Polynomials: Extrapolation and Curve-Fitting Project

South Africa

Sergio Torres Gerardo Alvarado Algebra II, Period 2 December 3, 2011

PART I: DATA QUESTIONS

1.) Write down the equation to the line. y = -0.2247x6 + 1.7004x5 + 316.16x4 - 8173.6x3 + 63054x2 - 65318x + 76701 What curve did you choose as best fit (quadratic, cubic, quartic, quintic)? The curve that we chose as the best fit was actually to the sixth power. 2.) How many new HIV cases have you predicted in the next 5 years? Does this number make sense? Why or why not? Our graph predicts that in five years, there will be a negative number of HIV cases. Although this number does not make sense, it still states that the trend is on the decrease and we will see less HIV cases in five years.

South Africa
1,000,000 500,000 0 -500,000 -1,000,000 -1,500,000 -2,000,000 -2,500,000 -3,000,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 South Africa Log. (South Africa) Power (South Africa) Log. (South Africa) Power (South Africa) Poly. (South Africa)

3.) How many new HIV cases have you predicted in the next 20 years? Does this number make sense? Why or why not? In twenty years the number of HIV cases has reached a number even deeper into the negatives than the five year trend. This number still doesnt make sense but it still suggests that the number of HIV cases will be going down even more than before.

South Africa
100,000,000 0 -100,000,000 -200,000,000 -300,000,000 -400,000,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 South Africa Log. (South Africa) Power (South Africa) Log. (South Africa) Power (South Africa) Poly. (South Africa)

PART II: ARTICLE QUESTIONS (3-4 Complete sentences per question)

1. What are the major factors for the spread of HIV in your selected country?
Some of the major factors of the spread of HIV in South Africa are the low perception of the risk of HIV from South African citizens, inadequate information on sex education, the use of multiple sexual partnerships among the people, low condom use, and the excessive use of alcohol.

2. What has been done to decrease the number of new cases?

The World Health Organization, or WHO, have issued ARV drugs to be given to pregnant mothers to avoid mother-to-child transmission of HIV, which has affected the mortality rate of infants in South Africa. 95% of South Africa has coverage and is able to receive the proper treatment for HIV. Also in 2001, a campaign was started by the health department of South Africa to help raise awareness of HIV and give information on the prevention of AIDS.

3. What are some of the barriers that contribute to the spread of HIV?
Some barriers that contribute to the spread of HIV in South Africa are lack of education of HIV. Many people dont know that they are at risk of getting infected because they havent been informed by anyone. As stated above the South African government has started a campaign to raise awareness about the spread of HIV.

4. What are your suggestions for this country that could effectively help reduce the number of new cases?
We suggest that South Africa should let other countries intervene to help them with the spread of HIV by sending things that they need to help them such as doctors, medical supplies, or even money for their programs. Also, the government should continue their campaign and spread out to other parts of South Africa.

PART III: WHITE PAPER

Overview: The spread of HIV in South Africa Studies show that from 1990 to 1995 the number of HIV cases in South Africa has from 60,000 to 490,000. The disease can affect any kind of person. An estimated 40,000 children and infants are infected with HIV every year. Measures have been taken to counteract the spread of the disease by the South African Government. Contributing Factors Factors that are contributing to the spread of HIV are low perception of risk from the South African inhabitants. They have not been properly taught about the risks of having unprotected sex, which is also a factor. Another factor of the spread of HIV is the use of multiple sexual partners. A person that is infected with HIV can unknowingly be spreading the virus to many people. The last main factor is the excessive use of alcohol by the population of South Africa. Data Analysis
1990
South Africa

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

60,000 97,000 150,000 240,000 350,000 490,000 610,000 700,000 720,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 640,000 590,000 540,000 500,000 480,000 460,000 430,000 420,000 400,000 390,000

1999 700,000

According to our data, the number of cases of HIV starts to increase from 1990 to 1998 where it reaches its highest number of HIV cases. From 1998 to 2009 the number slowly starts to go back down from 720,000 to 390,000. This shows that in the early Ninetys the people of South Africa were not well informed and spread the disease among themselves but in the late ninetys the number of cases started to go down, which may indicate that around this time the people of South Africa were starting to learn and use methods of HIV prevention. Predictions We predict that in twenty years, HIV will have been completely removed from the South African Population. This is shown in the trend line (white). Another possible outcome would be a very low number of HIV cases.

South Africa
100,000,000 0 -100,000,000 0 -200,000,000 -300,000,000 -400,000,000 10 20 30 40 50 South Africa Log. (South Africa) Power (South Africa) Poly. (South Africa)

Recommendations We recommend sending people to educate the population about safe sex and other methods of preventing the spread of new HIV cases with programs such as Doctors without Borders.

*Extra Credit* (+5 points)

Find a nonprofit or non-governmental organization (NGO) to helps with the prevention of HIV in your country. Type up the following: 1.) Aids and Rights Alliance for South Africa 2.) 53 Mont Blanc Street Windhoek Namibia

3.) Established in 2002, the AIDS and Rights Alliance for Southern Africa (ARASA) is a regional partnership of non-governmental organisations working together to promote a human rights approach to HIV/AIDS and TB in Southern Africa through capacity building and advocacy. It is constituted in the form of a trust and all partner organisations are members of the trust. Steering committees, comprising trust members, act as advisory boards for the two ARASA programme areas: training and awareness raising; and advocacy and lobbying.Services they provide/offer

4.) http://www.arasa.info/