1

Assessingthegreenhouseimpactof 1
naturalgas 2
L.M.Cathles,June6,2012 3
Abstract 4
Theglobalwarmingimpactofsubstitutingnaturalgasforcoalandoiliscurrentlyin 5
debate.Weaddressthisquestionherebycomparingthereductionofgreenhousewarming 6
thatwouldresultfromsubstitutinggasforcoalandsomeoiltothereductionwhichcould 7
beachievedbyinsteadsubstitutingzerocarbonenergysources.Weshowthatsubstitution 8
ofnaturalgasreducesglobalwarmingby40%ofthatwhichcouldbeattainedbythe 9
substitutionofzerocarbonenergysources.Atmethaneleakageratesthatare~1%of 10
production,whichissimilartotodaysprobableleakagerateof~1.5%ofproduction,the 11
40%benefitisrealizedasgassubstitutionoccurs.Forshorttransitionstheleakagerate 12
mustbemorethan10to15%ofproductionforgassubstitutionnottoreducewarming, 13
andforlongertransitionstheleakagemustbemuchgreater.Buteveniftheleakagewasso 14
highthatthesubstitutionwasnotofimmediatebenefit,the40%ofzerocarbonbenefit 15
wouldberealizedshortlyaftermethaneemissionsceasedbecausemethaneisremoved 16
quicklyformtheatmospherewhereasCO
2
isnot.Thebenefitsofsubstitutionare 17
unaffectedbyheatexchangetotheocean.CO
2
emissionsarethekeytoanthropogenic 18
climatechange,andsubstitutinggasreducesthemby40%ofthatpossiblebyconversionto 19
zerocarbonenergysources.Gassubstitutionalsoreducestherateatwhichzerocarbon 20
energysourcesmustbeeventuallyintroduced. 21
Introduction 22
Inarecentcontroversialpaper,Howarthetal.(2011)suggestedthat,becausemethaneisa 23
farmorepotentgreenhousegasthancarbondioxide,theleakageofnaturalgasmakesits 24
greenhouseforcingasbadandpossiblytwiceasbadascoal,andtheyconcludedthatthis 25
underminesthepotentialbenefitofnaturalgasasatransitionfueltolowcarbonenergy 26
sources.Others(Hayhoeetal.,2009;Wigley,2011)havepointedoutthatthewarming 27
causedbyreducedSO
2
emissionsascoalelectricalfacilitiesareretiredwillcompromise 28
someofthebenefitsoftheCO
2
reduction.Wigley(2011)hassuggestedthatbecausethe 29
impactofgassubstitutionforcoalonglobaltemperaturesissmallandtherewouldbe 30
2

somewarmingasSO
2
emissionsarereduced,thedecisionoffueluseshouldbebasedon 31
resourceavailabilityandeconomics,notgreenhousegasconsiderations. 32
Someofthesesuggestionshavebeenchallenged.ForexampleCathlesetal.(2012)have 33
takenissuewithHowarthetal.forcomparinggasandcoalintermsoftheheatcontentof 34
thefuelsratherthantheirelectricitygeneratingcapacity(coalisusedonlytogenerate 35
electricity),forexaggeratingthemethaneleakagebyafactorof3.6,andforusingan 36
inappropriatelyshort(20year)globalwarmingpotentialfactor(GWP).Neverthelessit 37
remainsdifficulttoseeinthepublishedliteraturepreciselywhatbenefitmightberealized 38
bysubstitutinggasforcoalandtheuseofmetricssuchasGWPfactorsseemstocomplicate 39
ratherthansimplifytheanalysis.Thispaperseekstoremedythesedeficienciesby 40
comparingthebenefitsofnaturalgassubstitutiontothoseofimmediatelysubstituting 41
lowcarbonenergysources.Thecomparativeanalysisgoesbacktothefundamental 42
equationanddoesnotusesimplifiedGWPmetrics.Becauseitisanullanalysisitavoids 43
thecomplicationsofSO
2
,carbonblack,andthecomplexitiesofCO
2
removalfromthe 44
atmosphere.Itshowsthatthesubstitutionofnaturalgasforcoalandsomeoilwould 45
realize~40%ofthegreenhousebenefitsthatcouldbehadbyreplacingfossilfuelswith 46
lowcarbonenergysourcessuchaswind,solar,andnuclear.Inthelongtermthisgas 47
substitutionbenefitdoesnotdependonthespeedofthetransitionorthemethaneleakage 48
rate.Ifthetransitionisfaster,greenhousewarmingisless.Iftheleakageisless,the 49
reductionofwarmingduringthesubstitutionperiodisgreater,butregardlessoftherateof 50
leakageorthespeedofsubstitution,naturalgasachieves~40%ofthebenefitsoflow 51
carbonenergysubstitutionafewdecadesaftermethaneemissionsassociatedwithgas 52
productioncease.Thebenefitofnaturalgassubstitutionisadirectresultofthedecrease 53
inCO
2
emissionsitcauses. 54
ThecalculationmethodsusedherefollowWigley(2011),butarecomputedusing 55
programsofourowndesignfromtheequationsandparametersgivenbelow.Parameters 56
aredefinedthatconvertscenariosfortheyearlyconsumptionofthefossilfuelstothe 57
yearlyproductionofCO
2
andCH
4
.Thesegreenhousegasesarethenintroducedintothe 58
atmosphereandremovedusingacceptedequations.Radiativeforcingsarecalculatedfor 59
thevolumetricgasconcentrationsastheyincrease,theequilibriumglobaltemperature 60
3

changeiscomputedbymultiplyingthesumoftheseforcingsbytheequilibriumsensitivity 61
factorcurrentlyfavoredbytheIPCC,andtheincrementsofequilibriumtemperature 62
changeareconvertedtotransienttemperaturechangesusingatwolayeroceanthermal 63
mixingmodel. 64
EmissionScenarios 65
GreenhousewarmingisdrivenbytheincreaseintheatmosphericlevelsofCO
2
,CH
4
and 66
othergreehousegasesthatresultfromtheburningoffossilfuels.Between1970and2002, 67
worldenergyconsumptionfromallsources(coal,gas,oil,nuclear,hydroandrenewables) 68
increasedattherateof2.1%peryear.Intheyear2005sixandahalfbillionpeople 69
consumed~440EJ(EJ=exajoules=10
18
joules,1joule=1.055Btu;EIA,2011)ofenergy. 70
Oilandgassupplied110EJeach,coal165EJ,andothersources(hydro,nuclear,and 71
renewablessuchawindandsolar)55EJ(MiniCAMscenario,Clark,2007).In2100the 72
worldpopulationisprojectedtoplateauat~10.5billion.Iftheperpersonconsumption 73
thenisattodaysEuropeanaverageof~7kWp
1
,globalenergyconsumptionin2100 74
wouldbe2300EJperyear(74TW).Westartwiththefuelconsumptionpatternat2005 75
ADandgrowitexponentiallysothatitreaches2300EJperyearattheendofatransition 76
period.Attheendofthetransitiontheenergyissuppliedalmostentirelybylowcarbon 77
sourcesinallcases,butinthefirsthalfofthetransition,whichwecallthegrowthperiod, 78
hydrocarbonconsumptioneitherincreasesonthecurrenttrajectory(thebusinessas 79
usualscenario),increasesatthesameequivalentratewithgassubstitutedforcoalandoil 80
(asubstitutegasscenario),ordeclinesimmediately(thelowcarbonfastscenario).Coal 81
useisphasedoutatexactlythesamerateinthesubstitutegasandlowcarbonfast 82
scenarios,sothatthereductionofSO
2
andcarbonblackemissionsisexactlythesamein 83
thesetwoscenariosandthereforisnotafactorwhenwecomparethereductionin 84
greenhousewarmingforthesubstitutegasandthelowcarbonfastscenarios. 85
Figure1showsthethreefuelscenariosconsideredfora100yeartransition: 86
- Infirsthalf(growthperiod)ofthebusinessasusualscenario(AinFigure1),fossil 87
fuelconsumptionincreases2.9foldfrom440EJ/yrin2005to1265EJ/yroverthe 88
4

50yeargrowthperiod,andthendeclinesto205.6EJ/yrafterthefulltransition.The 89
mixofhydrocarbonsconsumedattheendofthetransitionproducesCO
2
emissions 90
atthesame4.13GtC/yrrateasattheendoftheotherscenarios.Thetotalenergy 91
consumptiongrowsat2.13%peryearinthegrowthperiod,andat1.2%overthe 92
declineperiod.Thegrowthperiodisashifted(tostartin2005),slightlysimplified, 93
exponentialversionoftheMiniCAMscenarioinClark(2007).Weincreasethe 94
hydrocarbonconsumptionbythesamefactorsasintheMiniCAMscenario,and 95
determinetherenewablegrowthbysubtractingthehydrocarbonenergy 96
consumptionfromthistotal.Thegrowthdeclinecombinationissimilartothebase 97
scenariousedbyWigley(2011). 98
- Inthesubstitutegasscenario(BinFigure1),gasreplacescoalandnewoil 99
consumptionoverthegrowthperiod,andisreplacedbylowcarbonfuelsinthe 100
declineperiod.Gasreplacescoalonanequalelectricitygenerationbasis 101
(H
gas
=H
coal
R
coal
/R
gas
=234EJy
1
,seeTable1),andgasreplacesnewoil(165EJy
1
) 102
onanequalheatcontentbasis.Gasuseattheendofthegrowthperiodisthus729 103
EJy
1
,ratherthan330EJy1inthebusinessasusualscenario.Thegrowthof 104
renewableenergyconsumptionisgreaterthanin(A).Overtheensuingdecline 105
period,oilconsumptiondropsto75EJy
1
andgasto175EJy
1
. 106
- Inthelowcarbonfastscenario(CinFigure1),lowcarbonenergysourcesreplace 107
coal,newgas,andnewoiloverthegrowthperiod,andgasusegrowsandoiluse 108
decreasessothattheconsumptionattheendisthesameasinthesubstitutegas 109
scenario. 110
Thesescenariosareintendedtoprovideasimplebasisforassessingthebenefitsof 111
substitutinggasforcoal;theyareintendedtobeinstructiveandrealisticenoughtobe 112
relevanttofuturesocietaldecisions.Thequestiontheyposeis:Howfarwillsubstituting 113
gasforcoalandsomeoiltakeustowardthegreenhousebenefitsofanimmediateandrapid 114
conversiontolowcarbonenergysources. 115
5

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
A. Business as Usual
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
E
J
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
B. Subst i ute Gas
no C
Coal
Gas
Oil
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 25 50 75
C. Low Carbon Fast
100
years af er 2005
55
110
165
110
330
330
440
165
55.6
75
75
2094.4
2050
2050
729
371
165
175
75
110
165
175
75
G
r
o
w
t
h
P
e
r
i
o
d
D
e
c
l
i
n
e
P
e
r
i
o
d
990
440 EJ
1265 EJ
2300 EJ
116
Figure1Threefuelconsumptionscenarioscomparedinthispaper:(A)Fossilfueluseinthebusinessasusual 117
scenariocontinuesthepresentgrowthinfossilfuelconsumptionintheinitial50yeargrowthperiodbeforelow 118
carbonenergysourcesreplacefossilfuelsinthedeclineperiod.(B)Inthesubstitutegasscenario,gasreplaces 119
coalsuchthatthesameamountofelectricityisgenerated,andsubstitutesfornewoilonanequalheatenergy 120
basis.(C)Inthelowcarbonfastscenario,lowcarbonenergysourcesimmediatelysubstituteforcoalandnewoil 121
andgasinthegrowthperiod,andgasusedeclinesandsubstitutesforoilinthedeclineperiod.Numbersindicate 122
theconsumptionofthefuelsinEJperyearatthestart,midpoint,andendofthetransitionperiod.Thetotal 123
energyuseisthesameinallscenariosandisindicatedatthestart,midpoint,andendbytheboldblacknumbers 124
in(C). 125
6

Table1.Parametersusedinthecalculations.Iistheenergycontentofthefuel,Rtheefficiencyofconversionto 126
electricity,and and,thecarbonandmethaneemissionsfactors.Seetextfordiscussion. 127
I[EJGt
1
] R[EJ
e
EJ
1
] [Gt
C
EJ
1
] [Gt
CH4
EJ
1
]
Gas 55 0.6 0.015 1.8x10
4
foraleakageof1%ofproduction
Oil 43 0.020
Coal 29 0.32 0.027 1.2x10
4
for5m
3
/t
128
ComputationMethodandParameters 129
Table1summarizestheparametersusedinthecalculations.I[EJGt
1
],givestheheat 130
energyproducedwheneachfossilfuelisburnedinexajoules(10
18
joules)pergigaton(10
9
131
tons)ofthefuel.Thevaluesweusearefromhttp://www.natural 132
gas.com.au/about/references.html.Theenergydensityofcoalvariesfrom2537GJ/t, 133
dependingontherankofthecoal,but29GJ/tisconsideredagoodaveragevaluefor 134
calculations. 135
R[EJ
e
EJ
1
]istheefficiencywithwhichgasandcoalcanbeconvertedtoelectricityin 136
exajoulesofelectricalenergyperexajouleofheat.Gascangenerateelectricitywithmuch 137
greaterefficiencythancoalbecauseitcandriveagasturbinewhoseeffluentheatcanthen 138
beusedtodriveasteamgenerator.Lookingforward,olderlowefficiencycoalplantswill 139
likelybereplacedbyhigherefficiencycombinedcyclegasplantsofthiskind.Theelectrical 140
conversionefficienciesweadoptinTable1arethoseselectedbyHayhoeetal.(2002,their 141
TableII). 142
Thecarbonemissionfactorsingigatonsofcarbonreleasedtotheatmosphereperexajoule 143
ofcombustionheat,[Gt
C
EJ
1
],listedinthefourthcolumnofTable1arethefactors 144
compiledbytheEPA(2005)andusedbyWigley(2011). 145
Finally,themethaneemissionfactors,[Gt
CH4
EJ
1
]inthelastcolumnofTable1are 146
computedfromthefractionofmethanethatleaksduringtheproductionanddeliveryof 147
naturalgasandthevolumeofmethanethatisreleasedtotheatmosphereduringmining 148
andtransportofcoal: 149
7

] Gt EJ [ ] Gt Gt [ ] EJ Gt [
-1
burned - CH4
-1
burned - CH4 vented - CH4
-1
CH4
I L
gas
=
(1a)
150
] Gt EJ [ ] m [ ] t m [ ] EJ Gt [
-1
burned - coal
-3
CH4 4 CH4
-1
mined - coal
3
CH4
-1
CH4
I t V
CH coal
=
. (1b)
151
Thedensityofmethanein(1b)
CH4
=0.71x10
3
tonsperm
3
.Wetreatthemethanevented 152
totheatmosphereduringtheproductionanddistributionofnaturalgas,L,parametrically 153
inourcalculations.Thenaturalgasleakage,L,isdefinedasthemassfractionofnaturalgas 154
thatisburned. 155
Weassumeinourcalculationsthat5m
3
ofmethaneisreleasedpertonofcoalmined.The 156
leakageofmethaneduringcoalmininghasbeenreviewedindetailbyHowarthetal. 157
(2011)andWigley(2011).Combiningleakagesfromsurfaceanddeepmininginthe 158
proportionsthatcoalisextractedinthesetwoprocesses,theyarriveat6.26m
3
/tand4.88 159
m
3
/trespectively.Thevalueweuseliesbetweenthesetwoestimates,andappearstobea 160
reasonableestimate(e.g.,seeSaghafietal.,1997),althoughsomehaveestimatedmuch 161
highervalues(e.g,Hayhoeetal.,2002,suggest~23m
3
/t). 162
TheyearlydischargeofCO
2
(measuredintonsofcarbon)andCH
4
totheatmosphere, 163
Q
C
[Gt
C
y
1
]andQ
CH4
[Gt
CH4
y
1
],arerelatedtotheheatproducedinburningthefuels,H[EJy

164
1
]inFigure1: 165
] EJ Gt [ ] y EJ [ ] y Gt [
-1
C
-1 -1
C
H Q
C
= (2a) 166
] EJ Gt [ ] y EJ [ ] y Gt [
-1
CH4
-1 -1
C 4
, H Q
CH
= (2b)

167
ThevolumefractionsofCO
2
andCH
4
addedtotheatmosphereinyeart
i
by(1)are: 168
( )
| | t M
V
V
W
W
W
W
Q
y ppmv t X
atm
air
CO
CO
air
C
CO
C
i CO
2
2
2 15 1 -
C
1
2
10 ] y Gt [
] [ = A

(3a) 169
( )
| | t M
V
V
W
W
Q
y ppbv t X
atm
air
CH
CH
air
CH
i CH
4
4
18 1 -
CH4 4
1
4
10 ] y Gt [
] [ = A

. (3b) 170
8

HereM
atm
[t]=5.3x10
15
tonsisthemassoftheatmosphere,W
CO2
isthemolecularweightof 171
CO
2
(44g/mole),andV
CO2
isthemolarvolumeofC
O2
,etc.In(2a)thefirstmolecularweight 172
ratioconvertstheyearlymassadditionofcarbontotheyearlymassadditionofCO
2
,and 173
thesecondmassfractionratioconvertsthistothevolumefractionofCO
2
inthe 174
atmosphere.WeassumethegasesareidealandthusV
CO2
=V
air
. 175
Eachyearlyinputofcarbondioxideandmethaneisassumedtodecaywithtimeasfollows: 176
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
186 . 1 51 . 18 9 . 172
2
2 2 2
186 . 0 338 . 0 259 . 0 217 . 0
t t t
CO
CO i CO i CO
e e e t f
t f t X t t X

+ + + =
A = + A

(4a) 177
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
12
4
4 4 4
t
CH
CH i CH i CH
e t f
t f t X t t X

=
A = + A
, (4b) 178
wheretistimeinyearsaftertheinputofayearlyincrementofgasatt
i
.Thesedecayrates 179
arethoseassumedbytheIPCC(2007,Table2.14).The12yeardecaytimeformethanein 180
(4b)isaperturbationlifetimethattakesintoaccountchemicalreactionsthatincrease 181
methaneslifetimeaccordingtotheIPCC(2007,2.10.3.1).ThedecayofCO
2
describedby 182
(4a)doesnotaccountforchangeswithtimeinthecarbonatebicarbonateequilibrium 183
(suchasdecreasingCO
2
solubilityasthetemperatureoftheoceansurfacewaters 184
increases)whichbecomeimportantathigherconcentrationsofatmosphericCO
2
(seeNRC, 185
2011;Ebyetal.,2009).Equation(4a)thusprobablyunderstatestheamountofCO
2
that 186
willberetainedintheatmospherewhenwarminghasbecomesubstantial. 187
Theconcentrationofcarbondioxideandmethaneintheatmosphereasafunctionoftimeis 188
computedbysummingtheadditionseachyearandthedecayedcontributionsfromthe 189
additionsinpreviousyears: 190
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

=
A + A =
A + A =
1
1
4 4 4 4
1
1
2 2 2 2
i
j
j i CH j CH i CH i CH
i
j
j i CO j CO i CO i CO
t t f t X t X t X
t t f t X t X t X
, (5) 191
9

where ( )
i CO
t X
2
and ( )
i CH
t X
4
arevolumetricconcentrationofCO
2
andCH
4
inppmvandppbv 192
respectively,irunsfrom1tot
tot
wheret
tot
isthedurationofthetransitioninyears,andthe 193
sumtermsontherighthandsidesdoesnotcontributeunlessi2. 194
Theradiativeforcingsforcarbondioxideandmethane,F
CO2
[Wm
2
]andF
CO2
[Wm
2
]are 195
computedusingthefollowingformulaegivenintheIPCC(2001,6.3.5): 196
| |
( ) ( )
( )
| | ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
52 . 1 15 5 5
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2
4
2
2 2 2
2
31 . 5 10 01 . 2 1 ln 47 . 0 ,
, 0 , 0 0 0 036 . 0
0
0
ln 35 . 5
NM M MN MN N M f
N X f N X t X f X X t X m W F
t X
t X t X
m W F
o CH o CH i CH CH CH i CH CH CH
CO
CO i CO
CO
+ + + =
+ + + = A
=
= +
= A

(6) 197
Westartourcalculationswiththeatmosphericconditionsin2005:X
CO2
[t=0]=379ppmv, 198
X
CH4
[t=0]=1774ppbv,andtheN
2
Oconcentration,N
o
=319ppbv.
CH4
isafactorthat 199
magnifiesthedirectforcingofCH
4
totakeintoaccounttheindirectinteractionscausedby 200
increasesinatmosphericmethane.TheIPCC(2007)suggeststheseindirectinteractions 201
increasethedirectforcingfirstby15%andthenbyanadditional25%,withtheresultthat 202

CH4
=1.43.Shindelletal.(2009)havesuggestedadditionalindirectinteractionswhich 203
increase
CH4
to~1.94.ThereiscontinuingdiscussionofthevalidityofShindelletal.s 204
suggestedadditionalincrease(seeHultmanetal.,2011).Wegenerallyuse
CH4
=1.43in 205
ourcalculations,butconsidertheimpactof
CH4
to~1.94whereitcouldbeimportant. 206
Theradiativeforcingofthegreenhousegasadditionsin(6)drivesglobaltemperature 207
change.Theultimatechangeinglobaltemperaturetheycauseis: 208
( )
4 2
1
4 2 CH CO S CH CO
equil
F F T T T A + A = A + A = A

, (7) 209
where
1
S
istheequilibriumclimatesensitivity.WeadopttheIPCC,2007value 8 . 0
1
=

S
, 210
whichisequivalenttoassumingthatadoublingofatmosphericCO
2
[ppmv]causesa3C 211
globaltemperatureincrease. 212
Theheatcapacityoftheoceandelaysthesurfacetemperatureresponsetogreenhouse 213
forcing.Assuming,followingSolomonetal(2011),atwolayeroceanwherethemixed 214
layerisinthermalequilibriumwiththeatmosphere: 215
10

( ) ( )
( )
deep mix
mix
deep
deep mix mix
equil
mix s
mix
mix
T T
t
T
C
T T T T
t
T
C
A A =
c
A c
A A A A =
c
A c

. (8) 216
Hereistheheattransfercoefficientfortheflowofheatfromthemixedlayerintothedeep 217
layerinWK
1
m
2
,and
s
istheheattransfercoefficientintothemixedlayerfromthe 218
atmosphere(andtheinverseoftheequilibriumclimatesensitivity).C
mix
andC
deep
arethe 219
heatstoragecapacitiesperunitsurfaceareaofthemixedanddeeplayersinJK
1
m
2
. 220
Defining
mix
equil
mix mix
T T T A A = ' A ,
deep
equil
mix deep
T T T A A = ' A ,
mix
t t t = ,and
1
=
s mix mix
C t ,wecan 221
write: 222
( )
|
|
.
|

\
|
' A
' A
|
|
.
|

\
|

+
=
|
|
.
|

\
|
' A
' A
c
c


deep
mix
deep mix s deep mix s
s s
deep
mix
T
T
C C C C T
T
t
1 1 1 1
1 1
1


. (9) 223
Fortheimpositionofasuddenincreaseingreenhouseforcingthatwillultimatelyproduce 224
anequilibriumtemperaturechangeof
equil
mix
T A asdescribedby(7),thesolutionto(8)is: 225
( )
)
`

|
|
.
|

\
|
|
.
|

\
|

+ |
.
|

\
|

A = A

mix d mix m
equil
mix mix
e
t
a
e
t
a T T
t t
1 1
exp 1 exp 1 . (10) 226
Heree
m
ande
d
arethemagnitudesoftheeigenvaluesofthematrixin(9),andthe 227
coefficient,a,isdeterminedbytheinitialconditionthatthelayersarenotthermally 228
perturbedbeforetheincrementofgreenhouseforcingisimposed. 229
Insightisprovidedbynotingthattheeigenvaluesandparameterain(10)arefunctionsof 230
theratiosofheattransferandheatstorageparameters
1
s
and
1
mix deep
C C only,andcanbe 231
approximatedtowithin10%: 232
( )
( )
( )
7 . 0
1
1
1
1
1 1
1 1
2
1
1 2 . 0 , 1 344 . 0 483 . 0

=
+ =
s < + =
s
mix deep
d
s m
s s
C C
e
e
a

. (11) 233
11

Itisunlikelythatthatheatwillbetransferredoutthebaseofthemixedlayermore 234
efficientlythanitisintothetopofthemixedlayerbecausethetransferwillbemostly 235
drivenbywindsandcoolingoftheoceansurface.Forthisreasontheheattransfer 236
coefficientratio
1
s
isalmostcertainly1andthereductionoftemperatureisgreatestfor 237
1
1
=

s
.For 1
1
=

s
,theinitialtemperaturechangeinthemixedlayerwillbeabouthalf 238
thechangethatwilloccurwhentheoceanlayersarefullywarmed,andtheresponsetime 239
requiredtoreachthisequilibriumchange(thetimerequiredtoreach2/3
rds
ofthe 240
equilibriumvalue)willbeaboutoftheresponsetimeofthemixedlayer(e.g.,
2
1
1
=

mix
e ). 241
For 1
1
=

s
,theresponsetimeofthedeeplayeristwicetheheatstoragecapacityratio 242
timestheresponsetimeofthemixedlayer:
mix mix deep
C C t
1
2

. 243
Thetransienttemperaturechangecanbecomputedfromtheequilibriumtemperature 244
changein(7)byconvolvinginafashionsimilartowhatwasdonein(5): 245
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( )

|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
|
|
.
|

\
|
A =
1
1
1 1
exp 1 exp 1
i
j
mix d
j i
mix m
j i
j
equil
i
e
t t
a
e
t t
a t T t T
t t

, (12) 246
whereij.Wedonotusetheapproximationsofequation(11)whenwecarryoutthe 247
convolutionin(12).Ratherwesolvefortheactualvaluesoftheeigenvaluesand 248
parameterafromthematrixin(9)ateachyearlyincrementintemperaturechange.For 249
t
mix
=5years,AT
mix
willreach0.483AT
mix
equil
withadecaytimeof2.5yearsandriseto 250
AT
mix
equil
withadecaytimeof200years. 251
Thecurrentconsensusseemstobethat 1
1
=

s
andthetransientthermalresponseis 252
abouthalfthefullequilibriumforcingvalue(NRC,2011,3.3).Theratiooftheheatstorage 253
capacityofthedeeptomixedlayer,
1
mix deep
C C isprobablyatleast20,avalueadoptedby 254
Solomonetal.(2011).Schwartz(2007)estimatedthethermalresponsetimeofthemixed 255
layerat~5yearsfromthetemporalautocorrelationofseasurfacetemperatures.Thismay 256
bethebestestimateofthisparameter,butSchwartznotesthatestimatesrangefrom2to 257
30years.Fortunatelythemoderationoftemperaturechangebytheoceansdoesnot 258
12

impactthebenefitofsubstitutinggasforcoalandoilatall.Itisofinterestindefiningthe 259
coolingthatsubstitutionwouldproduce,however.Wecalculatethetransienttemperature 260
changesforthefullrangeofoceanmoderationparameters. 261
Equations(1)to(10)plus(12),togetherwiththeparametersjustdiscusseddefine 262
completelythemethodsweusetocalculatetheglobalwarmingcausedbythefueluse 263
scenariosinFigure1. 264
0 100 200
C
o
n
c
e
n
t
r
a
t
i
o
n
C
h
a
n
g
e
[
p
p
m
v
c
a
r
b
o
n
d
i
o
x
i
d
e
]
0
500
ACarbon Dioxide [ppmv]
434 ppmv
327
190
Business as usual
Substitute gas
Lowcarbon fast
Lowcarbon fast
S
u
b
s
t
i
t
u
t
e
g
a
s
B
u
s
i
n
e
s
s
a
s
u
s
u
a
l
404
470 ppbv
120
0 100 200
time [years] since 2005
C
o
n
c
e
n
t
r
a
t
i
o
n
C
h
a
n
g
e
[
p
p
b
v
m
e
t
h
a
n
e
]
0
500
AMethane [ppbv]
258
194
113
368
428 ppbv
115
397
359
108
154
115
66
50 year
transition
100 year
transition
200 year
transition
A
B
265
Figure2Changesin(A)carbondioxideand(B)methaneconcentrationscomputedforthethreefuelscenarios 266
showninFigure1andthreedifferenttransitionintervals(50100and200years).Inthisandsubsequentfigures 267
thebluecurvesindicatethebusinessasusualfuelusescenario,thegreencurvesindicatethesubstitutegas 268
scenario,andtheredcurvesthelowcarbonfastscenario.Thenumbersindicatethechangeinconcentrationsof 269
13

CO2andmethanefromthe379ppmvforCO2and1774ppbvforCH4levelspresentintheatmospherein2005. 270
ThecalculationisbasedonL=1%ofgasconsumptionandV=5m
3
methanepertonofcoalburned. 271
Results 272
Figure2showstheadditionsofCO
2
inppmvandmethaneinppbvthatoccurforthe 273
differentfuelconsumptionscenariosshowinFigure1forthethreetransitionperiods(50, 274
100and200years).Themethaneleakageisassumedtobe1%ofconsumption.Fivecubic 275
metersofmethaneareassumedtoleaktotheatmosphereforeachtonofcoalmined.The 276
atmosphericmethaneconcentrationstrackthepatternofmethanereleasequiteclosely 277
becausemethaneisremovedquicklyfromtheatmospherewithanexponentiallydecay 278
constantof12years(equation4b).Ontheotherhand,becauseonlyaportionoftheCO
2
279
introducedintotheatmospherebyfuelcombustionisremovedquickly(seeequation4a), 280
CO
2
accumulatesacrossthetransitionperiodsand,aswewillshowbelow,persistsfora 281
longtimethereafter. 282
0 100 200
time [years]
R
a
d
i
a
t
i
v
e
F
o
r
c
i
n
g
[
W
m
-
2
]
0
5
Methane
Carbon Dioxide
business as usual
substitute gas
low
carbon
fast
40%
41%
42%
283
Figure3RadiativeforcingscalculatedforthecarbondioxideandmethaneadditionsshowninFigure2using 284
equation(6)andassumingCH4=1.43.Thebluecurvesindicatethebusinessasusualscenarioforthe50,100 285
and200yeartransitionperiods,thegreenthesubstitutegasscenario,andtheredthelowcarbonfastscenario. 286
ThenumbersindicatethereductioninCO2forcingachievedbysubstitutinggas,expressedasapercentageofthe 287
reductionachievedbythelowcarbonfastscenario. 288
14

Figure3showstheradiativeforcingscorrespondingtotheatmosphericgasconcentrations 289
showninFigure2usingequation(6).ThemethaneforcingisafewpercentoftheCO
2
290
forcing,andthusisunimportantindrivinggreenhousewarmingforagasleakagerateof 291
1%. 292
Figure4showstheglobalwarmingpredictedfromtheradiativeforcingsinFigure3for 293
variousdegreesofheatlosstotheocean.Wetaketheequilibriumclimatesensitivity
1
s
= 294
0.8(e.g.,adoublingofCO2causesa3Cofglobalwarming).Thefastertransitionsproduce 295
lessglobalwarmingbecausetheyputlessCO
2
intotheatmosphere.Thethermal 296
modulationoftheoceanscanreducethewarmingbyuptoafactoroftwo.Forexample, 297
Figure4Ashowstheglobalwarmingthatwouldresultfromthebusinessasusualscenario 298
iftherewerenoheatlossestotheoceanrangesfrom1.5Cforthe50yeartransitionto 299
3.3Cforthe200yeartransition.Figure4Cindicatesthatheatexchangetotheoceans 300
couldreducethiswarmingbyafactoroftwoforthelongtransitionsandthreeforthe50 301
yeartransition.Awarmingreductionthislargeisunlikelybecauseitassumesextreme 302
parametervalues:adeepoceanlayerwithaheatstorage50timestheshallowmixedlayer, 303
andalongmixingtimefortheshallowlayer(t
mix
=50years).Figure4Bindicatesthemore 304
likelyoceantemperaturechangemoderationbasedonmidrangedeeplayerstorage 305
(
1
mix deep
C C =20)andmixedlayerresponsetime(t
mix
=5years)parametervalues. 306
Theimportantmessageofthisfigureforthepurposesofthispaper,however,isnotthe 307
amountofwarmingthatmightbeproducedbythevariousfuelscenariosofFigure1,but 308
theindicationthatthereductioningreenhousewarmingfromsubstitutinggasforcoaland 309
oilisnotsignificantlyaffectedbyheatexchangewiththeoceanorbythedurationofthe 310
transitionperiod.Thesamepercentreductioninglobalwarmingfromsubstitutinggasfor 311
coalandoilisrealizedregardlessofthedurationofthetransitionperiodorthedegreeof 312
thermalmoderationbytheocean.Thebenefitofsubstitutinggasisapercentorsolessfor 313
theshorttransitions,andtheoceanmoderationreducesthebenefitbyapercentorso,but 314
thebenefitinallcircumstancesremains~38%.Heatlossintotheoceansmayreducethe 315
warmingbyafactoroftwo,butthebenefitofsubstitutinggasisnotsignificantlyaffected. 316
15

317
0
4
business as usual
substitute gas
low
carbon
fast
1% gas leakage
= 1.43
no ocean mixing
1.5 C
2.3 C
3.3 C
1.8 C
2.7 C
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
C
h
a
n
g
e
[
C
]
3
2.4 C
2.0 C
1.3 C
1.4 C
0.8 C
/=1, Cd/Cm=20, tmix=5 yrs
0
0 50 100 200
time [years]
3
0
150
1.7 C
1.4 C
0.9 C
1.1 C
0.5 C
/=1, Cd/Cm=50, tmix=50 yrs
39%
38%
38%
39%
38%
37%
38%
37%
36%
1
2
1
2
1
2
3
A.
B.
C.
318
Figure4.GlobalwarmingproducedbytheforcingsinFigure3computedusingequations(7,10,and12).The 319
bluecurvesindicatetemperaturechangesunderthebusinessasusualscenariofor50,100and200year 320
transitiondurations,andthegreenandredcurvesindicatethetemperaturechangesforthesubstitutegasand 321
lowcarbonfastscenarios.Thecolorednumbersindicatethetemperaturechanges,andtheblacknumbersthe 322
reductionintemperatureachievedbythesubstitutegasscenarioexpressedasafractionofthetemperature 323
reductionachievedbythelowcarbonfastscenario.(A)Thewarmingwhenthereisnothermalinteractionwith 324
theocean(ortheoceanlayersthermallyequilibrateveryquickly).(B)Warmingunderalikelyoceaninteraction. 325
(C)Warmingwithaveryhighoceanthermalinteraction.Theoceanmixingparametersareindicatedin(B)and 326
(C).Allcalculationsassumegasleakageis1%ofconsumptionandtheIPCCmethaneclimatesensitivity. 327
16

Figure5comparesthemethaneforcingofthesubstitutegasscenariototheCO
2
forcingof 328
thebusinessasusualscenarioforthe50and100yeartransitiondurations.Theforcing 329
forthe1%methanecurvesarethesameasinFigure3,butiscontinuedoutto200years 330
assumingthefueluseremainsthesameasattheendoftheofthetransitionperiod. 331
SimilarlythebusinessasusualcurveisthesameasinFigure3continuedoutto200years. 332
Thefigureshowsthatthemethaneforcingincreasesasthepercentmethaneleakage 333
increases,andbecomesequaltotheCO
2
forcinginthebusinessasusualscenariowhenthe 334
leakageis~15%ofconsumptionforthe50yeartransitionand30%ofconsumptionforthe 335
100yeartransition.Attheendofthetransitionthemethaneradiativeforcingsfalltothe 336
levelthatcanbesteadilymaintainedbytheconstantmethaneleakageassociatedwiththe 337
smallcontinuednaturalgasconsumption.TheCO
2
forcingunderthebusinessasusual 338
scenariofallabitandthenriseataslowsteadyrate,reflectingtheproscriptionthat26%of 339
theCO
2
releasedtotheatmosphereisonlyveryslowlyremovedand22%isnotremovedat 340
all(equation3a).ThisslowriseemphasizesthatevenverylowreleasesofCO
2
canbeof 341
concern.Themethaneintheatmospherewouldrapidlydisappearinafewdecadesifthe 342
methaneventingwerestopped,whereastheCO
2
curveswouldflattenbutnotdrop 343
significantly.Finally,Figure5Ashowsthatthegreatermethaneclimatesensitivity 344
proposedbyShindelletal(2009)(
CH4
=1.94)wouldmakea10%methaneventing 345
equivalenttoa15%ventingwith
CH4
=1.43(theIPCCmethaneclimatesensitivity). 346
17

= 1.43
2.5
0
1%
5%
10%
15%
20%
B
u
sin
ess
as
U
su
al
Substitute Gas
= 1.94
10
Leakage rate
[% of consumption]
100 200
time [years]
R
a
d
i
a
t
i
v
e
F
o
r
c
i
n
g
[
W
m
-
2
]
2.5
0
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
50 150
Business as Usual
Substitute Gas
1%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
50 year transition
100 year transition
A.
B.
347
Figure5.RadiativeforcingsofCO2forthebusinessasusualscenario(bluecurves)andforCH4forvariousgas 348
leakageratesinthesubstitutegasscenario(greencurves).The1%methanecurvesandthebusinessasusual 349
curvesarethesameasinFigure3excepttheverticalscaleisexpandedandthecurvesareextendedfromtheend 350
ofthetransitionto200yearsassumingthegasemissionsarethesameasattheendofthetransitionpast100 351
years.Themethaneforcingsplateauatthelevelscorrespondingtotheatmosphericconcentrationsupportedby 352
thesteadyCH4emissions.TheCO2forcingincreasesbecauseanappreciablefractionoftheCO2emissionsare 353
removedslowlyornotatallfromtheatmosphere.ThemethaneforcingsallassumetheIPCCmethaneclimate 354
sensitivity(CH4=1.43)exceptthesingleredcurve,whichassumesthemethaneclimatesensitivitysuggestedby 355
Shindelletal.(2009)(CH4=1.94). 356
18

0 50
time [years]
1.5
0
= 1.43
/=1, Cd/Cm=20, tmix=5 yrs
1%
0.96 C
5%
1.07 C
10%
1.19 C
15%
1.30 C
0 100
1.5
0
1%
1.60 C
10%
1.84 C
20%
2.05 C
0 200
1.5
0
2.69 C
1%
35%
3.48 C
A. 50yr Transition
B. 100yr Transition
C. 200 yr Transition
40%
1%
40%
21%
5%
-6%
17%
39%
-1%
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
C
h
a
n
g
e
[
C
]
B
u
s
i
n
e
s
s
a
s
U
s
u
a
l
S
u
b
s
t
i
t
u
t
e
G
a
s
L
o
w
C
a
r
r
b
o
n
F
a
s
t
357
Figure6.Impactofmethaneleakageonglobalwarmingfortransitionperiodsof(A)50,(B)100,and(C)200 358
years.Astheleakagerate(greenpercentagenumbers)increase,thewarmingofthesubstitutegasscenario 359
(greencurves)increases,thebluebusinessasusualandgreensubstitutegascurvesapproachoneanotherand 360
thencross,andthepercentageofthewarmingreductionattainedbythefastsubstitutionoflowcarbonenergy 361
sourcesdecreaseandthenbecomenegative.Thewarmingsassumethesameexchangewiththeoceanasin 362
Figure4B. 363
Figures6illustrateshowthebenefitsofsubstitutinggasforcoalandoildisappearasthe 364
methaneleakageincreasesabove1%oftotalmethaneconsumption.Thefigureshowsthe 365
globalwarmingcalculatedfortheoceanheatexchangeshowinFigure4B.Asthemethane 366
leakageincreases,thegreensubstitutegasscenariocurvesrisetowardandthenexceedthe 367
bluebusinessasusualcurves,andthebenefitofsubstitutinggasdisappears.Thegas 368
19

leakageatwhichsubstitutinggasforoilandcoalwarmstheearthmorethanthebusiness 369
asusualscenarioissmallest(L~10%)forthe50yeartransitionperiodandlargest 370
(L~35%)forthe200yeartransitionperiod. 371
Figure7summarizeshowthebenefitofgassubstitutiondependsonthegasleakagerate. 372
FortheIPCCmethaneclimatesensitivity(
CH4
=1.43),thebenefitofsubstitutinggasgoesto 373
zerowhenthegasleakageis44%ofconsumption(30%ofproduction)forthe200year 374
transition,24%ofconsumption(19%ofproduction)forthe100yeartransition,and13% 375
ofconsumption(12%orproduction)forthe50yeartransition.FortheShindelletal. 376
climatesensitivitycorrespondingto
CH4
=1.94,thecrossoverforthe50yeartransition 377
occursatagasleakageof~9%ofconsumption,andreasonableoceanthermalmixing 378
reducesthisslightlyto~8%ofconsumption(7.4%ofproduction).Thislastis 379
approximatelythecrossoverdiscussedbyHowarthetal.(2011and2012).Intheirpapers 380
theysuggestamethaneleakagerateashighas8%ofproductionispossible,andtherefor 381
thatnaturalgascouldbeasbad(ifcomparedonthebasisofelectricitygeneration)ortwice 382
asbad(ifcomparedonaheatcontentbasis)ascoaloverashorttransitionperiod.As 383
discussedinthenextsection,aleakagerateashighas8%isdifficulttojustify.Figure7 384
thusshowsthesignificanceofShindellshighermethaneclimatesensitivitytoHowarths 385
proposition.Withoutit,anevenlessplausiblemethaneleakagerateof13%wouldbe 386
requiredtomakegasasbadortwiceasbadascoalintheshortterm.Overthelongerterm, 387
substitutionofgasisbeneficialevenathighleakageratesapointcompletelymissedby 388
Howarthetal. 389
20

0
10
20
30
40
50
0 5 10 15
%
P
e
r
c
e
n
t

l
o
w

f
a
s
t
Leakage[%ofconsumption]
BenefitofGasSubstitution
1to2%leakage
390
Figure7.Thereductionofgreenhousewarmingattainedbysubstitutingnaturalgasforcoalandoil(substitute 391
gasscenario),expressedasapercentageofthereductionattainedbyimmediatelysubstitutinglowcarbonfuels 392
(lowCfastscenario),plottedasafunctionofthegasleakagerate.Atleakagerateslessthan~1%,thebenefitof 393
substitutingnaturalgasis>40%thatofimmediatelysubstitutinglowcarbonenergysources.Thebenefit 394
declinesmorerapidlywithleakageforshorttransitions.ThetopthreecurvesassumeanIPCCmethaneclimate 395
sensitivity(CH4=1.43).Thebottomtwoshowtheimpactofthegreatermethaneclimatesensitivitysuggestedby 396
Shindelletal(2009)(CH4=1.94).Theoceanmixingcurveaddsthesmalladditionalimpactofthermalexchange 397
withtheoceansattherateshowninFigure4BtotheCH4=1.94curveimmediatelyaboveit. 398
Whatisthegasleakagerate 399
Themostextensivesynthesesofdataonfugitivegasesassociatedwithunconventionalgas 400
recoveryisanindustryreporttotheEPAcommissionedbyTheDevonEnergyCorporation 401
(Harrison,2012).Itdocumentsgasleakageduringthecompletionof1578unconventional 402
(shalegasortightsand)gaswellsby8differentcompanieswithareasonable 403
representationacrossthemajorunconventionalgasdevelopmentregionsoftheU.S.Three 404
percentofthewellsinthestudyventedmethanetotheatmosphere.Ofthe1578 405
unconventional(shalegasortightsand)gaswellsintheDevonstudy,1475(93.5%)were 406
greencompletedthatistheywereconnectedtoapipelineinthepreinitialproduction 407
stagesotherewasnoneedforthemtobeeitherventedorflared.Ofthe6.5%ofallwells 408
thatwerenotgreencompleted,54%wereflared.Thus3%ofthe1578wellsstudied 409
ventedmethaneintotheatmosphere. 410
21

Thewellsthatventedmethanetotheatmospheredidsoattherateof765 411
Mcsf/completion.Themaximumgasthatcouldbeventedfromthenongreencompleted 412
wellswasestimatedbycalculatingthesonicventingratefromthechoke(orifice)sizeand 413
sourcegastemperatureofthewell,usingaformularecommendedbytheEPA.Sincemany 414
wellsmightventatsubsonicrates,whichwouldbeless,thisisanupperboundonthe 415
ventingrate.Thetotalventedvolumewasobtainedbymultiplyingthisventingratebythe 416
knowndurationofventingduringwellcompletion.Theseventedvolumesrangedfrom 417
340to1160Mscf,withanaverageof765Mscf.Theventingfromanaverage 418
unconventionalshalegaswellindicatedbytheDevonstudyisthus~23Mscf(=0.03x765 419
Mscf),whichissimilartothe18.33McfEPA(2010)estimatesisventedduringwell 420
completionofaconventionalgaswell(halfventedandhalfflared).Sinceventingduring 421
wellcompletionandworkoverconventionalgaswellsisestimatedat0.01%ofproduction 422
(e.g.,Howarthetal.,2011),thiskindofventingisinsignificantforbothunconventionaland 423
conventionalwells. 424
TheunconventionalgasleakagerateindicatedbytheDevondataisverydifferentfromthe 425
4587MscftheEPA(2010)inferredwasventedduringwellcompletionandworkoverfor 426
unconventionalgaswellsfromtheamountofgascapturedinaverylimitednumberof 427
greencompletionsreportedtothembyindustrythroughtheirGasSTARprogram.In 428
their2010backgroundtechnicalsupportdocumenttheEPAassumedthatthiskindof 429
greencapturewasveryrare,andthatthegaswasusuallyeitherventedorflared. 430
Assumingfurtherthatthegaswasvented50%ofthetime,theEPAconcludedthat4587 431
Mscfwasventedtotheatmosphereandthatunconventionalwellsvent250times 432
(=4587/18.3)moremethaneduringwellcompletionandworkoverthanconventionalgas 433
wells.TheEPA(2010)studyisaBackgroundTechnicalSupportDocumentandnotan 434
officialreport.Itwasprobablyneverintendedtobemorethananoutlineofanapproach 435
andaninitialestimate,andtheEPAhassincecautionedthattheyhavenotreviewedtheir 436
analysisindetailandcontinuetobelievethatnaturalgasisbetterfortheenvironmentthan 437
coal(Fulton,2011).NeverthelesstheEPA(2010)reportsuggestedtomanythatthe 438
leakageduringwellcompletionandworkoverforunconventionalgaswellscouldbea 439
substantialpercentage(~2.5%)ofproduction,andmanyacceptedthissuggestionwithout 440
22

furthercriticalexaminationdespitethefactthatthesafetyimplicationsofthemassive 441
ventingimpliedbytheEPAnumbersshouldhaveraisedquestions(e.g.,Cathlesetal., 442
2012a,b). 443
Onceawellisinplace,theleakageinvolvedinroutineoperationofthewellsiteandin 444
transportingthegasfromthewelltothecustomeristhesameforanunconventionalwell 445
asitisfromaconventionalwell.WhatweknowaboutthisleakageissummarizedinTable 446
2.Routinesiteleaksoccurwhenvalvesareopenedandclosed,andleakageoccurswhen 447
thegasisprocessedtoremovingwaterandinertcomponents,duringtransportationand 448
storage,andintheprocessofdistributiontocustomers.Thefirstmajorassessmentof 449
theseleakswascarriedoutbytheGasResearchInstitute(GRI)andtheEPAin1997and 450
theresultsareshowninthesecondcolumnofTable2.AppendixAofEPA(2010)givesa 451
detailedandveryspecificaccountingofleaksofmanydifferentkinds.Thesenumbersare 452
summedintothesamecategoriesanddiaplayedincolumn3ofTable2.EPA(2011)found 453
similarleakagerates(column4).Skone(2011)assessedleakagefrom6classesofgas 454
wells.WeshowhisresultsforunconventionalgaswellsintheBarnettShaleincolumn5of 455
Table2.Hisotherwellclassesaresimilar.Venkatishetal(2011)carriedoutan 456
independentassessmentthatisgivenincolumn6.Therearevariationsinthese 457
assessments,butoverallaleakageof~1.5%ofproductionissuggested.Additional 458
discussionofthisdataanditscompilationcanbefoundinCathlesetal.(2012)andCathles 459
(2012). 460
Table2.Leakageofnaturalgasthatiscommontobothconventionalandunconventionalgaswellsinperentof 461
gasproduction. 462
GRIEPA
(1997)
EPA
(2010)
EPA
(2011)
Skone
(2011)
Venkatish
eta.(2011)
Routinesiteleaks 0.37% 0.40% 0.39%
Processing 0.15% 0.12% 0.16% 0.21% 0.42%
Transportation&storage 0.48% 0.37% 0.40% 0.40% 0.26%
Distribution 0.32% 0.22% 0.26% 0.22%
Totals 1.32% 1.11% 1.21%
23

463
Basedontheabovereviewthenaturalgasleakagerateappearstobenodifferentduring 464
thedrillingandwellpreparationofunconventional(tightshalesdrilledhorizontallyand 465
hydrofractured)gaswellsthanforconventionalgaswells,andtheoverallleakagefromgas 466
wellsisprobably<1.5%ofgasproduction.Intheircontroversialpapersuggestingthatgas 467
couldbetwiceasbadacoalfromagreenhousewarmingperspective,Howarthetal(2011, 468
2012)suggestedroutinesiteleakscouldbeupto1.9%ofproduction,leakageduring 469
transportation,storage,anddistributioncouldbeupto3.6%orproduction,andgas 470
leakagefromunconventionalgaswellsduringwellcompletionandworkovercouldbe 471
1.9%ofproduction.Adding0.45%leakageforliquidunloadingandgasprocessing,the 472
suggestedgasleakagecouldbe7.9%ofproduction,enoughtoundercutthelogicofitsuse 473
asabridgingfuelinthecomingdecades,ifthegoalistoreduceglobalwarming. 474
ThebasisgivenbyHowarthetal.(2011)fortheirmorethan5foldincreaseinleakage 475
duringtransportation,storage,anddistributionis:(a)aleakageinRussianpipelinesthat 476
occurredduringthebreakupoftheSovietUnionwhichisirrelevanttogaspipelinesinthe 477
U.S.,and(b)adebateontheaccountingofgasinTexaspipelinesthatconcernsroyalties 478
andtaxreturns(Percival,2010).Howarthetal.suggestinthisTexascasethattheindustry 479
isseekingtohidemethanelossesofmorethan5%ofthegastransmitted,butthe 480
proponentsinthearticlestateWedontthinktheyrereallylosingthegas,wejustthink 481
theyrenotpayingforit.Intheir5foldincreaseinroutinegasleaks(fromtheaverage 482
levelinTable2of0.38%to1.9%),Howarthsetal.(2011)citeaGAOstudyofventingfrom 483
wellsinonshoreandoffshoregovernmentleasesthatdoesnotdistinguishventingfrom 484
flaring.Lackingthisdistinction,itisnotsurprisingthatitconflictsdramaticallywiththe 485
summariesinTable2.Wehavealreadydiscussedleakageduringwellcompletionand 486
workoverandnotedthattheDevondataindicateHowarthetal.s1.9%leakageatthis 487
stageishugelyexaggerated(theDevondataindicatestheleakageis~0.01%andsimilarto 488
thatfromconventionalgaswellcompletionsandworkovers). 489
TherehavebeenanumberofpaperspublishedrecentlythatoffersupportforHowarths 490
highleakageestimates.Hughes(2011)reinterpreteddatapresentedinawidely 491
24

distributedNETLpowerpointanalysisbySkone(2011).ByloweringSkonesEstimated 492
UltimateRecoveries(EUR)fortheBarnellShalefrom3Bcfto0.84Bcfwhilekeepingthe 493
sameestimateofleakageduringwellcompletionandgasdelivery,Hughesincreased 494
Skonesleakageestimatesfrom2to6%ofproductionalevelwhichfallsmidwaybetween 495
Howarthslowandhighgasleakageestimates.Howeverleakageisafractionofwell 496
production(awellthatdoesnotproducecannotemit),andthusisitbogustoreducethe 497
EUR(thedenominator)withoutalsoreducingthenumerator(theabsoluteleakageofthe 498
well).Skonesdatamustbeevaluatedonitsownterms,notsimplyadjustedtofitsomeone 499
elsesconclusions. 500
Petronetal.(2012)analyzedairsamplesatthe300mhighBolderAtmospheric 501
Observatory(BAO)towerwhenthewindwastowarditfromacrosstheDenverJulesburg 502
Basin(DJB).Gasesventingfromcondensate(condensedgasfromoilandwetgaswells) 503
stocktanksintheDJBarerichinpropanerelativetomethane,whereastherawnaturalgas 504
ventingfromgaswellsintheDJBcontainverylittlepropane.Fromtheintermediateratio 505
ofpropanetomethaneobservedattheBAOtowerandestimatesofleakagefromthestock 506
tanks,Petroneetal.calculatethattodilutethepropaneleakingfromthestocktankstothe 507
propane/methaneratioobservedatthetower,~4%ofmethaneproducedbygaswellsin 508
theDJBmustventintotheatmosphere.TheairsampledattheBAOtoweriscertainlynot 509
simplyamixofrawnaturalgasandstocktankemissionsfromtheDJBasPetronetal. 510
assume,however.IfthiswerethecasetherewouldbenooxygenintheairattheBAO 511
towerlocation.Thebackgroundatmospheremustcertainlymixinwiththesetwo(and 512
perhapsother)gassources.BackgroundairintheDenverareacontains~1800ppb 513
methaneandverylittlepropane.Mixingwiththebackgroundatmospherecoulddilutethe 514
stocktankemissionstothepropane/methaneratioobservedattheBAOtowerwithno 515
leakagefromgaswellsintheDJBrequiredatall.Contrarytotheirsuggestion,theBAO 516
towerdatareportedbyPetroneetal.placenoconstraintsatallonthegasleakageratesin 517
theDJBwhatsoever.MoredetailsareinCathles(2012). 518
Certainlythereismorewecouldlearnaboutnaturalgasleakagerates.Theissueis 519
complicatedbecausegasisusedinthetransmissionprocesssoshrinkageofproductdoes 520
notequatetoventing.Inadditionthereareconventionsandpracticesthatmakescientific 521
25

assessmentdifficult.Despitethedifficulties,however,itappearsthattheleakagerateis 522
lessthan2%ofproduction. 523
Discussion 524
WehaveverifiedourcomputationsbycomparingthemtopredictionsbyWigleys(2011) 525
publicallyavailableandwidelyusedMAGICCprogram.Althoughtherearesomeinternal 526
differences,Table3showsthatthe~40%reductioningreenhousewarmingwepredictis 527
alsopredictedbyMAGICCwhenscenariossimilartotheoneweconsiderhereareinputto 528
bothMAGICCandourprograms.TheMAGICCcalculationsstartat1990ADsoweconsider 529
thetemperatureincreasesfrom2000totheendoftheperiod.Fueluseisincreasedand 530
reducedlinearlyratherthanexponentially,andthefueluseatthestart,midpoint,andend 531
ofthetransitionsimulationsareslightlydifferentthaninFigure1.Thetemperature 532
changesforthe200yearcycleagreeverywell.WigleysMAGICCtemperaturechange 533
predictionsbecomeprogressivelylowerthanoursasthetransitionintervalisshortened. 534
ThismaybebecauseMAGICCincludesasmalloceanthermalinteraction,whereasthe 535
calculationswereportinTable3donot. 536
Table3.TemperaturechangespredictedbyWiglelys(2011)MAGICCprogramforlinearchangesinfueluse 537
similartothescenariosinFigure1comparedtoequilibrium(nooceanthermalinteraction)globalwarming 538
predictionsbytheprogramdescribedandusedinthispaper.Thefirstthreerowscomparethetemperature 539
changesofthetwoprograms.Thelastrowshowsthereductioningreenhousewarmingachievableby 540
substitutingnaturalgasforcoalandoilasapercentageofthereductionthatwouldbeachievedbytherapid 541
substitutionofallfossilfuelswithlowcarbonenergysources. 542
200yearcycle 100yearcycle 40yearcycle
Program
MAGICC Thispaper MAGICC Thispaper MAGICC Thispaper
Basusual 3.85 3.68 2.3 2.56 1.05 1.5
Swapgas 2.85 2.85 1.65 1.94 0.80 1.12
LowCfast 1.7 1.70 0.85 1.09 0.38 0.58
%reduction 42% 42% 45% 42% 37% 41%
543
26

Incorporationoftheindirectcontributionstomethanesradiativeforcingthrough
CH4
in 544
equation(6)wasvalidatedbycomparingvaluesofGWPcomputedby(13)topublished 545
valuessummarizedinTable4. 546
}
}
=
=
c
A c
c
A c
+
=
t
t
CO CH
CO
CO
t
t
CH CO
CH
CH
CH
dt f MW
ppbv C
F
dt f MW
ppbv C
F
GWP
0
2 4
2
2
0
4 2
4
4
4
] [
] [
(13) 547
GWPistherelativeglobalwarmingimpactofakgofCH4comparedtoakgofCO
2
addedto 548
theatmosphere,whenconsideredoveraperiodoftimet.Theradiativeforcings(F)are 549
definedby(6),theremovalofthegasesfromtheatmosphere(f)by(4aandb),andMW
CO2
550
isthemolecularweightofCO
2
.The
CH4
factorof1.43inthesecondcolumnofTable4 551
combinestheindirectforcingcausedbyCH
4
inducedproductionofozone(25%according 552
toIPCC,2007)andwatervaporinthestratosphere(additional15%accordingtotheIPCC, 553
2007).WiththisfactortheGWPlistedinTable2.14oftheIPCC(2007)arereplicatedas 554
showninthesecondrowofTable4.The
CH4
factorof1.94inthesecondcolumnwas 555
determinedbyussuchthatitapproximatelypredictstheincreasedforcingssuggestedby 556
Shindelletal.(2009)asshowninthebottomrowofTable4.WedonotuseGWPsinour 557
analysisandusethemhereonlytojustifythevaluesof
CH4
usedinourcalculations. 558
Table4TheGWPcalculatedfrom(6and13)forthevalueof
CH4
incolumn2arecomparedtoGWP(in 559
parentheses)givenbytheIPCC(2007)andShindelletal.(2009). 560

CH4
t=20years t=100years t=500years
Directmethaneforcingfrom(6) 1 51.5 17.9 5.45
IPCC(2007,2.10.3.1,Table2.14) 1.43 73.5(72) 25.8(25) 7.8(7.6)
Shindelletal.(2009) 1.94 99(105) 35(33) 10.5
561
Themostimportantmessageofthecalculationsreportedhereisthatsubstitutingnatural 562
gasforcoalandoilisasignificantwaytoreducegreenhouseforcingregardlessofhowlong 563
(withinafeasiblerange)thesubstitutiontakes(Figure4).Formethaneleakagesof~1%of 564
27

totalconsumption,replacingcoalusedinelectricitygenerationand50%oftheoilusedin 565
transportationwithnaturalgas(veryfeasiblestepsthatcouldbedrivenbythelowcostof 566
methanealonewithnogovernmentencouragement)wouldachieve~40%ofthe 567
greenhousewarmingreductionthatcouldbeachievedbytransitioningimmediatelytolow 568
carbonenergysourcessuchaswind,nuclear,orsolar.Afastertransitiontolowcarbon 569
energysourceswoulddecreasegreenhousewarmingfurther,butthesubstitutionof 570
naturalgasfortheotherfossilfuelsisequallybeneficialinpercentagetermsnomatterhow 571
fastthetransition. 572
Thebasisforthe~40%reductioningreenhouseforcingissimplythereductionoftheCO
2
573
putintotheatmosphere.Whengasleakageislow,thecontributionofmethaneto 574
greenhousewarmingisnegligible(Figure3),andonlytheCO
2
inputcounts.Thereduction 575
inCO
2
ventedbetweenthebusinessasusualandthesubstitutegasscenariosis44.1%of 576
thereductionbetweenthebusinessasusualtothelowcarbonfastscenarios.This 577
fractionisindependentofthetransitionperiod;itisthesamewhetherthetransition 578
occursover50yearsor200years.BecausethelossesofCO
2
fromtheatmosphere 579
(equation4a)areproportionaltotheamountofCO
2
intheatmosphere,therelative 580
amountsofCO
2
attheendofthetransitionaresimilartotheproportionsadded.Forthe 581
sametransitionintervalalmostthesameproportionalamountsofCO
2
areremovedforall 582
scenarios.ThusthefractionalsubstitutegasreductioninCO2intheatmosphereatthe 583
endofallthetransitionintervalsremains44.1%althoughtherearesomevariationsinthe 584
seconddecimalplace.ThecurvesshowninFigure7intersecttheyaxis(0%gasleakage) 585
atfractionsslightlydifferentfrom44.1%becausetheradiativeforcingisnonlinearwith 586
respecttoCO
2
concentration(equation5a).Thelongertransitionperiodsshowlargernon 587
lineareffectsbecausetheyputmoreCO
2
intotheatmosphere.Thenearlydirect 588
relationshipbetweenreductionsinthemassofCO
2
ventedandthedecreaseinglobal 589
warmingisapowerfulconceptualsimplificationthatisparticularlyusefulbecauseitisso 590
easytocalculate,apointmadebyAllen(2009). 591
Theglobalwarmingreductionfromswappinggasfortheotherfossilfuelsofcourse 592
decreasesasmethaneleakageincreases.Butatlowleakagerates,thebenefitof 593
substitutingnaturalgasremainscloseto40%.Inthecontextofswappinggasforcoal,the 594
28

extramethaneemittedbylowlevelsofleakagehassuchatrivialclimateeffectthatitneed 595
notbeconsideredatall. 596
Sulfurdioxideadditionsarenotafactorinouranalysisbecausethesubstitutegasandlow 597
carbonfastscenariosreducetheburningofcoaloverthegrowthperiodinanidentical 598
fashion.ThusbothintroduceSO
2
identically,andthesmallwarmingeffectsoftheSO
2
, 599
whichwilloccurnomatterhowcoalisretired,cancelinthecomparison.Intherealworld 600
theaerosolbenefitofcoalmustberemovedeventually(unlesswearetoburncoal 601
forever),andthesooneritisremovedthebetterbothbecausethesmallwarmingits 602
removalwillcausewillhavelessimpactwhentemperaturesarecooler,and,muchmore 603
importantly,becausereplacingcoalsoonwillreduceCO
2
emissionsandleadtomuchless 604
globalwarminginthelongerterm. 605
Wigleys(2011)decreaseingreenhousewarmingforthenaturalgassubstitutionhe 606
definesissimilartothatwecomputehere.At0%leakage,Wigley(2011,hisFigure3) 607
calculatesa0.35Ccoolingwhichwouldbea0.45CcoolingabsentthereducedSO
2
608
emissionsheconsiders.Wecalculateacoolingof~0.62Cfor0%leakage.Ourcoolingis 609
greaterthanhisatleastinpartbecauseourgassubstitutionscenarioreducestheCO
2
610
emissionsmorethanhis.Fromnearlythesamestart,ourgassubstitutionreducesCO
2
611
emissionsfromthebusinessasusual200yeartransitioncycleby743GtCwhereasWigley 612
reducesCO
2
by425GtC. 613
Thereareofcourseuncertaintiesinthekindofcalculationscarriedouthere,butthese 614
uncertaintiesareunlikelytochangetheconclusionsreached.Carbondioxideisalmost 615
certainlynotremovedfromtheatmosphereexactlyasdescribedbyequation(3).The 616
uptakeofCO
2
maywellslowastheclimatewarms.Carbondioxideislesssolubleinwarm 617
waterandthehalinecirculationmayslowastheseasurfacetemperatureincreases.The 618
increaseinterrestrialCO
2
uptakefromCO
2
fertilizationmaybereducedbynitrogen 619
limitations.AgooddiscussionoftheseissuesisprovidedinNRC(2011).Ebyetal.(2009) 620
havesuggestedbasedonsophisticatedcoupledglobalmodelsthat~50%oftheintroduced 621
CO
2
mayberemovedwithatimeconstantof130yearsand50%withanexponentialtime 622
constantof2900years.Modificationsofequation(3)thatreduceCO
2
uptakeastheclimate 623
29

warmswillmakethebenefitsofnotputtingCO
2
intotheatmosphere,forexampleby 624
substitutinggasforcoal,evengreater,andtheargumentspresentedherestronger. 625
Thetransmissionofheatfromthemixedtothedeeplayeroftheoceansisanunknown 626
whichhasastrongimpactontransientglobalwarming.Forexample,ifheatenteredthe 627
deeplayerwith10%oftheeasewithwhichitentersitfromtheatmospheresothat 628
1
s
~0.1,thedeeplayerwouldlargelylooseitscoolingeffectiveness(e.g.,ainequation11 629
wouldhaveavalueof0.91).ThetransientresponsetoCO
2
forcingwouldberapid(occur 630
at0.91t
mix
),andtheoceanwouldreducetheequilibriumglobaltemperaturechangeby 631
only9%.Therelativeratesatwhichheatistransferredintothemixedlayerandoutofit 632
intothedeeplayerwouldappeartobeanimportantareaforfurtherinvestigation, 633
especiallybecauseitimpactsourabilitytoinferpropervaluesintheequilibriumclimate 634
forcing(seediscussioninNRC,2011).Oceanheatexchangedoesnotaffectthe 635
comparativebenefitofsubstitutinggas,souncertaintiesintheoceanheatexchangeaernot 636
ofconcerntotheconclusionswereachhere. 637
ThecalculationsmadehereavoidtheuseofGWPfactors.ThedeficienciesintheGWP 638
approacharediscussedwellbySolomonetal.(2011).Asisapparentfrom(13),theGWP 639
metricrequiresthatthetimeperiodofcomparisonbespecified.Forashorttimeperiod,a 640
shortlivedgaslikemethanehasahighGWP(e.g.,itis72timesmorepotentintermsof 641
globalwarmingthanCO
2
whencomparedovera20year).Thenotionthatmethane 642
emissionshave72timestheglobalwarmingimpactofCO
2
wouldtempteliminating 643
methaneemissionsimmediately,andworryingaboutreducingCO
2
emissionslater.Onthe 644
otherhandfora500yearperiod,theglobalwarmingimpactofakilogramofvented 645
methaneisonly7.6thatofakilogramofCO
2
(GWP
CH4
=7.6,seeTable4),andthislow 646
impactwouldsuggestdealingwithCO
2
emissionsfirstandthemethaneemissionslater, 647
perhapsevensubstitutinggasforcoalandoil.AsSolomonetal.pointouttheGWPmetric 648
speaksonlytothetimeperiodforwhichitiscalculatedandshedsnolightonthewhether 649
CO
2
orCH
4
shouldbereducedfirst. 650
30

100 500
time [years]
200 300 400
0.5
1
1.5
2
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
u
r
e
C
h
a
n
g
e
[
C
]
0
0
39.8%
10%
leakage
n
o
f
o
s
s
i
l
f
u
e
l
s
Business as Usual
Substitute Gas
LowCarbon Fast
/=1, Cd/Cm=20, tmix=5 yrs
CH4 = 1.94
651
Figure8.TemperaturechangeforscenariosinFigure1whenatransitionperiodis100yearsisfollowedbya400 652
yearperiodwithnoburningoffossilfuels.Methaneleakageinthetransitionis10%ofgasconsumptionand 653
Shindellsgreatermethaneforcingandheatexchangewiththeoceanareincluded.Extramethaneventinginthe 654
substitutegasscenarioproduceswarminggreaterthanthebusinessasusualscenariouptoalmosttheendof 655
thetransition,butthebenefitsofreducingcarbonemissionsbysubstitutinggasemergeveryquicklythereafter. 656
Figure8illustratesthefundamentaldilemma.Itshowsthatevenwhenmethaneleakageis 657
solarge(L=10%ofconsumption)thatsubstitutinggasforcoalandoilincreasesglobal 658
warmingintheshortterm,thebenefitofgassubstitutionreturnsinthelongterm.The 659
shorttermheatingcausedbymethaneleakagerapidlydissipatesafteremissionsofCO
2
660
andCH
4
ceaseat100years.CH
4
israpidlyremovedfromtheatmosphere,butCO
2
isnot. 661
Theresultisthat50yearsorsoaftertheterminationofventing(beyond150yearsin 662
Figure8),thebenefitofgasemergesunscathed.Ata10%leakagerateanda100year 663
transitionperiod,thesubstitutegasscenarioproducesasmallamountmorewarmingthan 664
thebusinessasusualscenarioat70years,butafter150yearsthegassubstitutionreduces 665
globalwarmingmuchmorebecauseithasreducedtheamountofCO
2
ventedtothe 666
atmosphere.Figure8showshowdangerousametricsuchasGWPcanbe.Evenfor 667
31

methaneemissionsof9%ofproductionandShindellsforcings,substitutinggasforcoalis 668
worthwhileinthelongterm.AnalysesthatrelyonlyonGWPfactors,suchasthatof 669
Howarthetal.(2011),missthismixofimpactscompletely,andseeonlythedamageof 670
extramethaneemissionsintheshorttermorthebenefitsofgassubstitutioninthelong 671
term,dependingontheGWPintervalselected.Fortunatelyitisveryeasytocarryoutthe 672
necessaryconvolutionintegrals(equations5and11)asdonehereandavoidGWPmetrics 673
altogether.AsstatedbySolomonetal.(2011)andotherswhotheycite,GWPfactors 674
shouldsimplynotbeusedtoevaluatefuelconsumptionscenarios. 675
Finally,framingthefuelusescenariosintermsofexponentialgrowthanddeclineaswe 676
havedonehereallowsthefeasibilityofimplementingthevariousscenariostobeexamined 677
inapreliminaryfashion.Figure9showstherateofgrowthoflowcarbonenergyresources 678
thatisrequiredbythefuelhistoriesinFigure1fora100yeartransition.Growthatmore 679
than5%peryearwouldbechallenging.Figure9showsthatthelowcarbonfastscenario 680
inFigure1requiresanimmediate~16%peryear(butrapidlydeclining)growthinlow 681
carbonenergysources.Thegrowthrateoflowcarbonenergysourcesattheendofthe 682
growthperiodofthebusinessasusualscenarioisanevengreater24%peryear.Because 683
thereistimetoplan,thiscouldbereducedbyphasinginlowcarbonenergysourcestoward 684
theendofthefossilfuelgrowthperiod.Thesubstitutegasscenariohasamuchlower 685
growthrequirementatthisstage,whichwouldmakethisscenariosubstantiallyeasierto 686
accommodate. 687
Anydecisiontosubstitutegasforcoalandoilofcourseinvolveseconomicandsocial 688
consideration,aswellasclimateanalysis.Naturalgascanenablethetransitiontowindor 689
solarenergybyprovidingthesurgecapacitywhenthesesourcesfluctuateandbackup 690
whenthesesourceswane.Becauseofitswideavailabilityandlowcost,economicfactors 691
willencouragegasreplacingcoalinelectricitygenerationandoilinsegmentsof 692
transportation.ItisafueltheU.S.andmanyothercountriesneednotimport,soits 693
developmentcouldincreaseemployment,nationalsecurity,andamorepositivebalanceof 694
payments.Ontheotherhand,cheapandavailablegasmightunderminetheeconomic 695
viabilityoflowcarbonenergysourcesanddelayatransitiontolowcarbonsources.Froma 696
greenhousepointofviewitwouldbebettertoreplacecoalelectricalfacilitieswithnuclear 697
32

plants,windfarms,orsolarpanels,butreplacingthemwithnaturalgasstationswillbe 698
faster,cheaperandachieve40%ofthelowcarbonfastbenefitiftheleakageislow.How 699
thisbalanceisstruckisamatterofpoliticsandoutsidethescopeofthispaper.Whatcan 700
besaidhereisthatgasisanaturaltransitionfuelthatcouldrepresentsthebiggest 701
availablestabilizationwedgeavailabletous. 702
50 100
time [years]
G
r
o
w
t
h
r
a
t
e
[
%
/
y
r
]
0
0
20
24
4
8
12
16
B
u
s
i
n
e
s
s
a
s
U
s
u
a
l
L
o
w
C
a
r
b
o
n
F
a
s
t
S
u
b
s
titu
te
G
a
s
Growth Rate Low Carbon Energy Sources
703
Figure9.ThegrowthrateoflowcarbonenergysourcesdeducedfromFigure1plottedasafunctionoftimefora 704
100yeartransition.Growthratesmorethan5%peryearsuchwillbechallengingtoachieveonaglobalbasis. 705
Conclusions 706
Thecomparativeapproachtakeninthispapershowsthatthebenefitofsubstituting 707
naturalgasdependsonlyonitsleakagerate. 708
1.Forleakagerates~1%orless,thesubstitutionofnaturalgasforthecoalusedin 709
electricitygenerationandfor55%oftheoilusedintransportationandheatingachieves 710
33

40%ofthereductionthatcouldbeattainedbyanimmediatetransitiontolowcarbon 711
energysources. 712
2.This40%reductiondoesnotdependonthedurationofthetransition.A40%reduction 713
isattainedwhetherthetransitionisover50yearsor200years. 714
3.Forleakagerates~1%orless,thereductionofgreenhousewarmingatalltimesis 715
relateddirectlytothemassofCO
2
putintotheatmosphere,andthereforetoreduce 716
greenhouseforcingwemustreducethisCO
2
input.ComplexitiesofhowCO
2
isremoved 717
andreductionsinSO
2
emissionsandincreasesincarbonblackandthelikedonotchange 718
thissimpleimperativeandshouldnotbeallowedtoconfusethesituation. 719
4.Atlowmethaneleakagerates,substitutingnaturalgasisalwaysbeneficialfroma 720
greenhousewarmingperspective,evenforforcingsashighashavebeensuggestedby 721
Shindelletal.(2009)andusedbyHowarthetal.(2011).Underthefastesttransitionthatis 722
probablyfeasible(our50yeartransitionscenario),substitutionofnaturalgaswillbe 723
beneficialiftheleakagerateislessthanabout7%ofproduction.Foramorereasonable 724
transitionof100years,substitutinggaswillbebeneficialiftheleakagerateislessthan 725
~19%ofproduction(Figure7).Thenaturalgasleakagerateappearstobepresentlyless 726
than2%ofproductionandprobably~1.5%ofproduction. 727
5.Evenifthenaturalgasleakageratewerehighenoughtoincreasegreenhousewarming 728
(e.g.,theleakagewas10%ofmethaneconsumptionor9%ofmethaneproduction), 729
substitutinggaswouldstillhavebenefitsbecausethereductionofCO
2
emissionswould 730
leadtoagreaterreductioningreenhousewarminglater(Figure8). 731
6.Gasisanaturaltransitionfuelbecauseitssubstitutionreducestherateatwhichlow 732
carbonenergysourcesmustbelaterintroduced(Figure9)andbecauseitcanfacilitatethe 733
introductionoflowcarbonenergysources. 734
Thepolicyimplicationsofthisanalysisare:(1)reducetheleakageofnaturalgasfrom 735
productiontoconsumptionsothatitis~1%ofproduction,(2)encouragetherapid 736
substitutionofnaturalgasforcoalandoil,and(3)encourageasrapidaconversiontolow 737
carbonsourcesofenergyaspossible. 738
34

Acknowledgements 739
Thispaperwasgreatlyimprovedbythreeexcellentreviews,twoanonymousandoneby 740
RayPierrehumbert.Raypointedouttheimportanceofoceanmixing,suggestedcasting 741
fueluseintermsofexponentialgrowthanddecline,anddrewmyattentiontoimportant 742
references(asdidtheotherreviewers).Iamindebtedtomypriorcoauthorsinthis 743
subject(MiltonTaam,LarryBrown,andAndrewHunter)forcontinuingveryhelpful 744
discussions,andtomembersofthegasindustrywhopointedoutdataandhelpedme 745
understandthecomplexitiesofgasproduction.MiltonTaamdrewmyattentiontothe 746
MAGICCprogramandshowedmehoweasyitwastouse,andalsopushedpersistentlyfor 747
thebroaderviewofmethanesubstitutionshowninFigure8.Thepaperwouldnotbewhat 748
itiswithoutthecontributionoftheseindividualsandIthankthemfortheirinput. 749
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