Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | August 16, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | August 16, 2012

International Commodities
News and Analysis UK retail sales rise to 0.3 percent in the month of July. Rupee depreciated by 0.70 percent in todays session. LME inventories of copper declined by 0.50 percent in todays trade. Global gold demand fell by 7 percent in Q2 to 990 tonnes- WGC. Indian Gold demand declined 38 percent in Q2 to 181 tonnes- WGC. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Open 5385.95 17752.22 8967.11 1956.35 14664.58 High 5390.65 17763.59 9094.09 1959.92 14743.78 Low 5356.65 17640.62 8962.97 1947.26 14628.08

as at 4.30 pm 16 August12
Last 5361.55 17657.21 9092.76 1957.91 14628.08 % Chg from Prev day -0.35 -0.40 1.88 0.05 0.55
Source: Reuters

European markets are trading in rangebound manner eyeing US housing permits and unemployment claims. Additionally, Spain is expected to receive an emergency disbursement from the 100 billion Euro ($123 billion) bailout of its financial system. US equities are also trading sideways anticipating mixed data from the nation in the later part of the evening today. UK retail sales for the month of July increased unexpectedly to 0.3 percent against 0.8 percent in the month of June. Spot gold prices traded sideways and were hovering around $1603.25/oz till 4:30 p.m on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1606.6/bbl and hovered around $1603.25/bbl today till 4:30pm IST. On the MCX, Gold October contract increased 0.2 percent taking cues from depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Taking cues from rise in gold prices, Spot silver prices also witnessed mixed trades and gained 0.07 percent today. However a stronger DX capped sharp gains in the prices. The white metal was trading around $27.81/oz till 4:30 p.m after touching a high $27.92/oz today. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee acted as a supportive factor for the upside in the prices on the MCX. The base metals traded on a negative note on the back of mixed global sentiments along with decline in the FDI into China indicating slow down in the economies. Additionally strength in the DX exerted downside pressure to the base metals prices. However, sharp decline in the base metal prices were cushioned tracking decline in the LME inventories. Nymex crude oil prices trading on mixed note down 0.06 percent marginally on the back of strength in the DX and observing slowdown in some of the major economies particularly China. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 0.97 percent on account of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and hovered around Rs.5,297/bbl today till 4:30pm IST. Natural gas inventories are expected to rise to 25 bcf as forecasted against 24bcf in the last week.

Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 16 August12
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 82.70 1.229 55.65 High 82.96 1.2306 56.035 Low 82.67 1.2254 55.65 Current 82.79 1.2281 55.91 % Chg from Prev day 0.10 -0.06 0.70
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 16 August12
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Oct12 MCX Gold Oct12 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sep12 MCX Silver Sep12 Crude Oil Nymex Sep 12 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug12 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Aug12 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Aug12 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Aug12 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Aug12 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1603.64 1600.20 30049.00 27.82 28.23 53510 94.21 116.55 5254 7409.00 415.00 1806.00 101.40 1827 103.80 15389 865.90 1840.00 102.25

1606.61 1604.70 30127.00 27.92 27.87 53618 94.61 116.66 5312 7443.75 415.60 1812.00 101.40 1845 103.80 15425 867.20 1847.00 102.30

1600.29 1600.20 30049.00 27.74 27.705 53471 93.93 115.86 5254 7383.50 413.40 1790.00 100.10 1826 102.55 15291 859.60 1831.00 101.60

1603.25 1604.20 30077.00 27.81 27.795 53553 94.27 116.34 5297 7394.00 413.50 1790.50 100.25 1835 102.85 15318 860.50 1833.50 101.65

0.02 0.03 0.24 0.07 -0.06 0.22 -0.06 0.08 0.97 -0.05 -0.29 -0.84 -1.33 0.23 -1.20 0.11 -0.80 -0.34 -0.93

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | August 16, 2012

International Commodities
Outlook In todays session we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade rangebound due to mixed economic data from the US economy and sideways trend in the global markets anticipating stimulus measures from the major economies of the world. Additionally strength in the in the US Dollar Index (DX) is likely to exert downside pressure on the commodities. However, if economic data from the US particularly unemployment claims come on a positive note prices might witness a reversal.

Technical Outook for evening session 16 August12 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'12 Spot Gold Silver Sep12 Spot Silver Crude Oil July '12 Nymex Crude Oil Aug12 Natural Gas July12 LME Copper Copper Aug'12 Zinc Aug12 Lead Aug12 Aluminum Aug12 Nickel Aug12 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29916 1592 53160 27.52 5168 92.6 149 7318 408.6 99.2 101.8 101 851.6 Support 1 30007 1599 53447 27.72 5224 93.6 152.6 7358 411.8 100 102.3 101.35 859 CMP 30063 1603.6 53520 27.85 5264 94.3 155.6 7397 413.6 100.2 102.8 101.6 861.1 Resistance1 30150 1610 53737 28.04 5314 95.2 159 7446 416.7 101.2 104.1 102.3 874 Resistance 2 30228 1616 53920 28.3 5367 96.15 161 7495 418.8 101.8 104.6 103 881

Important Events for Today

Indicator Retail Sales m/m CPI y/y Core CPI y/y Building Permits Unemployment Claims Housing Starts Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Country UK Euro Euro US US US US Time (IST) 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual 0.3% 2.4% 1.7% Forecast 0.1% 2.4% 1.9% 0.77M 365K 0.76M -4.3 Previous 0.1% 2.4% 1.6% 0.76M 361K 0.76M -12.9 Impact High Medium Medium High High Medium High