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)=
j=1,N
P(d
j
|h
) =
c
* (1- )
l
Ipoteza cu predictie maxima este data de valoarea care
maximizeaza aceasta expresie
L=log(P(d|h
))=
j=1,N
log(P(d
j
|h
)) = c log * l log(1- )
Derivam in functie de
dL/d = c/ l/(1- ) =0
= c/(c+l) = c/N
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Aroma - F
Aroma - F
Ambalaj - W
P(F=cirese)
P(F=cirese)
F P(W=rosu|F)
cirese
1
lamaie
2
RB
19
Cutremur
Alarma
TelMihai TelDana
Hot
P(H)
0.001
P(C)
0.002
H C P(A)
T T 0.95
T F 0.94
F T 0.29
F F 0.001
A P(M)
T 0.9
F 0.05
A P(D)
T 0.7
F 0.01
H C P(A | H, C)
T F
T T 0.95 0.05
T F 0.94 0.06
F T 0.29 0.71
F F 0.001 0.999
Tabela de probabilitati
conditionate
Semantica RB
A) Reprezentare a distributiei de probabilitate
B) Specificare a independentei conditionale
constructia retelei
A) Fiecare valoare din distributia de probabilitate
poate fi calculata ca:
P(X
1
=x
1
. X
n
=x
n
) = P(x
1
,, x
n
) =
H
i=1,n
P(x
i
| parinti(x
i
))
unde parinti(xi) reprezinat valorile specifice ale
variabilelor Parinti(Xi)
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Inferente probabilistice
21
Cutremur
Alarma
TelMihai TelDana
Hot
P(H)
0.001
P(C)
0.002
H C P(A)
T T 0.95
T F 0.94
F T 0.29
F F 0.001
A P(M)
T 0.9
F 0.05
A P(D)
T 0.7
F 0.01
P(M . D . A .~H .~C ) =
P(M|A)* P(D|A)*P(A|~H .~C )*P(~H) .P(~C)=
0.9 * 0.7 * 0.001 * 0.999 * 0.998 = 0.00062
Invatarea in retele Bayesiene
P(F=cirese,W=verde|h
, 1, 2
)=
P(F=cirese|h
, 1, 2
) P(W=verde|F=cirese, h
, 1, 2
) = (1- )
P(d|h
, 1, 2
) =
c
* (1- )
l
*
rc
* (1- )
gc
*
rl
* (1- )
gl
L = [c log + l log (1- )]+ [rc log 1 + gc log(1- 1) +
[rl log 2 + gl log(1- 2)]
dL/d = c/ l/(1- ) = 0
dL/d 1 = rc/ 1 gc/(1- 1) = 0
dL/d 2 rl/ 2 gl/(1- 2) = 0
= c/(c+l) 1=rc/(rc+gc) 2 = rl/(rl+gl)
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