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Frederic de Loizaga CBRE Sam Slaton CBRE Mike Lindemann CBRE Mark Grillo Grillo Commercial Real Estate Justin Rayburn I-Core Global
ats
2Q11
3Q11
Denver submarket 1Q12 continued to 2Q12 on build 4Q11 progress made in fundamentals during the previous quarters such as vacancy, absorption, and availability. For the fth straight quarter the Southeast submarket experienced positive net absorption, recording 350,587 SF (square feet) of gain, up from the 195,458 SF recorded in the rst quarter. With the improvement in occupied space, the direct vacancy rate currently rests at 13.8%, reduced from 14.9% in the rst quarter. Accounting for sublease space, the overall availability
Absorption
1Q12
2003
2Q12
2004
also fell to 19.4%. Considering the uncertain conditions in the local and national economy, the Southeast submarket showed resilience
1,400 1,200 1,000 Thous sands 800 600 400 200 0
2005 2006 throughout the past year posting over 2007 100,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
SF of positive net absorption in each quarter. While large corporate users continue to drive leasing activity, a more diversied spectrum of tenant sizes and industry types have begun
For information, contact: Frederic de Loizaga Associate Ofce Properties T 720.528.6402 frederic.deloizaga@cbre.com www.cbre.com/frederic.deloizaga
exhibiting a moderate amount of condence. As evidence of this, both class A and B experienced a notable decline in availability and vacancy. However, a stark contrast in vacancy levels remains between the classes,, with Class A currently standing at a healthy
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Activity
2008
Quarterly Stats
2009
2010
2Q11
3Q11
2011
15.9% 666,012 22.1%
4Q11
2012 YTD
1Q12
2Q12
10 Year Avg.
13.8% 516,546 17.9%
Total NRA Direct Vacant % Sub. Available SF Direct Available % Absorption Direct Asking Lease Rate Activity
33,459,513
33,459,513
Annual Stats
# of Buildings
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual Stats
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Quarterly Stats
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Total Available %
Total NRA
Sub. Available SF YTD Change in Avail. Direct Asking Lease Rate Absorption Activity
Annual Stats
# of Buildings Total NRA Under Construction Direct Vacant % Total Available % Sub. Available SF YTD Change in Avail. Direct Asking Lease Rate Absorption Activity
At
2008
400 200 0 -200 200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 2003
600
2009
2010
2011
2012 YTD
10 Year Avg.
$15.00
$20.00
appreciation in asking rates appears to have begun. As a sign of this, overall asking lease rates increased in the second quarter to $19.10, 51 cents (2.7%) higher than the previous quarter. This is also elevated almost a dollar (5.0%) from the overall rate of $18.19 achieved at the start of 2011. Class A asking rates also rose substantially in the quarter, increasing by 78 cents (3.5%) from the previous quarter, to average $22.81 per SF, while year over year rates were up by 1.22 cents (5.4%) from $21.59 per SF in the second quarter of 2011. Class B & C rates
Thousands
$10.00 $10 00
$5.00
$0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
Absorption
rose as well, a considerable 39 cents (2.3%) to 17.27 per SF for Class B, and 43 cents to $12.86 per SF for Class C. Numerous tenants have beneted since the recession from large concession packages offered by landlords who were looking to improve occupancy rates, however tenants ability to capitalize on lower
For information, contact:
Under Construction
Frederic de Loizaga Year-over-Year Quarterly Trends At A Glance* Associate Ofce Properties Year-over-Year Quarterly Trends At A Glance* T 720.528.6402 Construction frederic.deloizaga@cbre.com Construction Year-over-Year Quarterly Trends At A Glance* www.cbre.com/frederic.deloizaga Vacancy
Vacancy Absorption Construction
CBRE Lease Rates 8390 East Crescent Parkway Vacancy Suite 300 Activity Greenwood Village, CO 80111 Absorption T 720.528.6300 F 720.528.6333 www.cbre.com/denver
Lease Rates
Activity
Metropolitan Denver Class A 49,902,801 Metropolitan Denver Class B 45,824,813 Class C 11,926,588 Southeast 33,459,513 Class A 18,262,205 Class B 12,779,153 Southeast 2,418,155 Class C
Class Stats107,654,202
Class Stats
NRA 14.2%
10.5% 17.1% 18.7% 13.8% 9.4% 19.3% 18.4%
Lease Rates
Vacancy
Class A
Class B
Class C
Lease Rates
Vacancy
Metropolitan Denver
Vacancy Travelers Companies renewal at Atrium II, and the signing of Arrow Electronics at 181 Inverness. Among others, these
deals will help to maintain occupancy levels and improve upon absorption in the remainder of 2012 as tenants occupy. Absorption
Although still below pre-recession levels, the second quarter built on the previous quarters active investment sales volume with notable deals occurring. Investment sales were lead by Sir Properties Trusts purchase of 333 Inverness, a 144,766 SF Class A property in the Inverness micro-market, for approximately $19 million, or $131 per SF. Also of note in the Activity second quarter was the sale of Atrium II in the Denver Technology Center, which sold to Grifn Capital for $16 million, Quarterly or $123 per Year-over-Year investment opportunities in the market include Peakview Tower and Park Meadows Corp Center SF. Notable III & IV. Due to the constricted pipeline over the previous two years, no signicant projects were delivered to the market Rates NRA Lease Class Stats in the second quarter. Activity has increased this quarter however, with the 180,000 SF TriZetto Groups build-to-suit
Lease Rates
rends At A Glance*
nstruction
cancy
Metropolitan Denver headquarters project breaking ground. This project marks the rst new construction in the Southeast market since 2009,
and encouraging sign for further development in the future. With the anticipation of improvement in actual property level performance in higher quality buildings, core assets are still being sought out in the market. Given the increased competition for the best assets in 2011 and the beginning of 2012, and attractive spreads on commercial mortgages,
sorption
Southeast lenders in the coming quarters will likely begin to take on more risk. While the increased sales activity seen in the past year
is encouraging, investors are proceeding with caution as global concerns loom and the pending US Presidential elections create uncertainty. As a result, a sharp uptick in investment activity is not expected; rather the gradual improvement seen in the previous year is likely to carry on through 2012.
Class Stats
Metropolitan Denver
NRA
$0.00 Class A Class B
Lease Rates
$5.00 $10.00
LEASE RATES
$15.00
Vacancy
$20.00 $25.00 $30.00
Southeast
Class C
CBRE 8390 East Crescent Parkway Suite 300 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 T 720.528.6300 F 720.528.6333 www.cbre.com/denver
Class A
Southeast
Metropolitan Denver
VACANCY
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Class B
Class C
Southeast
Metropolitan Denver
SUBMARKET
TOTAL SF
AVAILABLE SPACE
1,940,529 SF 1,667,927 SF 449,202 SF 623,839 SF 504,398 SF 580,133 SF 309,588 SF 421,766 SF 6,497,382 SF
AVAILABILITY RATE
19.45% 21.95% 9.81% 16.25% 20.23% 23.89% 24.03% 33.55% 19.42%
VACANT SPACE
1,267,005 SF 1,260,928 SF 335,010 SF 397,613 SF 256,558 SF 459,753 SF 264,042 SF 384,193 SF 4,625,102 SF
VACANCY OVERALL
12.70% 16.59% 7.31% 10.36% 10.29% 18.93% 20.49% 30.56% 13.82% % 9.41%
DENVER TECH CENTER GREENWOOD PLAZA MERIDIAN/DOUGLAS COUNTY INVERNESS PANORAMA/HIGHLAND PARK EAST ARAPAHOE ROAD/SOUTHGATE CENTENNIAL AIRPORT EAST HAMPDEN CORRIDOR
Total
SUBMARKET OVERALL
2Q12 CLASS C
$14.04 $15.54 $0.00 $13.78 $0.00 $12.51 $0.00 $12.55 $12.86
CLASS B
$18.75 $17.54 $21.04 $17.88 $16.81 $16.46 $12.81 $17.15 $17.27
ACTIVITY
273,326 SF 161,363 SF 191,469 SF 63,451 SF 15,746 SF 93,436 SF 72,703 SF 49,050 SF 920,544 SF F
DENVER TECH CENTER GREENWOOD PLAZA MERIDIAN/DOUGLAS COUNTY INVERNESS PANORAMA/HIGHLAND PARK EAST ARAPAHOE ROAD/SOUTHGATE CENTENNIAL AIRPORT EAST HAMPDEN CORRIDOR
TOTAL
2,002,594
CBRE 8390 East Crescent Parkway Suite 300 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 T 720.528.6300 F 720.528.6333 www.cbre.com/denver
1Q12
2Q12
$9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00
100 50 0 -50
Absorption
Lease Rates
Q12 2003
2Q12 2004
Lease 2005 Absorption vs. 2006Rates that is conveniently 2007 industrial and ex space
located in close proximity to high-end housing and ofce parks. Corporate image conscious small and medium sized owner/users and local businesses which desire these attributes often pay a premium in order to be located in the Southeast. This premium includes higher base rental rates due to elevated land values,
2008
2010
For information, contact: Sam Slaton Senior Associate Industrial Properties T 720.528.6406 sam.slaton@cbre.com www.cbre.com/sam.slaton
higher standards of construction and higher operating expenses that are characteristic of the Southeast. These elevated expenses are a result of property taxes that are often twice those found in the Northeast submarkets.
Activity
Vacancy
Quarterly Stats
Total NRA
2Q11
15,976,475 11.21% 4,716 12.89% -28,523 $8.32 168,047
3Q11
15,976,475
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
15,976,475
Absorp
006
2008 CBRE 8390 East Crescent Parkway Suite 300 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 T 720.528.6300 F 720.528.6333
www.cbre.com/denver
2007
2009
2010
15,976,475 2011 15,976,475 2012YTD 9.30% 4,716 10.87% 185,617 $8.27 277,247 9.65% 4,716 10.94% -54,978 $8.54 66,862
10 Year Avg.
8.22% 9.47%
Annual Stats
# of Buildings Total NRA U/C
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2007
2008
25.0% 25 0%
20.0%
15.0%
100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Under Construction
Vacancy
Year-over-Year
Quarterly
Southeast, totals 8,501,958 SF, and posted a decrease in vacancy to 9.83%. This remains than the Flex/R&D vacancy in quarter one, reached 12.14%. The demand for 8,000
Warehouse/Distribution Flex/R&D Manufacturing
SF or less incubator space continues to increase as availability shrinks for that product type.
Property landlords remain aggressive Stats** Number of Buildings In general, TypePropertyType Stats** Number Buildings Property Type Stats** Number ofofBuildings NRA Lease Rates
Lease Rates Lease Rates
in attracting new and Metropolitan Denver Denverretaining existing Metropolitan Metropolitan Denver For information, contact: tenants as blend & extend, renewals,
Sam Slaton Senior Associate theme. Industrial Properties Southeast SoutheastSoutheast T 720.528.6406 sam.slaton@cbre.com www.cbre.com/sam.slaton
Trends At A Glance*
NRA NRA
Year-over-Year
Vacancy Vacancy
Vacancy
Quarterly
CBRE 8390 East Crescent Parkway Suite 300 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 T 720.528.6300 F 720.528.6333 www.cbre.com/denver
LEASE RATES
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
VACANCY
Number of Buildings
Metropolitan Denver
Flex/R&D
Flex/R&D
Warehouse/Distribution
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
Southeast 0.0%
2.0%
Metropolitan Denver
4.0%
6.0%
Southeast
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Metropolitan Denver
build to suit being completed. With new space lling up, and the lack of spec building, all development is build to suit due to specialized facility needs or no existing large blocks of space over 74,000 SF for users in the market. However, some developers are poised to capitalize on this lack of supply and are beginning to deliver build-to-suit projects to t these requirements. The trend of specialized
Year-over-Year Quarterly
construction in the Southeast, similar to the Blue Bell project in the previous quarter, continues to emerge as developers look for product that is specialized in size and nature. Speculative development is still unjustiable and the Southeast market will not see much in the near future.
Number of Buildings
NRA
Lease Rates
Vacancy
CBRE 8390 East Crescent Parkway Suite 300 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 T 720.528.6300 F 720.528.6333 www.cbre.com/denver
** Denver Metro and Southeast market totals include Warehouse/Distribution, Flex/R&D, and Manufacturing as well as Incubator, Special Use, and Other Industrial space.
Availability Absorption
Activity
ANNUAL STATS
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
# of Buildings NRA
2Q 11
3Q 11
4Q 11
1Q 12
2Q 12
Availability
Absorption Activity
Construction
Vacancy
Lease Rates
Construction vs Vacancy
75
1,200 1,000
Thousands
with ANNUAL STATS property level performance. The2006 strong retail 2003 2004 2005 marketBuildings # of recorded gains across key fundamentals,
NRA consumer condence and retail sales. While
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 YTD
Construction
Availability
and in
10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 10 Year Avg. 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
conjunction with encouraging gains in the labor Lease Rates and housing markets, the retail sector is poised to outpace 2011 recovery expectations. Sustained increases in consumer spending and condence will be necessary for the Denver economy to
Thousands
75
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
Construction Vacancy
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Absorption Lease Rates
regain equilibrium levels and consistent growth. Reductions in foreclosure and new unemployment lings, as well as escalating residential sales activity, have also had a direct impact on the improving economy. Recent market success can be partly attributed to accelerating tenant demand creating downward pressure on vacancy rates. Additionally, disciplined development activity is allowing lease rates to continue stabilizing. In
For information, contact: Mike Lindemann Senior Associate Retail Properties T 720.528.6303 matt.henrichs@cbre.com www.cbre.com/matt.henrichs
TRENDS
Construction Vacancy Absorption Lease Rates Activity
Yearly
Quarterly
addition, the Denver market recorded positive net absorption for the rst time since the third quarter 2011, further supporting an optimistic outlook in which the market will be able to exceed performance and growth expectations for 2012.
QUARTERLY STATS
CBRE 8390 East Crescent Parkway Suite 300 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 T 720.528.6300 F 720.528.6333 www.cbre.com/denver
2Q 11
8,743,317 0 7.2% 48,338 11.4% 109,242 140,324 $17.63
3Q 11
4Q 11
Metropolitan Denver 0
1Q 12
8,743,317 0 5.8% 49,719 10.1% 38,939 79,503 $17.41
VACANCY
2Q 12
Number of Buldings
NRA
ANNUAL STATS
# of Buildings NRA
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
NRA
TRENDS
Yearly
Quarterly
Metropolitan Denver
Construction Vacancy
Absorption
Southeast
Given Denvers diversied economic base, high levels of in-migration and continued progress in real estate fundamentals, the retail sector is well positioned for sustainable growth.
Metropolitan Denver
VACANCY
Neighb/Comm Center
PRODUCT TYPE
Number of Buldings
NRA
Lease Rates
Availability
Vacancy
Measurable progress in key performance indicators dened the Southeast submarket in the second quarter of 2012. The submarket recorded 14,010 square feet (SF) of positive net absorption during the quarter, bring the year-to-date total up to 52,949 SF. Encouraging leasing activity and heightened demand for well located properties resultedVACANCY notable decrease in in a the direct vacancy rate to a healthy 5.6%. Accounting for sublease space, the total vacancy rate stands at 6.0%, a 10 basis point decrease when compared to rst quarter numbers. The average asking lease rate in the Southeast submarket achieved an impressive gain to rest at$18.19 per SF during the second quarter. Occupancy levels have rebounded considerably over the past two years in the Southeast submarket, and further progress is expected through the second
TRENDS of 2012. Yearly half Leasing velocity QuarterlyClass A space for
Southeast
Strip Center
Power Center
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Southeast
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Metropolitan Denver
LEASE RATES
Neighb/Comm Center
Strip Center
Power Center
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
Metropolitan Denver
$15.00
Southeast
$20.00
$25.00
Absorption Mike Lindemann quality space. The increase in leasing activity has Senior Associate Rates Lease Retail Properties created downward pressure on vacancy rates, and T 720.528.6303 is contributing to the stabilization of lease rates. Activity matt.henrichs@cbre.com www.cbre.com/matt.henrichs Despite Sears Corporation announcing the closure
Strip Center
Neighb/Comm Center
owners and operators continue to analyze a diverse range of leasing methods and incentives as they seek to maintain occupancy levels and push leasing rates to pre-recession levels.
VACANCY LEASE RATES
Construction A full rebound in construction activity will rely heavily on the labor and housing markets, where new Vacancy jobs need to be created to incentivize professionals to relocate to Colorado. The Denver retail market, Absorption and specically the Southeast submarket, continues to garner attention from national users in their Lease Rates expansion plans. While there is still uncertainty surrounding the national economic recovery, the positive Activity fundamentals being recorded in the Southeast retail submarket indicate it is well positioned to take
Southeast
Power Center Strip Center Neighborhood/ Community Center
Strip Center - Does not qualify in other categories and which are typically characterized as un-anchored centers, which have dedicated parking. The center may be one or two stories and have a mix of retail and service tenants. Neighborhood Shopping Center (30,000-100,000 SF) - Provides for the sale of convenience goods (foods, drugs, and sundries) and personal services (laundry and dry cleaning, barbering, shoe repairing, etc.) for the day-to-day living needs of the immediate neighborhood. It is built around a supermarket as the principal tenant. Power Center (350,000+ SF) - An open-air low priced oriented center with four or more Big Box/Category Killers (e.g. Circuit City, Toys R Us, Ofce Depot) or two or more Big Box/Category Killers and a discount department store or warehouse club (e.g. Wal-Mart, Kmart, Sams, Price Club).
VACANCY
LEASE RATES
For information, contact: Mike Lindemann Senior Associate Retail Properties T 720.528.6303 matt.henrichs@cbre.com www.cbre.com/matt.henrichs
CBRE 8390 East Crescent Parkway Suite 300 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 T 720.528.6300 F 720.528.6333 www.cbre.com/denver
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