NEWS: UK COMMERCIAL RADIO OWNERS COMPLAIN TO RAJAR OF VOLATILITY IN QUARTERLY AUDIENCE RATINGS by GRANT GODDARD

www.grantgoddard.co.uk August 2005

Three commercial radio groups are in discussions with radio research organisation RAJAR to find a way to curtail the volatility evident in recent quarterly station ratings. One possible solution suggested by GCap Media plc, Chrysalis plc and EMAP plc would be to calculate data as a six-month moving average, rather than quarter-by-quarter, a change that was adopted by 'Virgin Radio' last year. Phil Riley, Chrysalis Radio chief executive, said: "We're all seeing RAJAR show more volatility than it used to. There are lots more stations in the diary than there used to be and the current system is being stretched to cope with that. The new system should reduce volatility, but we are yet to see what the contractors come back with. We've got an increasingly sophisticated market and we need an increasingly sophisticated RAJAR system to cope with it." Richard Menzies-Gow, media analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wassserstein which represents Chrysalis, added: "In our view, the key feature is the ongoing volatility of station statistics quarter-to-quarter. While RAJAR is addressing this issue in the move to electronic measurement, we think this cannot come soon enough for the industry. He said the ratings volatility of Chrysalis 'Heart FM' London station was "startling and that while the Jamie Theakston [breakfast show] changeover might have led to some disruptive attrition he started three weeks into the Quarter Two survey, with marketing starting halfway through it could not account for this degree of movement. In contrast, 'LBC' total hours grew 91.6% quarter-on-quarter and 33.3% year-on-year. The election could have stirred interest in its talk and news output, but not to this extent. Recent terrorist activity is likely to be a bigger stimulant next quarter." At 'West Sound' in Ayrshire, whose share of listening has fallen from 36% to 29% year-on-year, managing director Sheena Borthwick blamed the volatility on digital radio: A year ago, there were fourteen stations in our area. Now, with digital, there are 44. The loyalty factor is just not there anymore. Listening habits are changing with the onset of digital radio and I have a few issues with the way the [RAJAR] diaries are placed. It could just be that they were placed in houses that are light listeners. Next time it could be with heavy listeners. A spokesperson for 'Virgin Radio' said that its switch to six-monthly data had produced the desired effect: "We were looking to remove the volatility from our figures by creating a more robust sample." A spokesperson for RAJAR commented: "Volatility is due to two things. First, it is real. Volatility in the market is caused by the high competition, stations changing presenters and running marketing campaigns. It is accentuated by the closeness of competition and the explosion of it, especially in London. The second reason is that volatility can be caused by sample size. Electronic measurement will not stop it. Volatility is a feature of sample size, not methodology." The spokesperson added: "RAJAR is looking at ways of increasing the survey sample to reduce volatility." The issue is expected to be discussed at RAJARs September board meeting.

News: UK Commercial Radio Owners Complain To RAJAR Of Volatility In Quarterly Audience Ratings 2005 Grant Goddard

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[First published in 'The Radio Magazine' as 'Groups Want RAJAR Volatility Reduced', #698, 24 August 2005]

Grant Goddard is a media analyst / radio specialist / radio consultant with thirty years of experience in the broadcasting industry, having held senior management and consultancy roles within the commercial media sector in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia. Details at http://www.grantgoddard.co.uk

News: UK Commercial Radio Owners Complain To RAJAR Of Volatility In Quarterly Audience Ratings 2005 Grant Goddard

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