23 August 2012

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 August 2012

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
Over Valued ............................................................... 5
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks

Over Valued ................................................................. 5

Over Valued ................................................................................ 5
Under Valued .......................................................................... 5
Under Valued .......................................................................... 5

Beverages
Chemicals

Construction & Building Materials

Over Valued ................................................ 6

Under Valued ............................................... 6

Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Under Valued .......................................................... 6
Engineering & Machinery
Under Valued ................................................................. 7
Under Valued ..................................................... 7
Food Producers & Processors
Under Valued ....................................................................... 7
General Retail

Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ................................................................................. 7

Under Valued ...................................................... 8
Household Goods & Textiles
Over Valued ........................................... 8
Information Technology & Hardware

Health

Insurance
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Under Valued .............................................................................. 8

Under Valued ................................................................. 8
Over Valued ....................................................................... 9
Over Valued ............................................................ 9

Media & Entertainment

Over Valued .................................................................................. 9
Mining
Under Valued ............................................................................ 10
Over Valued ......................................... 10
Personal Care & Household Products
Over Valued .............................................. 10
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Oil & Gas

Under Valued ........................................................................ 11

Over Valued ................................................ 11
Software & Computer Services
Over Valued ....................................................... 11
Speciality & Other Finance

Real Estate

Support Services
Telecommunication Services
Transport

Over Valued ............................................................... 12

Over Valued .................................................... 12

Over Valued ............................................................................ 13

Under Valued ............................................................................... 13

Utilities
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ............................................................................. 15

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 2 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 August 2012

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 3 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 August 2012

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 4 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence

Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.

Price 12M Lo
315.70 251.40
377.60 267.30
222.50 165.90
401.70 305.00
839.50 558.24
1051.00 869.50
1546.00 1349.00

12M Hi
333.00
560.00
239.50
413.50
890.00
1113.00
1780.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
225.10 157.00
386.80 268.60
70.00
48.00
15.25
6.80

12M Hi
235.50
418.20
70.50
16.25

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
194.15 138.85
559.40 463.50
34.59
21.84
235.60 173.40
1403.00 1169.50

12M Hi
256.75
581.70
37.50
291.70
1662.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
447.00 348.00
1680.50 1118.00
2785.00 2005.00

12M Hi
462.30
1737.50
2868.50

Target
210
386
79
24

Beta
1.95
1.44
1.30
1.12

Target
102
940
51
-208
1121

Beta
1.86
1.16
1.84
1.34
1.69

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Buy

Target
496
1435
3274

Beta
0.49
0.55
1.01

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
YULE C ATTO
ZOTEFOAMS

Beta
0.68
0.56
0.87
1.33
1.09
0.71
0.57

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Target
472
534
248
368
581
980
1284

Over Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Over Valued

Automobiles & Parts

Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

23 August 2012

Price
2366.00
216.50
2350.00
1346.00
149.70
178.50

12M Lo
1597.00
107.50
1522.47
1025.00
127.40
109.00

12M Hi
2466.00
220.00
2407.16
1516.00
251.00
186.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Target
3716
289
6061
1580
303
178

Page 5 of 15

Beta
1.05
1.04
1.44
1.15
1.22
0.97

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials

Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
283.50
149.60
891.50
1456.00
497.30
268.30
42.88
220.00
643.50
500.00
1321.00
58.00
84.00
658.00
690.00
143.20
94.15
51.55
1042.00
2506.00

12M Lo
214.60
71.05
559.00
1048.00
336.10
235.50
35.50
180.00
395.00
239.25
1095.00
38.00
76.00
510.00
396.00
103.50
76.95
29.10
715.00
1425.00

12M Hi
311.00
153.40
902.50
1466.00
518.50
361.90
79.75
247.50
653.00
500.00
1489.00
67.00
103.75
725.00
706.50
143.20
123.20
52.75
1125.00
2558.00

Price 12M Lo
1091.00 685.00
599.00 434.30
122.50
86.75
249.50 180.90
222.40 128.50
1293.00 714.00
1534.00 800.00
1709.00 1039.00
0.11
0.08
140.25 120.50
240.00 185.00

12M Hi
1120.00
670.00
149.50
277.50
226.50
1317.00
1579.00
1902.00
0.24
203.50
275.00

Target
32
120
244
1314
111
-123
39
419
19
378
1410
98
60
267
345
27
140
3
719
756

Beta
0.83
1.46
1.06
0.69
1.10
1.11
0.76
0.62
1.04
1.27
1.00
1.10
1.30
0.87
1.14
1.00
1.64
1.53
1.88
1.41

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
606
743
192
270
60
843
2005
1690
0
301
175

Beta
0.74
1.18
1.28
1.39
2.12
0.98
1.26
1.44
0.81
1.59
1.11

Under Valued

Engineering & Machinery

Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
C OOKSON GROUP
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Under Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

23 August 2012

Price
68.88
352.40
332.50
612.50
393.70
415.80
338.00
883.50
5.50
267.50
2188.00
207.50
139.50
1977.00
648.50
1739.00

12M Lo
62.50
225.60
252.50
395.80
280.00
306.30
235.00
636.50
5.13
224.00
1511.00
135.60
139.50
1691.00
488.00
1375.00

12M Hi
96.75
437.10
340.00
747.50
483.70
431.90
345.00
1022.00
9.12
360.00
2322.00
213.00
219.50
2334.00
690.00
2236.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
155
467
587
756
374
324
344
1078
6
449
1534
198
100
1831
597
1687

Page 6 of 15

Beta
1.25
1.56
0.97
2.22
1.45
0.76
1.35
1.38
0.82
1.79
1.02
1.70
1.00
0.85
1.46
1.39

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Food & Drug Stores

Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
499.00 457.00
279.00 263.00
329.00 263.50
339.20 297.05
24.00
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
328.00
332.50
411.25
48.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
1302.00 1038.00
841.50 588.50
344.00 290.40
304.70 232.00
66.25
32.90
644.00 569.00
2250.00 1922.00

12M Hi
1314.00
858.00
368.90
332.20
180.00
720.50
2334.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
22.50
17.38
274.90 222.40
1376.00 1092.00
620.50 375.00
17.56
9.36
5.27
2.20
21.63
19.50
235.00 189.00
2.85
2.85
651.00 570.00
49.75
38.00
285.10 223.30
360.20 301.80
44.75
31.25
219.50 127.30
3608.00 2230.00
975.00 633.00
48.50
21.50

12M Hi
24.00
291.00
1586.00
728.50
19.64
7.39
103.00
342.30
21.00
874.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
51.00
374.00
3641.00
990.00
49.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
1567
1726
389
434
-175
1294
2245

Beta
0.60
0.59
0.89
0.31
1.41
0.62
0.59

LT Rec
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
29
287
719
262
38
4
110
398
-26
1300
313
353
432
59
102
2714
527
27

Beta
0.70
0.52
1.33
0.96
1.54
0.93
1.02
0.65
0.85
0.48
1.25
0.96
0.73
1.02
0.44
0.73
0.55
1.29

Over Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Beta
0.48
0.41
0.67
0.72
0.83

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Target
291
381
554
417
25

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors

Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

23 August 2012

Price 12M Lo
734.75 498.00
59.00
35.25
649.50 540.50

12M Hi
743.50
59.00
678.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
621
58
690

Page 7 of 15

Beta
0.49
0.68
0.38

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Household Goods & Textiles

Stock
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
647.50 405.00
308.00 233.25
82.50
70.25

12M Hi
647.50
310.00
141.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
580.00 469.00
331.70 154.10
31.50
14.50
556.50 314.00
87.50
41.00
155.20 105.80
225.00
96.00

12M Hi
645.00
338.40
35.00
717.00
87.75
174.00
230.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1186.00 787.00
383.40 270.60
168.80 111.00
453.30 336.00
453.40 340.50
780.00 616.00
113.50
97.65
385.00 285.00

12M Hi
1535.00
389.10
168.90
465.10
462.00
790.00
115.80
388.50

Beta
0.40
0.92
0.74

Target
399
621
35
241
284
524
45

Beta
0.76
1.20
0.78
1.08
1.33
0.97
0.99

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
488
-2406
1263
646
1720
2667
1411
1609

Beta
0.57
0.51
0.56
0.33
0.49
0.30
0.45
0.48

Under Valued

Leisure & Hotels

Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Target
621
296
100

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Buy

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware

Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
PSION
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

23 August 2012

Price 12M Lo
2138.00 1750.00
56.00
26.50
210.00 136.70
725.00 621.00
564.00 411.40
172.80 114.00
1614.00 955.00
478.50 371.20
269.80 215.60
97.00
93.20
6.60
5.61
130.00 111.00
321.10 267.00
466.50 371.30
2102.00 1432.00
298.50 183.30
110.50
84.60

12M Hi
2369.00
70.00
213.00
740.00
611.00
181.40
1725.00
513.00
280.90
174.00
12.50
150.90
328.30
474.00
2165.00
314.60
112.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy

Target
4659
36
698
712
567
166
1402
582
350
60
-164
191
299
636
1850
265
152

Page 8 of 15

Beta
0.99
1.65
0.97
0.41
0.90
0.96
1.19
1.35
1.05
1.24
1.21
0.89
0.85
0.77
1.01
0.93
1.20

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
328.50 255.30
170.00 155.25
131.90
89.80
169.00
98.48
790.50 509.00
352.40 294.00

12M Hi
382.60
226.00
135.00
172.30
824.00
375.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
237.20 116.17
146.50
91.25
756.00 618.50
35.00
28.50
473.75 343.40
765.00 522.50
400.80 313.90
202.70 157.70
83.65
51.65
5.60
4.11
1215.00 1060.00
44.50
36.25
275.00 205.87
28.60
26.21
89.00
76.25
73.25
67.50
42.00
25.50
685.00 416.00
103.00
78.50
849.50 578.00
1.13
1.08

12M Hi
237.60
146.50
773.00
45.13
485.00
828.00
451.00
240.60
89.90
7.90
1294.00
62.25
377.50
30.32
119.50
95.25
54.25
696.00
106.00
880.00
6.27

ST Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Beta
1.29
0.66
1.67
1.62
1.72
0.85

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell

Target
-301
780
66
1921
1689
89
294
521
739
240
1333
466
362
507
-240
1800
546
262
499
532
17

Beta
1.30
0.42
0.57
0.98
1.05
0.96
1.56
1.42
1.54
1.28
0.66
0.81
0.26
0.54
0.78
1.31
1.41
1.34
0.82
1.30
1.12

Over Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Target
900
275
221
137
706
328

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment

Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
HIBU

23 August 2012

Price
1910.00
265.50
1120.00
1947.00
613.00
6145.00
2979.50
4.90

12M Lo
1854.00
221.25
900.50
1667.00
610.00
4596.00
2712.50
4.90
832.50
916.60 764.00

12M Hi
2910.00
340.00
1399.00
2206.50
1313.00
7565.00
3988.00
47.00
1502.00
1283.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy

Target
3077
291
896
3358
858
3010
3663
135
2513
1121

Page 9 of 15

Beta
1.72
1.01
1.44
1.43
1.95
0.31
1.43
0.90
2.14
1.76

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Oil & Gas

Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
MELROSE RESOURC ES
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL A(LON)
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

Price
1297.50
447.00
297.80
9.25
800.00
87.00
130.00
376.00
2222.00
2304.50
336.00
1379.00
813.00

12M Lo
1144.00
363.20
248.20
8.30
530.00
83.75
93.00
310.00
1928.50
1941.00
254.90
946.50
469.90

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
379.03
12.13
968.00
196.50
169.75
449.70
2402.00
2489.00
363.80
1601.00
837.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
128.50 105.00
306.00 285.00
3536.00 3100.00

12M Hi
135.12
374.20
3660.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
3.08
2959.00
319.00
496.00
1442.50
2.08
7.62
1941.00
94.00
24.75

Target
1040
1327
-16
13
477
259
616
261
7366
9155
222
624
793

Beta
0.77
1.06
1.37
0.91
1.27
1.45
1.26
1.39
0.92
0.92
0.53
1.10
1.36

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Sell

Target
113
345
3272

Beta
0.84
0.72
0.35

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products

Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

23 August 2012

12M Lo
2.54
2591.00
238.00
392.50
1264.50
2.08
5.88
1743.00
31.00
18.75

12M Hi
4.40
3111.50
423.00
524.84
1507.50
6.40
9.50
2300.00
101.50
38.25

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
25
5510
333
1662
373
10
3
1418
254
86

Page 10 of 15

Beta
1.02
0.49
0.65
0.28
0.49
0.67
0.93
0.67
0.70
0.84

Intellisys

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock
BIG YELLOW GROUP
BRITISH LAND
C APITAL & REGIONAL
C LS HOLDINGS
DERWENT LONDON
DEVELOPMENT SEC S.
GRAINGER
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES
HAMMERSON
HELIC AL BAR
LAND SEC URITIES GROUP
C APITAL SHOPC TS.GROUP
MC KAY SEC URITIES
MUC KLOW (A & J) GROUP
QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS
SHAFTESBURY
SEGRO
ST MODWEN PROPS.
TOWN C ENTRE SEC URITIES
UNITE GROUP
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPAC E GROUP

23 August 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Price 12M Lo
303.00 218.00
544.50 444.00
23.50
23.00
699.00 520.00
1949.00 1400.00
162.00 121.75
100.80
77.30
437.80 312.90
454.60 345.20
197.00 163.50
805.00 612.00
329.00 288.70
137.00 108.50
366.25 280.25
53.50
32.50
399.20 256.20
529.00 445.20
241.10 195.00
207.00 103.50
180.00 130.00
216.00 152.90
2.25
1.75
256.00 212.50

12M Hi
330.00
549.50
38.13
725.00
2021.00
204.75
116.00
443.50
474.50
234.25
815.00
354.20
141.00
390.00
53.50
399.20
549.00
259.50
220.00
189.50
228.00
4.13
260.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
20.63
18.25
127.00
57.75
1829.00 1298.00
378.00 292.40
279.00 225.00
19.50
16.75
104.90
58.95
566.50 276.89
212.00 154.75
79.38
41.50
1415.00 1394.00
299.00 240.30

12M Hi
27.00
132.30
1869.00
461.90
341.00
22.25
110.90
566.50
231.75
105.00
1766.00
312.40

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

Target
37
54
919
1071
245
16
131
564
406
-71
1474
267

Beta
0.69
0.86
1.41
1.04
1.13
0.85
1.14
0.81
0.87
0.52
0.82
0.74

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance

Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Beta
1.11
1.03
0.78
0.67
1.19
0.94
1.44
1.04
1.12
0.71
1.13
1.09
0.70
0.47
1.12
0.66
0.98
1.63
1.44
0.96
1.71
1.00
0.99

Over Valued

Software & Computer Services

Stock
TIMEWEAVE
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
LOGIC A SUSP - 20/08/12
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Target
-301
780
66
1921
1689
89
294
521
739
240
1333
466
362
507
-240
1800
546
262
499
532
17
113
569

Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
277.50 167.80
283.80
147.90 113.70
177.00
9850.00 8800.00 10250.00
294.50 240.00
297.50
175.00 115.63
187.00
782.50 590.00
812.00
89.80
56.05
90.95
1.08
0.87
3.22
109.70
90.55
131.10
328.00 301.10
488.60
288.10 197.90
303.90
386.00 310.40
441.70
1000.00 756.50 1093.00
76.80
63.25
240.10
1304.00 989.00 1373.00
1424.00 1166.00 1650.00
1151.00 966.00 1309.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy

Target
88
91
9013
177
106
236
92
95
53
200
109
-38
1465
91
1018
1038
4000

Page 11 of 15

Beta
1.11
0.75
0.81
0.95
0.69
0.85
0.89
0.65
1.46
1.05
1.60
1.53
1.15
1.29
0.77
1.34
1.28

Intellisys

23 August 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
MOUC HEL GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Price 12M Lo
182.50 166.25
2255.00 1522.00
1113.00 740.50
270.20
99.40
893.50 595.00
361.50 300.25
1095.00 722.00
240.75 192.25
730.50 602.00
35.75
23.75
710.50 512.50
515.00 402.70
1064.00 772.00
917.00 727.00
425.00 284.00
224.40 182.20
527.50 313.20
265.10 219.90
80.70
58.85
218.00 137.50
347.10 270.10
2757.00 1744.00
28.00
25.25
24.88
21.25
616.00 475.00
362.40 323.00
281.00 208.70
1.08
0.96
150.00 124.75
712.00 465.00
189.10 144.50
101.50
64.00
77.90
58.20
425.80 299.80
357.00 304.50
190.50 158.25
426.00 300.50
240.80 156.60
572.00 458.00
88.00
75.80
25.50
18.50
89.00
40.50
45.75
36.25
308.50 191.00
48.75
42.00

12M Hi
248.00
2316.00
1171.00
272.30
899.50
392.50
1167.00
275.25
767.00
39.75
727.00
540.50
1070.00
935.00
460.50
263.00
540.00
292.10
92.50
490.30
355.00
2842.00
32.00
41.25
652.00
497.00
296.70
50.50
166.50
740.00
228.80
117.50
89.90
444.60
385.00
264.63
427.00
250.00
602.00
115.90
30.50
92.63
49.50
311.50
63.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Beta
0.86
1.10
1.10
1.56
0.45
0.77
0.53
0.29
0.50
0.77
0.70
1.01
#NA
0.19
0.98
1.04
1.11
0.58
1.06
0.91
1.26
0.82
1.08
0.70
1.41
1.40
0.56
0.80
0.43
0.71
1.28
1.42
1.30
0.88
0.81
1.23
0.79
1.55
0.58
1.45
1.26
0.51
0.93
0.90
0.77

Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Target
287
997
890
243
549
637
688
379
400
71
519
781
510
579
326
255
281
240
99
376
598
1136
76
47
1062
251
286
1
200
481
215
94
43
496
358
264
439
212
474
141
47
47
42
502
130

Price 12M Lo
215.50 161.00
33.55
27.28
573.00 389.30
77.55
65.60
816.00 612.00
183.85 157.50

12M Hi
232.10
45.16
573.50
79.00
890.00
191.25

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Target
264
66
503
102
569
140

Page 12 of 15

Beta
0.90
0.67
0.55
1.27
0.03
0.55

Intellisys

23 August 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Price 12M Lo
189.40 156.00
380.00 282.00
1265.00 1015.00
541.00 309.27
245.30 187.40
690.00 460.00
1270.00 1086.00
222.70 180.00
218.75 159.60
293.00 230.40
60.75
31.00

12M Hi
218.80
422.50
1390.00
572.50
370.20
690.00
1583.00
252.00
276.50
297.20
102.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell

Beta
1.31
0.99
0.79
0.80
1.02
0.82
0.95
1.36
1.41
0.96
0.89

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SSE
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Target
169
414
1310
478
427
324
1354
209
370
280
-67

Price 12M Lo
326.00 278.80
693.50 589.50
736.50 638.00
1354.00 1209.00
1729.00 1420.00
714.50 579.50

12M Hi
330.10
703.50
796.00
1445.00
1796.00
728.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell

Target
464
840
773
1674
1508
666

Page 13 of 15

Beta
0.47
0.53
0.55
0.44
0.35
0.50

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 August 2012

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report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions
imposed by internal rules.

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

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Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

23 August 2012

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get back
the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange
rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

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