
www.socep.ro
www.ucmr.com
www.bvb.ro
www.ktd.ro
www.agf.ro