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Recommended Accuracy Goals for DMC Inferential Measurements

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Position Paper None Ronald C. Sorensen 03/22/2009 Rev 0 4

Background Many important DMC Control Variables involve Product Qualities (e.g., Freeze Pt., 90% Pt., etc), and thus, on-line Measurements are required. Inferential Measurements are often substituted for Online Analyzers because 1) Analyzer Total Cost of Ownership can be very high, and 2) Highly Skilled Manpower is necessary to keep them Running Reliably. The Inferential Measurement is calculated continuously from a Correlation with readily available, reliable measurements (Temp, Press, Flow, etc.). Various Modeling techniques (linear/nonlinear regression, principal component analysis, etc.) can be used to develop the correlation. The Inferential Measurement Equation takes the following form:

Where

Laboratory data obtained during special process test runs is used to develop the model correlation. Engineering design models/simulations can also be used, if available. The model form benefits from use of chemical engineering insight. For example, a stripping steam-to-bottoms ratio term improves flash point accuracy. Regular lab samples are used after implementation, to adjust the bias term to update the inferential. Recommended Goals for Inferential Accuracy Th m m g h standard deviation of the prediction error (without the added bias) is less than or equal to the lab .

Where

Inferential Measurement KPIs should be based on the above standard. ASTM Lab Reproducibility data is given in the remaining pages for common refinery inferential measurements.

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ASTM Definitions Repeatability: The difference between successive results obtained by the same operator with the same apparatus under constant operating conditions on identical test materials. Reproducibility: The difference between two single and independent results obtained by different operators working in different laboratories on identical material. ASTM D5972 Freezing Point of Aviation Fuels Repeatability Reproducibility = = 0.54C 0.80C

ASTM D93 Flash Point (Pensky-Martens Closed Cup Tester) Procedure A Repeatability = 0.029X (X = Mean Result in C) Example: JP5 Flash (148F - 152F) Repeatability = 3.4F Example: ATK Flash (104F - 108F) Repeatability = 2.1F Reproducibility = 0.071X (X = Mean Result in C) Example: JP5 Flash (148F - 152F) Reproducibility = 8.4F Example: ATK Flash (104F - 108F) Reproducibility = 5.3F Procedure B Repeatability = 2C 3.6F (Residual Fuel Oil) Repeatability = 5C 9.0F (Other Types Reproducibility = 6C 11F (Residual Fuel Oil) Reproducibility = 10C 18F (Other Types ASTM D2699 Octane (RON) Repeatability Reproducibility = = 0.2 RON 0.7 RON

ASTM D323 Reid Vapor Pressure

Procedure A Gasoline B Gasoline A A C D Aviation Gasoline Range kPa psi 35100 515 35100 515 035 05 110180 1626 >180 >26 50 7 Repeatability kPa psi 3.2 0.46 1.2 0.17 0.7 0.10 2.1 0.3 2.8 0.4 0.7 0.1 Reproducibility kPa psi 5.2 0.75 4.5 0.66 2.4 0.35 2.8 0.40 4.9 0.70 1.0 0.15

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The following tables are extracted from Suzanne Roat m S mD S v 1 09/10/2005. D-86 Reproducibility, ASTM D 86-05 Distillation, Volume % Manual Reproducibility IBP 5.6C 5 3.1C 10 2.0C 90 0.8C 95 1.1C FBP 7.2C D-2887 Reproducibility, ASTM D 2887-04a Distillation, Weight % Reproducibility* IBP 13.3C 5 5.8C 10 4.1C 90 4.3C 95 5.0C FBP 11.8C

mm

Automated Reproducibility 7.2C 4.4C 3.3C 0.7C 2.6C 8.9C

*Conversion to D86 results in better reproducibility for D 2887 (weight basis) versus D 86 (volume basis).

D-1160 Reproducibility, ASTM D 1160-03 Distillation, Volume % 1 mm Hg Vacuum * IBP 56C 5 >15C 10 >15C 90 >15C 95 >15C FBP 31C
*Reproducibility is a calculated number based on distillation range of sample.

10 mm Hg Vacuum * 49C >15C >15C >15C >15C 27C

D-6352 (HT750 SimDis) Reproducibility, ASTM D 6352-04 Distillation, Weight % Reproducibility* IBP 49.1C 5 9.0C 10 7.1C 90 10.5C 95 14.3C FBP 38.1C
*Conversion to D1160 results in better reproducibility for D 6352 (weight basis) versus D 1160 (volume basis).

Position Paper for Inferential Accuracy Revision 0

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