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COMPARATIVE NUMBER OF SEATS UNDER FIRST PAST THE POST AND REFORMED
70 60 50 40 30 32 22 18 38 60 60 54
65 57 57 48 42 41 48 41
SEATS
30 20 10 3 0
19
6 0 2 0 1 1 1 1
Labour PartyPMSD
MMP & HP
MMSM
MMM MSM
MMM MSM
MSM-MMMMTD
MSM MMR
1991
2000
2005
The need to take the reforms of the electoral system seriously in Mauritius The debate on Electoral Reforms and the need for an equitable representation of the political parties in the parliament has been long going. Many propositions have been made by the MMM but each time the Prime Minister has used an excuse to reject the suggestions made by the MMM. It is a matter of fact that together with doing the tasks of the opposition, the MMM has brought forward many propositions which ought to be brought forward by the legitimate Government of Mauritius. Unfortunately there is no willingness on behalf of the honorable Dr Navinchandra Ramgoolam, Prime Minister of Mauritius, to enhance the democratic process in the Republic of Mauritius. It has been more than 40 years that our country has been independent and we are still using the same electoral system which has been in place since 1968 and up to now we are still classifying our citizen in terms of ethnic communities. If there is a will on behalf of the Prime Minister, he should by himself find the numerous alternatives for the electoral reforms which at the end of the day, will bring the same results. I will try through this paper to depict one of the ways and means of bringing the reforms in the electoral system without too much disrupting the conduct of the elections and results obtained in Mauritius. For this exercise, I have limited myself to the 20 constituencies in Mauritius. However the same principle will apply should we decide to include the constituency of Rodrigues. We have 20 constituencies whereby 3 candidates are elected in each constituency through the process of First Past The Post (FPTP). We have had up to date 8 additional candidates elected on the basis of the Best Loser System (BLS). There has been many debates and the MMM is a fervent proponent to maintain the Best Loser System in the proposed Reform of the Electoral System. The Labour Party has taken a different view and want at all means to eliminate the process of the BLS. Through this paper, I will try to satisfy both parties, whereby the BLS is maintained or eliminated dependent on the way that one sees it. It is crystal clear that I am a very strong opponent of communal classification of our people whether be it candidates or not and that I will never prone maintaining BLS in terms of communal classification.
Dave Kissoondoyal
Page 1
10/6/2012
MMMUNMMSD
2010
FSN
I have started the analysis of the results as from the elections of 1991 and continued to 1995 as I wanted to analyze the results of at least one occurrence where we have had a 60-0 result. 1991 Elections For the elections of 1991, the results have been as follows:
1991 Elections - Party's votes percentage
MSM-MMM-MTD Votes %
The MMM-MSM-MTD alliance got 55.40 percent of the votes in its favour whereas the Labour Party-PMSD alliance scored 39.30 % of the votes. However on the percentage of seats at the Legislative Assembly the MMM-MSM-MTD alliance obtained 95 % and the LP-PMSD only 5 %. This disproportionate in the allocation of seats is due to the system of First Past the Post (FPTP).
Dave Kissoondoyal
Page 2
10/6/2012
There is a consensus to remove the disparity between the percentage of votes and the percentage of seats. Henceforth, a dose of proportional representation has been recommended by the various commissions put in place by the different governments in place. It has been recommended to keep the existing 60 candidates elected through the system of First Past The Post and on top of add a number of elected candidates through the system of Proportional Representation. On an earlier document, I have already simulated the results of the past elections in Mauritius using the proportional representation on top of the system of FPTP. The allocation of each additional seat under the Proportional Representation is clearly defined on my previous document at http://www.scribd.com/doc/102078630/Best-Loser-System-and-Proportional-Representation After discussions among all the political parties in Mauritius, consensus has been reached as follows: Parties which reach the threshold of 7.5 % are going to be considered for the Proportional Representation. We will apply this threshold for PR representation We are now going to apply the above in simulation to the past elections as from 1991 to 2010. Let us take the example of the elections of 1991 when we had the following results. The MMM-MSM-MTD alliance obtained 944,521 votes, representing 55.40 % and secured 57 seats in the parliament The Labour Party PMSD alliance obtained 670,631 votes, representing 39.30 percent and secured only 3 seats in the parliament We would apply the formula from the recommendations of the Sachs Commission.
Dave Kissoondoyal
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10/6/2012
cast
We are discarding from consideration all parties who have polled less than 7.5% of the total votes
We divide the total number of votes polled by each party having polled 7.5% or more of the votes [a] by the aggregate of one (1) and the number of candidates of that party who have been returned at the level of the 21 constituencies (1+ b); The formula to be applied will therefore be [ a / (1+b)]. In other words, where a party has, say, 60 returned candidates at constituency level, the number of votes polled by that party in respect of its party list is divided by 61. The result is the PR figure. The PR Figure of each party indicates whether that party is underrepresented. Where a party has a high PR figure, this means that it is underrepresented and, as a result, the first additional seat shall be allocated to the party with the highest PR figure; Since the allocation of that first additional seat may have upset the representation of parties, another PR figure needs to be recalculated by dividing the total number of votes polled by that party (a) by the aggregate of one (1) and the number of seats held by that party as a result of the previous exercise. This process shall carry on until all 20 additional seats have been allocated. The following tables indicate how the compensatory system would have worked Therefore after the exercise of the additional seat allocation through PR, the setup post 1991 General Elections would have been as follows: MMM-MSM-MTD = 57 Seats Labour Party - PMSD = 23 Seats (20 Seats from Party-List) Total = 80 seats (Not considering the seats of Rodrigues)
The results of 60 seats under the FPTP system and then Proportional Representation are given in the table below. Please note that a deviation percentage is calculated after each seat added under PR system. The deviation percentage is the difference between the seat allocated percentage and the votes obtained percentage.
Dave Kissoondoyal
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10/6/2012
MSM MMM MTD Votes 944,521 65.17 76.65 PR Value 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84 16,284.84
1991 ELECTIONS 60 FPTP + PR Labour Labour PartyMSM MMM Party-PMSD PMSD MTD Seats Votes Seats 57 670,631 3 19.85 23.35 PR Value 167,657.75 134,126.20 111,771.83 95,804.43 83,828.88 74,514.56 67,063.10 60,966.45 55,885.92 51,587.00 47,902.21 44,708.73 41,914.44 39,448.88 37,257.28 35,296.37 33,531.55 31,934.81 30,483.23 29,157.87
57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
93.44 91.94 90.48 89.06 87.69 86.36 85.07 83.82 82.61 81.43 80.28 79.17 78.08 77.03 76.00 75.00 74.03 73.08 72.15 71.25
6.56 8.06 9.52 10.94 12.31 13.64 14.93 16.18 17.39 18.57 19.72 20.83 21.92 22.97 24.00 25.00 25.97 26.92 27.85 28.75
Dave Kissoondoyal
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10/6/2012
Labour PartyLabour PartyMSM-MMMMSDP MSM MMM MSDP Seats Deviation Seats MTD Votes % Votes% MTD Seats % % % 60 55.40 39.30 95.00 5.00 73.90 61 55.40 39.30 93.44 6.56 70.79 62 55.40 39.30 91.94 8.06 67.77 63 55.40 39.30 90.48 9.52 64.85 64 55.40 39.30 89.06 10.94 62.03 65 55.40 39.30 87.69 12.31 59.28 66 55.40 39.30 86.36 13.64 56.63 67 55.40 39.30 85.07 14.93 54.05 68 55.40 39.30 83.82 16.18 51.55 69 55.40 39.30 82.61 17.39 49.12 70 55.40 39.30 81.43 18.57 46.76 71 55.40 39.30 80.28 19.72 44.46 72 55.40 39.30 79.17 20.83 42.23 73 55.40 39.30 78.08 21.92 40.06 74 55.40 39.30 77.03 22.97 37.95 75 55.40 39.30 76.00 24.00 35.90 76 55.40 39.30 75.00 25.00 33.90 77 55.40 39.30 74.03 25.97 31.95 78 55.40 39.30 73.08 26.92 30.05 79 55.40 39.30 72.15 27.85 28.20 80 55.40 39.30 71.25 28.75 26.40 It is to be noted that for the elections of 1991, for a scenario of 60 Seats under FPTP and then PR representation, a PR number of 20 gives the least deviation.
60 40 20 0 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 Number of Seats MSM-MMM-MTD Votes % MSM MMM MTD Seats % Labour Party-MSDP Votes% Labour Party-MSDP Seats %
Dave Kissoondoyal
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10/6/2012
The Best Loser System So far we have seen that 4 seats under the Best Loser System have been used to bring the communal balance in the parliament. All these 4 seats have been allocated from the number of candidates who stood at elections and who were not elected. If we increase the number of BEST LOSERS from 8 to 20, the probability that the 4 seats are represented on communal considerations is higher. However since there will be no classification of candidates under communities, it will be the responsibility of the parties to ensure that they have as candidates members of all communities of Mauritius. If any party does not include any community in its candidates list it is taking the risk of not being elected for Government. Henceforth, 60 Seats under FPTP are allocated and 20 seats under Best Loser System. We will not term the seats of all candidates who came as RUNNER UP (RU), i.e. ranked 4th position in the electoral results under the Best Loser System to distinguish the difference between the current Best Loser System and the proposed one, which is the taking de facto all seats of the 4th position. We would henceforth term it RU or LOSERS seat.
Only by adding 20 seats by taking one from each constituency, ie the 4th rank in each constituency, the seat percentage is adjusted as follows: 25 % for the Labour Party PMSD alliance and 75 % for the MMM-MSMMSD alliance. The Number of seats of the Labour Party PMSD alliance is increased from 3 to 20 and that of the MMM-MSM-MSD alliance from 57 to 60. The deviation is reduced from 73.90 % to 33.90 %. So far we have just increased then number of seats for the best losers whereby we have tacked the problem of the communities representativity and narrow the gap for the disparity on seats allocation in the parliament. The electoral reforms will be incomplete without adding a dose of proportional representation. We will apply the same principle as above for PR representation, but this time the number of initial elected candidates has been increased from 60 to 80 ( 60 elected through First Past The Post and one from each (runner-up) of the 20 constituencies. We would apply the same formula as mentioned above. cast We are discarding from consideration all parties who have polled less than 7.5% of the total votes
Dave Kissoondoyal
Page 7
10/6/2012
We divide the total number of votes polled by each party having polled 7.5% or more of the votes [a] by the aggregate of one (1) and the number of candidates of that party who have been returned at the level of the 21 constituencies (1+ b); The formula to be applied will therefore be [ a / (1+b)]. In other words, where a party has, say, 60 returned candidates at constituency level, the number of votes polled by that party in respect of its party list is divided by 61. The result is the PR figure. The PR Figure of each party indicates whether that party is underrepresented. Where a party has a high PR figure, this means that it is underrepresented and, as a result, the first additional seat shall be allocated to the party with the highest PR figure; Since the allocation of that first additional seat may have upset the representation of parties, another PR figure needs to be recalculated by dividing the total number of votes polled by that party (a) by the aggregate of one (1) and the number of seats held by that party as a result of the previous exercise. This process shall carry on until all 20 additional seats have been allocated. The following tables indicate how the compensatory system would have worked for Therefore after the exercise of the additional seat allocation through PR on the 80 seats , the setup post 1991 General Elections would have been as follows: MMM-MSM-MTD = 60 Seats (57 FPTP + 3 RU) Labour Party - PMSD = 30 Seats (3 FPTP + 17 RU + 10 PR ) Total = 90 seats (Not considering the seats of Rodrigues)
Dave Kissoondoyal
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10/6/2012
1991 ELECTIONS 60 FPTP + 20 LOSERS + PR Labour MSM Labour PartyMMM MTD MSM MMM Party-PMSD PMSD Votes MTD Seats Votes Seats 944,521 57 670,631 3 944,521 60 670,631 20 65.17 19.85 76.65 23.35 PR Value PR Value 15,483.95 60 31,934.81 21 15,483.95 60 30,483.23 22 15,483.95 60 29,157.87 23 15,483.95 60 27,942.96 24 15,483.95 60 26,825.24 25 15,483.95 60 25,793.50 26 15,483.95 60 24,838.19 27 15,483.95 60 23,951.11 28 15,483.95 60 23,125.21 29 15,483.95 60 22,354.37 30
74.07 73.17 72.29 71.43 70.59 69.77 68.97 68.18 67.42 66.67
25.93 26.83 27.71 28.57 29.41 30.23 31.03 31.82 32.58 33.33
We have the percentage of seats allocation per party/alliance as follows: MSM-MMMMTD Votes % 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 55.40 Labour PartyPMSD Votes% 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 39.30 MSM MMM MTD Seats % 95.00 75.00 74.07 73.17 72.29 71.43 70.59 69.77 68.97 68.18 67.42 66.67 Labour PartyPMSD Seats % 5.00 25.00 25.93 26.83 27.71 28.57 29.41 30.23 31.03 31.82 32.58 33.33 Deviation % 73.90 33.90 32.05 30.24 28.48 26.76 25.08 23.43 21.83 20.26 18.73 17.23
Seats 60 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90
Therefore the number of seats in simulation to the elections of 1991 would have been 60 sets under FPTP, 20 Seats under Best Loser + either 10 under the PR representativity.
Dave Kissoondoyal
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10/6/2012
Percentage
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
60
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Number of Seats MSM-MMM-MTD Votes % MSM MMM MTD Seats % Labour Party-PMSD Votes% Labour Party-PMSD Seats %
Dave Kissoondoyal
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10/6/2012
100
The whole exercise can be summarized in the table below: 1991 ELECTIONS in % Seats 60 FPTP 60 FPTP + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 20 PR MSMMMM-MTD Votes % 55.40 55.40 55.40 Labour PartyPMSD Votes% 39.30 39.30 39.30 MSM MMM MTD Seats % 95.00 81.43 71.25 Labour Party-PMSD Seats % 5.00 18.57 28.75 Deviation 73.90 46.76 26.40
The same exercise will be done for the other elections as well, i.e 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010.
Dave Kissoondoyal
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10/6/2012
1995 Elections In 1995, the Labour Party-MMM alliance received 1,084,236 votes representing 65.17 percent of votes whereas the MSM-RMM alliance received 330219 votes representing 19.85 percent of total votes. In terms of seats, the Labour Party-MMM alliance received 60 seats representing 100 percent of seats whereas the MSM-MMR alliance received NO seat representing 0 percent of total seats.
MSM-MMR Votes %
100%
Dave Kissoondoyal
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In a configuration of a total of 80 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post and 20 seats allocated under PR, the situation would be as follows: Labour Party-MMM : 62 Seats (60 FPTP + 2 PR), 77.50 % MSM-MMR: 18 Seats ( 0 FPTP + 18 PR), 22.50 % 1995 ELECTIONS Labour PartyMMM Labour PartyVotes MMM Seats 1084236 60 65.17 76.65 PR Value 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,487.68
MSMMMR Votes 330219 19.85 23.35 PR Value 330,219.00 165,109.50 110,073.00 82,554.75 66,043.80 55,036.50 47,174.14 41,277.38 36,691.00 33,021.90 30,019.91 27,518.25 25,401.46 23,587.07 22,014.60 20,638.69 19,424.65 18,345.50 17,379.95 17,379.95
MSMMMR Seats 0
60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 61 62
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 18
98.36 96.77 95.24 93.75 92.31 90.91 89.55 88.24 86.96 85.71 84.51 83.33 82.19 81.08 80.00 78.95 77.92 76.92 77.22 77.50
1.64 3.23 4.76 6.25 7.69 9.09 10.45 11.76 13.04 14.29 15.49 16.67 17.81 18.92 20.00 21.05 22.08 23.08 22.78 22.50
Dave Kissoondoyal
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MSM-MMR Seats
In 1995, in a configuration of a total of 80 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post and 20 seats allocated under the new Loser System, the situation would be as follows: Labour Party-MMM: 60 Seats (60 FPTP + 0 RU), 75.00 % MSM-MMR: 14 Seats (0 FPTP + 14 RU), 17.50 % Parti Gaetan Duval: 3 Seat (0 FPTP + 1 RU), 3.75 % MMP & HP: 2 Seat (0 FPTP + 2 RU), 2.5 % MMSM: 1 Seat (0 FPTP + 1 RU), 1.25 %
Dave Kissoondoyal
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17.5
75
1995 Elections with 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + Proportional Representation In 1995, in a configuration of a total of 90 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post, 20 seats allocated under the new Loser System and 10 seats under PR , the situation would be as follows: Labour Party-MMM: 65 Seats (60 FPTP + 0 RU + 5 PR ), 72.22 % MSM-MMR: 19 Seats (0 FPTP + 14 RU + 5 PR), 21.11 % Parti Gaetan Duval: 3 Seat (0 FPTP + 1 RU + 0 PR ), 3.33 % MMP & HP: 2 Seat (0 FPTP + 2 RU + 0 PR), 2.22 % MMSM: 1 Seat (0 FPTP + 1 RU), 1.11 %
Dave Kissoondoyal
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Labour PartyMMM Votes 1084236 1084236 PR Value 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,774.36 17,487.68 17,210.10 17,210.10 16,941.19 16,680.55
MSMMMR Votes 330219 330219 PR Value 22,014.60 20,638.69 19,424.65 18,345.50 17,379.95 17,379.95 17,379.95 16,510.95 16,510.95 16,510.95
MSMMMR Seats 0 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 19 19 19 19
Labour PartyMMM Seats % 100.00 75.00 74.07 73.17 72.29 71.43 71.76 72.09 71.26 71.59 71.91 72.22
Parti MSM- Gaetan MMR Duval 3 Seats % Seats % 0 0 17.50 3.75 18.52 19.51 20.48 21.43 21.18 20.93 21.84 21.59 21.35 21.11 3.70 3.66 3.61 3.57 3.53 3.49 3.45 3.41 3.37 3.33
MMP & HP 2 Seats MMSM 1 % Seat % 0 0 2.50 1.25 2.47 2.44 2.41 2.38 2.35 2.33 2.30 2.27 2.25 2.22 1.23 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.11
72.22
Dave Kissoondoyal
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Labour 1995 PartyElections MMM Seats Votes % 60 65.17 80 65.17 81 65.17 82 65.17 83 65.17 84 65.17 85 65.17 86 65.17 87 65.17 88 65.17 89 65.17 90 65.17 91 65.17 92 65.17 93 65.17 94 65.17 95 65.17 96 65.17 97 65.17 98 65.17 99 65.17 100 65.17
MSMMMR Votes % 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85
Labour PartyMMM Seats % 100 75.00 74.07 73.17 72.29 71.43 71.76 72.09 71.26 71.59 71.91 72.22 71.43 71.74 72.04 72.34 71.58 71.88 72.16 72.45 72.73 72.00
MSMMMR Seats % 0 17.50 18.52 19.51 20.48 21.43 21.18 20.93 21.84 21.59 21.35 21.11 21.98 21.74 21.51 21.28 22.11 21.88 21.65 21.43 21.21 22.00
Parti Gaetan MMP & Duval HP MMSM Deviation Seats % Seats % Seats % % 0 0 0 54.68 3.75 2.50 1.25 12.18 3.70 2.47 1.23 10.24 3.66 2.44 1.22 8.34 3.61 2.41 1.20 6.49 3.57 2.38 1.19 4.68 3.53 2.35 1.18 5.27 3.49 2.33 1.16 5.84 3.45 2.30 1.15 4.11 3.41 2.27 1.14 4.68 3.37 2.25 1.12 5.24 3.33 2.22 1.11 5.79 3.30 2.20 1.10 4.13 3.26 2.17 1.09 4.68 3.23 2.15 1.08 5.22 3.19 2.13 1.06 5.74 3.16 2.11 1.05 4.15 3.13 2.08 1.04 4.68 3.09 2.06 1.03 5.20 3.06 2.04 1.02 5.70 3.03 2.02 1.01 6.20 3.00 2.00 1.00 4.68
Dave Kissoondoyal
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Pourcentage
80 60 40 20 0 60 FPTP
60 FPTP + 10 PR
60 FPTP + 20 PR Seats
60 FPTP + 20 Losers
60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 10 PR
60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 20 PR
1995 ELECTIONS in % Labour PartyMMM Votes % 65.17 65.17 65.17 MSMMMR Votes % 19.85 19.85 19.85 Labour PartyMMM Seats % 100.00 85.71 77.50 MSMMMR Seats % 0 14.29 22.50 Parti Gaetan Duval Seats % 0 0 0 MMP & HP Seats % 0 0 0
Seats 60 FPTP 60 FPTP + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 20 PR
MMSM Seats % 0 0 0
65.17
19.85
75.00
17.50
3.75
2.50
1.25
12.18
65.17
19.85
72.22
21.11
3.33
2.22
1.11
5.79
65.17
19.85
72.00
22.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
4.68
Dave Kissoondoyal
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2000 Elections In 2000, the MMM-MSM alliance received 951643 votes representing 51.70 percent of votes whereas the Labour Party-PMXD alliance received 673145 votes representing 36.57 percent of total votes. In terms of seats, the MMM-MSM alliance received 54 seats representing 90 percent of seats whereas the Labour Party-PMXD alliance received 6 seat representing 10 percent of total seats.
MSM-MMM Votes%
Votes%
10%
0%
90%
MSM-MMM Seats%
Seats%
Dave Kissoondoyal
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In 2000, in a configuration of a total of 80 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post and 20 seats under PR, the situation would be as follows: MMM-MSM: 54 Seats (54 FPTP + 0 PR), 67.50 % Labour Party-PMXD: 26 Seats (6 FPTP + 20 PR), 32.50 % MDN Raj Dayal: 0 Seats (0 FPTP + 0 PR), 0 % 2000 Elections MSMMMM Votes 951643 51.70 58.57 PR Value 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 17,302.60 MSMMMM Seats 54 Labour PartyPMXD Votes 673145 36.57 41.43 PR Value 96,163.57 84,143.13 74,793.89 67,314.50 61,195.00 56,095.42 51,780.38 48,081.79 44,876.33 42,071.56 39,596.76 37,396.94 35,428.68 33,657.25 32,054.52 30,597.50 29,267.17 28,047.71 26,925.80 25,890.19 Labour PartyPMXD Seats 6 MSMMMM Seats % 90.00 Labour PartyPMXD Seats% 10.00
54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
88.52 87.10 85.71 84.38 83.08 81.82 80.60 79.41 78.26 77.14 76.06 75.00 73.97 72.97 72.00 71.05 70.13 69.23 68.35 67.50
11.48 12.90 14.29 15.63 16.92 18.18 19.40 20.59 21.74 22.86 23.94 25.00 26.03 27.03 28.00 28.95 29.87 30.77 31.65 32.50
Dave Kissoondoyal
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MSM-MMM Seats%
Seats%
In the same elections, in a configuration of a total of 80 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post and 20 seats allocated under the new Loser System, the situation would have been as follows: MMM-MSM: 57 Seats (60 FPTP + 0 RU), 71.25 % Labour Party-PMXD: 22 Seats (0 FPTP + 19 RU), 27.50 % MDN Raj Dayal: 1 Seat (0 FPTP + 1 RU), 1.25 %
MSM-MMM Seats%
Seats%
Dave Kissoondoyal
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In 2000, in a configuration of a total of 90 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post, 20 seats allocated under the new Loser System and 10 seats under PR , the situation would be as follows: MMM-MSM: 57 Seats (60 FPTP + 0 RU + 0 PR), 63.33 % Labour Party-PMXD: 32 Seats (0 FPTP + 19 RU+ 10 PR), 35.56 % MDN Raj Dayal: 1 Seat (0 FPTP + 1 RU + 0 PR), 1.11 % 2000 Elections MSMMMM Votes 951643 951643 51.70 58.57 PR Value 16,407.64 16,407.64 16,407.64 16,407.64 16,407.64 16,407.64 16,407.64 16,407.64 16,407.64 16,407.64 MSMMMM Seats 54 57 Labour PartyPMXD Votes 673145 673145 36.57 41.43 PR Value 29,267.17 28,047.71 26,925.80 25,890.19 24,931.30 24,040.89 23,211.90 22,438.17 21,714.35 21,035.78 Labour PartyPMXD Seats 6 22 MSMMMM Seats % 90.00 71.25 Labour PartyPMXD Seats% 10.00 27.50
57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
70.37 69.51 68.67 67.86 67.06 66.28 65.52 64.77 64.04 63.33
28.40 29.27 30.12 30.95 31.76 32.56 33.33 34.09 34.83 35.56
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MSM-MMM Seats%
Seats%
Seats 60 FPTP 60 FPTP + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 20 PR
2000 ELECTIONS in % Labour Labour PartyMSMPartyPMXD MMM PMXD Votes% Seats% Seats% 36.57 90.00 10 36.57 36.57 77.14 67.50 22.86 32.50
51.70
36.57
71.25
27.50
1.25
28.62
51.70
36.57
63.33
35.56
1.11
12.65
51.70
36.57
58.00
41.00
1.00
1.87
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2005 ELECTIONS In 2005, the Labour-PMXD alliance received 948,766 votes representing 48.80 percent of total votes whereas the MMM-MSM PMSD alliance received 829,460 votes representing 42.60 percent of total votes. In terms of seats, the Labour-PMXD alliance received 38 seats representing 63.33 percent of seats whereas the MMM-MSM PMSD alliance received 22 seat representing 36.67 percent of total seats.
Labour-PMXD Votes
Votes
Labour-PMXD Seats %
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In 2005, in a configuration of a total of 80 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post and 20 seats under PR, the situation would be as follows: Labour Party-PMXD: 43 Seats (38 FPTP + 5 PR), 53.75 % MMM-MSM-PMSD: 37 Seats (22 FPTP + 15 PR), 46.25 %
2005 Elections LabourPMXD Votes 948,766 48.80 53.39 PR Value 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 24,327.33 23,719.15 23,140.63 23,140.63 22,589.67 22,589.67 22,064.33 22,064.33 LabourPMXD Seats 38 MMM MSM PMSD Votes 829,460 42.60 46.61 PR Value 36,063.48 34,560.83 33,178.40 31,902.31 30,720.74 29,623.57 28,602.07 27,648.67 26,756.77 25,920.63 25,135.15 24,395.88 23,698.86 23,698.86 23,698.86 23,040.56 23,040.56 22,417.84 22,417.84 21,827.89 MMM - MSM PMSD Seats 22 LabourPMXD Seats% 63.33 MMM MSM PMSD Seats% 36.67
38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 39 40 40 41 41 42 42 43
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 35 35 36 36 37 37
62.30 61.29 60.32 59.38 58.46 57.58 56.72 55.88 55.07 54.29 53.52 52.78 53.42 54.05 53.33 53.95 53.25 53.85 53.16 53.75
37.70 38.71 39.68 40.63 41.54 42.42 43.28 44.12 44.93 45.71 46.48 47.22 46.58 45.95 46.67 46.05 46.75 46.15 46.84 46.25
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Labour-PMXD Seats %
In the same elections, in a configuration of a total of 80 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post and 20 seats allocated under the new Loser System, the situation would have been as follows: Labour Party-PMXD: 45 Seats (38 FPTP + 7 RU), 56.25 % MMM-MSM-PMSD: 35 Seats (22 FPTP + 13 RU), 43.75 %
Labour-PMXD Seats %
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For a configuration of a total of 90 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post, 20 seats allocated under the new Loser System and 10 seats under PR , the situation would be as follows: Labour Party-PMXD: 48 Seats (38 FPTP + 7 RU + 3 PR), 53.33 % MMM-MSM-PMSD: 42 Seats (22 FPTP + 13 PR + 7 PR), 46.67 %
LabourPMXD Votes 948,766 948,766 48.80 53.39 PR Value 20,625.35 20,625.35 20,625.35 20,625.35 20,625.35 20,625.35 20,186.51 20,186.51 19,765.96 19,362.57
2005 Elections MMM LabourMSM PMXD PMSD Seats Votes 38 829,460 45 829,460 42.60 46.61 PR Value 23,040.56 22,417.84 21,827.89 21,268.21 20,736.50 20,230.73 20,230.73 19,749.05 19,749.05 19,749.05
45 45 45 45 45 46 46 47 48 48
36 37 38 39 40 40 41 41 41 42
55.56 54.88 54.22 53.57 52.94 53.49 52.87 53.41 53.93 53.33
44.44 45.12 45.78 46.43 47.06 46.51 47.13 46.59 46.07 46.67
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50 40 30 20 10 0 60 FPTP 60 FPTP + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 PR Seats Labour-PMXD Votes % Labour-PMXD Seats % MMM - MSM PMSD Votes % MMM - MSM PMSD Seats % 60 FPTP + 60 FPTP + 60 FPTP + 20 Losers 20 Losers + 20 Losers + 10 PR 20 PR
Seats 60 FPTP 60 FPTP + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 20 PR
2005 ELECTIONS in % MMM MSM LabourPMSD PMXD Votes % Seats % 42.60 63.33 42.60 42.60 54.29 53.75
48.80
42.60
56.25
43.75
6.30
48.80
42.60
53.33
46.67
0.47
48.80
42.60
53.00
47.00
-0.20
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2010 ELECTIONS In 2010, the Labour Party-MSM- PMSD alliance received 1,001,903 votes representing 49.69 percent of total votes whereas the MMM-UN-MMSD alliance received 847,095 votes representing 42.01 percent of total votes. In terms of seats, the Labour Party-MSM- PMSD alliance received 41 seats representing 68.33 percent of seats whereas the MSM-MMR alliance received 18 seats representing 30 percent of total seats. The FSN scored 51161 votes with a percentage of 2.54 of the total votes. In terms of seats, the FSN got one seat with a percentage of 1.67 out of total seats
MMM-UN-MMSD Votes %
FSN Votes %
MMM-UN-MMSD Seats %
FSN Seats %
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In 2010, for a configuration of a total of 80 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post and 20 seats allocated under PR, the situation would have been as follows: Labour Party-MSM-PMSD: 43 Seats (41 FPTP + 2 PR), 53.75 % MSM-MMR: 36 Seats (18 FPTP + 18 PR), 45.00 % FSN: 1 Seat (1 FPTP + 0 PR), 1.25 % MMMUNMMSD Votes 847,095 42.01 45.81 PR Value 44,583.95 42,354.75 40,337.86 38,504.32 36,830.22 35,295.63 33,883.80 32,580.58 31,373.89 30,253.39 29,210.17 28,236.50 27,325.65 26,471.72 25,669.55 24,914.56 24,202.71 23,530.42 23,530.42 22,894.46 MMMUNMMSD Seats 18 LabourMSMPMSD Votes 1,001,903 49.69 54.19 PR Value 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,854.83 23,300.07 23,300.07 LabourMSMPMSD Seats 41 MMMUNMMSD SEATS% 30.00 LabourMSM PMSD SEATS % 68.33
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 36 36
41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 43
31.15 32.26 33.33 34.38 35.38 36.36 37.31 38.24 39.13 40.00 40.85 41.67 42.47 43.24 44.00 44.74 45.45 44.87 45.57 45.00
67.21 66.13 65.08 64.06 63.08 62.12 61.19 60.29 59.42 58.57 57.75 56.94 56.16 55.41 54.67 53.95 53.25 53.85 53.16 53.75
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MMM-UN-MMSD Seats %
FSN Seats %
In the same elections, in a configuration of a total of 80 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post and 20 seats allocated under the new Loser System, the situation would have been as follows: Labour Party-MSM-PMSD: 47 Seats (41 FPTP + 6 RU), 58.75 % MSM-MMR: 32 Seats (18 FPTP + 14 RU), 40.00 % FSN: 1 Seat (1 FPTP + 0 PR), 1.25 %
FSN Seats % 1.25 MMM-UN-MMSD Seats % 40.00 Labour Party-MSMPMSD Seats % 58.75
MMM-UN-MMSD Seats %
FSN Seats %
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For a configuration of a total of 90 seats in parliament, comprising of 60 seats at First Past The Post, 20 seats allocated under the new Loser System and 10 seats under PR , the situation would be as follows: Labour Party-MSM-PMSD: 48 Seats (41 FPTP + 6 RU + 1 PR), 53.33 % MSM-MMR: 41 Seats (18 FPTP + 14 RU + 9 PR), 45.56 % FSN: 1 Seat (1 FPTP + 0 RU + 0 PR), 1.11 % MMMUNMMSD Seats 18 32 LabourMSMPMSD Votes 1,001,903 1,001,903 49.69 54.19 PR Value 23,854.83 20,872.98 20,872.98 20,872.98 20,872.98 20,872.98 20,872.98 20,872.98 20,872.98 20,447.00 LabourMSMPMSD Seats 41 47 FSN Sea t 1 1 MMMUNMMSD SEATS% 30.00 40.00 LabourMSM PMSD SEATS % 68.33 58.75
MMM-UNMMSD Votes 847,095 + 20 Losers Vote % Relative % Add. Seat 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 847,095 42.01 45.81 PR Value 44,583.95 24,914.56 24,202.71 23,530.42 22,894.46 22,291.97 21,720.38 21,177.38 20,660.85 20,660.85
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 40 41
47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 48 48
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40.74 41.46 42.17 42.86 43.53 44.19 44.83 45.45 44.94 45.56
58.02 57.32 56.63 55.95 55.29 54.65 54.02 53.41 53.93 53.33
1.23 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.11
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MMM-UN-MMSD Seats %
FSN Seats %
2010 ELECTIONS in % MMMUNMMSD Votes % 42.01 42.01 42.01 42.01 42.01 Labour PartyMSMPMSD Votes % 49.69 49.69 49.69 49.69 49.69 MMMUNMMSD Seats % 30.00 40.00 45.00 Labour PartyMSMPMSD Seats % 68.33 58.57 53.75
Seats 60 FPTP 60 FPTP + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 Losers + 20 PR
40.00
58.75
1.25
42.01
49.69
2.54
45.56
53.33
1.11
42.01
49.69
2.54
45.00
54.00
1.00
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50 40 30 20 10 0 60 FPTP 60 FPTP + 10 PR 60 FPTP + 20 PR Seats MMM-UN-MMSD Votes % FSN Votes % Labour Party-MSM- PMSD Seats % Labour Party-MSM- PMSD Votes % MMM-UN-MMSD Seats % FSN Seats % 60 FPTP + 60 FPTP + 60 FPTP + 20 Losers 20 Losers + 20 Losers + 10 PR 20 PR
Conclusion We have seen as from above that the best combination for an effective representativity of the parties under the new electoral system has to be 60 elected through First Past The Post (FPTP) plus 20 candidates who have just come after the elected members in each constituency, i.e. they have ranked 4th position AND together with a combination of 10 candidates nominated under the PR through the party list system.
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Date Party/Alliance 1991 MSM-MMM-MTD Labour Party-PMSD 1995 Labour Party MMM MSM MMR Parti Gaetan Duval MMP & HP MMSM 2000 MMM MSM Labour Party PMXD MDN Raj Dayal 2005 Labour Party PMXD MMM MSM Labour Party MSM 2010 PMSD MMM-UNMMSD FSN
FPTP Seats 57 3 60 0 0 0 0 54 6 38 22 41 18 1
FPTP Seats Date 1991 Party/Alliance MSM-MMM-MTD Labour PartyPMSD Labour Party MMM MSM MMR Parti Gaetan Duval MMP & HP MMSM MMM MSM Labour Party PMXD MDN Raj Dayal Labour Party PMXD MMM MSM Labour Party MSM - PMSD MMM-UNMMSD FSN Votes % 55.40 39.30 65.17 19.85 6.33 1.73 1.53 51.70 36.57 # 57 3 60 0 0 0 0 54 6 0 48.80 42,60 49.69 42.01 2.54 38 22 41 18 1 % 95.00 5.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 10.00 0.00 63.33 36.67 68.33 30.00 1.67
FPTP + 20 PR Seats # 57 23 62 18 0 0 0 54 26 0 43 37 43 36 1 % 71.25 28.75 77.50 22.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 67.50 32.50 0.00 53.75 46.25 53.75 45.00 1.25
FPTP + 20 RU Seats # 60 20 60 14 3 2 1 57 22 1 45 35 47 32 1 % 75.00 25.00 75.00 17.50 3.75 2.50 1.25 71.25 27.50 1.25 56.25 43.75 58.75 40.00 1.25
FPTP + 20 RU + 10 PR Seats # 60 30 65 19 3 2 1 57 32 1 48 42 48 41 1 % 66.67 33.33 72.22 21.11 3.33 2.22 1.11 63.33 35.56 1.11 53.33 46.67 53.33 45.56 1.11
1995
2000
2005
2010
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Appendix: Through the document, RU is used to represent the RUNNER UP, i.e. the candidate ranked 4th in the elections. At times, it is referred as LOSER or elected under the New Loser System
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this document are those of the author (Dave Kissoondoyal) and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to the MMM
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