Smith ahead in the polls

Smith leads Raja by double digits, 54%-38%

Wednesday, August 29th Mt. Lebanon, PA - Rep. Matt Smith today released a polling memo showing him with a commanding 54%-38% lead over Raja in the race to replace retired State Sen. John Pippy in the 37th Senate district. Im extremely proud of the vast and growing support that I have received in my campaign for the State Senate. It is clear that the voters support my vision for building the future here in Western Pennsylvania by investing in education and creating jobs, and I intend to work hard to earn the privilege of serving the residents of the 37th district as their State Senator. The full polling memo is attached. ### Campaign Contact: Jake Pawlak jake@votemattsmith.com 412-478-7769

August 10, 2012 TO: Interested Parties FR: Marc Silverman RE: Polling results in Pennsylvania Senate District 37 Recent polling in Pennsylvanias 37th State Senate district shows Democrat Matt Smith in position to win this Republican-held seat. Smith leads Republican State Senate candidate Raja by double-digits. The 37th district is a true swing district, with a nearly even generic ballot. Mitt Romney has a slight advantage over President Obama, while U. S. Senator Bob Casey leads in his race. Smith should be able to hold onto this lead and win as long as he has the resources to effectively communicate with voters. The Current Vote Smith is over 50% on the current vote and leads Raja by 16 points (54% Smith / 38% Raja / 8% undecided). Raja finds himself with a difficult task as he must drive voters away from Smith, who is already over 50%, while winning over nearly every undecided voter. Unfortunately, undecided voters identify themselves as 44% Democratic / 39% Republican / 17% independent, so Raja has no built-in advantage with them. Rajas task is even more daunting because he begins this race with a net-unfavorable rating (36% favorable / 41% unfavorable / 23% cant rate), and voters are already inclined not to vote for him.

The Political Environment The generic ballot is extremely competitive with Republicans holding a two-point advantage, 44% Democratic / 46% Republican / 12% persuadable. Rajas netunfavorable rating is taking a toll on his vote total as he cannot even hold on to generic ballot Republicans. The race for President is very close with Mitt Romney holding a one-point lead (46% Obama / 47% Romney / 7% undecided). U.S. Senator Bob Casey leads Republican Tom Smith by 4 points (50% Casey / 46% Smith / 4% undecided).

Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies conducted N=400 interviews with likely 2012 general election voters in Pennsylvanias 37th State Senate District. Interviews were conducted August 6-9, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +4.9% with a 95% confidence level.