Network Analysis Operational Research Level 4

Prepared by T.M.J.A.Cooray Department of Mathematics

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

Project Planning
Given:
Statement of work written description of goals work & time frame of project Work Breakdown Structure

Be able to: develop precedence pp

relationship diagram which shows q p p j sequential relationship of project activities

MA 4020 -Network Analysis 2

Gantt Chart
Popular tool for project scheduling Graph with bar representing time for each
task Provides visual display of project schedule Also shows slack for activities
( (amount of ti t f time activity can b d l ti it be delayed d without delaying project)
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 3

A Gantt Chart
0
Activity y Design house and obtain financing Lay foundation Order and receive materials Build house Select paint Select carpet Finish work

Month

10

9
4

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

CPM/PERT

Critical Path Method (CPM)

- D P t & R i t -Rand (1956) DuPont Remington R d Remington - deterministic task times - activity-on-node network construction (AON) activity-on-

Project Evaluation & Review Technique j q

(PERT)
- U.S. Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton - multiple task time estimates( probabilistic) - activity-on-arrow network construction (AOA) activity-onMA 4020 -Network Analysis 5

Network Construction
In AON, nodes represent activities &
arrows show precedence relationships p p In AOA, arrows represent activities & nodes are events for points in time p An event is the completion or beginning y of an activity A dummy shows precedence for two activities with same start & end nodes
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 6

The Project Network

Network consists of branches & nodes
Node 1 Branch 2 3

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

Simplified Project Network

Construct forms

Pour concrete

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

Consider the following table which describes the activities to be done to build a house and its sequence Activity predecessors Duration A Design house and obtain financing 3 B Lay foundation A 2 C Order and receive materials A 1 D Build house B,C 3 E Select paint B,C BC 1 F Select carpet E 1 G Fi i h work Finish k D,F DF 1
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 9

Concurrent Activities
Lay foundation
2 3 3

Lay foundation
2

Dummy
4

Order material Incorrect precedence relationship

Order O d material t i l Correct precedence relationship

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

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Project Network For A House

3
Lay foundation 3 Design house and obtain financing 2 0 1 Dummy

4
Select paint

Build house 1 3

Order and receive materials

Finish work 1

1 Select carpet

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Critical Path
A path is a sequence of connected activities
running from the start to the end node in a network duration in the network d h k

The critical path is the path with the longest A project cannot be completed in less than the
time of the critical path (under normal circumstances)
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All Possible Paths

path1: path2: 1-2-3-4-6-7 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months; the critical path 3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months

path3: th3 1-2-4-6-7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months path4: 1-2-4-5-6-7 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months

MA 4020 -Network Analysis 13

Early Times

(Housebuilding example)

ES - earliest time activity can start Forward pass starts at beginning of

network to determine ES times EF = ES + activity ti ti it time
ESij = maximum (EFi) i EFij = ESij + tij ES12 = 0 EF12 = ES12 + t12 = 0 + 3 = 3 months
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Computing Early Times

-ES23 = max (EF2) = 3 months - ES46 = max (EF4) = max (5,4) = 5 months - EF46 = ES46 + t46 = 5 + 3 = 8 months - EF67 =9 months, the project duration

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

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Late Times
LS - latest time activity can be started
without delaying the project Backward pass starts at end of network to determine LS times LF - latest time activity can be completed without delaying the project
LSij = LFij - tij LFij = minimum (LSj)
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 16

Computing Late Times

If a deadline is not given take LF of the project to be EF of the last activity LF67 = 9 months LS67 = LF67 - t67 = 9 - 1 = 8 months LF56 = minimum (LS6) = 8 months LS56 = LF56 - t56 = 8 - 1 = 7 months min(5, LF24 = minimum (LS4) = min(5 6) = 5 months LS24 = LF24 - t24 = 5 - 1 = 4 months
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 17

Early And Late Times

ES=5, EF=5 ES 5 EF 5 ES=3, EF=5 LS=3, LF=5 2

3
0 1

LS=5, LF=5 ES 5, EF 8 ES=5, EF=8 ES=8, EF=9 LS=5, LF=8 1 3 1 LS=8, LF=9 1

3 ES=0, EF=3 LS=0, LF=3

ES=3, EF=4 LS=4, LF=5

ES=6, EF=7 LS=7, LF=8

ES=5, EF=6 LS 6, LF 7 LS=6 LF=7

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Activity Slack y
Slack is defined as the LS-ES or LF-EF LSLF Activities on critical path have ES = LS &
EF = LF (slack is 0)

Activities not on critical path have slack

Sij = LSij - ESij Sij = LFij - EFij

S24 = LS24 - ES24 = 4 - 3 = 1 month

MA 4020 -Network Analysis 19

Total slack/float or Slack of an activity

Total slack/ float means the amount of

time that an activity can be delayed without affecting the entire project completion ti . l ti time time. The activity on a given path share the y g p maximum possible slack of the activity along that path according to its share. share. Sum of the possible slacks of the activities can not exceed th maximum ti iti t d the i slack along that path. path.
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 20

Free slack of an activity

This is the maximum possible delay of
an activity which does not affect its immediate successors. d This is evaluated as FSij = ESj EFij
FF34=ES4FF34=ES4-EF34 =5-5=0 =5FF24=ES4-ES24=5FF24=ES4-ES24=5-4=1
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 21

Activity Slack Data

Activity 1-2* 2-3 2-4 3-4* 4-5 4-6* 5-6 6-7* ES 0 3 3 5 5 5 6 8 LS 0 3 4 5 6 5 7 8 EF 3 5 4 5 6 8 7 9 LF 3 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 Slack (S) Free slack 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 * Critical path

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

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0

Activity Design house and obtain financing Lay foundation Order and receive materials t i l Build house Select paint p Select carpet Finish work

10

9
23

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

Probabilistic Time Estimates

Reflect uncertainty of activity times Beta distribution is used in PERT
a + 4m + b Mean (expected time): t = 6 where, Variance: 2 = ( b - a 6 2

a = optimistic estimate m = most likely time estimate b = pessimistic time estimate

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

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Example Beta Distributions

P (time) P (time) a P (t time)

m t

m=t

b
25

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

PERT Example
2
Equipment installation Dummy

Equipment testing and modification

6
Final debugging System Training

System development

Manual Testing Job training Orientation

System Testing

System changeover

Position P iti recruiting

Dummy

7
26

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

Activity Information y
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-5 4-5 4-7 5-8 5-7 7-8 6-9 8-9 Time estimates (wks) a m b t 6 8 10 3 6 9 1 3 5 0 0 0 2 4 12 2 3 4 3 4 5 2 2 2 3 7 11 2 4 6 0 0 0 1 4 7 1 10 13 Mean Time 2 8 6 3 0 5 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 9 Variance .44 1.00 .44 .00 2.78 .11 .11 .00 1.78 .44 .00 1.00 4.00
27

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

Early And Late Times

Activity 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 7 6 8 2 3 4 5 6 5 5 7 8 7 8 9 9 t 8 6 3 0 5 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 9 2 0.44 1.00 0.44 0.00 2.78 0.11 0 11 0.11 0.00 1.78 1 78 0.44 0.00 1.00 1 00 4.00 ES 0 0 0 8 8 6 3 3 9 9 13 13 16 EF 8 6 3 8 13 9 7 5 16 13 13 17 25 LS 1 0 2 9 16 6 5 14 9 12 16 21 16 LF 9 6 5 9 21 9 9 16 16 16 16 25 25 S 1 0 2 1 8 0 2 11 0 3 3 8 0
28

FS?

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

Network With Times

(LS=1, LF=9 )
ES=0, EF=8 ES 0 EF 8

2
8 0

( LS=16 LF=21 )
5

ES=8, EF=13

(LS=9, LF=9 )
3

ES=8, EF=8

( LS=21 LF=25 )
4

ES=13, EF=17

(LS=0, LF=6 )
6

ES=0, EF=6

(LS=6, LF=9 ) (LS=5, LF=9 )

2 4 ES=3, EF=7 ES 3 EF 7

ES 6, EF 9 ES=6 EF=9

( LS=9, LF=16 )
7 ES=9, EF=13 4 0

ES=9, EF=16

9 ES 16, EF=25 ES=16 EF 25

(LS=2, LF=5 )
4

ES=0, EF=3

( LS=12, LF=16)
7

( LS=16 LF=25 )

( LS=16 LF=16 )

ES=13, ES=13 EF=13

( LS=14, LF=16)

ES=3, EF=5

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

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Project Variance
Project variance is the sum of the variances along the critical path 2 = 2 13 + 2 35 + 2 58 + 2 89
= 1.00 +0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00 = 6.89 weeks
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 30

Probabilistic Network Analysis

Determine the probability that a project is completed (project completion time is ) within a spec ed pe od o time t specified period of t e x- Z = where = tp = project mean time = project standard deviation x = project time (random variable) Z = number of standard deviations of x from the mean (standardized random variable)
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 31

Normal Distribution Of Project Time

X ~ N ( , 2 )
Probability

z=

= tp

Time

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

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Standard Normal Distribution Of transformed Project Time

Z ~ N (0,1 )
Probability

=0

Time

MA 4020 -Network Analysis

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Probabilistic Analysis Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks?
P(X P(X 30) = ? 2 = 6.89 weeks 6 89 ee s = 6.89 = 2.62 weeks Z = x - =30 - 25 = 1.91 30 2.62 P(Z 1.91) = ? ( )
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 34

Determining Probability From Z Value

Z

. . 1.1 11 .
1.9

. 0. 0.3643 3643 .
0.4713

0.00

. . 0 3665 0 3729 0.3665 0.3729 .

+0.4719

0.01 ..

04

0.09 0.4767

P( x < 30 weeks) = 0.50+ 04719 = 0.9719

= 25
MA 4020 -Network Analysis

x = 30

Time (weeks)
35

What is the probability that the project will be completed within 22 weeks?
22 - 25 = -3 = -1.14 Z= 2.62 2.62 P(Z< -1.14) = 0.1271
x = 22 = 25 x=28 Time (weeks)

P( x< 22 weeks) = 0.1271

MA 4020 -Network Analysis 36

Benefits of PERT/CPM
Useful at many stages of project
management g Mathematically simple Uses graphical displays Gives critical path & slack time Provides project documentation Useful in monitoring costs g
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Advantages of PERT/CPM
Networks generated provide valuable project documentation and graphically point out who is responsible for various project activities Applicable to a wide variety of projects and industries dus es Useful in monitoring not only schedules, but costs as well
MA 4020 -Network Analysis 38

Limitations of PERT/CPM
Assumes clearly defined, independent,
& stable activities Specified precedence relationships Activity times (PERT) follow beta distribution Subjective time estimates S bjecti e Over-emphasis on critical path OverMA 4020 -Network Analysis

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