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Complex
16 October 2012

Coverage
Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

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Iraq Mali Syria IED & Demining 1 2 3 4

This document provides complex coverage of global events from 09 15 October, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in the region, contact the members of the Complex Coverage Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org.

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Iraq

Linda Lavender linda.lavender@cimicweb.org

CFC publications are independently produced by Desk Officers and do not reflect NATO policies or positions of any other organisation.
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For further information, contact: Complex Coverage Team Leader Linda Lavender linda.lavender@cimicweb.org

Experts suggest that Iraq could be buckling under [international] pressure from all directions, as the Syrian conflict has placed Iraq in a diplomatic tug of war where the United States and Iran are seeking Baghdads support in addressing the crisis, reports BBC. Until recently, Iraqi Prime Minister Nour al Maliki has been careful to keep both Washington and Tehran appeased; however, the issues regarding the control of Iraqs airspace may force Iraq to choose an alliance. The US continues to request that Iraqi officials inspect all Iranian aircraft travelling through Iraqs airspace after a random search of Iranian cargo headed to Syria on 02 October was found by US officials to be unsatisfactory in addressing US security concerns. In turn, Iran has lodged a complaint that Iraq has violated international aviation agreements by conducting random inspections of its air cargo and has requested the practice be halted. As Maliki struggles to appease the US and Iran, the Iraqi prime minister visited Russia where he signed a massive USD 4.2 billion arms deal making Russia the second largest supplier of arms to Iraq and signalling to the United States that Iraq would not be solely reliant on the US for its defence. Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki called on NATO to stay out of Syria, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), stating on 10 October that Turkeys reports of cross border shellings from Syria were great exaggerations and accused the Turkish government of attempting to draw NATO forces into the conflict. Also during a recent trip to Prague on 11 October, Maliki told reporters that no arms were being smuggled across Iraqs shared border with Syria and indicated that Iraqi troops were stationed along the border to prevent the delivery of weapons to Syria, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP). Maliki urged countries supplying weapons to Syrian rebels to focus on positive solutions instead of arming the conflict and called upon Brahimi for quick diplomatic progress in Syria. International peace envoy to Syria,

Complex Coverage Desk Officer Angelia Sanders angelia.sanders@cimicweb.org

Lakhdar Brahimi, met with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki on 15 October to discuss the ongoing conflict in Syria, according to AFP. In other diplomatic events, the Iraqi cabinet has moved to create a committee to consider a prisoner exchange with Egypt, according to the Egypt Independent. The formation of the committee was seen positively by Egypts ambassador to Iraq, Sherif Kamal Eddin Shahin. In addition, the Iraqi Justice Ministry approved Egypts request to keep all Egyptian prisoners held in Iraq in three specifically designated prisons. The Turkish parliament brushed aside warnings from Baghdad to cease cross-border raids into northern Iraq and instead voted to allow the Turkish military to conduct operations against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, according to al Jazeera. Turkey has historically struck terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets in northern Iraq; the PKK uses bases close to the Turkish border in order to conduct hit-and-run attacks on Turkey. Iraq has tolerated Turkish military operations in the past; however, relations between the two countries have recently soured and may have an impact on future agreements. Seven people, including a judge and several security officers, were killed on 09 October in a series of attacks in central and northern Iraq on 09 October, according to AFP. Shootings and bombings in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul killed two people and wounded four others on 13 October, reported AFP. At least six people were killed in a series of gun and bomb attacks in northern Iraq that targeted security forces Awakening Council/Sons of Iraq - April 2009 on 15 October, reported BBC. Causalities from the 15 October attack included three police officers and two members of the Sunni-dominated, anti-al Qaeda militia known as the Awakening Council. Awakening Councils were crucial in assisting US troops in combatting Iraqs insurgency in 2006, as the Sunni tribesmen in the councils turned against al Qaeda and other extremists and backed Iraqi and US troops. Awakening Council members are frequently targeted by al Qaeda as they are considered to be traitors, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP). The Associated Press (AP) reports that al Qaeda is making a comeback in Iraq. Capitalising on regional instability and the Iraqi governments weak security, al Qaeda has opened training camps in the nations western deserts and has carried out a spate of attacks as evidenced by a marked increase in attacks over the past ten weeks. In other security news, Iraq has come to a USD 1 billion agreement with the Czech Republic to purchase twenty-eight L-159 fighter jets as part of Baghdads effort to rebuild the countrys airforce after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, reports ReuSource: Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction ters. The purchase of the fighter jets comes after increasing US pressure for Iraq to control its airspace by inspecting Syrian bound flights from Iran. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Iraq could become the worlds second-largest oil exporter, overtaking Russia, within two decades, reports The Guardian. Experts warn, however, that internal disputes over oil rights and inadequate investment in oil infrastructure could impact these projections. Meanwhile, Baghdad is considering replacing ExxonMobil with Russian oil companies at the supergiant West Quran-1 oilfield in southern Iraq after ExxonMobils recent signing of an oil agreement with Kurdish authorities in the north of the country, according to Reuters. The semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan signed oil deals earlier in 2012 with ExxonMobil, Chevron and French Total, contracts which Baghdad views as illegal and warned the oil companies of repercussions if they moved forward working with Kurdistan. Baghdad is considering allowing Russian LUKOIL and Gazprom Neft to take over operations from ExxonMobil.

Mali
Thousands of protesters marched in the Malian capital Bamako on 10 October in support of an armed intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to suppress armed militants in the North, reports Gulf News. In a unanimously adopted resolution (resolution 2071), the UN Security Council called on Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to immediately provide military and security planners to ECOWAS, the African Union (AU) and other partners to help develop a detailed plan within the next 45 days outlining how a military force will be used in Mali. Citing the threat to regional peace from terrorists and Islamic militants, the Security Council stated that it was ready to respond to the request of the Transitional authorities of Mali regarding an international military force assisting the Malian Armed Forces in recovering the occupied regions in the north of Mali. Furthermore, the Security Council called on Malian rebel groups to cut off all ties with terrorist organisations, such as Al Qaeda 09 October 2012

Angelia Sanders angelia.sanders@cimicweb.org UN Security Council Considers Mali Intervention

Source: Reuters

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in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its affiliates and demanded that all groups in the North cease human rights violations. During the European Unions (EU) Foreign Affairs Council meeting on 15 October, the EU welcomed the adoption of UN resolution 2071 and concluded that the situation in northern Mali poses an immediate threat to the Sahel region and those living there [] as well as to West and North Africa and to Europe. The Council also requested that work on planning a possible Common Defence Security Policy (CSDP) military operation be pursued and extended as a matter of urgency, in particular by developing a crisis management concept relating to the reorganization and training of the Malian defence forces. AQIM-linked Islamists threatened on 13 October to open the doors of hell for French citizens if France continued to push for a military intervention in Mali, reports Reuters. A spokesman for the Islamist group Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), Oumar Ould Hamaha, stated that the group would send pictures of dead French hostages in the coming days and that French President Francois Hollande will not be able to count the bodies of French expatriates across West Africa and elsewhere. Currently there are six French hostages held, four who were seized in northern Niger in 2010 and two who were seized in Mali in November 2011. Hollande dismissed the threats, saying that France would not alter its stance. The French President has also reaffirmed his country will provide assistance to ECOWAS with regard to logistics and training but will not commit any French troops towards a military intervention in Mali, reports United Press International (UPI). In an exclusive interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP), top US diplomat for Africa, Johnnie Carson, stated that Mali is facing four separate, but over-arching, problems-which makes it one of the most complex and difficult situations in Africa today facing resolution. These problems include: a lack of a democratic and credible government, the marginalisation of the Tuareg people, the food crisis caused by drought and political instability, and the security threat posed by Islamist militants. The United States has been reportedly encouraging the transitional government and interim president to move towards restoring democracy which would allow for a resumption of US funded programmes that were suspended following the March 2012 coup. The United States has also stated it supports an African-led military intervention and has not ruled out any direct US military intervention, though analysts believe support will likely be in the form of drones and intelligence-gathering support. Assistant UN Secretary-General of Human Rights Ivan imonovic cited the use of fear and drug money by radical Islamists to maintain control over northern Mali. According to the United Nations, Mali is a transit corridor for cocaine and other drugs from South America to Europe and Islamists use kickbacks received from narcotics-traffickers to buy loyalty and to pay families to enlist child soldiers. Mr. imonovic stressed that children are particularly vulnerable to attempts to enlist them as child soldiers, often to plant improvised explosive devices. In a country where many live on less than USD 1.25 per day, families are being offered USD 600 for child enlistment and then subsequent payments of USD 400 a month. There have also been reports of an increase in forced marriages, with the price of buying a wife less than USD 1,000. In some instances, these women are forced by their husbands to marry other men after a short time, a practice which is being termed by the United Nations as a smokescreen for enforced prostitution and rapes. Concluding a four-day visit to Mali, a top UN human rights official cited women as the primary victims under Sharia law in the North where it is now illegal for women to work. Former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi has been appointed as the UN Special Envoy for the Sahel region in West Africa, which includes Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and parts of Sudan, Cameroon and Nigeria, reports the United Nations. With an initial focus on Mali, Prodi will generate and coordinate international engagement and dialogue to address the political, security and humanitarian crises in the Sahel region. The takeover of northern Mali has created a security void in the Sahel region, which contributed to the kidnapping of six people in Niger and Chad on 15 October, reports Reuters. Those abducted included three local Nigerien staff working for the Nigerien medical charity BEFEN, a Chadian working for Alert Sante and two others. The identity of the kidnappers is unknown, as gunmen linked to AQIM have traditionally targeted Westerners for ransom payments. A security source told Reuters that measures had been taken to prevent the kidnappers from taking the hostages into Mali and Algeria.

Syria

Linda Lavender linda.lavender@cimicweb.org

Turkey deployed fighter jets to its southern border with Syria on 12 October responding to the presence of a Syrian helicopter, firing on the town of Azmarin only eight kilometres from Turkeys southwestern border, according to The Guardian. The incident underscores the escalating tensions between Turkey and Syria and signals Turkeys willingness to enforce a de facto no-fly zone inside Syrias border after Syrian officials agreed to keep its forces a distance up to ten kilometres from the Turkish border. Also, for the second time in a week, in what appears to be the enforcement of a new Turkish air blockade against the Syrian regime, Turkish officials searched an Armenian civilian airplane destined for Syria, reports CNN. Both Armenian and Turkish diplomats confirmed that the passenger plane stopped first in Turkey before proceeding to Damascus and appeared to be a planned inspection, agreed upon in advance by Armenian and Turkish officials. Earlier, on 10 October, Turkish fighter planes escorted a Syrian passenger airplane headed from Moscow to Damascus to land at the Ankara airport where Turkish authorities inspected the cargo for any non-civilian cargo, reports Reuters. Unconfirmed reports in Turkish media indicated that Turkish officials seized items including boxes of military communications equipment, according to BBC. Syrian officials denied there was any improper cargo aboard the Syria passenger air09 October 2012 Page 3

plane and accused Turkey of an act of air piracy, reports the Washington Post. In response to the Turkish inspection policy, Syrias government has banned Turkish passenger flights over its territory effective 13 October, reports BBC. However, The Guardian indicates that Turkey had voluntarily stopped using Syrian airspace months earlier citing security concerns. A classified report presented to US President Barack Obama and other senior officials concluded that the majority of weapons secretly shipped to Syria by Saudi Arabia and Qatar are falling into the hands of hardline Islamic rebel groups, reports The New York Times. As a result, Central Intelligence Agency director, David Petraeus, travelled to Turkey in September 2012 in an effort to better organise the supply effort to rebel fighters. Petraeuss reported objective was to oversee the process of vetting, and then shaping, an opposition that the US thinks it can work with. Syrian rebels reported they had captured more than 250 government armed forces in Idlib province after rebels drove out the Syrian forces from Az Zainiyeh on 10 October, reports al Jazeera. Also, activists report that rebels have taken the offensive, killing over 100 Syrian soldiers in two days and opposition fighters also indicated they had taken control of a government military site in Aleppo on 12 October, according to AFP. Finally, rebels claim to have shot down a Syrian jet fighter over western Aleppo on 13 October, according to The Telegraph. Turkeys Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticised the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) at a conference in Istanbul for its failure to intervene in the Syrian conflict, according to The Guardian. Erdogan called for reform of the UNSC, which he described as an unequal and unfair system that failed to reflect the will of most countries, according to AP. Meanwhile, Qatars Foreign Minister Khalid Bin Mohammad al Attiyah called upon the United Nations to move quickly to assist rebel forces in Syria with weapons and funding while also implementing a no-fly zone that would provide protection to civilians caught in the violence, according to AP. In Lebanon, Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, appealed to President Michel Sleiman and top Shiite political and religious figures on 11 October to intercede with Hezbollah over the organisations alleged involvement in the Syrian conflict, according to the Daily Star. Siniora indicated that there were wise leaders within Hezbollah and the Shiite community who reject the partys drift toward military involvement in the fighting in Syria and could be the voices of reason. The UN-Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi has called for a ceasefire in Syria for the upcoming Muslim holiday of Eid al Adha, according to al Jazeera. Also, Brahimi indicated that while meeting with Iranian officials on 14 October, a proposal was presented that would allow for political transition. The plan, however, calls for the process to be supervised by Syrian President Bashar al Assad and Irans Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdolahian, a scenario that is likely to be unacceptable to the Syrian Opposition. On 15 October, the European Union adopted additional economic sanctions against Iran for its refusal to engage in nuclear programme talks and placed additional asset freezes and travel bans on 28 Syrians and 2 companies, according RFE/RL. The Syrian measures target individuals linked to violence against protestors and companies involved in supplying equipment used by the regime to repress Syrians. Al Jazeera reports that anti-government demonstrations continued to be Death Toll in Syria (as of 13 Oct 2012) held across the country after weekly Muslim prayers. Government forces fired on protesters in the Halab al-Jadida district of Aleppo, wounding a number of demonstrators, reports the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Human Rights Watch (HRW) reports that Syrian forces have used Russian made cluster bombs on populated areas in its efforts to push back rebel advancements along the countys strategically crucial north-south highway, according to The Guardian. HRW posted a film on the Internet showing bomblets from the cluster munitions in Idlib, Homs, Aleppo and Latakia provinces. The Turkish disaster agency (AFAS) reported on 15 October that the number of Syrians fleeing violence and seeking refuge in Turkey has now reached 100,363 and called upon European countries for more assistance in addressing the Syrian refugee crisis, according to AFP. Jordan, already hosting more than 85,000 registered Syrian refugees (with another 36,000 awaiting processing) plans to Source: Syrian Revolution Martyr Database as of 13 Oct 2012 set up a new refugee camp west of its capital, reports AFP. The current Zaatari camp population is at 30,000 and can only accommodate 45,000 refugees. The new camp in the Mrigeb al Fuhud region, 50 kilometres west of Amman, will be 13,000 acres according to Jordanian officials. Jordans Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh has said that the number of Syrians in Jordan is upwards of 200,000, many unregistered with UN agencies out of fear of reprisals from the Syrian government. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reported on 12 October the agency was prepared for assisting refugees over the Syrian winter but expressed concern for those continuing to live in Syria where access is near impossible, according to the Daily Star. By December 2012, UNHCR expects there to be upward of 700,000 refugees resulting from the Syrian conflict. AFP reports that at least 33,082 people, mostly civilian, have been killed in the protracted conflict. However, these numbers are only estimates, cautions Rami Abdel Rahman from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Rahman states that when the conflict ends and a full assessment is undertaken, the death toll may well turn out to be higher than our reports show.

09 October 2012

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IED & Demining

The CFC now publishes a weekly IED and Demining Events map. This global compilation identifies and links to articles pertaining to IED events as well as demining efforts. GLOBAL NEWS Syria - A brief statement by the Syrian military denied that it was using Russian cluster bombs in civilian locations, reports Reuters. However, a report released by Human Rights Watch asserts government forces dropped the Russian-made cluster bombs by helicopter and planes in civilian areas. China Public access will soon be granted to a deserted nuclear experiment site where more than fifty years earlier, Chinese scientists worked to develop the countrys first atomic bomb, according to Associated Press of Pakistan. Approximately USD 945 thousand have been allocated to turn the Malan Base into a tourism sight where labs and dormitories used by the nuclear scientists will be preserved.

Linda Lavender linda.lavender@cimicweb.org

Afghanistan - Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko released a letter on 11 October telling generals that an Afghan contractor who was to install 125 IED warning systems along strategic highways left the work incomplete or poorly installed. The installation failures have increased the risk of IED attacks against US forces operating in Afghanistan, reports the Associated Press (AP). For more IED & Demining news click here or click on the map above.

Syrian Opposition

IRAQ Complex Coverage

MALI Complex Coverage

SYRIA Complex Coverage

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09 October 2012

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