The future of the future

We see things not as they are, but as we are

The older and more experienced we become, the more we embroider our inner world with what behavioural psychologists call theory of mind the sense that the world is as we see it and that other peoples perspectives are often less accurate or even wilfully perverse.
A couple of years ago, a primary school teacher in the Midlands took a typewriter into class. He let the seven year olds look at it, play with it and generally kick it around. At the end of the day, he asked them what they thought of it.
Confidential. Seymour Powell Limited, 2010. All rights reserved.

The Talmud

The answer was startling. Cool...a laptop that prints as you write, that you dont have to plug in, was the consensus. Amusing though this story is, it actually

illustrates beautifully how the future works. As The Talmud (and a host of others) has observed, we have a habit of making sense of the world through our own experiences. In fact, its very difficult not to. If your only experience of a portable writing device is a laptop, then a typewriter is a mechanical version of that. If virtually everything you use or play with is powered by batteries, then a self powered device is fascinating possibly even futuristic. The older and more experienced we become, the more we embroider our inner world with what behavioural psychologists call theory of mind the sense that the world is as we see it and that other peoples perspectives are often less accurate or even wilfully perverse. Although most of us function reasonably well within society, we each carry a unique bundle of mores and agendas that are constantly challenged by our own insecurity when dealing with others. Were constantly recalibrating. And were extremely suggestible, while remaining mildly suspicious. This makes coming up with new products and services an extremely complex problem. But when we hit on common ground, by crackey, we go for it. And if that common ground is new common ground, then we go for it big time. Awareness of any such common ground comes around much faster than it used to too. People living in Italy at the beginning of the 16th Century scarcely went around saying Wow, this
Confidential. Seymour Powell Limited, 2010. All rights reserved.

Renaissance thing is great, isnt it? No, they had to wait a few years before they could turn to ask themselves What the f**k was that? Virtually everyone in the developed world has direct access to multiple streams of information and collective understanding that took decades to form 500 years ago. Now that can take place in months or even weeks. The Renaissance gained traction because it had broad-bandwidth thinkers who could integrate the technical possibilities of the time into new ideas. They were supported by highly competent craftsmen the Guildsmen who could make this big picture thinking real.

As The Talmud (and a host of others) has observed,we have a habit of making sense of the world through our own experiences.

This was all funded by merchants and businesses with very deep pockets (just as the visionary whiz kids behind Google, Facebook, YouTube, Apple or Microsoft have been funded by older, richer investors). And this is happening all over again, under our very noses. The polymaths and the guilds. But for the first time since the Renaissance (or certainly since the Industrial Revolution) the future is mediated not by technology (because, as were about to see, we are on the cusp of being able to do just about anything), but by our ability to imagine what to do with that technology. With this come new moral choices and philosophies. Its no longer about what we can do, but what we should do. The early part of the 21st Century aint like any other run-of-the-mill epoch. This is Renaissance 2. And this time, its personal. So where are we in all this? What is the future? Basically, the future is being formed by a number of broad-bandwidth thinkers who are lassoing the present from their vantage point in the future and dragging the rest of us towards them. It isnt born from extrapolating trends or consumer research, but is largely a self-fulfilling prophecy being fought here and now, by people who have started earlier than their competitors. Interacting closely with these thinkers is
Confidential. Seymour Powell Limited, 2010. All rights reserved.

emergent behaviour us, basically. We tend to react to the new by finding ways to work with or against it. Restrict peoples movements and ease of use with a new application, such as text messaging 15 years ago, and what appears? A new, foreshortened syntax and vocabulary to cope with it. Provide a product with a keyboard that makes text easier and what happens? The syntax modifies again, elongating itself back to something approaching good grammar, while some of the more novel components remain: Lol, WTF! etc.

But for the first time since the Renaissance (or certainly since the Industrial Revolution) the future is mediated not by technology (because, as were about to see, we are on the cusp of being able to do just about anything), but by our ability to imagine what to do with that technology.

Who invents this stuff? We do. Action, as Newton observed, is met by equal and opposite reaction. One of my favourite examples of this is the Mosquito, a device created to annoy and disperse undesirable teenagers lurking around public spaces by issuing a tone too high to be heard by most adults, but within the frequency range of the younger ear. Brilliant. So whats the reaction? Some smartarse records this ultrasonic hum onto a mobile phone and uses it as a ring-tone that can be heard only by young people. In the classroom, the teacher is oblivious to the sound. Emergent behaviour. Corporate action, user reaction. The wheel goes round. So creating the future is a nerve-wracking process. People cant tell you what theyre going to want, really, because they usually dont know. So companies have to get stuff out there and wait to see what the world makes of it. No wonder many businesses look desperately for metrics that can raise their hit rate. But as the world wags on, and the communication revolution continues unabated, the role of emergent behaviour is going to
Confidential. Seymour Powell Limited, 2010. All rights reserved.

become even more important. So how do we interpret whats going to happen? By looking around us more and sniffing out the potential, unexpected coincidences that cause markets and behaviours to flip (or tip as Malcolm Gladwell would have it). Thats where the Art of the Future really lies. So lets look at some stuff you may not have taken into account yet in your NPD network or innovation thingy; background stuff that may well have a profound impact on your business. As cyberpunk novelist William Gibson remarked recently, The futures already here, it just isnt very well distributed. But buckle-up, Dorothy, because some of this may scare the crap out of you. First, genetics. This one is going to hit every single one of us very hard. Some of it youll like, some of it you wont. In front of me, as I write this, is a sliver of glass about 30mm square. On it, you can barely make out a series of tiny dots and ridges. But if I dropped it under an electron microscope something utterly extraordinary would appear: genes. Genes in serried ranks. Millions of them. Your genes. All of them. The entire human genome on a sheet of glass. The entire set of instructions for making a

person. And these are real genes, not pictures or digital equivalents. The first one of these cost $26 million to make two years ago. This one cost $340. Whats it for? Well, if youre in the business of making genes, or just messing with them, then one of these puppies comes in real handy. Genes like to stick to their identical counterparts, like two halves of a zipper. Tag your new genes with a dye and expose them to the glass sheet and where the congregate, where they get on with our genes, they fluoresce. Bingo. Whether youre in the shampoo business, the beauty business, the food industry or the government, gene expression is a fundamental part of the near future. While were on biology, what do the jellyfish turritopsis nutricula, several lobster species and the Joshua tree have in common? Theyre all potentially immortal. Not just long-lived: immortal, thanks to unique cell behaviour. And specialists in cell mortality are already suggesting that the first person to live for a thousand years may already be alive. Theres a real possibility that those of us now in our 50s may live to be 150 years old, if the present rate of genetic development continues. And it will.

So what happens if we actually stop dying? The population goes screaming though the roof, of course. But who could resist the idea of immortality, forever young...? And if everyone looks young, what happens to beauty? What if everyone assigns themselves

So creating the future is a nervewracking process. People cant tell you what theyre going to want, really, because they usually dont know. So companies have to get stuff out there and wait to see what the world makes of it. No wonder many businesses look desperately for metrics that can raise their hit rate. But as the world wags on, and the communication revolution continues unabated, the role of emergent behaviour is going to become even more important.

Confidential. Seymour Powell Limited, 2010. All rights reserved.

to their perfect age? In women, on average, this is apparently 22, but maybe well all want to look 17? And after that 13? How about 6? This may sound foolish but, as of early 2010, DNA-based cosmeceuticals are only months away, and with them a vast array of genespecific diagnostics delivering customised therapies for your genotype in the future. People are already happy to shoot up on botulism in the name of youthfulness, or to cut themselves up for the same reason. Genetically reassigning your age will be surely irresistible. Next up, robotics. A few years ago, Honda announced that by the second decade of the 21st Century its primary activity would be in the production of robotic systems. Not robots in the mould of Marvin the Paranoid Android, or Robby the Robot from Forbidden Planet, but technological cohabitants machines with specific capabilities that can undertake their jobs autonomously. Philips has demonstrated a working concept of a Fukitorimushi (or wiping up creature), which detects dirt on your work surfaces and then goes about mopping them up. It looks like an animated pan scourer. Oh, how we laugh. But its exactly these sorts of menial, singular tasks that we may see being handed over to our technological co-habitants very soon. Fifteen years ago, Seymourpowell was asked by a Japanese company to design a washing
Confidential. Seymour Powell Limited, 2010. All rights reserved.

machine that worked on neuro fuzzy logic principles. The neural network allowed the machine to learn; fuzzy logic allowing it to make decisions based on non-specific data. They were anxious because it only needed one button. We were delighted. But what caught my imagination most was the idea of a washing machine that learned. Imagine the small ads of the Future: Washing Machine for sale / 4 years experience / 30% premium. The washing machine with one button hasnt happened yet, but it will. But how does all this help you? Unless your business is run by a visionary autocrat who is one of the elite who make the future, what can you do other than hang around until it happens and then catch up as fast as you can? Well, heres some practical self-help to tide you over: 1. Plan for Discontinuity Stand where you are and look a short way into the future. Is your product or service likely to be imposed upon by something else? If youre in the engine lubrication business, what happens if electric vehicles become the norm? If youre in the airline business, what happens to your business class product if High Definition Video conferencing becomes easily affordable? Gather intelligence on these parallel universes, so at least you have some idea of what could

take you out in the near future. 2. Understand the Young When you observe emergent behaviour amongst young people you are using one of the only available telescopes that accurately observes the future. Watch carefully. The future is actually behind you, if you think about it. 3. Sustainability is the Deck If youre planning on continuing to use nonrenewables, like certain plastics and oil-based products, think again. Sustainability isnt a marketing ploy; its the basic deck for everything you make and sell in the future. This includes premium and luxury products. Organisations that dont meet the standards of the crowd will be strung-up through social networks and word-of-mouth. It really is a Revolution. 4. Get out more Social networking doesnt replace physical contact. In fact, its generating new forms of social groups that didnt exist before. And as more of what we do in our offices and homes is available in the mobile domain, this will increase. 5. Talk to someone who works in the future The future is not written in the opinions of the focus group. If youre serious about leading the future, spend time with people who are working on long-term product, service and social
Confidential. Seymour Powell Limited, 2010. All rights reserved.

futures. As Woody Allen observed, the world is run by those who turn up. And that could be you.

But how does all this help you? Unless your business is run by a visionary autocrat who is one of the elite who make the future, what can you do other than hang around until it happens and then catch up as fast as you can?

To find out more please contact design@seymourpowell.com