MEDIARELEASE

(September 17, 2012)

FROM:

Prof. Ronald D. Holmes President Pulse Asia, Inc.

RE:

Pulse Asias September 2012 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on the Filipinos Senatorial Preferences from the March 2012 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information. The survey fieldwork was conducted from August 31 to September 7, 2012 using face-to-face interviews. Among the news that preoccupied Filipinos immediately before and during the conduct of the interviews for the survey are: (1) the death of Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Jesus M. Robredo in a plane crash on 18 August 2012; (2) Malacaangs confirmation that the late DILG Secretary was investigating several sensitive government matters prior to his death; (3) the appointment of Supreme Court Associate Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno as the 24th Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, of Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) Secretary Manuel A. Roxas II as the new DILG Secretary and of Cavite Representative Joseph Emilio Abaya as DOTC Secretary Roxass replacement; (4) ongoing discussions on the Reproductive Health (RH) bill at the Senate; (5) the continuing tension between the Philippines and China over territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea; (6) the approval of the P 351 billion flood control master plan for Metro Manila; (7) the investigation into the alleged kidnapping of Mr. Rolito Go at the New Bilibid Prison (NBP); (8) public outcry over the reported escape of former Palawan

Governor Joel Reyes and his brother Coron Palawan Mayor Mario Reyes, allegedly with the aid of two immigration employees; (9) a 7.9-magnitude earthquake off the coast of Eastern Samar that occurred on 31 August 2012; (10) the filing of tax evasion charges against former Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato C. Corona and (11) in economic news, the improvement in the competitiveness ranking of the Philippines from 75th place in 2011 to 65th place this year (out of 144 countries), the 5.9% growth in the Philippine economy in the second quarter of 2012, the increase in inflation rate to 3.8% in August, the decline in electricity rates in September 2012 and the increase in oil and LPG prices. As in our previous surveys, this nationwide survey is based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey's questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used. Pulse Asias pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort. For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Pulse Asias September 2012 Ulat ng Bayan Survey: Media Release on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences 17 September 2012 Out of 36 probable senatorial candidates included in this survey, 15 have a statistical chance of winning; Senator Loren Legarda lands in solo first place (67.3%) If the May 2013 senatorial elections were held during the survey period, 15 out of 36 individuals included in this surveys senatorial probe would have a statistical chance of winning. Virtually all of the probable winners are either former or incumbent members of Congress. Occupying solo first place is Senator Loren Legarda, who currently enjoys the support of 67.3% of Filipino adults. In second place is Senator Francis G. Escudero (61.2%). Sharing 3rd to 5th places are Senator Alan Peter S. Cayetano (49.9%), San Juan City Representative JV Ejercito Estrada (49.9%) and Cagayan Province Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr. (47.4%). (Please refer to Table 1.) Three individuals find themselves in 6th to 10th places Senator Antonio F. Trillanes IV (41.2%), Senator Gregorio B. Honasan (40.6%) and Senator Aquilino Martin Pimentel III (39.2%). Meanwhile, former Senator Juan Miguel F. Zubiri (37.4%) and Aurora Province Representative Edgardo M. Angara (35.9%) share 6th to 11th places. Former Las Pias City Representative Cynthia A. Villar (32.7%) currently ranks 9th to 11th. Four individuals occupy 12th place although their lowest statistical ranking (i.e., 15th to 17th places) puts them out of the winners circle Ms. Ma. Lourdes Nancy Binay (27.4%, 12th to 15th places), former Senator Richard J. Gordon (26.2%, 12th to 16th places), former Senator Ramon Magsaysay, Jr. (25.2%, 12th to 16th places) and former Senator Ana Madrigal (23.2%, 12th to 17th places). Less than one in ten Filipinos (6.0%) is not inclined to elect any of the probable candidates whose senatorial chances are probed by Pulse Asia in this survey.

Table 1 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

August 31 - September 7, 2012 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Aware LEGARDA, Loren ESCUDERO, Francis "Chiz" G. CAYETANO, Alan Peter "Compaero" S. ESTRADA, JV Ejercito ENRILE, Juan Ponce "Enrile" Jr. TRILLANES, Antonio "Sonny" F. IV HONASAN, Gregorio "Gringo" B. PIMENTEL, Aquilino Martin "Koko" III ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel "Migz" F. ANGARA, Edgardo "Sonny" M. VILLAR, Cynthia A. BINAY, Ma. Lourdes Nancy "Nancy" GORDON, Richard "Dick" J. MAGSAYSAY, Ramon "Jun" Jr. MADRIGAL, Ana "Jamby" DE LIMA, Leila M. HONTIVEROS-BARAQUEL, Ana "Risa Hontiveros" BIAZON, Rozzano Rufino "Ruffy" B. POE, Grace "FPJ" TULFO, Ramon "Mon" Jr. DE VENECIA, Jose III "Joey" P. AQUINO, Paolo Benigno "Bam" A. MACEDA, Ernesto "Manong Ernie" BARBERS, Robert Ace "Ace" GARCIA, Gwendolyn "Gwen" VILLANUEVA, Emmanuel Joel "Joel" J. FARIAS, Rodolfo "Rudy" C. MAGSAYSAY, Ma. Milagros "Mitos" H. LOZADA, Rodolfo "Jun" Jr. LINA, Jose "Joey" D. Jr. GATCHALIAN, Sherwin "Win" T. TAADA, Lorenzo "Erin" R. III TAMANO, Adel LACSAMANA, Vanessa Moreno "Alma Moreno" CASIO, Teddy A. REMOTO, Danton None / Refused / Undecided 98 98 94 96 93 92 97 89 91 92 93 71 86 81 89 86 70 77 74 85 85 51 83 75 49 50 56 57 67 55 51 53 40 94 51 18 ---

Voting For 67.3 61.2 49.9 49.9 47.4 41.2 40.6 39.2 37.4 35.9 32.7 27.4 26.2 25.4 23.2 21.9 19.9 18.4 17.4 16.7 16.5 16.0 15.2 9.1 8.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.1 5.6 5.0 4.9 4.5 3.3 2.9 1.2 6.0

Rank 1 2 3-5 3-5 3-5 6-10 6-10 6-10 6-11 6-11 9-11 12-15 12-16 12-16 12-17 13-18 15-22 16-23 17-23 17-23 17-23 17-23 18-23 24-29 24-29 24-32 24-33 24-33 24-33 26-34 26-35 26-35 27-35 30-35 31-35 36 ---

Q9. Kung ang nasabing halalan sa 2013 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na personalidad ang inyong iboboto kung sakaling sila ay kakandidato sa pagka-senador? Puwede kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan. Q10. May nabasa, narinig o napanood na ba kayo na kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod kahit na kailan?

In September 2012, Filipinos are naming a mean of eight and a median of nine of their preferred senatorial candidates; 40% of Filipinos already have a complete slate for the May 2013 senatorial elections On average, Filipinos are presently identifying eight of their favored senatorial candidates for the coming midterm elections. Across survey sub-groupings, mean figures range from seven in the Visayas (particularly rural Visayas) and among Filipinos aged 55 years old and above, Ilocanos and Ilonggos to 11 among Pangasinenses. On the other hand, the overall median figure is nine while across survey sub-groupings, figures vary from six in the oldest age cohort to 12 in all of Mindanao and among vocational school graduates, members of Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), Muslims, Pangasinenses and Kapampangans. (Please refer to Table 2.) Four in ten Filipinos (40%) already have a complete senatorial slate for next years elections. Most Kapampangans (52%), those in Mindanao (53% to 56%), vocational school graduates (53%), Muslims (53%), INC members (66%) and Pangasinenses (76%) are already naming 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their preferred senatorial bets. In contrast, only 20% of Ilonggos and 28% of those in the Visayas (i.e., more specifically 23% of rural Visayans) have a complete senatorial slate for May 2013. (Please refer to Table 3.)

Table 2 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES

August 31 - September 7, 2012 / Philippines
(Estimated Population Percentage) Base: Total Interviews, 100%
Mean Median

Demographic variables Total Philippines NCR Balance Luzon Urban Rural Visayas Urban Rural Mindanao Urban Rural Total Urban Total Rural Class ABC TOTAL D

Demographic variables Total Philippines

(Estimated Population Percentage)

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Mean Median

(100%) (13%) (44%) (21%) (23%) (20%) (7%) (13%) (23%) (7%) (16%) (49%) (51%) (9%) (65%) (45%) (21%) (26%) (50%) (50%) (17%) (22%) (21%) (17%) (14%) (9%)

8 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7

9 11 8 8 8 8 9 7 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 8 9 11 9 9 11 10 9 10 7 6

(100%) (26%) (13%) (30%) (9%) (11%) (12%) (53%) (4%) (13%) (24%) (12%) (47%) (82%) (3%) (2%) (3%) (11%) (40%) (3%) (2%) (6%) (3%) (10%) (29%) (---) (6%)

8 8 8 8 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 8 8 7 11 9 9 7 9 --9

9 8 8 10 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 12 8 12 9 9 8 12 12 10 7 10 --11

No formal educ/elem grad Some HS Completed HS Vocational Some college Completed coll/post coll Total Working Government Private Self-employed Farmer/Fisherfolk Not Working Roman Catholic Iglesia Ni Cristo Aglipayan Islam Others Tagalog Ilocano Pangasinense Kapampangan Bicolano Ilonggo Cebuano Waray Others

D1 (owns res'l lot) D2 (does not own res'l lot)

E Male Female 18-24 years old 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & up

Table 3 2013 ELECTIONS: NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

August 31 - September 7, 2012 / Philippines
Page 1 of 2

Demographic variables Total Philippines NCR Balance Luzon Urban Rural Visayas Urban Rural Mindanao Urban Rural Total Urban Total Rural

(Estimated Population Percentage)

(100%) (13%) (44%) (21%) (23%) (20%) (7%) (13%) (23%) (7%) (16%) (49%) (51%) (9%) (65%) (45%) (21%) (26%) (50%) (50%) (17%) (22%) (21%) (17%) (14%) (9%)

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

0
6 3 8 8 9 6 4 7 4 0 6 5 7 7 7 9 2 4 6 6 1 1 5 7 9 22

1
3 2 3 5 2 6 4 7 0 0 0 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 4 2 2 1 5 2 5 4

2
4 1 3 2 3 10 4 12 3 7 2 3 5 4 4 3 6 4 4 4 1 3 5 4 8 4

3
4 5 4 5 3 6 8 4 2 0 2 5 3 3 4 5 2 5 4 4 4 6 3 3 4 3

4
4 3 4 7 2 6 6 6 1 0 2 5 3 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 3 5 2 3

5
6 4 7 7 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 6 6 3 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 4 5 6 10 6

6
7 8 8 7 10 6 9 4 5 7 4 7 7 5 8 9 7 4 6 8 6 6 7 5 12 8

7
6 5 7 5 8 5 3 6 5 7 4 5 6 5 5 5 4 7 4 7 6 5 6 6 5 3

8
7 6 7 8 6 9 6 11 7 9 6 7 7 9 7 6 9 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 8 2

9
4 5 3 4 2 3 4 3 6 7 6 5 4 5 5 4 6 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 2 2

10
5 4 4 7 2 5 5 4 5 2 7 5 4 5 5 4 7 3 4 5 4 6 5 5 4 2

11
4 6 4 5 2 6 4 7 4 2 4 5 4 7 4 3 6 4 4 4 3 6 3 8 3 3

12
40 48 36 30 42 28 38 23 54 56 53 40 40 37 37 38 37 48 40 40 49 41 42 37 30 37

Class ABC TOTAL D D1 (owns res'l lot) D2 (does not own res'l lot) E Male Female 18-24 years old 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & up

Table 3 2013 ELECTIONS: NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

August 31 - September 7, 2012 / Philippines
Page 2 of 2

Demographic variables Total Philippines No formal educ/elem grad Some HS Completed HS Vocational Some college Completed coll/post coll Total Working Government Private Self-employed Farmer/Fisherfolk Not Working Roman Catholic Iglesia Ni Cristo Aglipayan Islam Others Tagalog Ilocano Pangasinense Kapampangan Bicolano Ilonggo Cebuano Waray Others

(Estimated Population Percentage)

(100%) (26%) (13%) (30%) (9%) (11%) (12%) (53%) (4%) (13%) (24%) (12%) (47%) (82%) (3%) (2%) (3%) (11%) (40%) (3%) (2%) (6%) (3%) (10%) (29%) (---) (6%)

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

0
6 7 10 6 2 2 7 6 5 4 7 6 6 6 8 0 0 11 8 8 0 0 0 6 6 --4

1
3 4 1 5 0 2 1 4 6 3 5 4 2 3 5 0 4 3 3 0 0 8 0 8 1 --2

2
4 8 3 2 1 4 6 5 6 6 4 4 3 4 0 5 2 5 3 7 0 2 0 13 5 --1

3
4 4 6 5 1 6 2 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 5 5 4 3 5 0 5 4 8 6 3 --1

4
4 2 7 4 2 6 4 3 0 3 3 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 5 7 0 0 8 7 3 --0

5
6 8 9 5 5 3 5 6 6 3 6 10 6 6 0 8 2 6 8 1 0 10 0 2 6 --1

6
7 10 6 5 2 6 12 7 11 11 6 5 7 7 11 12 8 4 6 23 5 12 8 6 4 --14

7
6 7 4 3 7 7 7 5 8 6 6 2 6 5 0 9 2 10 6 3 0 8 16 5 5 --7

8
7 7 8 7 7 9 5 7 3 8 6 11 7 8 5 12 8 4 6 14 5 4 5 8 8 --9

9
4 3 4 5 4 2 5 5 1 7 4 6 3 4 0 7 6 8 4 7 0 0 0 5 5 --3

10
5 4 4 4 9 8 4 5 2 4 6 4 5 5 0 2 2 4 5 2 5 0 8 6 5 --5

11
4 5 2 3 8 5 6 5 10 5 4 4 4 4 0 4 8 4 5 0 5 0 0 8 3 --7

12
40 32 37 46 53 40 37 37 38 34 38 38 44 39 66 35 53 38 37 27 76 52 46 20 46 --47