Briefing

Quantified Risk Assessment Techniques - Part 3 Fault Tree Analysis - FTA

Health & Safety Briefing No. 26c October 2010

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Introduction
Other Health and Safety Briefings have discussed Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Event Tree Analysis: Risk Assessment Techniques - Part 1 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis - FMEA Risk Assessment Techniques - Part 2 Event Tree Analysis - ETA This is the third briefing note to describe a specific risk assessment technique, Fault Tree Analysis - FTA. It must be emphasised that this brief treatment is intended to be illustrative rather than definitive.

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

This is a graphical technique that provides a systematic description of the combinations of possible occurrences in a system, which can result in an undesirable outcome. This method can combine hardware failures and human failures. The most serious outcome such as explosion, toxic release, etc. is selected as the Top Event. A fault tree is then constructed by relating the sequences of events, which individually or in combination, could lead to the Top Event. This may be illustrated by considering the probability of a crash at a road junction and constructing a tree with AND and OR logic gates. The tree is constructed by deducing in turn the preconditions for the top event and then successively for the next levels of events, until the basic causes are identified. Example: Crash at Main Road Junction

Figure 2: Quantification of FTA Probability Scale 1 in 10 1 in 100 1 in 1000 1 in 10000 1 in 100000 1 in 1 million Frequent Probable Occasional Remote Improbable Extremely remote Quantification of Fault Trees Top Event Crash at main road junction Crash Probability = 0.001311 or approximately 1 in 1000. If 6000 cars use the side road every year, then it is expected that 6-7 crashes per year may occur.

And

Car at main road junction P=0.01 Or

Side road car fails to stop

P=0.1311

Side road car driver did not stop

Side road car driver could not stop

P=0.12

Or

P=0.0111

Or

Driving too fast P=0.1

Driver too ill P=0.01

Vision obscured P=0.01

Road too slippery P=0.01

Brake failure P=0.001

Tyres worn P=0.0001

By ascribing probabilities to each event, the probability of a Top Event can be calculated. This requires knowledge of probable failure rates. At an OR gate the probabilities must be added to give the probability of the next event, whereas at an AND gate, the probabilities are multiplied. This is a powerful technique for identifying the failures that have the greatest influence on bringing about the Top Event.

Human Error and FTA

The human error contribution to overall system failure can be included in a Fault Tree Analysis, if human error probabilities are described in the same terms as component and hardware failures. To include human error, a detailed Task Analysis is first required, breaking down the detail of the actions to be done, taking account of conditions, speed of operation and the correct sequencing of individual actions. Possible deviations can then be identified. After allowing for shaping factors, which influence individual performance, (such as skill, stress etc.), and recovery factors, (most human errors are recoverable), the contribution of human error can be estimated, by using data on human error rates.

References and Further Reading

Cox & Tait (1998) Reliability, Safety & Risk Management - Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, ISBN 0750640162 James Reason (1990) Human Error - Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0521314194 Reducing Error and Influencing Behaviour HSG48 1999, ISBN 9780717624522 HSE Books IEC 61025 ed. 2.0 - Procedures and Symbols for FTA. Describes fault tree analysis and provides guidance on its application to perform an analysis, identifies appropriate assumptions, events and failure modes, and provides identification rules and symbols. BS EN 61025:2007 - Fault tree analysis (FTA) - http://shop.bsigroup.com/en/ProductDetail/?pid=000000000030101041 BSR/IEC/ASQC D1025-199x - Describes fault tree analysis, and gives guidance on its applications, as follows: by defining basic principles; by providing the steps necessary to perform an analysis; by identifying appropriate assumptions, events, and failures modes; and by providing identification rules and symbols. http://www.nssn.org/search/DetailResults. aspx?docid=739343&selnode=

These Briefings contain a summary of recent Health & Safety issues, provided for general information purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal advice. The IET has tried to make the Briefings accurate and informative, but they have not been prepared by a lawyer and may not constitute an up-to-date summary of the law. The IET accepts no liability for your use of these Briefings. Further details and information on broader Health & Safety issues can be obtained from the Governments Health and Safety Executive. Legal advice should be obtained on any specific issues.
The IET is unable to provide further information on this topic. Please contact the HSE http://www.hse.gov.uk/

Briefing

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