A Critical Analysis & Objective Appraisal of the Fuel Subsidy Issue &...

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A Critical Analysis & Objective Appraisal of the Fuel Subsidy Issue & The Economy - The Untold Truths & Insincerity of the Jonathan Administration

It was Victor Hugo who said that no man can withstand the strength of an idea whose time has come. And that is exactly what is happening with the Occupy Nigeria Movement across the country today; for a time comes when a people can no longer take it, especially when push turns to shove. And the great issue today is not so much about the removal of petrol subsidy by the government but the so-called justification for its removal. Now, it doesnt matter which side of the spectrum you belong, because at the end of the day, we are all Nigerians, and we have no other country other than Nigeria to call our own; what is important however is that you take a pragmatic approach and bring superior argument to bear in defending your stand. You know; two weeks ago, we issued a strong Statement against the removal of Fuel Subsidy, and we declared our participation in; and our unflinching support for the just suspended Occupy Nigeria Movement by organised labour, promising to come out with clear and detailed facts on why we believe that the Petrol Subsidy should stay. And that is precisely what we want to do in this piece. In our belief that to effectively debate and win an issue with this government, you have to use its own data, we are going to rely on information from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). In some other analysis and inferences with respect to global oil and gas distribution, usage and pricing, as well as population figures, we will rely on information from the Oil and Gas Journal, the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) World Factbook, and several other Documents. First, the petrol subsidy should be reinstated because the Jonathan Administration is being very economical with the truth about the actual distribution statistics and production capacity of the Nigerian petroleum sector. According to information from the NBS and the NNPC Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB), 899,403,074barrels {2.46millionbarrels per day (bpd)} of crude oil was lifted in year 2010. Out of this, the Joint Venture Companies (JVC), and the indigenous Oil Firms lifted 510,616,311(57% or 1.399millionbpd) while the NNPC lifted 388,786,763 barrels (43%), averaging 1.07millionbpd. Of the total quantity lifted by the NNPC, export for the Federation Account was 257,333,705barrels. If we are to multiply this quantity with the US$90 per barrel projected by the Jonathan Administration in its so-called Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE) Policy Document, it will amount to US$23.2billion or N3.4trillion. The remaining 131,453,058barrels (360,145bpd), lifted by the NNPC was earmarked for domestic refining, but only 34,700,973barrels (95,071bpd) was supplied to the 4 Refineries {since they are operating below 30% of their 445,000bpd installed capacity due to their moribund state occasioned by sabotage and diversion of Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) funds by the contractors and their government apologists}. And by the way, Nigeria needs much less than 360,145bpd for local consumption; as a matter of fact, this country needs 140,066-215,396bpd only for local consumption as we shall show shortly. The balance of 96,752,085barrels (265,074bpd) of unprocessed crude was exported but the NNPC didnt say where the proceeds went to, and if we multiply this quantity by government projected US$90 per barrel, it will amount to US$8.7billion or N1.3trillion. In the preceding year 2009, available information from the NBS and the NNPC ASB indicated that the NNPC alone lifted 335,279,899barrels (42.5% or 0.92millionbpd) for both domestic utilisation and export. From this, total exports for the Federation Account was 173,095,152barrels. When we multiply this quantity by the government projected US$90 per barrel, we have US$15.6billion or N2.3trillion. The remaining 162,184,747barrels (444,342bpd) out of the total quantity lifted by the NNPC was allocated for domestic refining, but only 19,633,555barrels (53,791bpd) was supplied to the Refineries, and the balance of 142,551,192barrels (390,551bpd) of unprocessed crude was exported, but again, the NNPC didnt state where the proceeds went to, and if we are to multiply this by the government projected US$90 per barrel, it will amount to US$12.8billion or N1.9trillion. All of this analysis reveals that the Nigerian government makes a whopping US$28.4-US$31.9billion or N4.2-N4.7trillion from the NNPC alone, not to mention what it generates from gas production and what it makes from its controlling share of the JVCs and others. Besides, it is not only from oil and gas that Nigeria generates its revenue; it also generates about 15%-30% of its revenues from other sectors of the economy. Also, State governments across the Federation make substantial money from Internal Generated Revenue (IGR) and other sources. Information available from various banks reveals that Lagos State alone for instance makes between N17-N22billion (US$115-US$149million) IGR monthly. How then, can the Jonathan Administration be telling Nigerians that the country is broke? Second, information from the NBS and the NNPC ASB revealed that 8,476,990,000litres (53,314,402barrels or 140,066bpd; 159Litres=1Barrel) of petroleum products in year 2010 was distributed nationally averaging a daily consumption of 17.41millionlitres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) or gasoline (Petrol), 2.41millionlitres of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), 1.83millionlitres of Household Kerosene (HHK), and other by-products whose daily consumption statistics are not documented. However, total PMS distribution of 6,353,517.99litres, according to the NBS and the NNPC ASB, was about 33% lower than 2009 total volume due to non availability of figures from two major products retailers, MRS and Oando which accounted for 16% of total PMS distribution in 2009. In the preceding year 2009, a total of 12,500,520,000litres (78,619,623barrels or 215,396bpd; 159Litres=1Barrel) of petroleum products, as revealed by the NBS and the NNPC ASB, was distributed or sold nationally, averaging a daily consumption of 26.04millionlitres of PMS, 3.10millionlitres of AGO, 1.93millionlitres of HHK, and other by-products whose daily consumption statistics are not also mentioned. In addition, data from the NBS and the NNPC 2011 first and second Quarter Petroleum Information shows that crude oil lifting averaged 2.51millionbpd and 2.39millionbpd respectively which is still consistent with the 2.46millionbpd of oil production in the country. Moreover, the NBS and the NNPC data reveals that the total value of imported petroleum products for year 2010 was US$5.5billion (N814billion) and that of year 2009 was US$4.8billion (N710billion). This critical analysis tells us that Nigeria only need 140,066-215,396bpd (22.3million-34.2millionlitres; 1Barrel=159Litres) of refined petroleum products for daily consumption based on government own data, and that equally means that if the 4 Refineries in the country (with a total installed capacity of 445,000bpd) are working optimally, they can refine enough petroleum products for local consumption and still have enough left for exportation. This analysis also tells us that the Nigerian government spends less than N1trillion annually for importation of petroleum products based on its own data. And since the petroleum products are sold and not distributed for free to Nigerians, it presupposes that the government spends a lot less than half of these amounts for subsidies if indeed there are any. In short, it is our estimate that the government spends less than N200billion for such. Besides, government generates a lot of revenue which we cannot quantify here from the distribution and sale of these petroleum products from the Oil marketers in terms of road tax, contribution to the Petroleum Equalisation Fund (PEF) and others. For example, between 1993 and 1998, when the General Abacha Military Junta was in power, N3 for every litre of fuel sold was remitted to the defunct Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), and the price of oil per barrel then at the International Market in that given period was between US$11 and US$20 yearly average, and the pump price of PMS in that same period, in this country never rose above N11. How is it then that the Jonathan Administration claims that Nigeria consume 35-40millionlitres of PMS alone daily, and that it spends over N1.13trillion yearly for fuel subsidy (Bear in mind that the term Fuel comprises not only petrol or gasoline but every other petroleum product and other substances

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that are combustible and that can be consumed to produce energy or serve as a source of energy or heat) when Diesel and LPFO (Low Pour Fuel Oil) is fully deregulated by government already? Third, let us consider the issues of subsidy and arbitrage objectively. A number of countries, particularly oil-rich countries, according to information from the Oil and Gas Journal, the CIA World Factbook and other sources; subsidises the cost of gasoline (Petrol) and other petroleum products (Although, it discourages fuel efficiency if not properly managed). Almost all, if not all of Organisation of Petroleum-Exporting Countries {(OPEC)-Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ecuador and Venezuela} subsidises the cost of petroleum products for their citizens, and among OPEC, Nigeria is the sixth largest Exporter of crude oil, and the World 12th largest producer of crude oil (2.46millionbpd), with 4 epileptic Refineries, maintaining the pump price of gasoline (petrol) before January 1, 2012 at US$0.44 (N65); effective January 1, 2012, jacked up petrol pump prices to US$0.97 (N143) per litre, which resulted in the Occupy Nigeria Mass Protests and Strikes. The government has now reduced it to US$0.66 (N97) per litre, and we do not accept this at all. But Nigeria is also the poorest in terms of living standards among OPEC with inefficient and erratic Power (Energy) Supply, Poor Transportation System and lack of Basic Infrastructure. The other OPEC countries with very good Infrastructure and sufficient, and stable Power (Energy) Supply, still maintains petrol pump prices at very low rates, with some subsidising it to almost zero level. Algeria, for instance is the World 15th largest producer of crude oil (2,125,000bpd) with 5 Refineries, and it maintains petrol pump price at US$0.41 (N61); Libya (As at early 2011, before Muammar al-Qaddafi death), the World 17th largest producer of crude oil (1,79millionbpd), with 5 functional Refineries maintains petrol pump price at US$0.17 (N25); Iraq, the World 13th largest producer of crude oil (2.4millionbpd), with 11 functional Refineries, maintains petrol pump prices at US$0.38 (N56); Iran, the World 4th largest producer of crude oil (4.2millionbpd), with 9 functional Refineries and having the World 10th largest Refinery (Abadan Refinery, refining 450,000bpd), maintains petrol pump price at US$0.65 (N96); Kuwait, the World 10th largest producer of crude oil (2,49millionbpd) subsidises petrol at US$0.22 (N33); Qatar, the World 20th largest producer of crude oil (1.2millionbpd), maintains petrol pump price at US$0.22 (N33); Saudi Arabia, the World 2nd largest producer of crude oil (8.8millionbpd), with 9 functional Refineries and having the World 5th largest Refinery (Ras Tanura Refinery, refining 550,000bpd), subsidises petrol for its citizens at US$0.16 (N24); the UAE, the World 8th largest producer of crude oil (2.8millionbpd), with 4 functional Refineries maintains petrol pump prices at US$0.48 (N71); Ecuador, the World 30th largest producer of crude oil (485,700bpd), maintains petrol pump price at US$0.44 (N65); and Venezuela, the World 11th largest producer of crude oil (2.47millionbpd), with 12 functional Refineries, and having the World 2nd largest Refinery (Paraguana Refinery, refining 940,000bpd), maintains petrol pump prices at US$0.02 (N3). These countries are all OPEC Members. However, the soaring cost of crude oil in recent years led some other countries (Not OPEC Members) to cut down subsidies, moving inflation from the government debt to the populace, often resulting in political unrest. On December 2010, for instance, the Bolivian government issued a decree removing subsidies and hiking prices as much as 83% with the argument (Just like the Nigerian government is now doing) that illegal exports (contraband) to neighbouring countries was harming the economy. After widespread strikes, the Bolivian government cancelled all planned hikes, and maintains a pump price of US$0.54 (N80) per litre. And it is instructive to note that Bolivia is the World 66th largest producer of crude oil (47,050bpd) with 5 functional Refineries. Malaysia equally had the same issue, but it found a constructive way around it. Malaysia, a country of some 28.3million people, and the 27th World largest producer of crude oil (693,700bpd) with six functional Refineries, spends US$14billion (N2.1trillion) subsidising petrol, diesel and gas each year. In 2008, the Malaysian government hiked petrol prices by 40%, but it also announced a yearly cash rebate to Malaysian citizens, and plans to set up separate petrol pumps at its borders petrol stations to sell fuel to foreigners at market rates so that only Malaysians can benefit from subsidised petrol and these petrol pumps at its borders targets Singaporeans and Thais who make day trips across the border to fill their tanks with cheaper fuel there. Since then, fuel prices in Malaysia has dropped about six times and increased only twice. The Malaysian government still maintains petrol prices at US$0.61 (N90) per litre. But then, the country has basic Infrastructure, stable Power (Energy) Supply, Good Transportation Network and other Social Amenities, and Nigeria has none of these things. In Indonesia, a nation with a population of 237.6million, and the World 21st largest producer of crude oil (1,023,000bpd) with 10 functional Refineries, the government spends US$10-14billion on fuel subsidy and maintains a pump price of PMS at US$0.59 (N87). One of the steps the Indonesian government has taken around this issue is to suggest that private car owners who are wealthy in Indonesian terms be excluded from subsidies entirely, with the cheap fuel limited to public transport and Motorcycles. But again, Indonesia also has good infrastructure and stable power (Energy) supply. Mexico, a country of 112.3million people and the World 7th largest producer of crude oil (3,001,000bpd) with 7 functional Refineries also subsidises petrol for its citizens. Some other countries with fuel subsidies, to mention but a few, are Egypt, US$0.31 (N46), the World 28th largest producer of crude oil (680,500bpd) with 9 functional Refineries, and a population of 81.2million; Brunei, US$0.39 (N58), the World 47th largest producer of crude oil (146,000bpd), and Trinidad and Tobago, US$0.64 (N95), the World 44th largest producer of crude oil (151,000bpd). Even the United States, the World 3rd largest producer of crude oil (7.8millionbpd), the World 3rd largest population (312.8million), and having the World fourth largest Refinery in Texas (refining 572,500bpd) and having about 153 other functional Refineries cutting across several States (With about 26 in Texas, 20 in California and 16 in Louisiana), whose gasoline (Petrol) pump prices are not regulated, still provides about US$4billion or so in subsidies to oil and gas companies yearly, and pump prices ranges between US$0.80 to US$1 per litre in the US, depending on the State. All of these countries mentioned have sufficient and stable power (Energy) supply and good Infrastructure. So, the Jonathan Administration can learn from these countries, especially the OPEC ones and stop making comparisons between Nigeria and neighbouring West African countries of Ghana {World 88th largest producer of crude oil (7,081bpd)}, Chad {World 50th largest producer of crude oil (115,000bpd)}, and Benin Republic that has insignificant or no oil production and yet have sufficient and stable power (Energy) supply. Fourth, it is not at all true as the Jonathan Administration has been trying to make Nigerians believe that the Nigerian Masses have never enjoyed the so-called fuel subsidy. On the contrary, it is the only commodity out of the collective commonwealth that the Nigerian people enjoy, even if minimal. The average Nigerian uses gasoline (Petrol) to power generating sets to generate his or her electricity (Due to the national grid epilepsy), both at work and at home, and also uses it for transportation purposes. Again, the argument by the Administration Officials that the pump price of petrol will fall down when deregulated, and using the Telecom Industry as an example does not hold any water, because for over five years now, diesel and LPFO has been deregulated, yet their prices keep skyrocketing, and had never come down. It has in fact led to massive closure of industries, and lay-offs, especially in the textile and automobile industries because these industries uses diesel and LPFO to power their businesses and they just couldnt cope with the rising costs. Fifth, it is not equally true that if Nigeria does not fully deregulate the downstream sector of the petroleum industry and remove fuel subsidy, as the Jonathan Administration has continually harped, that the economy will go down in about five years time, and that Nigeria, as a nation will be worse off than the Greek situation. In the first instance, the Grecian economy is the 32nd largest in the world by nominal gross domestic product (GDP)and the 37th largest at purchasing power parity (PPP), according to data by the World Bank for the year 2010; per capita, it is ranked 33rd by nominal GDP and 31st at PPP according to the 2010 data. Nigeria doesnt even come close. Greece is a developed country; Nigeria is still a developing country. There are no parallels at all, more so, in terms of subsidy between the Grecian Economy and the Nigerian Economy; the only parallel is that of blind corruption. The economic crisis in Greece was chiefly caused by corruption and the associated issue of poor standards of tax collection, which is a primal obstacle in overcoming the countrys financial problems. Its uncontrolled government spending and doctoral reports on the economy, coupled with its ratio to savings exceeding 100%, and its history of loan default in 1826, 1843, 1860 and 1893 led to a crisis in International confidence on Greece ability to repay its sovereign debt. But the country also has a lot going for it, like its strong workforce among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and it has a high standard of living (29th in the world). In 2010, Greece was the European Union (EU) largest producer of Cotton, 2nd in Rice, 3rd in Figs, Tomatoes,

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Water Melon, 4th in Tobacco, and has wonderful Tourism and Shipping Industries. Agriculture contributes 3.3% of the countrys GDP, and employs 12% of the countrys workforce. It is self-sufficient in Power (Energy) Supply, besides having 81 Airports as at 2010. Greece also has at least 10million barrels of proven crude oil reserves and its the World 89th largest producer of crude oil (6,779bpd). As have been stated earlier, the only parallel between the Greek situation and the Nigerian situation is blind and ruthless corruption, and Greek government officials cant even equal or come near the Nigerian government officials in corruption at all. The corruption index in Nigeria is legendary, and the manner in which it is carried out is very ruthless indeed. The present government in particular is singularly corrupt, inept and without popular support. Why, for instance, is the pump price of Household Kerosene (HHK) which is still subsidised to zero level in this country selling for US$1 (N150) when the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) has pegged its retail pump price at US$0.34 (N50) despite several outcries? And why has the Jonathan Administration refused to do anything about it? In the current national budget before the Nigerian National Assembly, About US$6.8million (N1billion) is being budgeted for food alone in the Presidency for 2012. Today, about 17,000 public officials (Elected and appointed political office holders), across the federation earns US$9.5billion (N1.4trillion), which is a third of the national budget in a nation of 162.5million people. Information from the Budget Office reveals that members of the National Assembly alone gulp 26% of the nations recurrent expenditure. A Senator of the Federal Republic earns about US$2.8million (N420million), with the Senate President earning about US$4.1million (N600million), while their counterpart in the House of Representatives earns about US$2.4million (N360million). This is monumental fraud and blind looting of the commonwealth of the Nigerian people. In fact, the Nigerian government is the most subsidised government in the world. Paraphrasing what one Nigerian wrote a few days ago, When a Nigerian paysfor imported fuel rather than locally refined fuel, he is subsidising the incompetence of government. When a Nigerian has to buy a generator, petrol and diesel because of lack of power supply, he is subsidising the incompetence of government. When a Nigerian has to drill a borehole, buy pure water or bottled water because there is no potable water supply provided by government, he is subsidising the incompetence of government. When a Nigerian has to maintain 3 Phone Lines or 3 different Internet subscriptions because of poor call quality and a crippled bandwidth, he is subsidising the poor regulation by government. When a Nigerian pays to secure his life and property; he is subsidising the inability of government to protect him. We also subsidise the government when we visit the roadside mechanic more often than usual or sometimes with our lives due to bad roads. We can go on and on about the poor educational system, healthcare delivery, the environment, etcetera. It is time for us to remove our own subsidy from the government by making the government do what it supposed to do. Government doesnt do us a favour when it does the work of governance. That was what the Occupy Nigeria Mass Protests and Strikes were all about. Enough is enough. Let the Jonathan Administration deal with the much talked about cabal in the oil industry, and arrest the issue of arbitrage, illegal exports (Contraband) by effectively policing the borders, after all the president is also the Commander in Chief, and let the Jonathan Administration prune itself by putting an end to uncontrolled spending, reducing its Ministries, Special Advisers and reducing the wastage in government, as well as revamping our Refineries, building new ones, providing electricity, potable water, good transportation system and basic Infrastructure before talking about the removal of petrol subsidy, because on the flipside, there is really nothing wrong with deregulation in the literal sense of the word. Deregulation simply means freeing a trade, business activity, etcetera from certain bureaucratic rules and controls, and may indeed open up the market and encourage investors in the downstream sector. But the basic point is that Deregulation if implemented in Nigeria now will not work as a result of our weak and disruptive socio-political and economic system, and will only serve to compound the woes, and sufferings of the Nigerian people. Government should therefore forget about such talks and concentrate on the needfulstrengthening of our socio-political and economic system, tackling the menace of the Boko Haram Sect, providing security and implementing in toto the new national minimum wage to enable Nigerians cope with the rising economic crisis. In the final analysis, Nigeria as a low cost producer of crude oil should be able to set aside enough for local consumption which can be refined both locally and internationally, throw open the imports of petroleum products to all interested Importers pending such a time when there are enough local Refineries and when the present ones are retool to optimal working condition, take care of all costs, guarantee fair profit margins for Marketers and other Players, make enough profit for government through the addition of reasonable tax revenue, and then still make available to its citizens the refined products at a far cheaper rate than the US$0.44 (N65), it was before January 1, 2012. Government must also diversify the economy by focusing on other natural resources and other sectors. Nigeria has one of the worlds largest deposits of bitumen and other solid minerals. This country used to produce cocoa, groundnut and oil palm. Some years ago, Malaysia came to this nation to learn and take our oil palm seedling to grow their economy. And today, Malaysia is a Net Exporter, and we have become Net Importer. If Nigeria really wants to grow its economy, then it must, as a matter of urgency focus on agriculture. Agriculture is crucial and very strategic to the growth of the African continent. It is the leading economic sector, constituting 30% of GDP and over 70% of employment, and it equally has enormous growth potentials, considering the growing demand for food crops from emerging markets. But rejuvenating agriculture in this country will not be possible until the transportation system (Roads, Sea and Rail) and electricity generation issue are addressed, and appropriate funding for research and the Universities of Agriculture provided. All of these measures will enable the agricultural sector to sufficiently produce to feed the nation, export and meet the intermediate input requirements of the Manufacturing Sector (Brewery, Flour Milling, Sugar Producing) to reduce costs. With determination, unyielding hope and abiding faith, Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko Editor in Chief and Spokesperson eenakoko@consciencereports.tv CONVERSION:* US$1 =148 1Barrel=159Litres SOURCES: *NNPC Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB)-2009 and 2010 Copies *NNPC 2011 First and Second Quarter Petroleum Information *National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of Nigeria *Oil and Gas Journal; Pennwell Publishing *US CIA World Factbook *2010 Refinery Rankings; US Department of Energy *A Study of Oil Refining in Sub-Saharan Africa; CITAC Africa LLP *2011 NACS Annual Fuels Report (2004 and 2006 Copies) *FSDH Weekly Nigerian Capital and Money Market Reports *FSDH Yearly Economic and Financial Market Review and Outlook (2010) *United Nations Analytical Report for the Revision of World Population Prospects (2004 and 2006) *Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects; 2010 Revision-United Nations *Demographic Internet Staff (2009)-international Programmes Centre. Census.gov *Gross Domestic Product 2010-World Bank *Gross Domestic Product 2010, PPP-World Bank *Fitch Complete Sovereign Rating History-July 2011 *OECD Economic Surveys (Greece) The views expressed in this Special Report and Analysis, are strictly of Conscience Reports and must not be misconstrued or attributed otherwise. Conscience Reports is an Online Information Network and Whistle-blowing Portal dedicated to

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the advancement of freedom everywherepromoting strong democratic institutions, corporate and government accountability, protecting whistleblowers and activists as well as advocating and advancing free-speech, free-thought, free-will, free-association and free-press everywhere For more on Conscience Reports, including, but not limited to our special reports and analysis, please, visit http://www.consciencereports.tv Follow us at: http://www.facebook.com/Conscience.Reports http://www.twitter.com/consciencerpts http://www.digg.com/consciencereports http://www.youtube.com/consciencereports http://www.linkedin.com/pub/conscience-reports/28/aa5/78 P.O. Box 7105, G.P.O. Marina, Lagos, Nigeria +2348033188864, +2348094648891, +2348082588868, +2348182042143 www.consciencereports.tv | info@consciencereports.tv
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