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NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
`630 -
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code FMCG 21,454 (1,244) 0.4 658/370 40,516 1 17,728 5,380 GOCP.BO GCPL@IN
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL), in its 1QFY2013 results, reported an impressive top-line growth of 39.2% yoy to `1,389cr. The Indian subcontinent business registered a growth of 23% yoy on account of a robust growth in homecare and personal wash segments. The international business registered an organic growth of 31%, aided by an impressive performance from Indonesia and LatAm as well as due to favorable impact of INR depreciation. Key highlights of the quarter: The Company reported a robust growth in its homecare and personal wash categories, growing by 27% and 42% yoy respectively. On the operating front, the company reported a 126bp yoy decline in margin to 14.3%. The recurring PAT for the quarter grew by 30.3% yoy to `130cr. However, the reported profit declined y-o-y on account of a higher base (due to one-time exit compensation of `156.2cr related to use of Kiwi license). During the quarter, the company entered the air fresheners category with the launch of AER. Outlook and valuation: GCPLs recent acquisitions have been in line with its 3X3 strategy and are expected to enable the company to spread its footprint and grow inorganically. The acquisition of Darling Group, the market leader in hair extension products in the African continent, and Chile based Cosmetica Nacional will continue to drive strong growth for the company in Africa and LatAm. At the current market price, the stock is trading at 23.8x FY2014E consolidated earnings. After valuing the companys various international subsidiaries and giving effect to their varied geographic presence, we believe the current implied valuation of the standalone business is at fair levels. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 64.0 1.0 27.2 7.8
3m 9.3 22.7
FY2011 3,643 78.5 482 41.8 17.6 14.2 44.5 11.8 38.4 25.0 6.4 36.3
FY2012 4,851 33.2 547 13.6 17.7 16.1 39.2 7.6 33.1 18.7 4.7 26.4
FY2013E 6,097 25.7 744 36.0 18.4 21.9 28.8 6.4 25.5 21.1 3.7 20.2
FY2014E 7,233 18.6 900 21.0 18.6 26.5 23.8 5.3 25.4 23.2 3.1 16.6
V Srinivasan
022-39357800 Ext: 6831 v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com Amit Patil 022-39357800 Ext: 6839 amit.patil@angelbroking.com
1QFY13 1,389 664 47.8 129 9.3 153 11.0 261 18.8 1,207 181 13.0 16 20 18 163 163 11.7 11 7 152 10.9 21 130 34 3.8
1QFY12 998 489 49.0 80 8.0 117 11.7 168 16.9 855 143 14.3 19 16 60 167 139 307 30.7 67 22 239 24.0 100 32 3.1
% yoy 39.2 35.7 60.9 30.6 55.1 41.2 26.9 (14.5) 25.0 (69.7) (2.6) (46.8)
4QFY12 1,323 614 46.4 120 9.1 110 8.3 231 17.4 1,075 248 18.8 19 16 20 233 25 258 19.5 60 23
% qoq 5.0 8.1 7.3 39.6 13.2 12.3 (27.0) (15.2) 28.1 (7.2) (30.0) (36.8)
FY2012 4,851 2,319 47.8 392 8.1 450 9.3 830 17.1 3,990 861 17.7 66 64 67 798 (180) 977 20.1 226 23
FY2011 3,643 1,749 48.0 285 7.8 352 9.7 617 16.9 3,002 641 17.6 52 50 73 612 (33) 645 17.7 130 20 548 15.0 482 34 14.2
(36.6)
198 14.9 5
(23.2)
931 19.2 25
30.3 23.9
168 32 5.2
(22.2) (26.0)
547 34 16.1
13.6 13.6
On the operating front, GCPL reported a 126bp yoy decline in its operating margin to 13.0%. The y-o-y decline in OPM was due to an increase in staff costs and other expenditure, offset to an extent by the cooling of raw material prices and reduction of advertising expenses.
(%)
30.0 20.0 10.0 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 17.8 17.8 16.7 17.0 14.3 17.6
19.7
18.8 13.0
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
OPM
Gross Margin
Investment rationale
Acquisitions to drive an 11.3% CAGR in earnings over FY201214E and add to EPS: The management has constantly reiterated that all recent international acquisitions have been EPS-accretive. Over FY201214E, we expect GCPL to post an 11.3% CAGR in earnings, largely driven by consolidation of the recent acquisitions. Synergistic benefits and cross-pollination opportunities: We believe there are significant synergistic benefits in terms of distribution and supply-chain networks through the integration of Godrej Household Products Ltd (GHPL), which is likely to get reflected in the companys performance going ahead. Moreover, GHPLs strong presence in Southern India complements GCPLs strong presence in Northern India extremely well, giving GCPL a balanced presence.
CMP (`) 3,773 464 1,184 122 630 2,784 495 268 190 4,454 134
TP (`) 633 -
Upside (%) 37 -
P/E (x) FY13E 31.2 22.4 34.2 27.4 28.8 26.6 34.7 28.9 27.9 38.8 21.3 FY14E 26.1 16.9 28.9 23.6 23.8 22.5 30.1 24.8 22.4 31.9 17.9
EV/Sales (x) FY13E 3.1 0.9 5.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 4.0 6.7 2.4 4.9 1.1 FY14E 2.6 0.8 4.5 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.4 5.8 2.0 4.1 1.0
RoE (%) FY13E 37.4 42.7 99.5 43.2 25.5 34.4 70.9 35.6 31.4 71.2 8.6 FY14E 35.3 44.3 94.1 41.4 25.4 32.8 59.8 35.0 29.7 60.3 9.5
CAGR # Sales 17.0 17.4 12.8 15.3 22.1 16.8 15.5 16.9 18.6 16.5 9.7 PAT 18.5 32.7 11.7 18.3 28.3 21.0 17.6 17.0 27.6 15.0 16.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Denotes CAGR for FY2012-14E;*December year ending
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12
15x
18x
21x
Company Background
GCPL is a leading FMCG company in the household and personal care products category, with brands such as Good Knight, HIT, Cinthol, Godrej No.1 and Expert. The company has built a foothold in Africa, Latin America, Indonesia and UK through several acquisitions. Currently, ~36% of the company's revenue comes from its international business.
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 4.9 43.9 15.8 76.5 6 5.7 47.3 20.6 95.2 9 5.5 44.0 38.5 72.0 42 6.7 59.0 35.6 86.9 30 6.5 58.9 36.5 78.9 35 6.5 58.9 36.5 74.8 35 30.8 109.0 46.6 41.5 166.7 44.5 25.0 121.5 38.4 18.7 113.5 33.1 21.1 123.3 25.5 23.2 111.8 25.4 6.7 5.1 7.5 4.0 22.2 11.0 10.0 11.8 4.1 31.0 14.9 14.2 16.4 5.0 53.3 16.1 16.1 18.7 4.6 82.7 21.9 21.9 25.1 5.0 98.7 26.5 26.5 30.0 5.0 119.3 124.3 84.4 28.3 0.6 15.3 103.1 25.0 63.2 53.5 20.4 0.6 10.4 52.0 21.2 44.5 38.4 11.8 0.8 6.4 36.3 6.2 39.2 33.7 7.6 0.7 4.7 26.4 4.7 28.8 25.1 6.4 0.8 3.7 20.2 4.4 23.8 21.0 5.3 0.8 3.1 16.6 3.9 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
GCPL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11