Hypothesis Testing

In this chapter, you will learn about

• the language of hypothesis testing
• how to perform a test for the parameter p, μ and λ for the Binomial,
Normal and Poisson distributions respectively.
• Type I and Type II errors associated with hypothesis tests.

Hypothesis Testing or Significance Testing is the process of testing the

validity of an assumption made about a population parameter. Using
statistical theory, we are able to back up our argument and conclusions
concerning the validity of the assumption made. To do this, information
from samples are used as information in making decisions as to whether
the assumption made about the population parameter is correct or not.

Steps In Conducting Hypothesis Testing

STEP 1: Define the variable X, the binomial variable or the Poisson

variable or the Normal variable being considered and the
general form of its distribution, for example X ∼ Bin(12, p),
X ∼ Po(2) or X ∼ N(20, 5).

STEP 2: Formulating the hypothesis (State Ho and H1).

State the null hypothesis, Ho and alternative hypothesis, H1. Null
Hypothesis is the assumed or hypothesized value of the population
parameter before sampling is done. It is the hypothesis that one is
interested in testing and tries to reject. In short, what is claimed by
someone is categorized under null hypothesis. Alternative
Hypothesis is the opposite of the null hypothesis. It describes the
situation if Ho is not true. There are three different rules to be
considered when formulating the null and alternative hypothesis.

Ho : µ = µo Ho : p = po Ho : λ = λo
H1 : µ ≠ µo H1 : p ≠ po H1 : λ ≠ λo
indicates a two-tailed test (both tail ends considered for critical
regions)

Ho : µ = µo Ho : p = po Ho : λ = λo
H1 : µ > µo H 1 : p > p o H o : λ > λo

indicates a one-tailed test (upper tail considered for critical region)

Ho : µ = µo Ho : p = p o Ho : λ = λo
H1 : µ < µo H 1 : p < po H o : λ < λo

indicates a one-tailed test (lower tail considered for critical region)

Note:
i) H1 cannot have an “= “sign. It can only take " ≠ " , " < "
or " > " sign.
ii) The values of µo ,po and λo are the same for µ1,p1 and λ1.

STEP 3: State the distribution according to Ho.

Examples:
If Ho is true, then X ∼ Bin(20, 0.25)
If Ho is true, then X ∼ Po(2)
If Ho is true, then X ∼ N(20, 5)
STEP 4: State level and type of test (Optional)

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 Determine whether the test is a one-tail test or a two-tail test. To
determine whether the test is a one-tailed or a two-tailed test,
consider the alternative hypothesis. If the test follows Rule 1, then
the test is a two-tailed test. If the test follows Rule 2 and Rule 3 ,
then the test is a one-tailed test. In a one-tailed test, the alternative
hypothesis specifies a definite increase or decrease in the parameter
being tested.

STEP 5: State the rejection criteria.

To determine the critical regions (rejection regions) and the critical
values, we must consider Step 2 and the level of significance, α. The
significance level α is the probability that the test statistic lies in the
critical region.

STEP 6: Calculate the required probability (for the Binomial and the
Poisson distributions) or the z-value (for the Normal
distribution).
To determine the required probability (for the Binomial and the
Poisson distributions) or the z-value (for the Normal distribution),
different formulae will be used for different situations.

For Binomial distribution use P(X= x ) = n C x p x q n − x

e −λ λx
For Poisson distribution use P(X = x) =
x!
x−µ x−µ
For Normal distribution use z = σ
or z = σˆ
n n
STEP 7: Making Conclusion
If the test statistic lies in the rejection region, then we conclude that
the null hypothesis is rejected at the α% level. Otherwise, it is not
rejected.

Hypothesis Test For A Binomial Proportion, p (small sample size)

1. A student is examining the probabilities associated with a traditional

drawing pin. She has read in a book that the probability, p, that a
drawing pin lands ‘point up’ when dropped onto a table is 0.35. She
decides to test this theory and drops a drawing pin 10 times. The pin
‘point up’ on 8 occasions. Test, at the 5% level, whether or not there
is evidence that p is greater than 0.35.

Step 1: X – the number of times the pin lands ‘point up’ out of the 10 trials.
Step 2: Ho: p = 0.35 (probability, p that a drawing pin lands ‘point up’ is 0.35)
H1: p > 0.35 (probability, p that a drawing pin lands ‘point up’ is > 0.35)
Step 3: If Ho is true, then X ∼ Bin(10, 0.35)
Step 4: Use a one-tailed test (Upper tail) at the 5% test
Step 5: Reject Ho if P(X ≥ 8) < 0.05
Step 6: P(X ≥ 8) = P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)
= 10 C8 (0.35) 8 (0.65) 2 + 10 C 9 (0.35) 9 (0.65)1 +
10 C10 (0.35)10 (0.65) 0
= 0.004281 + 0.0005123 + 0.00002759
= 0.004796
= 0.00480
< 0.05
Step 7: Since P(X ≥ 8) < 0.05, we reject Ho and conclude that there is evidence
that p is greater than 0.35

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2. The probability that an oyster larva will develop in unpolluted water is
0.9, while in polluted water this probability is less than 0.9. An
oyster breeder put 20 larvae in a sample of water and observed that
only 16 of them develop. Use a 10% significance level to determine
whether the breeder would be justified in concluding that the water is
polluted.
Step 1: X – the number of oyster larva will develop in unpolluted water
Step 2: Ho: p = 0.90 (the probability that an oyster larva will develop in unpolluted
water is 0.9)
H1: p < 0.90 (the probability that an oyster larva will develop in unpolluted
water is less than 0.9)

Step 3: If Ho is true, then X ∼ Bin(20, 0.9)

Step 4: Use a one-tailed test (Lower tail) at the 10% test
Step 5: Reject Ho if P(X ≤ 16) < 0.10
Step 6: P(X ≤ 16) = 1 – P(X ≥ 17)
= 1 – 0.86705
= 0.132953323
= 0.133
> 0.10
Step 7: Since P(X ≤ 16) > 0.10, we accept Ho and conclude that the breeder is not
justified in concluding that the water is polluted.

3. A schoolgirl made this statement: “My grandfather said that in his

days 80% of people agreed that mathematics is not a woman’s
subject, but in my class of 20, 19 pupils agreed that mathematics is
not a woman’s subject, so this shows that opinions have changed.”
Assuming that it is valid to perform a hypothesis test based on these
figures, show that there is evidence at the 5% level of significance that
opinions have changed.

Step 1: X – the number of oyster larva will develop in unpolluted water

Step 2: Ho: p = 0.80 (opinions have not changed)
H1: p ≠ 0.80 (opinions have changed)

Step 3: If Ho is true, then X ∼ Bin(20, 0.80)

Step 4: Use a two-tailed test (Lower tail) at the 10% test
Step 5: Reject Ho if P(X ≥ 19 ) < 0.025
Step 6: P(X ≥ 19) = 0.0692
> 0.025
Step 7: Since P(X ≥ 19) > 0.025, we accept Ho and conclude that opinions have not
changed.

4. Consider X ∼ Bin (8, 0.4). Suppose we wish to test, at the 5% level of

significance, on the basis of a sample observation of x, whether p is
0.4 or whether p > 0.4. The sample value obtained is x = 7.
5. A coin is tossed 6 times. Test, at the 5% level, whether the coin is
biased towards heads if (a) 6 heads are obtained (b) 5 heads are
obtained.
6. Records kept in a hospital show that 3 out of every 10 casualties who
come to the casualty department have to wait more than half an hour
before receiving medical attention. Therefore the hospital decided to
increase the staff of the department member and it was found that of
the next 20 casualties 2 had to wait more than half an hour for
medical attention. Test at the (a) 2%, (b) 5% level whether the new
staffing decreased the number of casualties who have to wait more
than half an hour for medical attention.
7. In a test of 10 true-false questions a student gets 8 correct. The
student claims she was not guessing. Test this claim at the 5% level.

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8. The probability that a certain type of seed germinating is 0.7. The
seeds undergo a new treatment, and when a packet of 10 seeds is
tested 9 germinate. Is this evidence, at the 5% level, of an increase in
the germination rate?
9. An article in a newspaper claimed that only 40% of people agree with
proposals for a new bypass. A skeptical reader thought that the true
figure was more than 40%. She asked 10 friends and 7 agreed with
the proposals. As a result, she wrote to the newspaper to argue her
case. Formulate suitable null and alternative hypotheses, and test, at
the 10% significance level, the newspaper’s claim. Comment on the
validity of this test in the context of this particular sample.
10.It has been established that 35% of children at a particular school
reach a given reading standard by the age of 7. Following the
introduction of a new reading scheme, the teacher wants to know
whether it makes any difference to the proportion. Find the critical
values she should use for a class of 10 in order to reject the
hypothesis p = 0.35 in favor of the alternative hypothesis p ≠ 0.35.
Use a 5% level of significance.
11.The standard drug for treating a certain medical condition causes
serious side effects with 40% of patients. A new drug is introduced
which, according to its manufacturer, gives a reduced risk of serious
side effects.
(a) State suitable null and alternative hypotheses to test the
manufacturer’s claim.
(b) A hospital consultant agrees to use the new drug to treat a random
sample of 20 patients, all of whom consent. The consultant
decides to accept the manufacturer’s claim if fewer than four
patients suffer serious side effects. State the critical region and
find the significance level of the test.
(c)The test assumes that the effect of the drug on one patient is
independent of its effect on other patients. Give one reason why
this may not be true.

Textbook: Exercise 10a Page 494 - 495

Miscellaneous Exercise 10c Page 504 – 506
Mixed Test 10A Page 506
Answer

4. P(X ≥ 7) = 0.00852 < 0.05; Reject Ho . We can conclude that p > 0.4

5. (a) P(X = 6) = 0.015625 < 0.05; Reject Ho . We can conclude that the coin is biased
towards heads
(b) P(X ≥ 5) = 0.109375 > 0.05; Accept H o . We can conclude that the coin is not
biased towards heads
6. (a) P(X≤ 2) = 0.0355 > 0.02; Accept Ho. We can conclude that there is no evidence of
a decrease in the number of casualties who have to wait more than half an
hour for medical attention.
(b) P(X≤ 2) = 0.0355 < 0.05; Reject H o. We can conclude that the new staffing has
decreased the number of casualties who have to wait more than half an hour
for medical attention.
7. P(X ≥ 8) = 0.3828 > 0.05; Accept Ho. We can conclude that she was guessing.
8. P(X ≥ 9) = 0.149 > 0.05; Accept Ho. We can conclude that there is no evidence of an
increase in the germination rate.
9. P(X ≥ 7) = 0.0548 < 0.10; Reject H o . We can conclude that the newspaper’s claim is
not correct.

10. p ( X = 10) = C (0.35)10 (0.65) 0 = 0.00002759 ; p ( X = 9) = C (0.35) 9 (0.65)1 = 0.0005123

10 10 10 9

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 8 2 7 3
p ( X = 8) =10 C8 (0.35) (0.65) = 0.004281 ; p ( X = 7 ) =10 C 7 (0.35) (0.65) = 0.02120

p(X ≥ 7) = 0.0260 > 0.025

0 10
p ( X = 0) =10 C 0 (0.35) (0.65) = 0.01346
1 9
p ( X = 1) =10 C1 (0.35) (0.65) = 0.07249

p(X ≤ 1) = 0.0860 > 0.025

Therefore, critical values: X ≥ 8 or X = 0

11.(b) p ( X = 0) = C (0.40) 0 (0.60) 20 = 0.00003656

20 10
1 19
p ( X = 1) = 20 C1 (0.40) (0.60) = 0.0004875
2 18
p ( X = 2) = 20 C 2 (0.40) (0.60) = 0.003087
3 17
p ( X = 3) = 20 C 3 (0.40) (0.60) = 0.01235
4 16
p ( X = 4) = 20 C 4 (0.40) (0.60) = 0.03499

Critical region: X < 4.

Significance level = P(X ≤ 4) = 0.05095
= 0.0510
= 5.10%

To test the population proportion, p, of a binomial distribution when the

sample size is large
1
(p s ± ) − po
2n (x ± 0.5) − np
z= z=
po q o npq
n

1. In the recent poll, only voters who had actually voted at the previous
election were interviewed and out of a random sample of 850 such
people, 324 said that they intended to support Party X. At the
previous election the percentage of voters supporting the party was
41%. Test, at the 5% level of significance, whether support for the
party among previous voters had decreased since the last election,
stating your conclusions clearly.

Ho : p = 0.41 (support for the party had not decreased)

H1 : p < 0.4 (support for the party had decreased)
Reject Ho if z < − 1.645
324 1
[ + ] − 0.41
850 2(850) (324 + 0.5) − 850(0.41)
z= = −1.674 z= = −1.674
(0.41)(0.59) 850(0.41)(0.59)
850

Since z < − 1.645, we reject Ho . We can conclude that the newspaper’s

claim is not correct.

2. The manufacturer of ‘Chummy Morsels’ claims that 8 out of 10 dogs

chose his product rather than that produced by a rival firm. In a
random sample of 200 dogs, 152 chose Chummy Morsels, and the

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 rest chose the rival brand. Comment on the manufacturer’s claim at
the 5% level of significance.
3. A large college claims that it admits equal numbers of men and
women. In a random sample of 500 students at the college there were
267 males. Is there evidence, at the 5% level, that the college
population is not evenly divided into males and females?
4. In an investigation into ownership of calculators, 200 randomly
chosen school students were interviewed, and 143 of them owned a
calculator. Using the evidence of this sample, test, at the 5% level of
significance, the hypothesis that the proportion of school students
owning a calculator is 75% against the alternative hypothesis that the
proportion is less than 75%.
5. A student is examining the probabilities associated with a traditional
drawing pin. She has read in a book that the probability, p, that a
drawing pin lands ‘point up’ when dropped onto a table is 0.35. She
decides to test this theory and drops a drawing pin 400 times. The pin
‘point up’ on 153 occasions. Test, at the 5% level, whether or not
there is evidence that p is greater than 0.35.

Textbook: Exercise 11c Page 532 - 533

Answer

2. z = −1.325; Since z > − 1.645, we accept Ho. The manufacturer’s claim is correct.
3. z = 1.48; Since − 1.645 < z < 1.645 we accept Ho. The college population is evenly
divided into males and females
4. z = − 1.061; Since z > − 1.645, we accept Ho. The proportion of school students
owning a calculator is 75%
5. z = 1.31; Since z < 1.645, we accept Ho. p > 0.35.