The 1st Futurology Manifesto

or The 2nd Futurist Manifesto, a Compendium of Future(s) Speculation W.T. von Hochmuth 11/11/11 IF HISTORY studies our past, if social sciences study our present, what is the study of our future? The answer is, we have none. There is a lens to view the past, a lens to study our present, but none to gaze forward into time. And this is why; the future is unknowable. Unpredictable. So we forget all about it. Its a paradox, attempting to know unknowable future(s). We shrug our arms in indifferent defeat, saying, "the issue of predictability is 'irrelevant'". And yet the future remains unknowable because we continue not to try. However, things can be predicted because predictability is relative, a matter of degree. While the future may be unknowable, truly, forecasting, a structure to understanding the future, has laws and methods. But instead of scientific predictions, we leave the future to our artists, to the dreams of Science Fiction, to our prophets, and theologians. The study of humanity in the future can not be ignored by academics, by scholars and thinkers, and should equal or surmount History and the study of our species in the past. This day, our larger understanding of science and the universe have catalyzed a situation which requires a new branch of knowledge about human affairs in the possible, probable, and preferable inevitability of future events. If History is defined as; a branch of knowledge that studies, records, and explains past events, particularly in human affairs- then Futurology should be known as a branch of knowledge that studies, predicts, and explains future events, particularly in human affairs. Today, Futurology exists. It has been accepted, merged with the social sciences. However, the term futurology, because of its multiplicity of meanings, has been replaced by the study of the future (future studies), a term implying the totality of prognostic theory and practice. It is in this sensenamely, as a descriptive synonym for the study of the futurethat futurology is still barely understood(E.Britannica). Prospective social processes are studied by many different sciences, and consequently, futurology has become broadly redefined as the study of current trends in order to forecast future developments. The idea has been birthed but the science is unborn. There are no professors, no universities, no students of the future, only of the dead past. The first Futurologist manifesto is a public declaration of the study of the future, its importance, its methods, its structure, its principles and intentions, of current trends and future developments, of predictions, probabilities, and future events. The first Futurologist Manifesto calls for H.G. Well's "Departments and Professors of Foresight", for 100 Singularity Universities, for sustainable institutions, for world-citizens, for a Great Transition from a reactive civilization, into an intentional one. The First Futurology Manifesto or the Second Futurist Manifesto (after F.T. Marinetti, 1st Futurist Manifesto) is a product of many minds. It was designed to represent an organic, developing future, an emerging science, a medium, a lens to gaze forward in time. A rallying call to the supranational ambition of any advanced species: guaranteeing its continuity. So these are the trends, the principles, the events, and the developments that will constitute our future, our knowable future. The 1st Futurology Manifesto exists to declare this knowledge, something that should be read, shared, and known by all. Look far into absurd macroscopic scales, look far into the future, ...far as [the] human eye can see, See the vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be(Tennyson). The greatest imperative of our people, lies in their continuity.

Isnt it plain that we ought to have not one or two Professors of Foresight, but whole faculties and departments of foresight doing all they can to anticipate and prepare for the consequences of this gathering together... of what were once widely dispersed human relationships? - H.G. Wells, http://i.imgur.com/pj4V3.jpg INDEX, TLDR I. The Paradox of Futurology II.The Singularity is Near III. The Problem of Induction IV. Ethics change with Technology V. Technology is the most biologically significant factor to the human species VI. Technological Completion Conjecture VII. God is Dead VIII. The Internet and Net Neutrality IX. "Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral." X. The potential of bio and neuro-feedback XI. The concept of impossibility is relative XII. Science is inclined to accelerating change XIII. Aliens exist XIV. Space Elevator, Lunar Base, and Launch Loop XV. The Future of Civilization in the Kardashev Scale XVI. The Future of the Earth will become uninhabitable XVII. Space Colonization is a biological imperative XVIII. The Neuroscience of History and Futurology

I. The Paradox of Futurology Futurology, like the pursuit of any knowledge, is paradoxical. Future Studies and Futurology, the unborn science of prediction, aim to estimate and study unpredictable future(s). The study of the future can be dichotomized between if [the possibility of an event] and when [a temporal likelihood of an event], to differentiate between postulation and probability. Futurology is the structure of the future, the same as history is a lens to view our past. The future can not be known, but prediction is no longer irrelevant; no oracle need be consulted, no magic crystal balls gazed into. The reality is that predictability is a matter of degree, relative, and different aspects of the future are predictable with varying degrees of reliability and precision. For there to be a degree of predictability, it is not necessary that it be possible to identify one specific scenario as what will definitely happen. If there is at least some scenario that can be ruled out, that is indeed a degree of predictability(Bostrom). Futura and Facta: http://iranscope.ghandchi.com/Anthology/Jouvenel.htm II. The Singularity is Near Technology advances at a rate that almost halves itself upon each subsequent invention. Accordingly, man is at a precipice of civilization in which the exponential nature of technology has become almost instantaneous. Famous thinkers consider this event, 'The Technological Singularity', a moment which will yield the creation of Artificial Intelligence or computational hyperintelligence. Concurrently, the Longevity Escape Velocity, LEV, becomes a possibility, and it is feasible that the last mortal generations walk the planet. The acceleration of technology will yield life extension technologies for the international cultural elite until perfect regeneration of the human body, immortality, is a reality. Modern man fails to realize he is the inheritor of the great march of technology, an exponential progression which, at this fragile point in history, will soon become too rapid to predict. [Inventor, Ray Kurzweil] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near Should we believe in the Singularity?:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/tech-luminaries-address-singularity
III. The Problem of Induction and the Uncertainty Clause In the philosophy of science, there is deductive and inductive reasoning. However, Induction or Inductive reasoning throughout the history of science is inherently flawed; it can not be proven because it is essentially a conjecture whereas deductive reasoning is a proof. An example of inductive reasoning: Every life form that everyone knows of depends on liquid water to exist. Therefore, all known life depends on liquid water to exist. Almost all scientific hypotheses are varying degrees of strong inductive reasoning, relying on the known, or observable world. Nevertheless, induction is a probabilistic claim, and thus we can not know for certain if it is sound, given time t. Consequently, the Problem of Induction in Futurology is fundamentally our uncertainty clause, that asserts the probability of chaotic or unknown factors, rendering each and every prediction and future scenario always, in the end, an uncertainty.

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/induction-problem/
IV. Technology is the most biologically significant factor to the human species Technological progress is directly responsible for human population, its growth, and continuity. Technological innovations has largely been the force behind man's unnatural long life, city living, and domination of his environment. We as Humans, through the intertwining development of our technology and biology, are apex predators unchained to one single habitat, a single continent, or even a single planet. In a state of civilization we are dependent upon technology. It has made us what we are, it is the very way I can communicate to you right now. As such, the Industrial Revolution as experienced in 18th century Britain was the most biologically significant event for the human species, causing exponential increases in population. A rough example:

EVENT Tool making Domestication Agriculture Industrialization Computation

TIME AGO 500,000 years ago 75,000 years ago 15,000 years ago 220 years ago 60 years ago

POPULATION 100,000 1,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 (7 billion) 7,000,000,000

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page17.html
V. Ethics change with Technology Niven's Law: The one consistent principle of culture, morals, and ethics is that they will ultimately be subject to evolve and change. Planetary and space-faring civilizations are obliged to be techno-centrist, as the cooperative, collective, and controlled pursuit of innovation yields the greatest possible technological completion. "Shatter the old law tables!" Nietzsche [From L. Niven, Futurologist and Science Fiction writer] VI. Technological Completion Conjecture If scientific and technological development efforts do not effectively cease, then all important basic capabilities that could be obtained through some possible technology will be obtained (Bostrom). It remains inalienable that man has emerged as a result of continuous processes

and there will continue to be a future of human evolution. Prosthetic limbs, the Man-Machine Interface, inventions such as BrainGate(controlling robots with the mind) suggest an intertwining of the artificial/mechanical with the organic, the biological. Natural selective pressures such as speed, wit, and strength have been altered with civilization's artificial selective pressures. Telekinesis will be commonplace, with appliances controlled by brain scanners; microscopic sensors will continuously monitor cells for signs of danger, extending human life span; Internetenabled contact lenses will tag anything and anyone in sight, enabling omniscience on demand(Kaku). In short, by the 22nd century man shall, in the eyes of his early predecessors, wield godlike powers. i) Technological Completion Conjecture: If scientific and technological development efforts do not effectively cease, then all important basic capabilities that could be obtained through some possible technology will be obtained (Bostrom). ii) Clarke's 3rd Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. iii) Orgel's law: Evolution is [still] cleverer than you are. iv) Nietzsche's Law: Man is a bridge between animal and something else.

http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf
VII. God is Dead Religious Humanism renders Deistic Religions obsolete The Humanist Manifestos and the birth of Humanism within the context of man's new and larger understanding of the universe will result in the decay of supernatural or traditional deistic creeds and beliefs. Religion consists of those actions, purposes, and experiences which are humanly significant. Nothing human is alien to the religious. It includes labor, art, science, philosophy, love, friendship, recreation all that is in its degree expressive of intelligently satisfying human living. "The distinction between the sacred and the secular can no longer be maintained. Humanism will: (a) affirm life rather than deny it; (b) seek to elicit the possibilities of life, not flee from them; and (c) endeavor to establish the conditions of a satisfactory life for all, and the complete realization of human personality to be the end of man's life and seeks its development and fulfillment in the here and now." [ The Humanist Manifesto, 1 and 2]

http://www.americanhumanist.org/humanism/Humanist_Manifesto_I
VIII. The Internet and Net Neutrality The internet is a system of interconnected computer networks, used by nearly 1/3rd of Earth's population, allowing instant communication. It is a network of networks, not unlike the human brain, that consists of millions of private, public, academic, business, and government networks, of local to global scope. The free and neutral nature of the Internet has rendered it a cyber frontier, a wild west, with no centralized governance. However, in a span of merely 20 years it has also become the greatest source of widespread literacy and auto didactism(self-teaching). The entire collective of man's knowledge is on the inter-net-work, and for free, altering the traditional social inheritance of knowledge. Imagine; a radical idea by an unknown, unfamous individual. Whether good, or bad, the internet gives voice, manifestation of idea, liberation of the individual. IX. "Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral." Kranzberg's Law: A technology isnt inherently good or bad, but it will have an impact, which is why its not neutral (Tenner). Furthermore, Pursell said, "As the material manifestations of social relations, tools are concrete commitments to certain ways of doing things, and therefore certain ways of dividing power. It is a mistake to think that, like black and white marbles, the "good" and "bad" effects of technology can be sorted out and dealt with. Ultimately, technology has unforeseen consequences. We see the first emergence of long term human institutions and globally organized government which aim at long term strategic foresight, i.e. The Singularity University, The Future of Humanity Institute, the United Nations, and the Long Now Clock. X. The potential of bio and neuro feedback Man knows very little about the autonomic functions of his body. The potential for bio and neuro feedback to grant conscious and permanent control of the heart rate, organs, pain perception, and brainwaves is a technological question of when, not if, and with unforeseeable impact. A

catalyst for Transhumanism, the capacity to link up by computer the physiological status of body and brain will grant a new dimension to internet networks. Biofeedback systems have been known in India and some other countries for millenia. Ancient Hindu practices like Yoga and Pranayama (Breathing techniques, Western Science of Breath,) are essentially biofeedback methods. Many yogis and sadhus have been known to exercise control over their physiological processes. One day, there could be biofeedback machines in Gym class. You would be trained to deal with and control your body, your physiological processes from a youth, with the efficiency of the most self-disciplined of Yogis. XI. The concept of impossibility is relative Traditional ideas of impossible physics or impossible technology, given simply another hundred years of progress, are consistently proven untrue. As Micho Kaku revealed, the impossible is relative. There are a)"technologies that are impossible today, but that do not violate the known laws of physics" , b)technologies that sit at the very edge of our understanding of the physical world," and c)technologies that violate the known laws of physics." Clarke's 1st Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_of_the_Impossible
XII. Science is inclined to accelerating change Science, not unlike technology, swallows the theories and models that pre-existed, always improving upon with greater efficiency our body of knowledge and the nature of our knowledge. Science exists to perpetually disprove itself, and thereby improves itself. Technological Revolutions and Scientific Paradigm Shifts are similar, moving forwards at an accelerating rate, the time for each subsequent shift, shortened. Kuhnsian paradigm shifts are a distinct exemplar: Ptolemaic cosmology to Copernican, Aristotlean mechanics, Euclidean Geometry, Galilean Cosmology, Newtonian Physics, and now Einstein's Relativism. Like building blocks, science's self modifying, self evolving, and self referential nature could yield a singularity like event, a theory of everything. The question that remains is, What is the successor to science? The answer may be, Thalience.

http://www.kschroeder.com/my-books/ventus/thalience
XIII. Aliens exist The Drake equation and the sheer magnitude of the universe demonstrates a large spectrum of xenobiological life a distinct probability. The Great Silence, the Drake Equation, and subsequently, the Fermi Paradox reveal that civilizations are not only separated by distance, but stranded in time. First Contact predicatively results in a negative outcome in between two different cultures, a result of the outside context problem or black swan theory. This is a problem that is "outside the context" as it is generally not considered until it occurs, and the capacity to actually conceive of or consider the OCP in the first place may not be possible or very limited (i.e., the majority of the group's population may not have the knowledge or ability to realize that the OCP can arise, or assume it is extremely unlikely). An example of OCP is an event in which a civilization does not consider the possibility that a much more technologically advanced society can exist, and then encounters one. i) If aliens exist, a Universal Declaration of the Rights of Sentience[self-awareness] is imperative, as First Contact and OCP are inseparable. -Rules-of-engagement for alien life ii)The possible, probable, and preferable answers to the Fermi Paradox: a] They are here unobserved b] They were here and they left material evidence: -UFO's, alien artifacts, ancient astronauts. Problem: evidence for aliens is non-existent, unsubstantiated. -Zoo scenario: The ET are here and we are cut off from all contact, there is a treaty preventing contact with young civilizations, there is a rules-of-engagement for alien life. c]They are us, Panspermia, Exogenesis

-Humans are the descendants of previous civilizations, as life on earth was catalyzed by nonterrestrial meteors that contained the proteins and building blocks for life. d] They didn't have enough time to reach us -The speed of light slows communications and makes space travel too long. -Extraterrestrials messages may not have reached us yet. e] They are sending signals, but we do not know how to listen. f] Myrhaf's solution: the time the tools are available, the will wont be there- generation ships are too expensive economically g] Outside Context Problem: Civilizations that are vastly separated in development do not get along -Zoo Scenario: ET exists and we are cut off from all contact, there is a treaty preventing contact with young civilizations, there is a rules-of-engagement for alien life.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
XIV. A Space Elevator [Geosynchronous Orbital Tether], Lunar Base, Launch Loop, is an unavoidable temporal scenario for the consistent access to space. The current global socio-economics and the emergence of the first global trading blocks (EU, NAFTA) makes the Geosynchronous Orbital Tether, StarTram, or Launch Loop the only practical medium for consistent off planet actions, assuming the continuous reliance upon chemical rockets. If the price to put an astronaut in space can exceed a billion dollars, a space elevator or permanent lunar base is unavoidable for consistent access to space. The construction of a permanent international Lunar base would be the stepping stone that catalyzes further off-planet interaction, that coincidentally prevents the potential danger of confinement to a single planet. The superlative supranational species-wide priority is not necessarily limited to these future potentialities, but only the extent of our imaginations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch
XV. The future of civilization in the Kardashev Scale Classification of future civilization by energy, as in the theoretical Kardashev Scale yields three types of Civilizations. Our civilization has yet to be classified on a cosmic scale, still entrenched in the death throes of fossil fuels. This transition, from the cradle to space, is said to be the most sensitive moment in a species history. The period in which civilization transforms from reactive, to sustainable, into intentional. From accident to purposeful. Type 0: fossil fuels, territorial conflicts, deities -English is rapidly emerging as the most likely candidate for a planetary language, the Internet is an emerging Type I telephone system, and the EU, NAFTA, etc. are the seeds of a planetary economy. Type i: a civilization able to harness all of the power available on its planet, approximately 10^17W. Earth specifically has an available power of 1.7410^17W -control of weather, earthquakes, volcanoes, cities in the sky and on the ocean, antimatter Type ii: a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from its home star, approximately 410^26W. The Sun outputs approximately 3.8610^26W. -terraforming, megascale engineering, Type iii: a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a whole galaxy, approximately 410^37?W. The actual value of this figure is extremely variable, since galaxies vary widely in size; the stated figure is the approximate power output of the Milky Way. -energy from supermassive blackholes, transcendance of matter A group of modern scholars, called the Global Scenarios Group, indicate that civilization is currently at a turning point, entering a type one Planetary Phase of Civilization in which different values regarding the environment, human well being, and global justice could lead to The Great Transition, the emergence of a global citizens movement to advocate for new values to underpin global society. (Michio Kaku)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale
XVI. The future of the Earth will become uninhabitable

Natural phenomena such as changing tectonic plates and warming/cooling cycles will ultimately render the Earth uninhabitable. Within 500,000 years, scientists predict a meteor or satellite at least 1km in size will have impacted the Earth. In 1 million years, the star Betelgeuse explodes, expected to be visible in daylight. The earth's habitability is a prediction not of if, but of when it will disappear. Innovation is the bastard child of necessity. Shall we wait for it to become a necessity to save ourselves? It is humorous, but the Dinosaurs did not kill themselves. Imagine humans now, with the definite capability to accidentally and purposefully extinguish his specieswhen colonizing the stars would coincidentally prevent the potential for extinction. Man and any advanced enough civilization, is morally obligated to become space-faring.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risks_to_civilization,_humans,_and_planet_Earth
XVII. Space Colonization is a biological imperative Man as a species can have one of two inevitable outcomes; extinction and the far less likely, immortality. The long term survival of the human race is at risk as long as it is confined to a single planet. Inevitably, disasters such as an asteroid collision, global pandemic, nuclear war, supernovae, runaway global warming, or similar Doomsday event could wipe us all out. Simply, the potential of a doomsday event is complete extinction. Space travel is not solely about scientific exploration. The colonization of space could fundamentally guarantee the immortality of the human species.The population of the Earth will eclipse the planet's carrying capacity shortly. A Malthusian catastrophe, with modern understanding, is a question of when, not if. Thus, technologically advanced civilizations are often obliged to become space-faring. Organization without the capacity of light speed or near light speed communication is untenable. The establishment of a ministry of colonization and multi planet independent colonies is imperative. The medium of space travel, negating faster than light speeds, make a) Generation ships, b) sleeper ships, and c) Embryo Carrying Interstellar Ships (EIS), a realistic possibility.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SECSxUbXTA
XVIII. The Neuroscience of History and Futurology Chronesthesia: Mental time-travel, or mental construction of future and past events or scenarios. A crucial ability of human higher-faculty cognitive function, allowing for conscious awareness of the past, present, and future. Specious Present: The time duration wherein one's perceptions are considered to be in the present. Essentially, when humans refer to the present moment, it is a fallacious statement- the present moment is a duration of time and the present, if it exists at all, is infinitesimal. For example: 1. What an observer sees, the observer sees as present. 2. The observer sees motion. 3. Motion occurs over an interval. Sub Specie Aeternitatis: From the Perspective of the Eternal, translated from Latin, as Philosopher Baruch Spinoza originally conceived of it. Simply, from all temporal points of view, or envisioning something under the aspect of eternity. As Nagel said, Yet humans have the special capacity to step back and survey themselves, and the lives to which they are committed... Without developing the illusion that they are able to escape from their highly specific and idiosyncratic position, they can view it sub specie aeternitatis. ----------------------------------------What is the opposite of History? -Anonymous SO STAND the theses of the science of the study of the future. While the future remains unpredictable by nature, a long term strategy for humanity, in space, emerges. For the first time, we extend our lives beyond ourselves, knowing what really matters is what we choose to leave behind us.

Theories in the public domain contributed by: Ossip K. Fleictheim Michio Kaku L. Niven Carl Sagan Arthur C. Clarke Neil deGrasse Tyson Ray Kurzweil F.T. Marinetti M. Kranzberg Vernor Vinge O.S. Card Nostradamus L. Muehlhauser A. Salamon B. Sterling I. Moravec E. Yudkowsky G. Moore D. Hofstadter J. Hawkins S. Hawking R. Dawkins J. Casti T.J. Rogers E. Hahn G. Bell S. Pinker E. Dyson F. Dyson whochmuth@pugetsound.edu