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Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presentation to Graduate Studies in Strategy & Defence Strategic and Defence Studies Centre The Australian National University September 26, 2012
Outline
The U.S. as a Pacific Power Geo-Strategic Importance Clinton Administration Policy 1990s Obama Administration (2009-12) U.S.-China Relations U.S. Rebalancing Recent Developments
Notes Pages
The United States is and will remain a Pacific power, bound to the Asia-Pacific region by virtue of our geography, history, alliances, economic ties and people.
Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, September 20, 2012.
Notes Pages
China asserts that the US is an outside power. Kurt Campbell: US is a Pacific nation and a resident power. What is the basis for this claim? Missionaries, Whalers and Traders late 18TH Century - US leading country for whale oil, this brought ships to waters off Japan. 1852-54 Opening of Japan US-Siam (Thailand) Treaty of Amity and Commerce, March 20, 1833, during the Presidency of Andrew Jackson and King Rama III. The two countries pledged to establish "a perpetual peace" between each other. This Treaty was the first such Treaty that the United States concluded with any Asian country. In 1850, the United States and Brunei concluded a Treaty of Peace, Friendship, Commerce and Navigation, which remains in force.
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Great White Fleet 1907-09 Washington Naval Conference 1921-22 Three wars: 1. World War II occupation of Japan Trusteeships evolved into Compact of Free Association nations of the Republic of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands
U.S.-Japan (1951 and 1960) Emerging partners: Singapore, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Malaysia and Vietnam.
Geo-Strategic Importance
Hainan Island
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Geo-Strategic Importance South China Sea vital throughway for global commerce and energy. One-third of world shipping passes through SCS. Worlds second busiest sea lane. Half of world annual merchant fleet tonnage goes via three straits; Malacca, Lombok and Sunda. 15 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Malacca Straits.
Geo-Strategic Importance
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Transit of US warships and aircraft from Pacific to Indian Ocean must pas through South China Sea.
High Seas donut hole UNCLOS: islands and rocks End of high seas if EEZs drawn around islands
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Crisis: July 21, 1995 to March 23, 1996. The first set of missiles fired in mid-to-late 1995 were intended to send a strong signal to the Republic of China government under Lee Teng-hui, who had been seen as moving ROC foreign policy away from the One-China policy. The second set of missiles were fired in early 1996, intending to intimidate the Taiwanese electorate in the run-up to the 1996 presidential election. Two aircraft carrier battle groups, Carrier Group Seven centered on USS Nimitz. and Carrier Group Five, centered on USS Independence deployed to area.
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Admiral Willard 2012: Chinas antiaccess/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities extend well into the SCS. China asserts these military developments are purely defensive in nature and that it poses no threat to neighbors in the region. Yet, combined with broad maritime and sovereignty claims and incidents with lawful operators in the SCS and ECS, there is ongoing international concern regarding Chinas activities in the South China Sea.
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Yulin can accommodate mix of attack and ballistic missile submarines and advanced surface combatants including aircraft carriers. Jin class Type 094, nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) that will eventually carry JL-2 submarine launched ballistic missile with range of 7,400 km. First credible sea based nuclear capability. DOD: first of the new JIN class Type 094 SSBN appears ready. Uncertain when it will be able to deploy JL-2 SLBM. Chinas single XIA-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and medium range JL-I SLBM remains questionable. China has about 62 submarines and is expected to add 15 in coming years.
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China signs a contract with U.S. firm Crestone Energy Corporation in May 1992 to explore for oil near the Spratly Islands in an area that Vietnam says is located on its continental shelf, over 600 miles south of China's Hainan Island. In September, Vietnam accuses China of drilling for oil in Vietnamese waters in the Gulf of Tonkin. April 18, 1994 Creston commences seismic data project southeast of HCMC. Mid-May1994 Vietnam begins oil exploration in waters near Tu Chinh/Wanan Reef/Vanguard Bank, demarcated blocks for external bidding, harssed Chinese scientific survey ships and fishing vessels. July 19, 1994 two Chinese frigates/warships blocked drilling activities by Vietnamese oil rig the Tam Dao (or Chinese turned back a Vietnamese supply vessel).
Obama Administration
Multilateralism
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation ASEAN
US-ASEAN Leaders Meeting
APEC Shangri-La Dialogue ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus ASEAN Regional Forum East Asia Summit
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Unprecedented commitment by the Obama Administration to the regions multilateral institutions principally ASEAN, Pacific Island Forum and APEC
U.S.-China Relations
>60 annual official dialogue mechanisms to coordinate strategic policy issues Defense Consultative Talks (1997) Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (1998) Special Policy Dialogue (2005)/Defense Policy Coordination Talks (2006)
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60 mechanisms include military-to-military contacts and strategic dialogues DCT twelve held by December 2011 MMCA eight held by 2010 DPCT five held by April 2011 Current US policy: Secretary Clinton in Beijing: US hope to build a cooperative and comprehensive relationship with China. New model of rising power meeting an established power.
U.S.-China Relations
Strategic and Economic Dialogue (2009)
Strategic Security Dialogue (2011) U.S.-China Consultation on the Asia-Pacific (2011)
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China 3 or 4 obstacles: The first and foremost obstacle is the U.S.-Taiwan military relationship The Taiwan issue is related to the core interests of China and is a core issue that prevents the development of the U.S.-China military relationship. If the U.S. side cant handle this issue very well, a healthy and stable China-US. Military relationship will not be possible. Second, U.S.-military aircraft and ships intrusions into Chinas maritime exclusive economic zone should be terminated. China hopes the U.S. military can observe UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and Chinese maritime legislation, and stop such acts which would threaten Chinas security and interests. Third, there is some U.S. legislation which restricts the development of the China-U.S. military relationship. Most notably is the 2000 Defense Authorization Act passed in 1999. Another obstacle is the United States lacking strategic trust in China.
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Kurt Campbell: beginning in 2007 new period of heightened tensions, stemming from a combination of intense demand for natural resources including hydrocarbons, rapidly improving capabilities to extract resources in deep mater. Fishing stocks in coastal and inland area have significantly declined due to overfishing and environmentally harmful techniques pushing fishing fleets further offshore in SCS.
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February 2009 US-China resume mid-level defence talks postponed since October 2008. On March 5, 2009, a Chinese frigate approached Impeccable, crossing its bow at a range of approximately 100 yards without first making contact. Two hours later a Chinese Y-12 aircraft, conducted 11 flyovers of Impeccable at an altitude of 600 feet (180 m) and a range from 100300 feet (3090 m). The frigate then crossed Impeccable's bow again, at a range of approximately 400500 yards. One Chinese crewmen used a grappling hook to try to snag Impeccable's towed sonar array. On March 7, a Chinese intelligence collection ship contacted the Impeccable over bridge-to-bridge radio, calling her operations illegal and directing Impeccable to leave the area or "suffer the consequences.
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2010 ARF Considered a major turning point. 9th Shangri-La Dialogue 2010 Our policy is clear: it is essential that stability, freedom of navigation, and free and unhindered economic development be maintained. We do not take sides on any competing sovereignty claims, but we do oppose the use of force and actions that hinder freedom of navigation. We object to any effort to intimidate U.S. corporations or those of any nation engaged in legitimate economic activity. US. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
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The United States supports a collaborative, diplomatic process by all claimants for resolving the various territorial disputes without coercion. We oppose the use or threat of force by any claimant. While the United States does not take sides on the competing territorial disputes over land features in the South China Sea, we believe claimants should pursue their territorial claim and the company [sic] and rights to maritime space in accordance with the UN convention on the law of the sea. Consistent with customary international law, legitimate claims to maritime space in the South China Sea should be derived solely from legitimate claims to land features.
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The United States supports a collaborative, diplomatic process by all claimants for resolving the various territorial disputes without coercion. We oppose the use or threat of force by any claimant. While the United States does not take sides on the competing territorial disputes over land features in the South China Sea, we believe claimants should pursue their territorial claim and the company [sic] and rights to maritime space in accordance with the UN convention on the law of the sea. Consistent with customary international law, legitimate claims to maritime space in the South China Sea should be derived solely from legitimate claims to land features.
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Because it is in the interest of all claimants and the broader international community for unimpeded commerce to proceed under lawful conditions. Respect for the interests of the international community and responsible efforts to address these unresolved claims and help create the conditions for resolution of the disputes and a lowering of regional tensions.
Eleven of the ARFs twenty-seven members joined the United States in raising maritime security/South China Sea issues: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia, European Union, Japan and South Korea. Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar did not raise the South China Sea issue, while Thailand was most vocal in urging a nonconfrontational stance towards China.
Kalayaan islands acquired after MDT 1991-92 Philippines terminates U.S. leases on bases Subic Bay, Clark AFB etc. Chinese assertiveness leads Aquino Administration to revitalize MDT Transfer of former Coast Guard cutters
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China charges : US emboldens and encourages assertiveness by the Philippines and Vietnam
U.S.-Vietnam Relations
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Highly symbolic fly outs to U.S. carriers transiting the South China Sea off Vietnams eastern coast. Vietnam Signaling US presence legitimate and needed Vietnamese Defence Minister enroute to Washington is pictured looking through the periscope of US nuclear submarine.
15th Anniversary of US-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations USS John S. McCain makes port call at Da Nang August 2010
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No US-Vietnam naval exercises Exercises involved exchange of combat skills Naval Activities involved noncombat training
damage control search and rescue drill exchange of cooking skills Salvage Civic action
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In July 2010: USN deployed thirty-one of its fifty-three fast attack submarines to the Pacific (prior to announcement of pivot) Our relationships with Asian allies and key partners are critical to the future stability and growth of the region. We will emphasize our existing alliances, which provide a vital foundation for Asia-Pacific security. We will expand our networks of cooperation with emerging partners throughout the Asia-Pacific to ensure collective capability and capacity for securing common interests. Defence cuts for the Pacific Commands Area of Responsibility will be quarantined. The US is strengthening its posture on Guam, stepping up weapons and equipment sales to the Philippines, negotiating new arrangements with Australia giving the U.S. greater access to training facilities near Darwin, and basing Combat Littoral Ships in Singapore.
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Rebalancing: comprehensive defense strategy to develop a force posture in the region that can better respond to non-traditional security threats, protect allies and partners, and ultimately defend the US national interests.
Recent Developments
45th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting July 2012
U.S. supports ASEAN, collaborative diplomatic approach and conclusion of COC
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US Policy (Kurt Campbell): peaceful approaches to disputes in the region. Long-term goal of supporting a rules-based order, undergirded by agreements and strong institutions, that can support the management, and, ultimately, resolution of the disputes. The US has a national interest in the maintenance of peace and stability; respect for international law; unimpeded lawful commerce; freedom of navigation and over flight in the SCS. The US opposes the use of coercion, intimidation, threats, or force by any claimant to advance its claims.
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The US supports 2002 DOC, multilateral diplomatic collaboration COC, international law, UNCLOS, self-restraint in conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, including steps to inhabit presently uninhabited land features.
Recent Developments
We are concerned by the increase of tensions in the South China Sea. Recent developments include an uptick in confrontational rhetoric, disagreements over resource expliotation, coercive economic actions, and the incidents around the Scarborough Reef, including the use of barriers to deny access [these] run counter to collaborative diplomatic efforts to resolve differences and risk further escalating tensions in the region.
U.S. Department of State, August 3, 2012
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We strongly support ASEANs efforts to build consensus on a principles-based mechanism for managing and preventing disputes. We encourage ASEAN and China to make meaningful progress toward finalizing a comprehensive Code of Conduct in order to establish rule of the road and clear procedures for peacefully addressing disagreements.
US endorses recent ASEAN Six Point Principles on the SCS.
Recent Developments
Chinas Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi visits
Indonesia and Malaysia (9-13 Aug)
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta visits Japan and China (15-20 Sept)
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US Policy SCS:/Secretary Clintons visit: Indonesia: plans for East Asia Summit and Code of Conduct China: full range of issues including SCS Brunei: chairmanship of ASEAN 2013 and EAS Panetta: China invited to take part in RIMPAC 2014
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