Currencies Daily Report

Monday| October 1, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| October 1, 2012

Highlights
US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 78.3 levels. German Retail Sales increased by 0.3 percent in August. Euro CPI Flash Estimate increased by 2.7 percent in September. Asian markets are trading on a weak note taking cues from unfavorable data from Japanese economy indicating that the economies are slowing down. Weak exports from the nation are indicating a weak demand from the consuming nations. US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remained unchanged at 0.1 percent in August. Personal Spending increased by 0.5 percent in last month from previous rise of 0.4 percent in July. Personal Income also remained unchanged at 0.1 percent in last month. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 3.3 points to 49.7-mark in September as compared to earlier level of 53 in August. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment declined by 0.9 points to 78.3-level in current month as against a rise of 79.2-mark in August. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also fell by 3.3 percent in September with respect to earlier rise of 3.5 percent in August. Chinas Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.6 points to 49.8-mark in September from previous rise of 49.2-level in August.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Oct'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield 5703.3 18762.7 13437.13 1440.7 15095.8 1996.2 59175.9 8870.2 92.19 1771.10 3451.70 8218.00 472.79 99.97 Prev. day 1.0 1.0 -0.4 -0.4 -2.3 0.4 -1.8 -0.9 0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.1

as on September 28, 2012 WoW 0.2 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 -5.6 -0.3 -3.5 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.1 -0.9 -2.2 0.1 MoM 8.5 7.6 2.6 2.2 0.0 4.8 3.7 0.3 -4.4 5.1 10.0 8.2 -0.2 0.6 YoY 13.7 12.4 20.5 25.2 0.3 12.8 10.8 1.9 12.2 9.6 13.3 14.6 -9.6 4.3

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained 0.8 percent week on week on the back of risk aversion amongst market participants triggered by reports that Spain might require more capital to prevent the slowdown in the nation. This led to rise in the demand for the low yielding currency that is DX. US equities also ended on a weak note taking cues from weak global market sentiments and unfavorable data from the nation. The index touched a weekly low of 79.11 and closed at 80.03 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.03 52.84 53.07 53.07 Prev. day 0.5 0.2 -0.37 -0.40

as on September 28, 2012 WoW 0.8 1.0 -0.78 -0.79 MoM -1.5 4.8 -4.69 -4.71 YoY 1.8 -7.3 8.40 8.50

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 1 percent in the last week on the back of Statement from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that necessary steps will be taken to reduce the deficit along with attractions for foreign investors. Additionally, selling of dollars from the exporters and foreign banks coupled with increase in FII inflows also supported an upside in the currency. However, month end dollar demand from the oil importers capped sharp upside in the currency along with weak global market sentiments. It touched a high of 52.49 during the week and closed at 52.84 on Friday. For the current month FII inflows totalled at Rs. 19,261.50 crores till 28th September 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 82,331.0 crores till 28th September 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Rupee to depreciate today taking cues from weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Oct12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for October 1, 2012 Support 52.8/52.55 Resistance 53.2/53.4

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| October 1, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro declined 0.9 percent week on week due to rising concerns of the Euro zone regions along with Spain debt issues which created bearish market sentiments. According to the bank of Spain and Economic Ministry, the banking system needs 59.3 billion euros of additional capital to cover losses from investments in real estate. The currency touched a weekly low of 1.2928 and closed at 1.2858 on Friday. German Retail Sales increased by 0.3 percent in August as against a decline of 1 percent in July. French Consumer Spending remained unchanged at 0.4 percent in the last month. French Consumer Spending declined by 0.8 percent in last month from previous rise of 0.4 percent a month ago. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate increased by 2.7 percent in September as compared to earlier rise of 2.6 percent in last month. Outlook In today session we expect Euro to remain under downside pressure on the back of weak global market sentiments along with rising debt concerns of the Euro zone region. Additionally strength in the DX along with expectation of unfavorable data from the economy is likely to exert downside pressure on the currency.

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2858 67.92 68.60 68.6 Prev. day -0.4 0.6 0.19 0.21

as on September 28, 2012 WoW -0.9 1.9 -1.15 -1.07 MoM 2.3 2.7 -1.82 -1.81 YoY -5.4 -2.0 2.70 2.73

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Oct12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for October 1, 2012 Support 68.25/68 Resistance 68.8/68.95 $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)

GBP (% change)
Last 1.6164 85.41 85.90 Prev. day -0.4 0.6 -0.39

as on September 28, 2012

WoW -0.4 1.4 -1.22

MoM 1.9 3.0 -2.35

YoY 3.4 -11.6 12.05

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Pound depreciated by 0.4 percent taking cues from weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of favorable economic data from the country. The currency touched a low of 1.6112 in the last week and closed at 1.6164 in the last trading session of the week. UKs GfK Consumer Confidence was at -28-mark in September from earlier level of -29 in August. Index of Services gained by 0.1 percent in July as compared to decline of 0.1 percent a month ago. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect Pound to depreciate taking cues from weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Unfavorable economic data from the region is also expected to pressurize the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Oct 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for October 1, 2012 Support 85.55/85.25 Resistance 86.2/86.45

85.94

-0.36

-1.16

-2.35

12.15

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| October 1, 2012

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week on the back of favorable economic data from the country. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global markets led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched a high of 77.41 during the week and closed at 77.90 on Friday. For the third quarter of 2012 Japans Tankan Manufacturing Index stood at -3-mark as compared to a decline of 1-level in Q2 of 2012. However, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index remained unchanged at 8-mark in Q3 of 2012. Outlook In todays session we expect Yen to appreciate on the back of rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants and thereby increase in the demand for the low yielding currency. However, weak economic data from the nation is expected to cushion sharp appreciation in the currency today. Technical Outlook valid for October 1, 2012
Trend JPY/INR Oct 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways Support 68/67.65 Resistance 68.50/68.75
Source: Telequote

as on September 28, 2012 Last 77.9 0.678 68.30 68.32 Prev day 0.4 0.5 -0.38 -0.39 WoW -0.3 0.6 -0.01 0.00 MoM -0.6 4.3 -3.50 -3.47 YoY 1.4 -6.4 6.62 6.70

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on October 1, 2012

Indicator Tankan Manufacturing Index Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Bank Holiday Manufacturing PMI Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI Net Lending to Individuals m/m Unemployment Rate ISM Manufacturing PMI Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Country Japan Japan China China Euro Euro UK UK Euro US US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am All Day 6:30am 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 7:30pm 10:00pm Actual -3 -8 49.8 Forecast -4 7 50.0 44.2 49.5 0.7B 11.4% 50.0 Previous -1 8 49.2 44.0 43.6 49.5 0.9B 11.3% 49.6 Impact Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Medium Medium High High

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