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Capitolul 5 ANALIZA STATISTIC A BALANEI DE PLI EXTERNE

5.1 Sistemul conceptual al Balanei de Pli Externe Poziia unei economii naionale n raporturile ei cu restul lumii este reflectat n dou documente: Balana de Pli Externe (BPE) i poziia investiional internaional (PII), documente elaborate sub auspiciile Fondului Monetar Internaional (FMI) n scopul de a rspunde cerinelor de fundamentare a deciziilor de politic macroeconomic i de implicare a rii n schimburile cu strintatea, i, pe de alt parte, de a asigura comparabilitatea datelor naionale cu cele ale altor ri i ierarhizarea internaional. Aceste dou documente sunt rezultatul unor abordri diferite ale relaiilor economice internaionale ale unei ri. Balana de Pli Externe (BPE) nregistreaz tranzaciile (fluxurile) derulate ntre rezideni i nerezideni de-a lungul perioadei de referin (de obicei, anul calendaristic). Poziia Investiional Internaional (PII) are n vedere stocul de creane (drepturi) i angajamente (obligaii) financiare ale unei economii fa de restul rilor lumii la un moment dat (de obicei la sfritul anului). Modificarea acestui stoc este, evident, rezultatul tranzaciilor derulate dup momentul ultimei observri a stocului (ceea ce este nregistrat n BPE), dar i efectul schimbrilor petrecute n ratele de schimb ale monedelor n care sunt evideniate creanele i angajamentele, n preurile utilizate pentru evaluarea creanelor (drepturilor) i angajamentelor (obligaiilor) acumulate de-a lungul timpului, precum i efectul altor ajustri valorice (deteriorri, pierderi etc.). Vezi i paragraful redactat n limba englez. Potrivit Manualului Balanei de Pli Externe elaborat sub auspiciile FMI (actualmente, bncile centrale din rile lumii aplic recomandrile din cea de a cincea ediie actualizat a acestui Manual), balana de pli externe (BPE) este un document statistic care rezum ntr-o form ordonat, sistematic totalitatea tranzaciilor unei economii cu restul lumii de-a lungul unei perioade de timp (de obicei, un an). Constatm c, la

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fel ca i n cazul SCN, BPE se bazeaz pe conceptul de tranzacie, numai c de ast dat este vorba de tranzacii ntre rezidenii i nerezidenii unei economii. Distincia ntre cele dou categorii de subiecte economice nu are n vedere naionalitatea sau alte criterii legale sau administrative, ci situarea centrului principal de interes economic n limitele granielor economice ale respectivei ri sau dincolo de acestea (accepiunea economic a rezidenei). Centrul principal de interes economic al unei persoane fizice sau juridice se afl ntr-o ar atunci cnd aceasta are plasamente n teritoriul economic al respectivei ri, s-a angajat sau intenioneaz s se angajeze n activiti i tranzacii economice pe o perioad de timp indefinit sau finit, dar nu mai mic de un an. Astfel, rezidenii unei economii sunt: Familiile i indivizii care i creeaz n cadrul economiei o gospodrie; ntreprinderile (societi comerciale i regii autonome) corporaiile i quasi-corporaiile (sucursale ale investitorilor strini care nu au dobndit personalitate juridic); Organizaiile private non-profit; Administraia public central (guvernul) i local. n rndul nerezidenilor se numr, pe de alt parte, persoane fizice i juridice strine, care fiineaz n afara teritoriului economic al rii, conaionalii care i-au mutat centrul de interes economi/activitate n strintate, filialele i sucursalele societilor comercial autohtone stabilite n strintate, turitii strini, oameni de afaceri i funcionarii diplomatici aflai temporar pe teritoriul unei alte ri dect cea de origine. BPE cuprinde toate tranzaciile de natur comercial i/sau financiar (vezi tabelul 5.1), fiind un bilan anual al acestor schimburi. n principiu, tranzaciile internaionale se efectueaz cu titlu oneros, genernd pli n schimbul bunurilor primite sau al serviciilor angajate. Totui, unele operaiuni ntre rezideni i nerezideni se fac fr contraprestaie, fiind considerate transferuri unilaterale. Evaluarea tranzaciei se face la preul pieei, definit ca suma de bani pe care potenialul cumprtor o pltete pentru a achiziiona ceva (un bun sau un serviciu) de la potenialul vnztor/ prestator, ambii parteneri fiind entiti independente, reunite n afacerea respectiv din interese strict comerciale. Momentul nregistrrii tranzaciei este momentul schimbului (real sau estimat) de proprietate. O convenie unanim acceptat este aceea c data schimbului de proprietate coincide cu data nscrierii operaiunii n evidenele societilor bancare care mijlocesc tranzacia internaional.

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

Principiul dublei nregistrri n elaborarea BPE se refer la faptul c partea covritoare a trazaciilor internaionale este cu titlu oneros (se achit o livrare de mrfuri sau o prestare de servicii). Aceasta nseamn c exportul determin, de exemplu, o diminuare de resurse reale compensat printr-o plat (o ncasare de mijloace financiare) i invers. nc din prima ediie a Manualului BPE (1948), FMI a propus ca sumele ncasate s fie nregistrate n activul sau creditul (+) balanei, n timp ce plile s fie consemnate n pasivul sau debitul (-) ei. Acelai principiu se aplic i tranzaciilor financiare (majorarea de active achiziionate n strintate se aseamn cu o ieire de valut pentru a efectua o plat i invers), precum i transferurilor unilaterale (la care ncasarea sau plata are loc independent de contraprestaia real). Recapitulnd, BPE nregistreaz la activ (n credit) aporturi de resurse financiare ca urmare a exporturilor de bunuri materiale i servicii, ncasri de venituri aferente factorilor de producie care au prsit ara, precum i operaiunile de reducere ale activelor externe sau cretere ale pasivelor externe ale economiei, iar la pasiv (n debit) se nscriu diminurile de resurse ca urmare a importurilor de bunuri materiale i servicii, pli cu titluri de venituri ale factorilor de producie intrate n ar din strintate n vederea valorificrii, precum i acele operaiuni care marcheaz creterea activelor externe ale rii i/sau diminuare pasivelor sale n raporturile cu nerezidenii. Convertirea (translatarea) tuturor tranzaciilor ntr-o moned unic de cont. Deoarece tranzaciile internaionale se deruleaz n diverse monede, agregarea informaiilor ntr-o situaie coerent, cu valene cognitive i analitice presupune trecerea valorii tranzaciilor exprimate n diferitele monede efective ntr-o unic moned de referin. Pn la 31 decembrie 2002, Romnia a folosit n statistica BPE dolarul SUA ca moned de cont, iar de la 1 ianuarie 2003 a trecut la evidenierea agregat n euro. Balana de pli se ntocmete de ctre autoritatea monetar central (Banca Naional a Romniei) pe baza raportrilor lunare ale tuturor bncilor comerciale autorizate de ea s intermedieze tranzacii comerciale i financiare internaionale. Pentru a asigura ntreaga gam de informaii necesare n gestionarea echilibrului extern, BPE se elaboreaz: - global: pentru a evidenia totalitatea tranzaciilor economiei naionale cu restul lumii; - bilateral: pentru a cunoate particularitile tranzaciilor comerciale i financiare cu fiecare ar partener; - regional: pentru a urmri dinamica i structura schimburilor cu grupri de state, care adopt i respect reguli comune n tranzaciile cu

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Romnia (de exemplu, BPE a rii noastre cu rile membre ale Uniunii Europene sau BPE cu celelalte ri membre ale CEFTA Asociaia de Comer Liber Central European). 5.2 Structura unei Balane de Pli Externe BPE este uzual structurat pe dou conturi: Contul curent al BPE sau balana de pli externe curente Contul de capital i financiar al BPE n interiorul acestei scheme recomandate de ctre FMI, fiecare ar i dezvolt propria detaliere pe capitole i posturi n funcie de specializarea sa internaional, precum i n funcie de interesele economice i financiare pe care le promoveaz. n tabelul 5.1 este prezentat Balana de pli externe a Romniei pe primele ase luni ale anului 2003 comparativ cu aceeai perioad a anului 2002. Aa cum se poate observa, contul curent al BPE cuprinde trei capitole distincte(A+B+C): A. Bunuri i servicii, care subsumeaz, la rndul su: balana comercial, respectiv exportul i importul de bunuri materiale tangibile, ambele fluxuri fiind nregistrate la preuri franco frontiera rii exportatoare (fob port de mbarcare, n cazul transportului pe calea apelor) balana serviciilor, care cuprinde ncasri i pli generate de comerul internaional cu servicii de la transportul de mrfuri i de cltori i servicii de asigurare internaional la servicii de turism i servicii profesionale dintre cele mai diverse. B. Venituri, numit i balana veniturilor cuprinde ncasri i pli generate de micarea internaional a factorilor de producie munc i capital. C. Transferurile curente se refer la intrrile i ieirile de resurse reale i financiare fr compensare din partea beneficiarilor.

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

Balana de Pli Externe a Romniei Tabelul 5.1 - milioane Euro


Poziia 1. CONTUL CURENT (A+B+C) A. Bunuri i servicii a. Bunuri (fob) b. Servicii - Transport - Turism - Alte servicii B. Venituri C. Transferuri curente 2. CONTUL DE CAPITAL I FINANCIAR (A+B) A. Contul de capital B. Contul financiar 3. ERORI I OMISIUNI
*

Credit 19474 17143 14675 2468 1013 352 1103 435 1896 8676 102 8574 -

2002 Debit 21097 19890 17427 2463 881 416 1166 923 284 6183 7 6176 870

Sold -1623 -2747 -2752 5 132 -64 -63 -488 1612 2493 95 2398 -870

Credit 20551 18285 15614 2671 1063 396 1212 327 1939 8541 197 8344 -

2003 Debit 23428 22178 19569 2609 997 423 1189 950 300 5370 9 5361 294

Sold -2877 -3893 -3955 62 66 -27 23 -623 1639 3171 188 2983 -294

Date provizorii Sursa datelor: Raportul anual 2003 al BNR, 2004

Cellalt cont al BPE, contul de capital i financiar sau balana micrilor de capital cuprinde dou categorii principale de tranzacii (A+B): A. Contul de capital cuprinde toate operaiunile de ncasri i pli generate de transferul internaional al capitalului, precum i de achiziionarea/vnzarea de active (nefinanciare), care nu sunt rezultatul activitii umane (de exemplu: pmnt sau bogiile subsolului) sau de active intangibile (brevete, copy-right, mrci, nchirieri sau alte contracte transferabile) tranzacionate ntre rezideni i nerezideni. B. Contul financiar grupeaz toate tranzaciile care au ca obiect schimbarea proprietii asupra activelor financiare n raporturile cu strintatea, inclusiv crearea sau lichidarea de creane fa de restul lumii n cadrul activelor i pasivelor financiare externe ale unei economii.

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n alctuirea BPE apar erori i omisiuni din cauz c datele necesare sunt deseori derivate independent din surse diferite, ceea ce face ca procesul de contabilizare prin dubl intrare s nu conduc la rezultate infailibile. Apar frecvent i erori i omisiuni de ncadrare din partea bncilor comerciale care furnizeaz datele de intrare pentru alctuirea BPE de ctre Banca Central. Echilibrarea Balanei de Pli Externe Balana de Pli Externe a unei ri reflect relaia n care se gsesc cele dou componente ale sale contul curent, pe de o parte, i contul de capital i financiar, pe de alt parte). ntruct, o BPE global a unei ri nu poate rmne dezechilibrat, orice dezechilibru al contului curent este compensat sau contracarat printr-un dezechilibru n cellalt sens al contului de capital i financiar. De aceea, se afirm c deficitul contului curent al BPE determin un excedent al contului de capital i financiar (prin angajarea de credite sau prin atragerea de capital din strintate pentru plata diferenei dintre ncasrile i plile generate de operaiunile curente), dup cum, excedentul contului curent se compenseaz printr-un export de capital (mprumut acordat n strintate sau investiie direct) pentru a asigura echilibrul general anual al BPE. n vederea gestionrii echilibrului general al BPE al unei ri, ntocmirea de BPE pe principalele relaii bilaterale este o necesitate indiscutabil. 5.3 Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe Exist patru grupe de indicatori de analiz statistic a BPE a unei ri, indicatori care pot furniza informaii utile unui om de afaceri versat pentru luarea de decizii raionale la nivelul propriilor sale interese comerciale i financiare: 1. Indicatori ai semnificaiei (gravitii) dezechilibrului 2. Indicatori ai dinamicii dezechilibrului 3. Indicatori de analiz structural a dezechilibrului 4. Indicatori pentru compararea dezechilibrelor din BPE a dou ri

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

Notaii folosite: X ncasri de la nerezideni (intrri, nregistrri n creditul BPE). La nivelul fiecrui capitol i, respectiv post al BPE, aceste intrri sunt notate cu xj. M pli ctre nerezideni (ieiri, nregistrri n debitul BPE). La nivelul unei componente a contului BPE, plile aferente sunt notate cu mj. S soldul contului BPE: S = X M. Fiecare capitol sau post prezint un sold parial sj = xj mj, astfel nct, pentru ntregul cont al BPE S = sj, unde cu subscriptul j s-au simbolizat cele n componente ale unui cont al BPE. 1. Gravitatea dezechilibrului unui cont al BPE se evideniaz prin soldul ce se obine comparnd intrrile de valut (Creditul) cu ieirile de valut (Debitul). Se obine astfel mrimea absolut a dezechilibrului la nivelul unui cont, al unui capitol sau al unui element al BPE: soldul contului BPE: S = X M sold parial sj = xj mj n anul 2003, la nivelul contului curent al BPE a Romniei se nregistreaz un deficit de 2877 mil. Euro, n special pe seama poziiei Bunuri i servicii, al crui deficit de 3893 mil Euro a fost doar parial compensat de excedentul capitolului Transferuri curente (+1639 mil. Euro): S CC = 20551 23428 = 2.877 mil. Euro pe capitole: bunuri i servicii : s1 = 18285 22178 = 3.893 mil. Euro

venituri : s 2 = 327 950 = 623 mil. Euro transferuri curente : s3 = 1939 300 = +1639 mil. Euro La nivelul contului de capital i financiar soldul se calculeaz similar: S CCF = 8541 5370 = +3.171 mil. Euro rezultnd un deficit de 2877 - 3171 = -294 milioane Euro n poziia Erori i omisiuni. Mai mult dect valoarea absolut a deficitului sau excedentului unei componente a BPE, conteaz mrimea relativ a dezechilibrului (ce semnific acest dezechilibru). Exist mai multe modaliti pentru a evidenia ct de mare este dezechilibrul, ct de dramatic este situaia BPE sau a uneia dintre componentele sale.

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a) compararea cu PIB al rii este o modalitate potrivit pentru a aprecia semnificaia deficitului/excedentului global al contului curent sau al contului de capital i financiar al BPE a unei ri: X M MRS 1 = 100 PIB O valoare de pn n 5% este considerat ca fiind acceptabil pentru economiti. Niveluri ale acestui indicator cuprinse ntre 5% i 10% sunt menite sa ridice semnale de alarm factorilor de decizie n vederea corectrii dezechilibrelor aprute. Valori de peste 10% arat dezechlibre grave ce pot fi corectate numai prin msuri i politici susinute. O serie de analiti ridic ns un semn de ntrebare asupra comparabilitii internaionale a acestui indicator, dat fiind faptul c, n timp ce soldul contului curent este determinat n USD sau, mai nou, n rile europene n Euro, PIB se estimeaz n moneda naional, iar metodologiile de conversie n USD sau Euro pot diferi de la o ar la alta. n anul 2003 soldul contului curent al BPE a Romniei reprezenta 5.2% fa de nivelul PIB (valoarea estimat a PIB in anul 2003 este de 50.346 mil Euro): 2.877 MRS1 = 100 = 5.71% 50346 Celelalte dou modaliti de evideniere a mrimii dezechilibrului sunt aplicabile att la nivelul ntregului cont al BPE ct i pe capitole i posturi ale balanei.

b) compararea cu volumul total al tranzaciilor (ncasri i pli) evit neajunsul procedeelor de conversie a PIB din moneda naional n USD sau Euro: - La nivelul unui cont al BPE: X M S MRS2 = 100 = 100 X +M X +M Pentru acest indicator, specialitii consider ca acceptabil un nivel inferior pragului de 10%. - Acest indicator se poate calcula i la nivelul unui capitol sau al unui post din BPE: xj mj MRS 2 j = 100 xj + mj

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

n exemplul rii noastre, n prima jumtate a anului 2003 valoarea acestui indicator este: 2.877 MRS 2 = 100 = 6,54% 20551 + 23428 pe capitole: bunuri i servicii : mrs 21 = 9.62%
venituri : mrs 22 = 48.79% transferuri curente : mrs 23 = +73.20% Se observ c valoarea acestui indicator pe total cont curent se situeaz sub pragul de 10%, ascunznd ns gravele debalane nregistrate n posturile venituri i, respectiv, transferuri curente, care, pe total, s-au compensat parial. Mai mult, deficitul grav nregistrat n balana comercial (ce poate fi pus n principal pe seama creterii cererii interne de bunuri de consum din import ca urmare a liberalizarii creditelor bancare de consum, dar i a creterii cererii de investiii i a variaiilor preurilor internaionale la bunurile de import) poate fi reliefat prin valoarea de peste 10 procente a acestui indicator (mrs2 pentru bunuri este 11,24%)

c) compararea prin raportare a ncasrilor cu plile aferente fiecrui fel de tranzacie nregistrat separat n BPE ca post (element constitutiv) al acesteia. Rezult astfel gradul de acoperire a plilor prin ncasri din tranzacii de acelai fel o mrime relativ de coordonare tipic analizei unei balane: - La nivelul unui cont al BPE: X 100 MR3 = GA = M - La nivelul unui capitol sau al unui post din BPE: xj mr3 j = ga j = 100 mj O valoare supraunitar (sau peste 100 procente) a acestui indicator corespunde unui excedent al contului/postului analizat, o valoare unitar (sau GA=100%) unui echilibru iar o valoare subunitar (sub 100%) unui deficit.

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Gradul de acoperire a plilor prin ncasri din contul curent al Romniei n anul 2003 subliniaz, nc o dat, deficitul nregistrat n contul curent al Romniei: X 20551 GA = 100 = 100 = 87,72% M 23428
pe capitole: bunuri i servicii : ga 1 = 82,46%, din care :

bunuri : ga b = 79,79%; servicii : ga s = 102,38% venituri : ga 2 = 34,42% transferuri curente : ga 3 = 646,33% Din cei trei indicatori derivai prezentai, analistul l va alege pe acela care corespunde cel mai bine necesitailor de analiza, avnd in vedere faptul ca gradul de sensibilitate la mrimea dezechilibrului descrete de la mrs1 pana la GA.

2. Dinamica dezechilibrului este analizat n dou feluri. O prim modalitate const n determinarea indicilor soldului prin compararea direct a soldurilor nregistrate n diferite perioade de referin: - la nivelul unui cont al BPE: S IS = 1 100 S0 - la nivelul unui capitol sau al unui post din BPE: s is j = j 1 100 s j0 Observaie: Un astfel de indice nu poate fi stabilit dect dac cele dou solduri comparate poart acelai semn. De aceea, un indice supraunitar (peste 100%) rezultnd din compararea a dou solduri pozitive exprim o cretere a excedentului ceea ce, poate exprima o evoluie favorabil pe cnd un astfel de indice obinut din compararea a dou solduri negative arat o cretere a deficitului balanei, fiind o evoluie nefavorabil pentru ara analizat. Pe total cont curent indicele soldului: 2877 IS = 100 = 177,3% 1623 surprinde accentuarea deficitul cu 77,3% n 2003 anul 2002.

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

Pe capitole: bunuri i servicii : is = 141,7%, din care : bunuri : is b = 143,7%;


servicii : is s = 1240% venituri : is = 127,7% transferuri curente : is = 101,7% n timp ce pentru posturile Bunuri i servicii i, respectiv, Venituri valoarea supraunitar a acestui indice reflect nrutirea dezechilibrului, pentru Transferuri curente tot o valoare supraunitar a indicelui reflect, n condiiile date, o situaie pozitiv, o cretere a excedentului nregistrat de acest post. Datorit ponderii reduse a acestui post n total Cont curent, creterea acestui excedent nu poate ns compensa creterea deficitelor din celelalte posturi i, n special, deficitul balanei comerciale componenta cu cea mai mare contribuie la ncasrile i plile contului curent. O alt modalitate de analiz a dinamicii dezechilibrului dintre ncasrile i plile generate de tranzaciile internaionale const n determinarea indicelui gradului de acoperire a plilor prin ncasri: La nivelul unui cont al BPE: GA1 87,72% IGA = 100 = 100 = 95,03% GA0 92,31% sau v IX 105,5% IGA = v 100 = 100 = 95,03% 111,0% IM Indiferent de modul de calcul, evoluia gradului de acoperire arat o uoar scdere a acestuia (cu 1,7%), sau, n acest caz, o cretere a deficitului contului curent. La nivelul unui capitol sau al unui post din BPE: ga iga j = 1 100 ga0 pe capitole: bunuri i servicii : iga = 95,66%, din care : bunuri : iga b = 94,75%;
servicii : iga s = 102,2% venituri : iga = 73,0% transferuri curente : iga = 96,8%

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Observaie: n vederea unei interpretri corecte, valoarea acestui indice trebuie corelat cu valoarea unui indicator care arat natura debalanei (de exemplu, soldul sau gradul de acoperire al contului). Astfel, o valoare subunitar (sub 100%) a acestui indice poate reflecta o cretere a deficitului (precum n cazul contului curent n exemplul de mai sus) dar i o reducere a excedentului sau o trecere de la o balan excedentar la una deficitar. 3. Analiza structural a dezechilibrului unui cont al BPE se folosete, de obicei, de o mrime relativ numit rata de contribuie la dezechilibrul general. Ea se obine calculnd ponderea deficitelor nregistrate n capitolele (posturile) unui cont n deficitul total, respectiv, ponderea excedentelor pariale n excedentul cumulat de ntregul cont supus analizei. sj 100 RC j = Sj N.B. Dac unele componente ale contului prezint solduri cu alt semn dect soldul general al contului, atunci suma ratelor de contribuie excede 100%, o parte din aceste contribuii fiind contracarate de dezechilibrele n sens invers ale respectivelor componente. De pild, n exemplul de mai devreme, rata de contribuie se poate calcula numai pentru primele dou posturi: 3893 pentru bunuri i servicii: RC1 = 100 = 135,3% 2877 623 100 = 21,65% pentru venituri: RC1 = 2877 Adunnd cele dou rate de contribuie se obine o valoare ce depete 100 procente, artnd faptul c deficitul din primele dou posturi (i, n special, din balana bunurilor i serviciilor) este parial contracarat de excedentul din cel de-al treilea post al contului curent: transferuri curente. Observaie: ntr-o analiz empiric, se poate recurge i la compararea gradului de acoperire a plilor prin ncasrile specifice diferitelor capitole (posturi) ale unui cont, lund eventual ca termen de referin gradul de acoperire specific ntregului cont. 4. Compararea dezechilibrelor din BPE a dou ri se bazeaz pe selectarea atent a indicatorilor relevani. ntr-un context dat, se poate imagina i compararea direct a dou deficite (sau a dou excedente) nregistrate de cele dou ri, evident n acelai an de referin. Mult mai

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

interesant este ns compararea mrimilor relative care arat semnificaia dezechilibrului pentru fiecare economie (pe baza indicatorului S/PIB). Spre exemplu, Frana i Elveia au nregistrat n anul 2000 acelai sold excedentar de 25 mild. USD. Dac n cazul Franei acest excedent reprezint numai 0,7% fa de produsul intern brut, n cazul Elveiei raportul ajunge la 10 procente, subliniind existena unui dezechilibru serios al contului curent. Dac astfel de date nu sunt la ndemn, compararea poate fi fcut i pe baza celorlalte dou mrimi relative care exprim gravitatea dezechilibrului, cel mai uor calculnd gradul de acoperire a plilor prin ncasri (GA).

5.4 ntrebri de control


1. n ce const deosebirea dintre o balan de pli externe i poziia investiional internaional a unei ri? 2. Cum definii rezidena unui subiect economic? Dar centrul su principal de interes economic? 3. Care sunt cele mai importante principii de nregistrare a tranzaciilor ntr-o balan de pli externe? 4. Cum se structureaz BPE potrivit metodologiei FMI? 5. Definii indicatorii statistici care exprim gravitatea dezechilibrului unui cont al BPE. 6. Cum caracterizai evoluia dezechilibrului unei componente a BPE? 7. n ce const analiza structural a dezechilibrului unui cont BPE? 8. Cum se realizeaz compararea dezechilibrelor din BPE a dou ri?

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5.5 Probleme propuse Problema 1


S se analizeze contul curent al BPE a unei ri pentru care se cunosc urmtoarele date (mild Euro):
Poziia 1. CONTUL CURENT A. Bunuri i servicii a. Bunuri (fob) b. Servicii B. Venituri C. Transferuri curente 2002 Credit Debit 20.2 21 14,4 14.6 10,1 ..... .... 5.1 2.1 2.4 ...... ...... 2003 Credit Debit 22 21.5 15.4 10.9 8.8 ..... 5.6 2.1 2.9 ...... .......

Se cere s se completeze tabelul cu datele care lipsesc i s se analizeze dezechilibrul din contul curent ca nivel, structur, precum i n dinamic.

Problema 2
Datele de mai jos caracterizeaz contul curent a dou ri n anul 2003 (miliarde USD): - ara A are ntrri de 240 miliarde i ieiri de 268 miliarde n condiiile n care PIB a fost estimate la 818 miliarde de USD; - ara B are intrri n contul curent de 45 miliarde i ieiri de 52 miliarde, PIB-ul rii fiind estimat la 94 miliarde de USD. S se analizeze comparativ mrimea absolut i relativ a dezechilibrului de cont curent al celor dou ri.

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

Chapter 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS DEFINITIONS AND PRINCIPLES OF REGISTRATION

The Balance of Payments (BoP) is a statistical statement that systematically summarizes, for a specific period of time, the economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world. Transactions consist of those involving: goods, services and incomes; financial claims on and liabilities to the rest of the world; one-sided transactions (transfers). A transaction itself is defined as an economic flow that reflects the creation, transformation, exchange, transfer, or extinction of an economic value. It involves: the change of ownership of goods and/or financial assets; the provision of services; or the provision of labor and/capital. An international transaction consists in an economic flow between a resident and a non-resident economic actor. Residency is a central concept in the measurement of transactions between residents and non-residents. According to the Balance of Payments Manual (BMP5) and the 1993 SNA, this concept is not based on the nationality or legal criteria but on the transactors center of economic interest. Further, because territorial boundaries recognized for political purposes may not always be appropriate for economic purposes, the economic territory of a country is used as the relevant geographical area to which the concept of residence is applied. An institutional unit is a resident unit of a country or economy when it has a centre of economic interest in the economic territory of a country. The economic territory of a country consists of the geographic territory administered by a government. Persons, goods and capital circulate freely within this territory. Included are islands that belong to the country, airspace, territorial waters, and continental shelf lying in international waters over which the country enjoys exclusive rights

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or over which it has, or claims to have, jurisdiction in respect of the right to fish or to exploit fuels or minerals below the seabed. Also included are territorial enclaves such as embassies, consulates, military bases, scientific stations, information or immigration offices and aid agencies, located in other economies and used by the government for diplomatic, military, scientific or other purposes with the formal political agreement of the governments of the economies where these enclaves are physically located. Thus, while territorial enclaves used by foreign governments (or international organizations) may be located within a countrys geographical boundaries, such enclaves are not included in the host countrys economic territory. An enterprise has a centre of economic interest, and thus residence, in an economy when it engages and intends to continue to engage in economic activities on a significant scale either indefinitely or over a long period of time from one or more locations, not necessarily fixed, within the economic territory of that economy. A period of one year is suggested as a guideline for determining residency, but this is not an inflexible rule. Production undertaken outside the economic territory of a resident enterprise by the personnel, plant and equipment of that resident enterprise is treated as part of host country production, and the enterprise is treated as a resident unit (branch or subsidiary) of that country, if the enterprise meets the conditions mentioned in the earlier paragraph. In addition, the enterprise must maintain a complete and separate set of accounts of local activities (that is, income statement, balance sheet, transactions with the parent enterprise), pay income taxes to the host country, have a substantial physical presence, receive funds for enterprise work for the enterprise account, and so forth. If these conditions are met, the enterprise is considered a foreign affiliate. If these conditions are not met, the output of the enterprise should be classified as an export by a resident enterprise. Such production can generate an export only if the production is classified as domestic production (undertaken by a resident even though the physical process takes place outside the economic territory). These considerations also apply to the particular case of construction activity carried out abroad by a resident producer. Special mention should be made of construction involving major specific projects (bridges, dams, power stations, etc.) that often take several years to complete and are carried out and managed by non-resident enterprises through unincorporated site offices. In most instances, site offices will meet the criteria requiring that site office production be treated (as would the production of a branch or affiliate) as the production of a unit resident in the host economy and as part

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

of the production of the host economy rather than as an export of services to that economy. Offshore enterprises, including those engaged in manufacturing processes (including assembly of components manufactured elsewhere), trading and financial activity are residents of the economies in which the offshore enterprises are located. This applies regardless of location in special zones of exemption from customs or other regulations or concessions. The principles used to determine the residency of an enterprise are likewise applicable to an enterprise that operates mobile equipment (such as ships, aircraft, drilling rigs and platforms, and railway rolling stock) outside the economic territory where the enterprise is resident. Such operations may take place in (i) international waters or airspace or (ii) another economy. In the first case (an enterprise with operations taking place in international waters or airspace), the activities should be attributed to the economy in which the operator maintains residence. In the second case (an enterprise with production taking place in another economy), the enterprise may be considered to have a centre of economic interest in the other economy. If operations (such as a railway network) are carried out by an enterprise on a regular and continuing basis in two or more countries, the enterprise is deemed to have a centre of economic interest in each country and thus to have separate resident units in each. The enterprises must also be accounted for separately by the operator and recognized as separate enterprises by tax and licensing authorities in each country of operation. In cases involving the leasing of mobile equipment to one enterprise by another for a long or indefinite period, the lessee enterprise is deemed to be the operator, and activities are attributed to the country where the lessee is resident. A household has a centre of economic interest where it maintains one or more dwellings within the country that members of the household use as their principal residence. All individuals who belong to the same household must be residents of the same economy. If a resident household member leaves the economic territory and returns to the household after a limited period of time, the individual continues to be a resident even if he or she makes frequent journeys outside the economic territory. An individual may cease to be a member of a resident household when he or she works continuously for one year or more in a foreign country. Even if an individual continues to be employed and paid by an enterprise that is resident in his or her home country, that person should normally be treated as a resident in the host country if he or she works continuously in the host country for one year or more.

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Civil servants (including diplomats) and military personnel employed abroad in government enclaves continue to have centers of economic interest in their home countries while, and however long, they work in the enclaves. They continue to be residents in their home economies even if they live in dwellings outside of these enclaves. Because embassies and consulates are considered extraterritorial to the economies in which they are located, the compensation received by host country (local) staff is classified as payments of income to residents by non-residents. However long they study abroad, students should be treated as residents of their home economy, provided they remain members of households in their home economies. In these circumstances, their centers of economic interest remain in their economies of origin, rather than in the economies where they study. Medical patients abroad are also treated as residents of their economies of origin, even if their stays are one year or more, as long as they remain members of households in their economies of origin. Any other individual who moves to another economy and stays, or expects to stay, for a year or more, is considered to undergo a change of centre of economic interest, that is, he or she is considered to be a migrant. Refugees are persons displaced from their home economies by either natural disasters or other causes (such as persecution or conflict). Such displacement to other economies may be for a short period or on a long-term basis. In the case of short-term displacement, refugees continue to be residents of their home economies; however if the displacement is for a long period and the refugees change their centre of economic interest, they are considered to be migrants and thus no longer residents of their original economies.
Principles of registration: 1. Valuation of transactions Market price should be used as the basis for valuation of transactions in international trade in services. Thus, transactions will generally be valued at the actual price agreed on by the supplier and the consumer. BPM5 identifies some of the more common circumstances under which it may not be possible to establish a market price and recommends that in such circumstances it is appropriate to develop a proxy measure, if possible by analogy with known market prices established under conditions that are considered essentially the same as those pertaining to the un-priced transaction. Particular problems may arise in valuing international

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transactions between related enterprises integrated under the same management but situated in different economies1. Transactions may not be market transactions because there is a lack of independence among the parties to the exchange, and the prices used in portraying such transactions in the books of the enterprises (called transfer prices) may or may not be market prices. Transfer pricing not based closely on market considerations could be expected to be common among related enterprises conducting business across national boundaries because disparities between taxes and regulations imposed by different governments are a factor in management decisions on the optimum allocation of profits among units.

2. The time of recording transactions The appropriate time to record transactions is the moment of ownership transfer or the time of service provision to the client. This may differ from the time at which payment is made or received. Nevertheless, it is generally agreed that the time of payment is an acceptable approximation of the transaction moment. 3. The convention to a common currency unit Transactions may take place in a range of currencies, including the domestic currency of either the provider or the consumer of the services. To produce meaningful statistics, however, it is necessary to convert all transaction values to a common account unit. Most often, the common unit will be the national currency or an internationally recognized reference unit like the Euro or the US dollar. This facilitates the use of BoP statistics together with other statistics of the domestic economy and, respectively, to develop international comparisons. However, if this currency is subject to significant depreciation when compared to other currencies used in the international transactions, nominal growth of transactions in money terms (current prices) over time may result from this depreciation. A similar effect may be observed if a country is experiencing hyperinflation. In such cases it may be more useful to express all transactions in another, more stable reference currency.
1

Related enterprises are those where there exists a direct investment relationship as described in BPM5 and BD3. BPM5 defines the direct investment relationship as ownership, by a direct investor resident in one economy, of 10 percent or more of the ordinary shares or voting power (for an incorporated enterprise) or the equivalent (for an unincorporated enterprise) of an enterprise resident of another economy. Further, direct investment enterprises comprise those entities that are either directly or indirectly owned by the direct investor.

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Romanian official statistics of international transactions were published in thousands of US dollars up to the end of 2002 and in thousands of euro since 1st of January 2003. The most appropriate exchange rate to be used in converting (translating) values from the transaction currency to the currency of compilation is the market exchange rate prevailing at the time that the transaction takes place. The midpoint between buying and selling rates should be used so that any service charge (the spread between the midpoint and those rates) is excluded. However, because the actual midpoint rate at the time at which the transaction occurs may not be available to the compiler, an accepted practice is to take the average midpoint rate for the period for which the data are being compiled. BPM5 should be consulted for recommendations on conversion where there are multiple official exchange rates, or black or parallel market rates.

4. Double entry system. The basic convention applied in establishing a BoP is that every recorded transaction is represented by two entries with equal values: - one is designated a credit with a positive arithmetic sign; - the other is a debit with a negative sign, as most of the entries in the BoP refer to transactions in which economic values are provided or received in exchange for other economic values; those values consist of real resources (goods, services and income) and financial items. In principle, the sum of all credit entries is identical to the sum of all the debit entries, and the net balance of all entries in the statement is zero. The Structure of the Balance of Payments
A Balance of Payments consists of two main groups of accounts: 1. The current account (above the line account) refers to: - goods and services; - incomes; - current transfers. 2. The capital and financial account (under the line account) refers to: - capital transfers and acquisition/disposal of non-produced and non-financial assets; - financial assets and liabilities net entries. A detailed classification of the standard components is presented in table 5.2.

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

The Romanian Balance of Payments Structure


Table 5.2 - mil. Euro
ITEM 1.CURRENT ACCOUNT
(A+B+C)

2002 (January-June) 2003 (January-June)* Credit Debit Balance Credit Debit Balance 8980 9959 -979 9699 10945 -1246 8024 6934 1090 428 150 512 188 768 4210 21 4189 0 9341 8200 1141 411 181 549 511 107 3147 1 3146 84 -1317 -1206 -51 17 -31 -37 -323 661 1063 20 1043 -84 8673 7497 1176 491 161 524 158 868 3021 131 2890 0 10255 9053 1202 455 182 565 543 147 1602 3 1599 173 -1582 -1556 -26 36 -21 -41 -385 721 1419 128 1291 -173

A. Goods and services a. Goods (fob) b. Services - Transportation - Tourism - Other services B. Incomes C. Current transfers 2. CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT (A+B) A. Capital account B. Financial account 3. NET ERRORS AND

OMISSIONS * Provizional data Data source: Monthly Buletin of the National bank of Roumania, nr. 6/2003

The general balance of payments of a country is perfectly balanced at the end of a year. The current account imbalance (over the line surplus or deficit) is regulated by a reverse imbalance of the financial and capital account (under the line deficit or surplus).

Statistical analysis of an Account of the Balance of Payments By noting: - xj all the entries in the credit side of the BoP (all the incomes similar to export incomes), - mj all the entries in the debit side of the BoP (all the payments similar to export payments), and - sj the balance or the net position of the balance of a given item j = 1,k of the BoP.

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sj = xj mj

>0

=> surplus (positive imbalance)

= 0 => balance (equilibrium) < 0 => deficit (negative imbalance) As a group of chapters/positions/items of the BoP forms an account, one can write: S = X M = x j m j = ( x j m j ) = s j Four groups of indicators can be used in order to examine the data of a BPs account: 1. indicators of the relative significance of a imbalance; 2. indicators illustrating the evolution of an imbalance; 3. indicators of structural analysis of a BP account imbalance; 4. indicators of international comparative analysis.

1.The relative significance of an imbalance can be expressed by three tools: a) comparing the balance to the gross domestic product (GDP) per net domestic product (GNP): sj S and, rarely, rs1 = 100 RS 1 = 100 GDP GDP A 3% up to 5% of the GDP is an acceptable imbalance.
b) comparing the net position in a balance to the value of the total transactions: sj S rs 2 = 100 RS 2 = 100 xj + mj X +M and, often, up to 10% is an acceptable imbalance. c) the percentage coverage of payments by incomes xj X ga j = 100 GA = 100 mj M and, respectively, GA > 100% is corresponding to a positive imbalance (surplus); GA = 100% when incomes equal payments; GA > 100% if incomes cover partly the corresponding payments (the case of a negative imbalance or deficit).

Analiza statistic a Balanei de Pli Externe

2.The evolution of an imbalance is shown by index numbers that compare data of different years. a) If there are registered imbalances with the same arithmetical sign in the two periods, one can directly compare the surpluses/deficits: S IS = 1 100 S0
b) The change over the time of an imbalance is generally expressed by the index of percentage coverage: X M GA1 IGA = 100 = 1 : 1 100 GA0 X0 M0 IGA > 100% - a positive evolution: current coverage is higher than in the reference; IGA = 100% - a stationary (unchanged) coverage ratio of payments by incomes; IGA < 100% - a negative trend: a decrease of the percentage coverage in the current year as compared to the reference period. Remark: The interpretation of IGA has to be combined with value data about imbalances.

3.Structural analysis of a BP account imbalance The contribution of an item to the account imbalance: sj xj mj RC j = 100 = 100 S X M This formula is applicable only to items showing the same sign of imbalance as that of the BoP account. RC j = 100% if all the items contribute to the general imbalance;

RC j > 100% if some of the accounts items show the other sign of
the imbalance.

4.International comparative analysis refers usually to indicators of relative significance of imbalance in the compared countries. Remark: A direct comparison of imbalances does not help very much in the analysis. Only comparing countries with the same economic and financial potentials, or having the same total value of international transactions allow for: S IS A / B = A that can be higher, equal or lower than 1. SB

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The International Investment Position

The International Investment Position (IIP) is a balance sheet of the stock of external financial assets and liabilities. It refers to: financial claims on non-residents; financial liabilities to non-residents; monetary gold and special drawing rights (SDRs). By convention, land and other immovable tangibles (except those owned by extraterritorial units) are treated as the property of economic entities of the economies in which the immovable tangibles are located. Therefore, a non-resident owner has a financial claim on the resident entity to which the ownership of such an asset is attributed rather than ownership of the actual non-financial asset. The IIP at the end of a specific period (year) reflects financial transactions, valuation changes and other adjustments that affect the level of assets and/or liabilities that occurred during the period. Components of IIP are classified upon two criteria (dimension): a) According to the functional categories, and in concordance with the income components of the current account and the financial account in the BP, distinction is made between: - Direct investment is subdivided into: Equity capital plus reinvestment earnings and other capital (inter-company debt); Claims on, and liabilities to affiliated enterprises. - Portfolio investment is classified by instrument: Equity securities; Debt securities; Financial derivatives. - Other investments are classified as well by instrument and then by sector. Included are trade credits, loans, currency and deposits, other assets and liabilities. - Reserve assets comprise monetary gold, SDRs, reserve position in the IMF, foreign exchange assets and other claims. b) According to the institutional categories, the assets and liabilities of an economy connected to the rest of the world are grouped into four sectors: - General Government; - Monetary Authority; - Banking sector; - Other sectors.
The net IIP that in external financial assets minus external liabilities often is used to analyze developments in the performance of an economy with regard to the rest of the world as of a specific reference date.