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Market Outlook

October 19, 2012

Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open flat to negative tracking negative opening
in most of the Asian markets which traced lower closing yesterday in US and
European markets. Investors are also watchful as a two-day European Union
summit got underway in Brussels, although expectations were low for any major
developments.
The US markets fell yesterday as Google Incs profit miss highlighted trouble in the
tech sector and a rise in jobless claims offset upbeat manufacturing data. A report
showed that jobless claims jumped to 388,000 (estimate 365,000) in the week
ended October 13 after falling to a four-year low of 342,000 in the previous week.
However, another report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicated
that its diffusion index of current activity jumped to a positive 5.7 in October from a
negative 1.9 in September, with a positive reading indicating an increase in
regional manufacturing activity.

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

1.0

Nifty

1.0

58.4

5,719

MID CAP

1.2

76.8

6,707

0.9

61.6

7,194

(0.3)

(22.8)

7,557

76.5

7,429

SMALL CAP
BSE HC

181.2 18,792

BSE PSU

1.0

BANKEX

2.1

271.9 13,308

AUTO

1.4

142.8 10,343

METAL

1.0

99.4 10,490

OIL & GAS

0.3

24.0

8,503

BSE IT

0.8

44.3

5,716

(Pts)

(Close)

Global Indices

Chg (%)

Dow Jones

(0.1)

Meanwhile the Indian markets rose firmly yesterday, helped by firm Asian cues
after a string of Chinese data beat estimates, raising hopes for a rebound in the
world's second largest economy.

NASDAQ

(8.1) 13,549

(1.0)

(31.3)

3,073

FTSE

0.1

6.1

5,917

Nikkei

2.0

176.3

8,983

Markets Today

Hang Seng

0.5

102.1 21,519

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,725 / 5,697 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,874 18,955 / 5,744 5,769 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,725 / 5,697 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,643 18,495 / 5,672 5,625 levels.

Straits Times

0.5

14.7

3,060

Shanghai Com

1.2

26.1

2,132

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

0.7

0.3

$44.4

Indian ADRs

WIT

(0.7)

(0.1)

$8.4

Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

IBN

(0.4)

(0.2)

$40.0

SENSEX

18,495

18,643

18,725

18,874

18,955

NIFTY

5,625

5,672

5,697

5,744

5,769

HDB

(0.6)

(0.2)

$37.1

News Analysis

Advances / Declines

2QFY2013 Result Review: Hindustan Zinc, Ambuja Cements, ACC, DB Corp,


Honeywell Automation India Ltd, Persistent
2QFY2013 Result Preview: TCS, ITC, Bajaj Auto, Exide Industries, South Indian
Bank, Alembic Pharma

BSE

NSE

Advances

1,727

989

Declines

1,125

521

146

84

Unchanged

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Volumes (` cr)

Net Inflows (October 17, 2012)

BSE

2,271

NSE

11,654

` cr

Purch

Sales

FII

2,140
272

MFs

Net

MTD

YTD

2,064

76

21,102

58,062

441

(169)

(3,100)

(10,384)

FII Derivatives (October 18, 2012)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Open Interest

Index Futures

1,557

1,521

36

15,649

Stock Futures

2,743

2,698

45

31,701

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Century Tex
JPPOWER

Price (`)

Losers

chg (%)

Company

Price (`)

chg (%)

403

5.7

Dish TV India

78

(3.2)

38

5.5

Wipro

346

(2.0)

Union Bank

209

5.0

Mphasis

397

(1.8)

Syndicate Bank

124

4.9

Sun Pharma

700

(1.7)

Andhra Bank

112

4.7

Bharti Airtel

266

(1.6)

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Result Review
Hindustan Zinc (CMP: `135 / TP: `144 / Upside: 7%)
For 2QFY2013, Hindustan Zincs (HZL) bottom-line was above our expectations
due to higher-than-expected other income and lower-than-expected tax rate. HZLs
net revenue increased by 8.8% yoy to `2,822cr (above our estimate of `2,733cr).
However, zinc production volumes declined 12.0% yoy to 163kt due to lower
production from Rampura Agucha mines (in line with companys guidance).
Nevertheless, lead production volumes grew by 60.0% yoy to 27kt and silver
production volumes grew 86.0% yoy to 92kt due to higher production from
Sindesur Khurd mine and new Dariba lead and silver capacities. However, the
EBITDA margin contracted by 529bp yoy (against our expectation of 580bp) to
51.3% mainly on account of lower zinc-lead realizations coupled with cost
increases. The EBITDA decreased by 1.2% yoy to `1,447cr. Further, other income
rose by 39.6% yoy to `540cr (higher than our estimate) while the tax rate was
lower at 14.9% in 2QFY2013 (19.5% in 2QFY2012). Hence, the net profit beat
our estimate of `1,348cr and grew by 12.5% yoy to `1,540cr. We maintain our
Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `144.
Y/E

Sales

March

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BVEV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E 12,446

52.3

6,027

14.3

20.5

9.5

1.8

5.2

2.7

FY2014E 13,538

52.9

6,568

15.5

18.9

8.7

1.5

4.0

2.1

Ambuja Cements (CMP: `204/ TP: - / Upside: -)


Ambuja Cements 3QFY2012 top-line rose by 20% yoy to `2,168cr, which was
slightly ahead of our estimates. The growth was driven mainly by higher
realization, as sales volume rose only marginally by 1.3% to 4.7mn tonne. The
OPM stood at 24.1% up 637bp, (vs an estimated 23.4%) aided by higher
realization. The bottom-line rose by 77% yoy to `304cr, which was in line with our
estimates, aided by superior operational performance. We remain Neutral on the
stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

RoE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Tonne*

Dec

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(US $)

CY2012E

10,074

25.4

1,712

11.2

20.3

18.2

3.9

10.6

181

CY2013E

11,619

24.9

1,915

12.5

20.5

16.3

3.5

9.0

Note:* computed on TTM basis

ACC (CMP: `1,420/ TP: - /Upside: -)


ACCs 3QCY2012 stand-alone top-line growth of 13.7% yoy to `2,445cr was
slightly ahead of our estimates of an 11.7% yoy growth. The top-line growth was
driven by a 17.3% yoy growth in realization, even as cement sales volume was
down by 5.1% on a y-o-y basis at 5.4mn tonne. The OPM rose by 415bp yoy to
18.8% slightly below our estimates of 19.3%. Although, the company benefitted
due to higher realization, it was negatively impacted due to higher freight, power
and fuel costs, which rose by 54% yoy and 8% yoy on a per tonne basis. The
bottom-line rose by 48% yoy to `249cr (vs an estimated `230cr), aided by superior
operational performance. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

RoE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Tonne*

Dec

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(US $)

CY2012E

10,802

21.6

1,445

76.9

19.4

18.5

3.5

10.0

138

CY2013E

12,256

21.5

1,546

82.2

19.1

17.3

3.1

8.4

Note:* computed on TTM basis

DB Corp (CMP: `222 / TP: Under review)


DB Corp has announced 2QFY2013 results. The company top-line performance
was in line with our expectations of 8% yoy growth to `378cr. The company
reported 3% yoy growth in advertising revenue to `283cr and 16% yoy growth in
circulation revenue to `70cr. The OPM expanded by 295bp to 22.8%. However,
adjusting EBIDTA for forex gain of 4.6cr, OPM expanded by 174bp to 21.5%.
Consequently, the net profit rose by 21% yoy to `47cr and profit adjusted for forex
gain rose by 9.4% to `44cr. At the current market price, DB Corp is trading at 16x
FY2014E consolidated EPS of `13.6. We recommend Buy on the stock with the
target price under review.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

1,604

22.3

205

11.2

20.3

19.6

3.7

10.7

2.4

FY2014E

1,786

23.8

250

13.6

21.4

16.0

3.2

8.8

2.1

Honeywell Automation India Ltd (CMP `2,644/ TP: `2,842/


Upside: 8%)
HAIL reported a healthy set of numbers with revival in the operating margin for
3QCY2012. The top-line grew by 5.5% sequentially to `408cr against our
estimation of `475cr. The companys EBITDA came in higher sequentially by a
whopping 109% at `28.5cr, far better than our estimate of `19cr. The operating
margin was higher by 346 basis points and came in at 7%. The improvement in
EBITDA was mainly on account of lower raw material cost as a percentage of sales
(due to current rupee appreciation) which was at 56.6% compared to 61.7% in the
last quarter. The net profit for the quarter stood at `11.8cr, in line with our
estimate of `21cr vis--vis `12cr in 2QCY2012, on the back of a better operating
performance. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target
price of `2,842 based on target PE of 21x for CY2013E.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROIC

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

Dec

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

CY2012E

1,847

4.3

61

69

12.5

38.4

3.4

26.9

1.2

CY2013E

2,162

7.3

120

135

23.4

19.5

3.0

13.4

1.0

Persistent (CMP: `428 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Persistent Systems (Persistent) reported its 2QFY2013 results which exceeded our
as well as the streets expectations on all fronts. The dollar revenues came in at
US$60.1mn, up 9.4% qoq, led by a strong growth in IP led revenue of ~49% qoq
to US$11.3mn. The companys EBITDA margin increased by 40bp qoq to 27.2%,
despite having a wage hike impact of ~330bp qoq which was a positive surprise.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

The operating margin improved on the back of increase in utilization level,


operational efficiency and higher growth in IP led revenues which has got higher
price points. The PAT stood at `45cr, up 7.4% qoq. The management sounded
confident that the company is expected to grow higher than Nasscoms estimates
of 11-14% in FY2013 which we believe is easily achievable keeping in view the
current quarters performance. The stock is currently under review and we will be
releasing a detailed result update shortly.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

FY2013E

1,207

FY2014E

1,278

PAT EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

26.2

170 42.4

17.1

10.1

1.7

4.1

1.1

24.3

177 44.2

15.5

9.7

1.5

3.9

0.9

(` cr)

Result Preview
TCS (CMP: `1,305 / TP: `1,405 / Upside: 8%)
TCS is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the company to
post revenue of US$2,830mn with 3.8% qoq growth. In rupee terms, revenues are
expected to grow by 4.5% qoq to `15,542cr. EBITDA margin is expected to decline
by 22bp qoq to 28.9% as the gains derived from INR depreciation will be offset by
increase in employee costs due to freshers joining and ramp up in projects from
emerging economies which generate lower margins. PAT is expected to be at
`3,371cr. TCS remains our preferred pick amongst Tier-I IT companies but current
valuations preclude us from taking a more favorable view in terms of good
absolute upsides.
Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

61,611

29.3

13,512

69.0

32.4

18.9

6.1

13.4

3.9

FY2014E

67,507

29.1

14,475

74.0

28.6

17.6

5.0

12.2

3.5

ITC (CMP: `291/ TP: - / Upside: -)


ITC is expected to post a 14.6% yoy growth in its top-line to `6,849cr. The growth
in the cigarette division is expected to be primarily due to price hikes as volume
growth in the division is expected to be marginal at ~1%. The FMCG business is
expected to post a healthy 17% yoy growth on the sales front. The companys OPM
is expected to come in at 34.5%, down marginally by 78bp yoy. The net profit is
expected to grow by 10% yoy to `1,665cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the
stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

RoE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

29,513

35.4

7,254

20.7

35.6

31.4

10.4

20.7

7.3

FY2014E

33,885

35.8

8,431

17.8

35.0

27.0

8.7

17.8

6.4

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Bajaj Auto (CMP: `1,774 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2013 results on October 20,
2012. We expect the companys top line to register a 6.8% yoy (flat qoq) decline to
`4,909cr mainly on account of 9.9% yoy (2.8% qoq) decline in volumes. Decline in
total volumes was led by weak demand in the domestic markets for motorcycles
and disruption in exports on account of increase in import duty on two-wheelers
and three-wheelers in Sri Lanka. On the operating front, EBITDA margin is
expected to contract by 190bp yoy led by adverse product-mix and reduced
operating leverage benefits. Thus, the bottom line is expected to decline by 7.5%
yoy (6.6% qoq) to `671cr. At the CMP of `1,774, the stock is trading at 14.6x
FY2014E earnings. Currently, we have a Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BVEV/EBITDAEV/Sales
(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

21,285

18.2

3,140

108.5

46.1

16.3

6.8

11.1

2.0

FY2014E

23,927

18.3

3,510

121.3

41.3

14.6

5.5

9.4

1.7

Exide Industries (CMP: `163 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Exide Industries (EXID) is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We
expect the company to post a strong revenue growth of 16.5% yoy (down 12%
sequentially due to lower OEM volumes) to `1,370cr driven by growth in the fourwheeler replacement and inverter batteries. While we expect EBITDA margins to
improve by 30bp sequentially to 15.3%; net profit is expected to decline by 11.7%
qoq to `134cr mainly on account of a sequential decline expected in the top-line.
On a y-o-y basis, the net profit is expected to jump significantly by 162.6% due to
the base effect. At the CMP of `163, the stock is trading at 17.7x FY2014E
earnings. Currently, we have a Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDAEV/Sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

5,913

16.0

628

7.4

19.1

22.0

3.9

12.6

2.0

FY2014E

6,787

17.0

780

9.2

20.3

17.7

3.3

9.9

1.7

(x)

South Indian Bank (CMP: `24/ TP: `25 / Upside: 7.6%)


South Indian Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We
expect the bank to report a healthy growth of 17.3% yoy in Net Interest Income
(NII) to `304cr. Non-interest income is expected to increase by 15.1% yoy to
`61cr. Operating expenses are expected to grow at 17.6% yoy to `171cr.
Provisioning expenses are expected to increase by a moderate 11.7% yoy to `27cr.
Net profit is expected to grow at 18.7% yoy to `113cr. At the CMP, the stock is
trading at 1.0x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on
the stock with a target price of `25
Y/E
March

www.angelbroking.com

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

RoA

RoE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

1,535

2.9

473

3.5

21.1

1.1

19.4

6.7

1.1

FY2014E

1,760

2.8

522

3.9

24.2

1.0

17.1

6.1

1.0

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Alembic Pharmaceuticals (CMP: `71/ TP: `91 / Upside: 28%)


For the 2QFY2013, Alembic Pharmaceuticals is expected to post a net sales and
profits of around `419cr and `34.7cr, registering a yoy growth of 5.7% and a
decline of 8.8%. The Sales growth would be impacted on back of lower growth in
exports. On the operating front, the OPM is expected to decline by 80bps, leading
to a decline in OPMs. The OPM for the quarter is expected to come in at around
14.2%. We maintain our buy on the stock with a target price of `91.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

EV/EBITDAEV/Sales
(x)

(x)

FY2013E

1,624

14.2

125

6.6

27.9

10.7

2.8

6.8

1.0

FY2014E

1,855

15.6

171

9.1

29.9

7.8

2.2

5.3

0.8

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate


Adani Power (19/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

Net sales

1,335

1,072

25

1,463

(9)

EBITDA

213

519

(59)

(120)

(278)

EBITDA margin (%)

16.0

48.4

Net profit

(263)

177

(249)

(793)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

701

588

19

774

(9)

EBITDA

496

411

21

632

(22)

EBITDA margin (%)

70.8

69.9

Net profit

335

273

23

418

(20)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,504

1,175

28

1,551

(3)

158

233

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

-8.2
(67)

Adani Ports & SEZ (19/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

81.7

Exide Industries (19/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA

232

90

EBITDA margin (%)

15.4

7.7

Net profit

155

51

204

152

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

6,884

5,974

15

6,652

EBITDA

2,538

2,219

14

2,368

36.9

37.1

1,754

1,514

15.0

ITC (19/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)

EBITDA margin (%)


Net profit

www.angelbroking.com

35.6
16

1,602

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Zee Entertainment - Consolidated (19/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

862

718

20

811

EBITDA

213

208

233

(9)

EBITDA margin (%)

24.7

29.0

Net profit

164

160

157

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

15,460

11,633

33

14,869

Net profit

3,357

2,231

50

3,072

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

4,836

5,046

(4)

4,714

EBITDA

906

1,057

(14)

872

EBITDA margin (%)

18.7

20.9

Net profit

723

726

(0)

718

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

28.7

TCS - Consolidated (19/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

Bajaj Auto (20/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

18.5

Ultratech Cement (20/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

4,619

3,910

18

5,075

(9)

EBITDA

990

652

52

1,308

(24)

EBITDA margin (%)

21.4

16.7

Net profit

579

279

108

778

(26)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

201

191

190

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,195

1,166

1,139

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,144

971

18

1,002

14

25.8

Federal Bank (20/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Bank of Baroda (22/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

HDFC (22/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Cairn India (22/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

4,542

2,652

71

4,440

EBITDA

3,522

2,065

71

3,457

77.5

77.9

2,799

763

EBITDA margin (%)


Net profit

www.angelbroking.com

77.9
267

3,826

(27)

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Idea - Consolidated (22/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

5,451

4,608

18

5,502

(1)

EBITDA

1,392

1,187

17

1,436

(3)

EBITDA margin (%)

25.5

25.8

Net profit

207

106

95

234

(12)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

13,213

11,245

18

11,955

11

1,304

1,174

11

1,087

20

EBITDA margin (%)

9.9

10.4

Net profit

892

798

26.1

Larsen & Toubro (22/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA

9.1
12

Economic and Political News

EGoM defers decision on spectrum refarming


Indian economy to grow 5.9% in 2012-13: UN agency
India-EU free trade pact may not conclude this year: IGCC
Land Bill to slow down projects further

Corporate News

Bharti Airtel launches 4G services in Pune


Cipla gets tentative US nod for HIV tablets
ED freezes `822cr fixed deposits of Mahindra Satyam
Voltas' all weather ACs beats Korean rivals
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

864

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Result Calendar
Date
October 19, 2012
October 20, 2012

Company
TCS, ITC, Mundra Port, Adani Power, Petronet LNG, Exide Industries, Zee Entertainment, South Ind.Bank, Blue Star,
NIIT, Alembic Pharma, Tata Sponge
Bajaj Auto, UltraTech Cement, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, J K Lakshmi Cements, Force Motors

October 21, 2012


October 22, 2012

HDFC, Larsen & Toubro, Cairn India, Idea Cellular, Bank of Baroda, Syndicate Bank, Indiabulls Fin.

October 23, 2012

Hero Motocorp, Sterlite Inds, Lupin, Yes Bank, United Phosphorus, Bank of Maharashtra

October 24, 2012


October 25, 2012

Adani Enterp., M&M, Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Nalco, Oriental Bank, Ipca labs, Bajaj Electrical, KPIT Cummins

October 26, 2012

NTPC, ICICI Bank, HUL, GAIL, Punjab Natl.Bank, Sesa Goa, IDFC, Dabur India, IOB, United Bank, Hind. Const.

October 27, 2012

IDBI Bank, Sarda Energy

October 28, 2012

JSW Steel

October 29, 2012

BHEL, Colgate, Styrolution

October 30, 2012

Maruti, Dr Reddy's, Grasim Inds, Mahindra Satyam, Thermax, Taj GVK, PVR

October 31, 2012

NHPC, Titan Inds., LIC Housing Fin., Tata Global, Aventis, TVS Motor

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

Country

Oct 19 2012 12:00AM US


Oct 23 2012 12:00AM Euro Zone
Oct 24 2012 12:00AM Germany

Event Description

Existing home sales


Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Services

Germany

PMI Manufacturing

US

New home sales

US

FOMC rate decision

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported

Estimated

Millions

Sep

4.82

4.74

Value

Oct A

(25.90)

(26.00)

Value

Oct A

49.70

50.00

Value

Oct A

47.40

47.90

Thousands

Sep

373.00

385.00

Oct 24

0.25

0.25

Oct 25 2012 12:00AM UK

GDP (YoY)

% Change

3Q A

(0.50)

--

Oct 26 2012 12:00AM US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

3Q A

1.30

1.80

Oct 30 2012 12:00AM US

Consumer Confidence

% Change
S.A./
1985=100
%

Oct

70.30

--

Oct 30

8.00

8.00

India

RBI Repo rate

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

Oct 30

4.50

4.25

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Oct 30

7.00

7.00

Thousands

Oct

9.00

--

Oct 31 2012 12:00AM Germany

Unemployment change (000's)

Nov 1 2012 12:00AM UK

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Oct

48.40

--

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Oct

49.80

--

Thousands

Oct

114.00

--

Oct

7.80

--

% Change

Sep

(1.20)

--

% Ratio

Nov 8

0.50

0.50

China
Nov 2 2012 12:00AM US
US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls


Unnemployment rate

Nov 6 2012 12:00AM UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

Nov 8 2012 12:00AM UK

BOE Announces rates

Euro Zone
Nov 9 2012 12:00AM China
China
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

ECB announces interest rates

Nov 8

0.75

--

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Oct

9.20

--

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Oct

1.90

--

Market Strategy
October 19, 2012

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)

10.0

8.0

9.2

9.0

8.5

9.0

8.2
7.6

7.5

8.0

6.0
8.0

6.0
6.7

7.0

6.1

5.7

5.3 5.5

5.0

2.0

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

(0.2)

(2.8)

(4.0)

(1.8)

(6.0)

(5.0)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)

Mfg. PMI

60.0

12.0

Services PMI

58.0

9.5
7.7

8.0

(1.3)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

9.9

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

1QFY10

4QFY09

1.0

Oct-11

(2.0)

10.0

2.7

2.5

3.5

3.0

6.9

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.8

56.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

Sep-11

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

48.0

Feb-12

0.0

Jan-12

50.0

Dec-11

2.0

Nov-11

52.0

Oct-11

4.0

Oct-11

54.0

6.0

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

60.0

(%)
9.00

45.0

8.00

30.0

7.00

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Repo rate

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
8.00
7.00

6.00
4.50

5.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

4.00

Sep-11

(30.0)

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

0.0

Sep-12

15.0

(15.0)

2.5

Oct-11

4.0

4.3
2.7

Sep-11

6.0

4.0

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

139

2,697

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

19.8

17.1

4.2

3.6

22.6

22.5

2.0

1.7

United Phosphorus

Buy

120

170

5,550

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

8.0

7.1

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Neutral

237

4,047

2,844

3,275

15.4

15.6

15.9

18.8

14.9

12.6

3.8

3.0

28.9

26.9

1.2

1.1

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

86

99

4,330

13,412

15,041

11.3

11.0

12.1

14.2

7.1

6.1

1.3

1.1

19.6

19.2

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

23

30

6,239

14,920

16,850

9.0

9.3

2.2

2.8

10.8

8.5

2.0

1.7

13.3

15.6

0.5

0.5

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

393

594

993

1,140

11.6

11.5

36.9

43.0

10.7

9.2

2.1

1.8

21.2

21.3

0.7

0.5

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

1,774

51,321

21,285

23,927

18.2

18.3

108.5

121.3

16.3

14.6

6.8

5.5

46.1

41.3

2.1

1.8

Bharat Forge

Accumulate

306

351

7,134

7,004

7,985

16.2

16.4

20.3

25.1

15.1

12.2

2.8

2.4

20.0

20.9

1.2

1.0

Bosch India*

Neutral

8,795

27,616

8,793

10,294

17.4

18.5

348.3

435.8

25.3

20.2

4.9

4.1

19.4

20.1

2.8

2.3

CEAT

Buy

119

164

406

4,989

5,634

8.7

8.5

32.7

41.1

3.6

2.9

0.5

0.5

15.8

16.9

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Neutral

163

13,830

5,913

6,787

16.0

17.0

7.4

9.2

22.0

17.7

3.9

3.3

19.1

20.3

1.9

1.6

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,809

3,007

1,505

1,768

17.5

18.0

111.2

132.7

16.3

13.6

3.4

2.8

22.8

22.2

1.7

1.4

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,840

2,077

36,733

24,941

28,706

15.0

15.5

122.5

134.0

15.0

13.7

6.6

5.2

49.6

42.2

1.2

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

109

135

449

7,517

8,329

6.1

6.3

26.2

38.5

4.2

2.8

0.5

0.5

13.4

17.2

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

837

944

51,363

37,434

42,860

11.6

11.5

50.4

56.3

16.6

14.9

3.5

3.0

22.6

21.5

1.2

1.0

Maruti

Neutral

1,379

39,848

41,796

49,350

7.6

8.6

66.6

92.6

20.7

14.9

2.4

2.1

12.0

14.8

0.7

0.6

Motherson Sumi

Neutral

151

8,859

24,285

27,317

6.7

7.2

8.1

10.6

18.7

14.3

3.9

3.2

22.9

24.7

0.5

0.5

Subros

Buy

30

34

180

1,230

1,378

8.8

8.6

4.5

5.7

6.7

5.3

0.6

0.6

9.8

11.8

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Buy

270

316

72,011 195,096 219,428

12.8

13.0

39.0

44.9

6.9

6.0

2.0

1.5

32.6

28.8

0.4

0.4

TVS Motor

Buy

41

49

1,945

7,611

8,443

7.9

7.9

4.7

5.4

8.7

7.6

1.5

1.3

17.9

18.1

0.2

0.2

ABB*

Sell

782

593

16,565

8,760

10,023

6.2

8.7

14.5

24.7

54.1

31.6

5.9

5.2

11.6

17.6

1.9

1.7

BGR Energy

Neutral

275

1,986

3,669

4,561

11.0

11.0

24.7

29.6

11.2

9.3

1.6

1.5

15.3

16.7

1.1

1.0

BHEL

Neutral

247

60,480

47,801

43,757

19.0

18.8

25.3

22.8

9.8

10.8

3.0

2.5

34.3

25.3

1.1

1.2

Blue Star

Neutral

207

1,863

3,047

3,328

5.4

6.9

12.5

16.2

16.6

12.8

4.0

3.3

26.1

28.2

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Accumulate

132

141

8,477

12,691

14,126

7.4

8.9

7.0

9.7

18.9

13.6

2.2

1.9

11.9

15.0

0.7

0.6

Jyoti Structures

Buy

49

54

406

2,622

2,744

10.7

10.5

9.6

12.2

5.2

4.1

0.6

0.5

10.8

12.3

0.4

0.3

KEC International

Accumulate

72

78

1,863

6,858

7,431

7.1

7.5

8.3

9.8

8.7

7.4

1.5

1.3

25.1

24.0

0.4

0.4

LMW

Neutral

2,060

2,320

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

14.4

12.4

2.4

2.2

17.4

18.4

0.5

0.4

Thermax

Neutral

565

6,738

5,514

5,559

8.9

10.2

26.9

30.3

21.1

18.7

3.6

3.2

18.4

18.2

1.1

1.0

Capital Goods

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,420

26,661

10,964

12,417

21.6

21.5

76.9

82.2

18.5

17.3

3.5

3.1

19.5

19.1

2.2

1.9

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

204

31,363

10,163

11,729

25.4

24.9

11.2

12.5

18.3

16.3

3.9

3.5

20.3

20.5

2.7

2.2

India Cements

Neutral

102

3,122

4,354

4,929

18.6

18.7

9.8

12.3

10.3

8.3

0.9

0.8

8.6

10.2

1.1

1.0

J K Lakshmi Cements

Neutral

117

1,431

1,964

2,278

19.5

20.4

16.3

17.9

7.2

6.6

1.0

0.9

14.7

14.6

0.9

1.2

Madras Cements

Neutral

188

4,482

3,608

3,928

27.6

27.0

15.7

18.3

12.0

10.3

1.9

1.6

16.9

17.0

1.9

1.6

Shree Cements^

Neutral

4,152

14,466

5,630

6,187

29.6

27.9

222.5

259.3

18.7

16.0

4.3

3.5

25.3

23.8

1.9

1.5

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

2,045

56,047

20,913

23,530

21.3

22.7

93.2

110.5

21.9

18.5

3.7

3.2

18.4

18.7

2.5

2.3

220

304

1,158

2,034

2,315

22.4

22.4

27.1

31.7

8.1

6.9

1.0

0.9

13.1

13.4

1.8

2.1

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

14

256

2,262

2,522

6.7

7.5

1.5

2.7

9.3

5.2

0.4

0.4

4.4

7.5

0.4

0.4

Hind. Const.

Neutral

18

1,086

4,239

4,522

9.9

11.2

(2.3)

(1.0)

(7.9)

(18.6)

1.0

1.1

(11.4)

(5.6)

1.2

1.2

IRB Infra

Accumulate

149

166

4,954

3,964

4,582

42.3

40.2

15.7

16.9

9.5

8.8

1.5

1.3

16.6

15.8

2.8

2.7

ITNL

Buy

184

232

3,575

6,840

7,767

26.4

26.1

24.4

30.3

7.5

6.1

1.1

1.0

16.0

16.2

2.7

2.9

IVRCL Infra

Accumulate

46

51

1,406

5,510

6,722

8.8

9.0

2.5

4.6

18.1

10.0

0.6

0.6

3.4

5.8

0.7

0.7

Jaiprakash Asso.

Accumulate

95

91

20,233

15,259

17,502

25.7

24.7

4.0

4.8

23.7

20.0

1.8

1.7

8.5

9.3

2.5

2.2

Larsen & Toubro

Accumulate

1,652

1,721

101,414

60,474

69,091

12.1

11.5

79.7

85.4

20.7

19.4

3.5

3.1

16.3

15.1

1.8

1.6

Madhucon Proj

Buy

34

56

253

2,206

2,502

10.7

10.7

4.6

4.7

7.4

7.3

0.4

0.4

5.2

5.0

0.7

0.7

Nagarjuna Const.

Neutral

50

1,279

5,804

6,513

8.0

8.6

3.0

3.5

16.4

14.3

0.5

0.5

3.2

3.6

0.6

0.7

Patel Engg.

Neutral

81

568

3,609

3,836

13.1

13.1

14.0

14.6

5.8

5.6

0.4

0.3

6.3

6.1

1.0

1.0

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

53

1,765

11,892

13,116

8.9

8.9

1.7

3.1

31.3

17.2

0.6

0.6

1.9

3.4

0.6

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

144

182

2,168

2,506

3,147

10.3

10.7

7.5

10.4

19.2

13.8

2.4

2.1

13.5

16.0

1.0

0.9

Simplex Infra

Buy

221

265

1,095

6,732

7,837

8.1

8.4

23.4

29.4

9.5

7.5

0.8

0.8

9.2

10.6

0.5

0.5

Allahabad Bank

Reduce

143

131

7,158

6,944

7,884

3.0

3.1

35.5

37.0

4.0

3.9

0.7

0.6

17.2

15.7

Andhra Bank

Reduce

Axis Bank

Buy

Bank of Baroda

Financials
112

97

6,270

4,929

5,633

3.1

3.1

23.7

24.5

4.7

4.6

0.8

0.7

16.6

15.3

1,203

1,328

49,878

15,686

18,687

3.1

3.2

116.8

138.0

10.3

8.7

1.9

1.6

20.0

20.2

Neutral

800

31,320

15,473

18,142

2.6

2.6

115.3

139.4

6.9

5.7

1.1

0.9

16.2

17.2

Bank of India

Accumulate

303

330

17,377

12,573

14,971

2.3

2.4

58.2

68.0

5.2

4.5

0.9

0.7

15.9

16.3

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

50

2,954

3,442

3,802

3.1

3.2

8.9

11.4

5.6

4.4

0.7

0.6

13.5

15.5

Canara Bank

Neutral

437

19,368

10,905

12,783

2.1

2.2

74.9

85.1

5.8

5.1

0.9

0.8

15.1

15.3

Central Bank

Neutral

77

5,668

7,095

8,102

2.5

2.7

15.6

21.0

4.9

3.7

0.8

0.7

12.2

14.7

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Corporation Bank

Accumulate

410

447

6,070

4,886

5,669

2.1

2.2

101.3

101.8

4.0

4.0

0.7

0.6

17.0

15.1

Dena Bank

Neutral

112

3,905

3,147

3,495

2.8

2.9

24.8

24.4

4.5

4.6

0.8

0.7

18.7

15.9

Federal Bank

Neutral

483

8,250

2,593

3,009

3.2

3.2

44.9

52.5

10.7

9.2

1.3

1.2

12.8

13.5

HDFC

Neutral

761

117,157

7,340

8,805

3.5

3.5

31.5

37.8

24.1

20.1

4.8

4.3

34.8

32.2

HDFC Bank

Neutral

635

150,039

21,696

26,811

4.4

4.5

28.7

36.0

22.2

17.6

4.2

3.6

20.7

22.0

ICICI Bank

Buy

1,065

1,245

122,415

22,304

26,855

2.9

3.0

68.6

82.0

15.5

13.0

1.9

1.7

14.2

15.6

IDBI Bank

Neutral

101

12,906

7,761

9,484

1.9

2.2

17.1

22.9

5.9

4.4

0.7

0.6

11.9

14.4

Indian Bank

Reduce

183

181

7,856

6,062

6,818

3.4

3.4

40.5

41.6

4.5

4.4

0.7

0.7

18.1

16.3

IOB

Accumulate

82

87

6,527

7,343

8,391

2.5

2.5

16.0

21.3

5.1

3.9

0.6

0.5

11.3

13.6

J & K Bank

Accumulate

1,164

1,021

5,641

2,600

2,850

3.6

3.5

192.3

188.0

6.1

6.2

1.2

1.0

21.0

17.7

LIC Housing Finance

Accumulate

252

301

12,702

1,867

2,338

2.4

2.4

21.1

28.5

11.9

8.8

2.0

1.7

17.5

20.4

Oriental Bank

Neutral

293

8,559

6,278

7,125

2.7

2.8

56.7

62.6

5.2

4.7

0.7

0.6

14.1

13.9

Punjab Natl.Bank

Accumulate

832

941

28,204

19,934

22,705

3.3

3.3

147.8

166.2

5.6

5.0

1.0

0.8

17.7

17.3

South Ind.Bank

Accumulate

24

25

3,152

1,535

1,760

2.9

2.8

3.5

3.9

6.7

6.0

1.1

1.0

19.5

17.1

St Bk of India

Accumulate

2,277

2,353

152,773

63,806

73,435

3.5

3.6

225.7

258.4

10.1

8.8

1.7

1.4

17.7

17.8

Syndicate Bank

Accumulate

124

117

7,458

6,722

7,719

2.9

3.0

24.3

27.2

5.1

4.6

0.8

0.7

17.0

16.8

UCO Bank

Neutral

79

5,248

5,411

6,124

2.4

2.5

17.0

16.5

4.7

4.8

0.9

0.8

16.7

14.4

Union Bank

Accumulate

209

226

11,531

9,924

11,647

2.8

2.9

38.6

46.3

5.4

4.5

0.9

0.7

15.4

16.3

United Bank

Buy

67

78

2,406

3,572

4,041

2.8

2.9

17.2

22.1

3.9

3.0

0.6

0.5

14.2

16.2

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

58

2,877

2,490

2,881

2.1

2.2

9.2

11.4

6.3

5.1

0.8

0.7

11.5

13.0

Yes Bank

Buy

389

452

13,853

3,270

4,253

2.8

3.0

33.9

42.2

11.5

9.2

2.4

2.0

23.1

23.6

3,924

37,638

11,198

13,184

16.3

16.3

121.0

144.8

32.4

27.1

10.9

8.6

37.4

35.3

3.3

2.8

491

584

5,863

5,835

6,824

5.7

6.0

20.7

25.4

23.7

19.3

9.3

7.2

43.1

41.9

0.9

0.7

1,244

16,911

3,018

3,429

20.9

22.2

35.7

42.3

34.8

29.4

32.2

23.9

101.0

93.5

5.3

4.6

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Neutral

Dabur India

Neutral

132

22,989

6,124

7,030

17.0

16.8

4.5

5.2

29.5

25.5

12.2

9.6

43.2

41.5

3.7

3.1

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

3,009

12,653

3,124

3,663

17.1

17.6

104.5

123.8

28.8

24.3

9.0

7.2

34.4

32.8

3.7

3.1

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

684

23,283

6,097

7,233

18.4

18.6

21.9

26.5

31.3

25.9

6.9

5.7

25.5

25.4

3.9

3.3

HUL

Neutral

576

124,451

25,350

28,974

13.9

13.9

14.3

16.5

40.4

35.0

24.0

18.5

70.9

59.8

4.4

3.8

ITC

Neutral

291

228,932

29,513

33,885

35.4

35.8

9.3

10.8

31.4

27.0

10.4

8.7

35.6

35.0

6.9

6.0

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FMCG
Marico

Neutral

206

13,259

4,840

5,643

13.1

13.1

6.8

8.5

30.3

24.3

8.4

6.4

31.4

29.7

2.7

2.2

Nestle*

Neutral

4,726

45,562

8,610

10,174

20.9

21.2

114.8

139.8

41.2

33.8

24.9

17.3

71.2

60.3

5.0

4.1

Tata Global

Neutral

162

10,021

7,207

7,927

9.7

10.0

6.6

7.8

24.5

20.7

2.5

2.4

8.6

9.5

1.1

1.0

HCL Tech^

Accumulate

601

648

41,697

24,214

26,772

19.5

18.1

44.0

48.0

13.7

12.5

3.2

2.7

24.0

22.0

1.6

1.4

Hexaware*

Accumulate

112

140

3,323

1,966

2,161

22.5

21.4

11.6

12.2

9.7

9.2

2.5

2.2

26.8

23.9

1.5

1.3

Infosys

Neutral

2,376

136,426

39,174

41,580

29.5

30.4

159.2

171.6

14.9

13.9

3.6

3.2

24.1

23.1

3.2

2.9

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

195

202

2,173

1,886

2,032

17.9

17.3

18.7

20.2

10.5

9.7

1.6

1.4

14.9

14.0

0.8

0.6

KPIT Cummins

Buy

117

142

2,085

2,191

2,364

16.1

16.5

11.3

13.0

10.4

9.0

2.3

1.8

21.8

20.0

1.0

0.8

Mahindra Satyam

Neutral

109

12,798

7,628

8,062

19.9

18.4

9.7

10.0

11.2

10.9

3.1

2.4

27.7

22.2

1.3

1.1

Mindtree

Accumulate

660

747

2,700

2,324

2,437

20.0

17.7

73.3

74.7

9.0

8.8

2.1

1.7

24.1

19.7

0.9

0.8

Mphasis&

Neutral

397

8,343

5,700

5,993

18.0

16.9

37.0

37.3

10.7

10.7

1.5

1.3

14.3

12.6

1.0

0.9

NIIT

Accumulate

34

36

567

1,034

1,146

9.9

11.0

5.2

6.4

6.6

5.4

0.8

0.8

12.8

14.3

0.3

0.2

Persistent

Neutral

428

1,711

1,207

1,278

26.2

24.3

42.4

44.3

10.1

9.7

1.7

1.5

17.1

15.5

1.1

0.9

TCS

Accumulate

1,305

1,405

255,456

61,611

67,507

29.3

29.1

69.0

74.0

18.9

17.7

6.1

5.0

32.4

28.6

3.9

3.5

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

940

1,046

11,993

6,603

7,196

18.2

17.1

92.7

99.6

10.1

9.4

2.4

1.9

23.6

20.5

1.9

1.7

Wipro

Accumulate

346

421

85,247

43,800

48,332

19.5

19.3

25.6

28.1

13.6

12.3

2.6

2.2

18.9

17.9

1.8

1.5

D B Corp

Buy

222

236

4,077

1,604

1,786

22.3

23.8

11.2

13.7

19.9

16.3

3.8

3.3

20.3

21.4

2.2

2.0

HT Media

Buy

98

113

2,303

2,111

2,272

15.0

15.2

7.4

8.3

13.3

11.9

1.4

1.3

11.3

11.4

0.7

0.6

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

102

112

3,234

1,488

1,664

22.7

22.8

6.2

7.1

16.4

14.3

4.0

3.6

25.2

26.3

2.1

1.8

PVR

Neutral

219

569

625

732

17.4

17.1

13.3

15.6

16.5

14.0

1.8

1.6

13.2

13.8

1.2

1.0

Sun TV Network

Neutral

363

14,288

1,981

2,239

77.0

76.7

18.6

21.3

19.5

17.0

4.9

4.3

27.1

27.5

6.4

5.5

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

500

10,619

11,979

14,584

31.6

31.0

49.2

61.4

10.2

8.2

1.3

1.2

14.1

15.2

2.9

2.4

Coal India

Accumulate

359

385

226,979

69,808

75,550

27.4

27.4

26.0

28.3

13.8

12.7

4.0

3.2

32.5

28.1

2.3

2.0

Electrosteel Castings

Accumulate

23

23

798

1,984

2,074

11.2

12.6

2.5

2.9

9.3

8.0

0.4

0.2

5.1

5.7

0.5

0.5

Hind. Zinc

Accumulate

135

144

56,957

12,446

13,538

52.3

52.9

14.3

15.5

9.5

8.7

1.8

1.5

20.5

18.9

2.7

2.1

Hindalco

Neutral

118

22,573

84,855

92,446

8.7

9.3

13.2

16.2

8.9

7.3

0.7

0.6

7.8

8.9

0.7

0.6

JSW Steel

Neutral

736

16,431

38,740

41,459

17.3

17.0

79.9

89.4

9.2

8.2

0.9

0.8

10.4

10.6

0.9

0.8

MOIL

Accumulate

251

271

4,212

918

993

50.7

50.9

24.5

26.1

10.2

9.6

1.6

1.4

16.0

15.5

2.3

2.0

Monnet Ispat

Buy

292

379

1,881

2,511

3,303

23.8

26.0

46.3

57.3

6.3

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

13.7

1.7

1.2

IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Metals & Mining


Nalco

Reduce

NMDC

Accumulate

50

48

12,848

7,401

7,841

16.7

19.2

3.4

4.1

14.6

12.2

1.1

1.0

7.4

8.4

1.3

1.2

186

214

73,922

12,934

14,266

79.4

80.1

21.1

23.4

8.9

8.0

2.4

1.9

29.6

26.5

4.1

3.4

SAIL
Sesa Goa

Neutral

82

34,015

47,252

60,351

14.2

14.8

9.6

11.7

8.6

7.0

0.8

0.7

9.4

10.6

1.2

1.0

Neutral

171

14,866

7,704

8,034

33.6

34.6

42.0

43.1

4.1

4.0

0.8

0.7

22.3

19.2

2.2

2.1

Sterlite Inds

Neutral

101

33,993

41,680

45,382

24.2

23.2

16.3

16.9

6.2

6.0

0.7

0.6

11.3

10.7

0.8

0.7

Tata Steel

Buy

412

481

39,980 145,799 150,431

10.3

11.2

48.6

63.3

8.5

6.5

0.9

0.8

10.5

12.4

0.5

0.5

Sarda

Accumulate

127

148

455

1,251

1,321

22.7

23.4

33.0

37.1

3.9

3.4

0.5

0.5

15.1

14.8

0.8

0.7

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

53

73

719

2,694

2,906

14.6

16.6

16.4

20.8

3.3

2.6

0.3

0.3

11.4

12.8

0.5

0.4

Buy

120

161

379

2,341

2,425

15.6

17.3

33.3

43.2

3.6

2.8

0.4

0.4

13.2

14.4

0.5

0.5

Cairn India

Accumulate

338

380

64,504

16,605

17,258

75.4

71.7

57.0

54.9

5.9

6.2

1.1

0.9

20.2

16.3

2.8

2.2

GAIL

Neutral

368

46,737

50,176

55,815

15.5

15.8

35.4

36.5

10.4

10.1

1.8

1.6

18.9

17.0

0.7

0.5

ONGC

Accumulate

279

312

238,613 147,139 154,821

33.9

33.7

30.7

32.3

9.1

8.6

1.6

1.4

18.3

17.2

1.4

1.2

Reliance Industries

Neutral

811

265,550 362,700 380,031

7.9

8.0

61.5

64.3

13.2

12.6

1.3

1.2

10.3

9.9

0.7

0.7

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

297

3,819

11.5

11.3

19.2

22.1

15.5

13.5

4.1

3.7

28.7

29.0

1.3

1.0

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

257

3,595

3,040

3,135

24.3

26.7

24.8

27.9

10.4

9.2

2.4

2.0

25.5

23.6

1.3

1.1

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Accumulate

167

176

12,540

29,145

33,736

6.6

6.6

14.2

16.0

11.8

10.5

2.8

2.3

26.9

24.4

0.4

0.4

81

4,530

1,041

939

91.8

91.9

8.5

7.4

9.5

10.9

1.6

1.5

18.1

14.0

5.2

5.8

Alembic Pharma

Buy

Aurobindo Pharma

Accumulate

Aventis*

Neutral

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

Cipla

Neutral

Dr Reddy's

Accumulate

Dishman Pharma

Neutral

3,811

3,228

71

91

1,331

1,624

1,855

14.2

15.6

6.6

9.1

10.7

7.8

2.7

2.1

27.9

29.9

1.0

0.8

159

156

4,626

5,243

5,767

14.6

14.6

11.8

12.6

13.5

12.6

1.7

1.4

17.9

16.4

1.3

1.1

2,193

5,050

1,482

1,682

15.5

15.5

95.1

104.4

23.1

21.0

4.1

3.2

18.6

17.0

3.5

3.0

867

953

17,755

6,148

7,386

18.6

19.6

36.0

46.1

24.1

18.8

5.7

4.6

25.8

26.8

3.1

2.6

363

29,158

8,031

9,130

23.4

22.4

18.4

20.0

19.7

18.2

3.3

2.8

17.8

16.6

3.6

3.1

1,694

1,859

28,755

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

20.2

18.2

4.2

3.5

22.4

20.8

2.9

2.6

Neutral

101

811

1,280

1,536

17.8

17.8

9.2

11.3

10.9

8.9

0.8

0.8

7.7

8.5

1.3

1.1

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

1,991

16,868

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

26.2

24.2

7.6

6.7

20.1

26.3

5.5

4.8

Indoco Remedies

Buy

66

92

612

685

837

15.2

15.2

7.4

8.9

9.0

7.5

1.4

1.2

16.4

17.0

1.1

0.9

Ipca labs

Neutral

460

5,796

2,850

3,474

20.7

20.7

29.2

36.6

15.7

12.6

3.7

2.9

26.1

26.1

2.3

1.9

Lupin

Accumulate

571

647

25,513

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

26.3

31.3

21.7

18.2

5.1

4.1

26.0

24.7

3.2

2.6

Orchid Chemicals

Neutral

111

781

1,667

1,835

13.9

13.9

11.4

13.3

9.7

8.3

0.6

0.6

6.6

7.3

0.9

0.8

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*

Neutral

550

23,206

12,046

11,980

18.0

15.8

31.3

29.8

17.6

18.4

6.0

4.8

39.1

28.9

1.9

1.8

Sun Pharma

Neutral

700

72,348

9,752

12,134

41.6

41.6

26.0

28.2

26.9

24.8

5.0

4.3

20.3

18.8

6.6

5.1

CESC

Neutral

331

4,130

5,218

5,644

24.2

23.8

44.6

47.6

7.4

7.0

0.8

0.7

11.0

10.6

1.6

1.6

GIPCL

Accumulate

NTPC

Neutral

Power
69

77

1,044

1,557

1,573

29.3

28.7

10.8

11.0

6.4

6.3

0.7

0.6

10.8

10.2

1.2

1.0

169

138,936

74,111

85,789

22.7

23.1

12.1

13.7

13.9

12.3

1.7

1.6

12.6

13.2

2.5

2.3

Real Estate
Anant Raj

Accumulate

79

78

2,340

657

875

52.0

56.1

8.4

12.7

9.4

6.2

0.6

0.5

6.3

8.9

4.5

3.4

DLF

Neutral

205

34,863

9,878

12,033

44.7

46.1

9.6

13.4

21.4

15.3

1.4

1.3

6.4

8.7

6.5

5.4

HDIL

Buy

106

115

4,420

2,441

3,344

55.1

48.2

22.7

26.6

4.7

4.0

0.4

0.4

8.8

9.4

3.5

2.7

MLIFE

Neutral

415

1,695

813

901

26.2

26.6

32.0

37.1

13.0

11.2

1.4

1.2

10.4

11.0

2.3

2.0

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

266

100,919

79,147

86,745

31.1

32.5

9.9

15.1

26.8

17.6

1.9

1.7

7.0

9.7

2.0

1.7

Idea Cellular

Neutral

81

26,818

22,582

24,684

26.4

26.9

3.3

4.7

24.4

17.2

1.9

1.7

7.8

9.9

1.7

1.5

Rcom

Neutral

62

12,735

20,650

20,935

32.3

33.0

4.2

5.8

14.6

10.7

0.3

0.3

2.3

3.1

2.3

2.1

Abbott India

Neutral

1,486

3,158

1,602

1,833

10.4

11.8

54.7

71.7

27.2

20.7

5.1

4.4

20.0

22.7

1.9

1.6

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

231

228

2,299

3,670

4,290

7.6

8.8

15.0

23.0

15.4

10.0

2.8

2.3

18.6

22.4

0.5

0.5

Cera Sanitaryware

Buy

376

388

475

396

470

16.7

16.6

31.0

35.0

12.1

10.7

2.7

2.2

24.8

23.0

1.1

1.0

Cravatex

Buy

465

682

120

289

340

5.2

5.9

41.0

57.0

11.3

8.2

2.9

2.2

25.2

26.5

0.5

0.4

CRISIL

Neutral

938

6,579

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

27.3

23.5

12.4

9.9

50.9

46.9

6.5

5.4

Finolex Cables

Buy

44

61

674

2,334

2,687

6.2

6.5

8.0

10.0

5.5

4.4

0.8

0.7

13.0

14.9

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

426

591

556

2,214

2,765

4.5

5.4

39.0

74.0

10.9

5.8

0.5

0.4

4.4

7.6

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India

Neutral

319

735

1,543

1,654

6.5

7.3

24.8

31.1

12.8

10.2

2.1

1.8

17.1

19.0

0.3

0.2

Disa India

Buy

2,994

3,353

452

176

203

22.7

22.6

182.5

209.6

16.4

14.3

8.5

6.7

51.8

47.1

2.2

1.8

Greenply Industries

Buy

249

309

601

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

8.4

5.7

1.4

1.1

16.8

21.0

0.5

0.4

Hitachi

Neutral

138

316

868

977

3.9

6.6

2.7

10.9

50.2

12.7

1.8

1.6

3.7

13.6

0.4

0.4

Honeywell Automation* Neutral

2,644

2,337

1,847

2,162

4.3

7.3

69.0

135.0

38.3

19.6

3.4

3.0

9.3

16.3

1.3

1.1

1,125

1,056

1,081

8.1

10.6

34.0

47.0

18.8

13.6

2.6

2.2

14.7

17.5

1.1

1.0

Telecom

zOthers

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

640

744

ITD Cementation

Neutral

240

277

1,451

1,669

12.3

12.4

32.4

41.5

7.4

5.8

0.7

0.6

9.4

10.9

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

175

2,818

1,248

1,468

9.8

10.4

5.9

7.2

29.5

24.4

4.2

3.9

15.0

16.6

2.5

2.0

MCX

Accumulate

1,396

1,440

7,118

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

22.4

19.4

6.1

5.3

27.5

27.4

8.9

7.4

MRF

Buy

10,197

12,884

4,325

11,804

12,727

10.4

10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3

7.9

7.1

1.5

1.3

21.3

19.4

0.5

0.5

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

3,426

731

821

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

3,821

887

1,108

18.3

18.6

95.0

120.9

36.1

28.3

18.8

15.3

57.4

59.5

4.0

3.2

878

1,019

1,208

12.3

13.0

51.0

68.4

14.3

10.7

3.8

2.8

30.3

30.2

1.0

0.8

zOthers
Page Industries

Neutral

Relaxo Footwears

Accumulate

Sintex Industries

Buy

73

79

1,989

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

5.3

4.6

0.7

0.6

12.9

13.2

0.8

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

293

392

274

1,042

1,173

12.4

12.5

66.3

78.5

4.4

3.7

0.9

0.7

21.1

20.8

0.5

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Buy

18

24

544

7,134

7,985

19.7

19.4

12.2

14.1

1.5

1.3

0.2

0.1

11.3

11.5

0.6

0.6

SpiceJet

Buy

36

43

1,734

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

9.9

6.7

14.4

4.6

0.4

0.4

TAJ GVK

Buy

76

108

475

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

9.6

8.3

1.3

1.1

13.9

14.4

1.8

1.5

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

322

377

495

787

837

16.2

17.5

58.5

66.9

5.5

4.8

0.8

0.7

14.9

15.1

0.3

0.2

TVS Srichakra

Accumulate

314

335

240

1,476

1,643

7.0

8.2

32.6

55.9

9.6

5.6

1.5

1.3

16.8

24.8

0.4

0.3

United Spirits

Neutral

1,268

16,585

10,289

11,421

13.5

14.3

31.0

42.9

40.9

29.5

3.2

2.9

8.1

10.3

2.2

2.0

Vesuvius India

Neutral

361

732

560

611

16.1

17.0

24.7

28.8

14.6

12.6

2.2

1.9

15.8

16.2

1.1

1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 18, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 19, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

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