Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 20, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 20, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Chinese team to visit India to verify safety of rapemeal
An official delegation from China is expected to visit India to inspect rapeseed extraction units. After inspecting the units, the Chinese team will certify them as ones that produce products that are safe for consumption by humans and other living beings. The visit is in connection with China banning the import of Indian rapeseed meal in January after it was found that some consignments were contaminated with malachite green, a dyestuff used for marking jute bags. Malachite green is an organic compound that is used as a dyestuff and is feared to cause cancer if the level exceeds stipulated norms. Following the Chinese ban, exports of rapeseed meal from India to its largest neighbour have come to a standstill, affecting overall export volumes in the first half of the current fiscal. Rapeseed meal exports from India during AprilSeptember 2012 were down by 41 per cent to 4.29 lakh tonnes against 7.33 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period last year. The market for Indian rapeseed meal in China is estimated at over Rs 700 crore. The drop capped gains that rapeseed farmers could have made when global oilseeds and vegetable oil prices flared up during June-September.
(Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Oct 19, 2012

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18682 5684 53.85 90.05 1723

-0.58 -0.60 0.47 -2.23 -1.18

0.04 0.14 1.96 -1.97 -2.00

0.76 1.32 -0.07 -6.80 -2.54

9.73 11.06 9.99 4.25 2.82

Source: Reuters

Modification in the near month applicability for Refined Soy Oil

Attention of Members is drawn to our circular dated August 8, 2012 wherein the applicability of the near month limit for Refined Soy Oil contracts (Symbol: SYOREFIDR) was changed to 1st of every month in which the contract is due to expire. If 1st happens to be a non-trading day, the near month limits would start from the next trading day. The above mentioned changes were made applicable for all contracts expiring in January 2013 and thereafter. Members are requested to note that, as per the Bye-laws, Rules and Regulations of the Exchange and with the approval of the Forward Markets Commission, the above mentioned change is made applicable for the contracts expiring in November 2012 and December 2012 as well. (Source: NCDEX )

Court asks Spices Board to resume cardamom auction

The Kerala High Court on Friday asked the Spices Board to resume cardamom auctions that were not held for over three weeks now following a decision to raise the minimum bidding rate from Rs 0.50 to Rs 5 by the Board. In its direction, the Court told the Board to cancel the licences of those auctioneers/traders who are not participating when the auction is resumed. The Court has given the direction on a petition filed by a group of growers praying for resumption of the auction. The petitioners agreed to the minimum bidding rate recommended by the expert committee, constituted by the Spices Board. The traders are also understood to be ready to accept Re 1 as the minimum bidding rate instead of Rs 0.50. A meeting of farmers would be convened on Sunday to work out the future strategy, he said. Meanwhile, P.T. Thomas Idukki M.P. is reported to have requested the Union Commerce Minister in a letter to amend the relevant portions in the Act regarding cardamom auction so as to enable the growers to sell their produce directly on the open market instead of at the prevailing auction system.
(Source: Business Line)

Abolition of duty will make raw sugar imports sweet for refiners
After exports scaled a four-year high in the year through September, refiners are exploring new opportunities to buy raw sugar from overseas as the government mulls scrapping a tax on imported raw sugar, senior trade and industry executives said on Friday. Mills and cooperatives in Maharashtra, the country's biggest producer, could gain as much as 13% if they import raw sugar at zero duty and sell it in the domestic market after refining it, without having to rely on local cane supplies, they said. At Friday's price, the cost of Brazilian sugar at Mumbai port would be around R27,229 per tonne, including a landing charge of 1%. After factoring in transportation, refining and other charges, the cost of white sugar production from the imported raw would be to the tune of R31,000 per tonne, compared to the current mill-gate price of R35,000 a tonne, the executives said. (Source: financial Express)

Monsoon sets in over South

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared that the NorthEast monsoon has commenced over south peninsular India on Friday. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been receiving consistent showers over the past few days. The 24 hours ending Friday morning saw rainfall or thundershowers being reported occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Many places over Andaman Nicobar Islands and a few places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh also witnessed wet spells. Afternoon cloud imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds extensively over the south peninsula and adjoining seas. (Source: Business Line)

Wheat Production Dips In Argentina to 11.5MMT

Wheat production in Argentina is set to dip by 17 percent this year from last year as farmers shifted to other lucrative crops. Curb on export by govt. discouraged farmers. Wheat production in Argentina may drop to 11.5 million tonne. This means importers would not be able to get ample wheat from Argentina. Crop size in Russia, Australia and US has been reduced and total world supply is expected to be lower than last year.It may boost wheat price in global market.Area coverage under wheat in Argentina is 3.7 million ha. lower by 20% from last year.(Source: Agriwatch)

Wheat export from India is bound to increase

Wheat export from India is likely to increase in the years ahead as buyers from west Asia and southeast Asia are turning to India.India is in a position to export 5 to 6 million tonne per year without having any adverse impact on domestic supply.Currently,central pool stock is much more than actual requirement(43.15 million T against 14.2 million T as on 1st Octobe)r.This means India has almost 29 million tonnes surplus wheat right now.Wheat sowing is about start and we expect bumper crop once again as weather remains favourable throughout the major growing regions.Based on preliminary feedback from farmers over 90 million tonnes wheat production seems very much on the card.So supply side is expected to remain ample even with better pace and quantity of export.Lower export volume can pose storage problem especially when wheat procurement starts in April. (Source: Agriwatch)

Chilli prices slump on low demand, exports

Chilli prices are looking weak due to good carryover stocks and improvement in the southwest monsoon in the second half. India is the leading producer of chilli, contributing close to 45 % of the global supply with an annual production of 13-14 lakh tonne. Production of chilli is good in Bangladesh and Pakistan and exports to these countries are lower, he said. Chinese production is also on the higher side and giving competition in the global market, he added. Export of chilli is a key factor in pricing of the commodity. Higher exports always translate into higher domestic prices due to the lesser availability of the commodity
(Source: Financial Express)

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 20, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana November futures extended the gains during the early part of the session on Friday, however, settled lower towards the end, on short coverings. Chana sowing has started in some parts of Maharashtra, AP and Karnataka and is expected to commence soon in MP and Rajasthan too. In AP, chana acreage stood at 41000 hectares as on 17 October, 2012 compared with 98000 hectares during the same period last year. Prices have gained considerable since the beginning of October amid festive season buying and lower supplies caused by lower output in 2011-12 season. CACP has recommended a hike in minimum support price (MSP) of gram by Rs.200 to Rs.3000 a quintal and Masoor by Rs.100 to Rs.2900 a quintal for upcoming 212-13 Rabi season to boost the production of pulses. As per the NCDEX circular dated 1 October, Special Margin of 10% (in cash) on the Long Side on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Chana have been withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Thursday, October 04, 2012. Good rains in the month of August and September has raise prospects of Rabi pulses sowing in the coming days. Monsoon has recovered across India, especially in Rajasthan, one of the major chana growing states, and may prove beneficial for the chana sowing.
st th

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4715 4932 Prev day 0.55 1.40

as on Oct 19, 2012 % change WoW MoM 3.41 2.80 3.81 12.27 YoY 38.28 47.62

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

According to the Ministry of Agriculture 99.81 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses as on 21th September, 2012 compared to 108.28 lakh hectare (ha) same period last year. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. According to the Fourth advance estimates of 2011-12 season, Pulses output is pegged at 17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year 2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83 million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch)

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Oct Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Oct 20, 2012 Resistance 4880-4925

4722-4770

Outlook
Chana futures are expected to trade with positive bias on account of festive season demand and tight supplies. However, reports of higher sowing of Rabi pulses this season might pressurize the prices in the medium term. Although short term trend remain positive for chana, we expect prices to come under downside pressure in the month of November as supply pressure may ease amid shipments from Australia and Canada.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 20, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures declined further on Friday on account of higher non levy quota of 40 lakh tn for the month of October and November to meet the festive season demand. Further, food ministry is keeping a close watch on sugar sales by millers in the open market and warned against failure to sell the entire quota allocated to them for the October-November period. India, which is likely to produce a sugar surplus for its third year in a row, has decided to allow exports for another year, Food Minster K.V. Thomas said, reflecting confidence about domestic supplies in the world's top consumer of the sweetener. Mills and traders will have to wait for a formal order to export sugar in the new season that began on Oct. 1. Millers based in western and southern India and global trading firms bought sugar at around $500/ton a CIF basis, as the price in the domestic market has jumped more than 23% to $680/ tn in the past three months. Liffe white sugar and ICE raw sugar closed 1.28% and 2.22% higher respectively on account of short coverings. Prices have corrected over the last couple of days due to good supplies from Brazil. Higher output and lower imports expectations for the 2012-13 season from China coupled with weak international markets is keeping prices under downside pressure.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3763

as on Oct 19, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.96 1.89 MoM -1.55 YoY 19.47

Rs/qtl

3389

-0.79

-0.32

-5.34

18.17

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeDec'12 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 547.9 449.56

as on Oct 19, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 1.28 2.22 -1.15 1.91 MoM -0.74 6.70 YoY -24.52 -25.35

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Nov contract

Domestic Production and Exports

The area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88 lakh ha for 2012-13 crop season, up from 50.99 lakh ha on same period a year ago. According to the first advance estimates by agriculture ministry, Sugarcane output is pegged at 335.3 mn tn, down by 6.2% compared to 357.6 mn tn last year. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Sugar production in India the worlds second-biggest producer touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Unit Rs./qtl

valid for Oct 20, 2012 Support 3265-3280 Resistance 3310-3325

Global Sugar Updates

Sugarcane harvesting in Brazil was down 7.9% as on 1st October 2012 at 24 mn tn. Unica expects the main center-south cane to yield 32.7 mn tn sugar output in 2012-13, down 1.2 % from the 33.1 mn tn forecast in April. Favorable weather in the second half of September should allow harvest and exports to run on schedule despite a couple of days of rain last week that slowed crushing. Thus sharp upside in the international prices may be capped. The International Sugar Organization said it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)

Sugar Oct NCDEX Futures

Outlook
Sugar prices may remain under downside pressure as higher quota is offsetting festive season demand. Approval to unrestricted exports may benefit India only if the global sugar prices gain considerably. However, supply pressure from Brazil is keeping international sugar markets under downside pressure.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 20, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures extended the gains of the previous
session on reports of improved soymeal export demand along with festive season demand for edible oil.. Also, farmers were not ready to sell their produce at lower levels. The Futures settled 3% higher and spot closed 2.37% higher. New soybean arrivals at MP stood at 450000 bags, Maharashtra170000 bags and Rajasthan 100000 bags on Wednesday. Arrivals are expected to improve to 6-6.5 lakh bags in MP in the coming weeks. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 126.2 lk tn for 2012-13. However, drop in area under groundnut, sunflower & castor seed may lead to lower output of these oilseeds in 2012-13 which is estimated 9.6% lower at 187.8 lakh tn. CBOT Soybean settled lower by 0.73% on account of macroeconomic worries. Also the weekly export sales data was lower than the expectations. Some bargain buying was seen after the prices reached a 3 month low have supported the prices. According to the latest crop progress report released by USDA, as on 16 Oct 2012, US soybean harvest is 71 per cent complete as compared to 58 per cent last week and 58 per cent compared to 5 year average. According to the USDA October monthly report, Global soybean production is projected at 264.3 million tons, up 6.2 million mostly due to an increase for the United States. Ending stocks are seen down from 169 million bushels in 2011-12 to 115 million bushels in 2012-13 season. Brazil could churn out 81 million tonnes of oilseed and replace the drought-stricken US as the world's top soybean producer, according to the USDA.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Oct'12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3238 3260 683 673.5 Prev day 2.37 3.00 1.43 0.21

as on Oct 19, 2012 % Change WoW 1.31 1.20 1.20 0.98 MoM -18.99 -5.66 -12.03 -5.33
Source: Reuters

YoY 48.87 49.07 9.28 8.81

as on Oct 19, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTOct '12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1534 51.58 Prev day -0.73 -1.38 WoW 0.77 3.39 MoM -8.10 -7.61
Source: Reuters

YoY 25.24 0.19

Crude Palm Oil

as on Oct 19, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 0.33 1.48 -0.12 0.66

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Oct '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Oct '12 Futures

Last 2404 425.8

MoM -11.13 -11.33

YoY -16.53 -12.35

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO settled higher on
Friday amid lower level buying. Also, festive season demand for the oil along firm international market supported the upside. Ref soy (Nov) closed 1.66% higher while MCX CPO closed 1.48% up. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-15 rose 13.1% to 769,534 tn from 680,112 tn for the Sept. 1-15 period. Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer of palm oil, will scrap a tax free export quota for the crude grade from 2013 in a bid to reduce feedstock prices for refiners who have lost market share to top supplier Indonesia. According to latest data from SEA, total vegetable oil imports in September were 993,912 tn, up from 897,018 tn in the previous month. India imported 111,163 tn of refined palm oil in September. As per MPOBs latest report, Malaysia's September palm oil stocks rose 17 percent to record high 2.48 million tons compared to previous month. Moreover, crude palm oil output in September rose 20 percent from August to 2 million tons. Indias edible oil imports should rise 5.4 percent to a record 10.31 million tonnes in 2012/13, with the entire increase met by palm oil.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4250 4173 Prev day -0.58 -0.52

as on Oct 19, 2012 WoW 1.19 2.30 MoM 2.41 2.23

Source: Reuters

YoY 44.07 37.54

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Nov contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard spot as well as futures settled

lower by 0.58% and 0.51% due to profit taking at higher levels. Also, prospects of better sowing have pressurized the prices. Mustard output was lower in 2011-12 and thus this has led to tight supplies in the domestic markets. However, on the back of higher returns and improved rains, next years output is expected to be better. Outlook Edible oil complex is expected to trade on a positive note today due to festive demand. Also, the prices may take cues from the strong international markets.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Oct NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Oct Futures CPO MCX Nov Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Oct 20, 2012 Support 666-672 3220-3265 4125-4175 425-429 Resistance 688-694 3350-3390 4260-4288 438-442

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 20, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper futures traded on a positive note yesterday on the back of festive demand. Arrivals of the new green pepper crop as well as expectations of improvement in the yield have pressurized the prices in the spot markets. Farmers are also unwilling to sell their stocks at lower levels. Traders are buying pepper directly from the farmers. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets remains weak due to huge price parity. The Spot as well as the November Futures settled 0.03% and 0.55% higher respectively on Friday. th According to the circular released on June 13 2012 the existing Special margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of day Friday June 15, 2012. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,550/tonne(C&F) while Indonesia Austa is quoted at $6,850/tonne (FOB). Vietnam was offering 550GL at $7,000/tonne. As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts. (not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 42294 43305 % Change Prev day 0.03 0.55

as on Oct 19, 2012 WoW -0.63 -1.28 MoM 0.46 0.03 YoY 25.90 30.97

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Nov contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is estimated around 80,433 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Oct Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Oct 20, 2012 Support 43100-43300 Resistance 43750-43960

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 20 tonnes while offtakes were 30 tonnes on Friday. Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to continue to trade on a positive note today. Festive season demand is expected to support prices at lower levels. However, low export demand as well as good supplies in the international market from other origins may cap sharp gains.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 20, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera November Futures traded in a rangebound manner, but corrected towards the end on account of profit booking. Reports of good export enquiries have supported the prices. Arrivals were also low. Over the last couple of days, exporters have been actively buying due to escalated tensions between Syria and Turkey. Also, festive demand in the domestic markets is reported to be good. Good rains in Gujarat, have increased expectations of better sowing prospects ahead of the rabi sowing and have restricted sharp gains in the spot markets.. The spot settled 0.3% higher while the November Futures settled 1.14% lower on Friday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Around 4-5 lakh bags of Jeera are reported across India. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,770 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 4-5 lakh bags lower by around 3 lakh bags last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Oct'12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 15171 15198 Prev day 0.30 0.88

as on Oct 19, 2012 % Change WoW 4.09 6.93 MoM 3.89 11.58 YoY 6.22 15.77

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Nov contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 5,000 bags, while off-takes stood at 5,000 bags on Friday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.02 0.04

as on Oct 19, 2012 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5021 5136

WoW -3.06 -6.17

MoM -15.80 -9.32

YoY -10.26 6.20

Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to trade on a positive note today. Reports of fresh export buying may support prices. Festive buying may also lend support to the prices. However, expectations of improved sowing may cap sharp gains. In the medium term (October-November 2012), prices are likely to witness a bounce back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Nov contract

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded in a rangebound manner yesterday as demand from the stockists pressurized prices while removal of the special margin on the long side supported the prices. Turmeric has been sown in 0.58 lakh hectares in A.P as on 10/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot as well as the November Futures settled 0.02% and 0.27% lower on Friday. Special Margin of 20% (in cash) on the Long Side in Turmeric November 2012 and December 2012 expiry contracts will be withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Saturday, Oct 20, 2012.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 4,000 bags and 800 bags respectively on Friday. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 201011. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Oct Futures Turmeric NCDEX Oct Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

valid for Oct 20, 2012 Support 15100-15300 5120-5170 Resistance 15640-15800 5290-5380

Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to trade sideways today. A reduction in the special cash margin, lower sowing figures and lower arrivals may support prices. However, stockists are not buying actively, which may pressurize prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 20, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas futures on Friday settled down by 0.66% on the back of profit taking after gaining in the past few sessions. After witnessing and upside rally for past few sessions ICE cotton Futures closed down on Friday and settled marginally down by 1.08% on account of profit booking. Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 28% is harvested as compared to 21% a week ago, versus 34% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 42% in Good/Excellent state same as compares to last week, and 30% same period a year ago as on 16 Oct 2012.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 972.5 16460

as on Oct 19, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.56 4.40 -0.66 2.94 MoM 8.12 2.94 YoY -5.94

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 76.88 81.35

as on Oct 19, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.08 6.28 0.00 0.00 MoM 2.67 0.00 YoY -21.50 -29.20

Domestic Production and Consumption

As on 28 September, 2012, Cotton is being planted on 114 lakh hectares, down, as compared to the last years 119.6 lakh hectares. However, the acreage so far is at par with its normal area of 111.8 lakh hectares. According to the First Advance Estimates, Cotton production for 2012-13 seasons is revised upward to 334 lakh bales compared with 352 lakh bales in 2011-12 season. Also, on account of cheaper cotton available in the global markets, imports have more than double from 5 lakh bales to 12 lakh bales. According to the latest CAB report as on 04 October 2012, exports have dipped sharply by 46% to 7 million bales in the 2012/13 marketing year that began on Oct. 1 compared to 12.7 million bales estimated for 201112 season. The ending stocks figure, has been revised further upward to 3.4 million bales as compared to 2.8 million bales estimated for August 2011-12 season
st

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

Global cotton prices are mainly influenced by China, US and India. USDA estimated US Cotton planting for the season 2012-13 at 12.64 mln acres as compared to 14.74 mln acres last season (2011-12). Ending stocks were at 4.8 mln bales (480 pounds/bales) with Production of 17.65 mln bales and exports of 12.1 mln bales were pegged for the season 2012-13. In its October monthly demand supply report on Thursday, the Agriculture Department (USDA) raised its cotton crop for 2012/13 cotton crop season to 17.29 mln bales (prev 17.11) along with upward revision in end stocks 5.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (prev 5.30). Exports were down to 11.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (prev 11.80). China's 2012/13 cotton crop is estimated at 31.50 mln bales up from previous estimates of 31.00 mln bales given in September, imports 11.00 mln bales down from previous estimates of 12.00 million bales, consumption was pegged at 36.00 mln bales (down from prev 38.00 million bales), end stocks 36.61 mln bales (up from prev 35.51 mln bales)
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Kapas futures in intraday is expected to recover and trade on a positive note on account of improved demand. Also, Prices might take support as farmers are not willing to sell their produce at lower levels. In addition, supply worries due to poor quality of the fresh cotton crop delivery in the international market will give prices a further upward push. However, fresh arrivals from all over India and higher global cotton ending stocks might cap the sharp upside in medium term.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX October Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Oct 20, 2012 Support 957-968 953-965 16280-16420 Resistance 993-1003 989-998 16720-16880

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