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It is very important for one to understand that in testing a hypothesis, one can only disprove the hypothesis, and the hypothesis itself can never be proven correct beyond all doubt. Not disproving the hypothesis through testing does not guarantee the hypothesis is correct, because the results of testing only mean the data used in the testing process was insufcient to disprove the hypothesis at the time of the testing7. Albert Einstein, because of his profession as an inventor, had much experience with the development and testing process when it came to a hypothesis, and in doing so he said, No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong. One only need to look at the changes brought about due to the advancement of science over the last couple of decades to understand how the development of new facts to be used in the test of an accepted hypothesis will now prove that hypothesis incorrect. In reaching a conclusion, the investigator must be satised he or she did everything possible to determine that none of the available data will disprove their hypothesis. In the testing process, an investigator can use information from many different sources to conduct this evaluation. The investigator can discuss the options with others in their profession, conduct experiments, or conduct research based on work produced by others, because, the more diverse the sources one uses in conducting evaluations or testing, the greater the anticipated degree of accuracy in the hypothesis test process. Many investigators fail to think outside the box, and design the testing of their hypothesis on a specic document, such as NFPA 921. While different schools, books, and other documents will aid an investigator in evaluating a hypothesis, these sources may not contain all the information available on the subject. Because each incident is so specic, there is little chance one book or a document will give the investigator all the information needed to develop and then conduct the testing of the hypothesis. As one nds disagreement in different test, it is also a misconception for an investigator to believe it is possible to get everyone to agree with the hypothesis developed. There will always be someone who will disagree with the hypothesis developed by the investigator, for the reason that re investigation is not an exact science, and it is not possible to replicate what took place during an incident. This occurs because of the factor that one must use their perception of their observations to reach a hypothesis, and two people have different perceptions after viewing the same object; there will always be the potential for disagreement. The best process to use when developing a hypothesis is the Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses, which contain simultaneous and continuous development and testing of a number of hypotheses. The method of multiple working hypotheses is when a re investigator thinks of all possible hypotheses that might account for his or her observations, and then goes on to test each one that has been developed. When it comes to testing each hypothesis developed through your observations at the scene, it is not necessary that there be a physical testing process for each one. While you are performing any task, your brain is constantly gathering information based on your observations, testing this data using data it has stored, and then reaching a conclusion. The testing is all taking place in your mind, and this to some extent takes place as you conduct your investigation. Using this method of continuous multiple working hypotheses the investigator is attaching his or her ego, not to a single hypothesis, but to the development and testing of all of the possible hypotheses. The importance of understanding this methodology is the most efcient known method of advancing science through hypothesis and theories. Because it is accepted that one can never prove the hypothesis and theories in science only disprove them, the true answer may never be attainable, but the supporting evidence, resistance to disproof, and the logical data from the ndings that t with other scientic knowledge on the subject can provide the investigator with a specic degree of condence in the conclusion. By elevating the degree of condence about a conclusion, a re investigator can make
JANUARY 2008FIRE & ARSON INVESTIGATOR
a valuable decision about the issues even if an answer does not have a high level of certainty8. Remembering one only develops a hypothesis only after evaluating all available data, and then from this information the person has a number of different ways to test the hypothesis. There are three ways for one to go about in disproving a hypothesis. These are: 1. What is found contradicts the hypothesis. 2. In replicating the event, the same base data fails to reproduce the same event. 3. It is supplanted by a new hypothesis, which explains more of the data, or explains the same data more elegantly9. If re investigation were a pure science, which allowed a control of all environments making replication possible, it would be easy to test a hypothesis by running a test using the same data. The idea of this type of testing being practical can be determined through the results of the testing conducted by Daniel Madrzykowski at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). In the report, he indicates it was not possible to produce general pattern consensus while reproducing the same scenario. There were cases where the replicated experiments also produced some signicant differences in the severity of burning, locations of patterns and types of patterns present10. If all testing of a hypothesis is done with the intention of disproving the hypothesis, then a single test, if conrmed, may disprove a hypothesis, but it cannot prove the hypothesis to be correct. A given series of tests may corroborate the hypothesis, but a subsequent experiment under different conditions may disprove it. With this being possible, there always exists the possibility that even though one performs all the testing possible to conrm his or her hypothesis, another person can develop new test criteria that disproves the hypothesis. It is for this reason, no matter what the status of the investigation; one must be willing to re-evaluate the hypothesis using the different criteria. It is a consensus in the scientic community that there is no absolute knowledge in science, there is only progress, which is optimistically a progression towards a more complete and accurate understanding of the event. From our past, we have seen many times that new observations will cause changes in current scientic opinions, or the development of better theories. Some hypotheses offer such strong predictions, and withstand testing for such a long period of time, that data becomes generally accepted, rst as theories and then as laws of science. However, even these are not absolute, In that a scientic law is just a very strongly supported inference. We do not know, with any degree of certainty that any one theory or hypothesis will survive in the light of new data or technology. As an example, for how many years were we taught the certainty that Pluto was a planet? Until recently, this hypothesis was correct, but now there are a number of scientists claiming there is new data that does in fact disprove this hypothesis. Presently, others are testing the data used to develop their hypothesis on the subject. An investigator must be careful when evaluating his or others hypothesis not to let a bias interfere with how the hypothesis tested11. There are a number of different kinds of bias for the investigator to recognize if the assessment of the hypothesis is to be valid, and for this reason, the person conducting the evaluation of the hypothesis must take time to consider their process and determine if any of these biases are present before conducting the review12. Another bias is known as Anchoring, which is a term used in psychology to describe the tendency persons have to rely heavily, or anchor, on one piece of information or knowledge when conducting an evaluation of their own or anothers hypothesis. During the normal evaluation process, individuals will nd themselves anchoring their
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ideas to a specic selection of facts or information and they then tend to make adjustments using those predetermined facts to adjust the data used in their evaluation of the hypothesis. The problem with anchoring is that once the individual has set the anchor, there becomes a bias to which the information is the only correct data. This reaction may cause the discarding of relevant data13. A cognitive bias is one that includes a wide range of affects on the person during the problem solving process. These affects include very basic statistical, social attribution, and memory errors that are common to all human beings. The purpose in designing the scientic method is to minimize the affect of biases relating to probability and decision making from any one observer. Conformation bias is the concept that says because we like to be right, humans will instinctually seek out information to conrm what they believe to be true, even if the evidence may be awed. Hopefully, investigators today have come to grips with this, for even if something does not seem true, it may yet be. Trying to force investigations to t a perceived outcome, either by stiing other ideas or giving in to conformation bias, will not produce good scientic results. Instead, investigators must treat the investigation process by applying the same scientic methods to them as to any other theory.
In conclusion, it is more important that all hypotheses developed during the investigation go through a testing process, and that the investigator must be careful to address all possible biases that could reect on the hypothesis. Only when the investigator has used all available data to test multiple different hypotheses, and none of the testing disproves the hypothesis, should he/she give any validity to a specic hypothesis. In using logical inference to develop a conclusion, the investigator must consider all possible serious challenges. The investigator should discard any hypothesis, after an examination by the deductive reasoning method, shows it is incorrect. It can take many years before there is data of such quality that it will disprove a hypothesis, so just the fact that it is not disproved at this time, does not mean it will always be correct. The investigator must be willing to accept all challenges to his or her hypothesis, and be willing to use this new information to repeat the testing process on their hypothesis. There is nothing wrong with re-examining ones conclusion, for it is far more damaging to all involved to be wrong in ones conclusion and continue to try to support that conclusion. Remember, testing of the hypothesis one hundred times may never disprove the validity of the hypothesis, but testing using new data on the one hundred and rst time may disprove its accuracy. It is more important at the end to be correct.
REFERENCES 1. Guide for Fire and Explosion Investigation, Section 4.3.6, 2004 2. Formal Description of the Cognitive Process of Problem Solving, Vincent Chiew, Yingxu Wang, icci, pp. 74-83, Third IEEE International Conference on Cognitive Informatics (ICCI04), 2004 3. Hypothesis, J.L. Stanbough, 2007, http://www.batesville.k12.in.us/Physics/PhyNet/AboutScience/Hypotheses.html 4. A Gentle Reminder that a Hypothesis is Never Proven Correct, nor is a Theory Ever Proven to Be True, Jacqueline McLaughlin, Journal of College Science Teaching, September 2006 5. Creative Paleontology, Jere Lipps, University of California, Berkeley, November 15, 2000 6. This is Science, Lipps, J. H. 1999., In Scotchmoor, J., and Springer, D. A. (Eds.), Evolution: Investigating the Evidence. Paleontological Society Special Publication, vol. 9, p. 3-16. 7. The Scientic Method, M. J. Malchowski, Phd., http://fog.ccsf.cc.ca.us/~mmalacho/ScienticMethod.html, 1999 8. Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses, T. C. Chamberland, Journal of Geology in 1897, http://www.accessexcellence.org/RC/AB/ BC/chamberlin.html, 9. What is Science, by Bruce H. Tiffney UC Santa Barbara, http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/education/events/tiffney3a.html 10. State-of-the-Art Research is the Future of Fire Investigation, Daniel Madrzykowski, Building and Fire Research Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology 11. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). Science, 185, 1124-1130 12. WHAT WAS HE THINKING? BEYOND BIASTO DECISION MAKING AND JUDGING, Mike Johns, Assistant U.S. Attorney and Senior Litigation Counsel, Serious Accident Investigations course, BLM National Training Center, Phoenix, AZ., 2007 13. Playing Dice With Criminal Sentences: The Inuence of Irrelevant Anchors on Experts Judicial Decision Making, Brite Englich, Pers Soc Psychol Bull, February 1, 2006; 32(2): 188 - 200.
22 HTTP://WWW.FIREARSON.COM
Ask Question
Do Background Research Construct Hypothesis Test with an Experiment Analyze Results Draw Conclusion Think! Try Again
Hypothesis Is True
Report Results
Copyright 2007 Kenneth Lafferty Hess Family Charitable Foundation. All rights reserved. http://www.sciencebuddies.org/ You may print and distribute up to 200 copies of this document annually, at no charge, for personal and classroom educational use. When printing this document, you may NOT modify it in any way. For any other use, please contact Science Buddies. 2007/03/05
Logic Path
What do I know about this claim? What do I suspect? What issue(s) am I trying to resolve? What information would help resolve the issue(s) in question? Where can I get t Wh this information?
Scene Documentation
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Copyright 2000, Imprimus Forensic Services, LLC - This form may be reproduced for law enforcement purposes only.
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
Page ________ of ________
Date:
YES
NO
Item #
Description
X-Axis W/E
Y-Axis N/S
INSTRUCTIONS: Document whether or not all occupants of the residence were interviewed. Document locations where no persons were contacted If available, list pager and / or cellphone numbers in the remarks column. Use the back side of this sheet for notes. MULTIPLE UNIT OCCUPANCY: Address ____________________________________________________________________ (List only unit numbers below)
ADDRESS (indicate residence, business, etc.)
# OF OCC.
PERSON CONTACTED
DOB
HOME TX#
WORK TX#
FOLLOW-UP RQ'D NOTES ON BACK
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
# OF OCC.
CANVASSING OFFICER (Print): _____________________________________________________ INITIALS: __________ DATE: ______________ TIME START: _____________ TIME END: ______________
Copyright 2000, Imprimus Forensic Services, LLC - This form may be reproduced for law enforcement purposes only.
CANVASSING OFFICER (Print): _____________________________________________________ INITIALS: __________ DATE: ______________ TIME START: _____________ TIME END: ______________
Copyright 2000, Imprimus Forensic Services, LLC - This form may be reproduced for law enforcement purposes only.
AGENCY INVESTIGATOR
FIRE POLICE
SHIFT/STATION DATE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
VISIBILITY LIGHTNING PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE WIND DIRECTION WIND SPEED
YES NO YES NO
VISIBLE (EXTERIOR)
YES NO YES NO
FIRE DEPT UNITS ALREADY ON LOCATION CONNECTION PROBLEMS? ALARM SYSTEM SOUNDING? HYDRANT WATER GONG
POLICE OFFICERS ON LOCATION FDC, SIAMESE, PIV SMOKE DETECTOR OPERATIONAL? OTHER OTHER
YES NO
LOCKED UNLOCKED
WINDOWS
EVIDENCE OF FORCED ENTRY PRIOR TO ENTERING THE BUILDING? - EXPLAIN LOCATION OF DOORS AND WINDOWS ENTERED OR OPENED BY YOU FOR ACCESS OR VENTILATION (LOCKED, OPEN, BROKEN, ETC) DID YOU NOTICE ANY DOORS OR WINDOWS BLOCKED OR COVERED?
***CONTINUED ON REVERSE***
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION - SCENE SKETCH (NOTE ANY UNUSUAL OR NOTEWORTHY ITEMS, ATTACH ADDITIONAL SHEETS IF NEEDED)
City of Tukwila Fire Department 444 Andover Park East Tukwila, WA 98188 (206) 575-4407
I certify that the control of the premises, and/or contents therein, has been returned to me and that I am responsible for the protection of such premises and/or contents and evidence if present.
Signed: _____________________________ Printed Name: ________________________________ Address: __________________________________________________________________________ Phone: ( ) ____________________________ WDL # _________________________________ Property Released to the Above By: __________________________________
Fire Investigator
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Source: Redsicker, David R The Practical Methodology of Forensic Photography, Second Ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press:2001
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Follow the Story Basic Six Step Report Format Introduction Set the Scene Introduce the Players Tell the Story (Summary) Start at the beginning of the incident Chronological Order with lots of details Tell How You Became Involved Did the victim call 911? How did you become involved in this incident? List the Steps of Your Investigation and Investigative Actions Explain what actions you (and others) took as you worked the call or investigation In what order did you examine the scene (what did you find?) Did you identify/collect any evidence Statements of Victims, Witnesses, and Others Document what they told you Use exact quotes for important statements Give the Disposition of the Incident How did the story end? What facts support your conclusion? Is there more follow-up work to be done?
AGENCY
CASE NUMBER
Investigator's Agency
INVESTIGATOR DATE
Investigator's Name
NARRATIVE REPORT
SUMMARY: A brief synopsis of the case (130 words or less). Summarize the entire case as of the date this report was written. Example: On 06/05/2005 at 2251 hrs, FD 1 responded to a residential structure re located at 3000 Rockefeller Ave., in unincorporated Snohomish County. Upon arrival they located re venting form the roof of a single story single family residence. Fire crews extinguished the re and notied dispatch to contact a county re investigator to respond to the scene for an investigation. At 2300 hrs, I was notied by SNOPAC that FD 1 was requesting me to respond for an investigation at the above location. I arrived on scene at 2330 hrs and conducted an investigation into the origin and cause of the re. There were no injuries to civilians or reghters. Damage from the re was estimated at $250,000 (structure and contents). Case number AZ08-00245 was assigned to this incident. PEOPLE Identify all the people involved in the case Name, Address, Phone Number, Date of Birth, and how they are related to the case and/or each other. V-1: Hamilton, Alexander 1603 Pennsylvania Ave, Washington DC 202/555-1212 DOB: 02.02.1995 (how related to incident; injured? etc) W-1: Hayes, Rutherford B. 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, Washington DC 202/555-1212 DOB: 01.01.1990 (how related to incident....) X-1: Burr, Aaron 501 Bench Drive, Granite Falls WA 98058 360/555-1212 DOB: 03.03.1994 Was seen running from the location approximately ve minutes before the re was discovered... BACKGROUND: What transpired before the incident you are investigating in chronological order up until the time you arrived to examine the scene. Include an appropriately detailed synopsis of re or police activity at the scene prior to your arrival (reference their reports by case number). On Monday evening, June 5, 2005 Alexander Hamilton and Rutherford Hayes were playing cards at Hamilton's house. At approximately 2230 hours, they heard a noise in the backyard.... At 2251 hours, Snohomish County Fire District #1 was dispatched to the location for a possible structure re. Fire crews arrived to nd Hamilton laying in the front yard with burn injuries. Hayes was attempting to provide rst aid. Crews attended to Hamilton and Hayes and then proceeded to extinguish the re. At 2300 I was notied that Battalion Chief Roger Young had requested a Deputy Fire Marshal be dispatched to the scene. I proceeded to the location, arriving at 2345 hours. I checked in with Young and received an incident brieng and then received permission to enter the scene and conduct my examination. PROPERTY DESCRIPTION: Describe the property where the incident occurred. If a vehicle or other mobile property,
AGENCY
CASE NUMBER
Investigator's Agency
INVESTIGATOR DATE
Investigator's Name
NARRATIVE REPORT
describe it rst and then describe the location where the incident occurred. Use enough detail that would allow someone to write a search warrant from your description, or that there is no doubt in their mind where the incident occurred. EXTERIOR DESCRIPTION: The exterior examination disclosed... describe features, damage patterns or other information that you examined.... Refer to photographs and diagrams if necessary. INTERIOR DESCRIPTION: The interior examination disclosed... AREA/POINT OF ORIGIN: The are of origin was located... (identify and explain WHY this is the area of origin; list the possible heat sources in this area. If they can be eliminated, describe how and why. The point of origin was located... (locate the point of origin in three dimensions and explain WHY) EVIDENCE: What evidence was collected or identied as being associated with the cause of the re. What did you do with the evidence? If any evidence was collected, attach the evidence log sheet. PHOTOGRAPHS AND DIAGRAMS: What photographs were taken? How many? Where can the reader obtain a copy of these photos? Include full size photos of key points of the investigation, to assist the reader in seeing what you saw, examined, and concluded. Example: 75 digital photographs were taken during this investigation and are contained on a 700 MB Photo CD which is attached to this report, checked into the property room as Evidence Item #1, etc What diagrams were prepared as part of your investigation? Plot plan, oor layout, electrical panel diagram, etc. Attach these diagrams to the report. INVESTIGATION ACTIVITY: Describe your investigative activities... I arrived at 2130 hrs and made contact with the Incident Commander, Battalion Chief Roger Young who briefed told me... Articulate your legal right to be on the property open view, exigent circumstances , verbal permission (from whom?), written consent, criminal search warrant, etc..... I then spoke to the occupant, John Doe, who stated that... I examined the scene from the exterior to the interior, from the area of least damage (exterior southeast corner of the residence) to the area of most damage (the northwest corner of the living room). I entered the structure (identify your entry point).... At the conclusion of your examination, what happened to the property? Who did you release it
AGENCY
CASE NUMBER
Investigator's Agency
INVESTIGATOR DATE
Investigator's Name
NARRATIVE REPORT
to (and how?) What instructions did you give to the person?
INTERVIEWS AND STATEMENTS: Identify each person you spoke to (in order) and provide a brief summary of what they told you. (There will be some duplication from what is written above). Note if they provided a written or recorded statement include these statements (written or transcribed) in the case le. CONCLUSION: What conclusion did you draw from your scene examination and investigation? The inception of the re occurred inside the residence, in the northwest corner of the living room, three feet from the north wall, two feet from the west wall, and 18 inches from the oor in the area of the entertainment center. List any steps that you took to further or complete the investigation referral for juvenile re setter intervention, release scene to owner/occupant, notied insurance adjuster, etc... What was the damage estimate from the re (replacement value)? Heat Source: UNDETERMINED, Handheld Flame, Heat from operating electrical equipment, etc First Fuel Ignited: What was the rst fuel ignited? Electrical insulation? Upholstery? Flammable vapors? Ignition Factor: What brought event, or chain of events, brought the heat source and the fuel together to cause the re or explosion? Cause of the Fire: UNDETERMINED ACCIDENTAL INCENDIARY NATURAL If appropriate, include a brief statement about your level of certainty Disposition: Follow-Up: OPEN/CLOSED What is the status of the case? What still needs to be done? No Further Action Required; Locate and interview Aaron Burr; or...
I certify (or declare) under penalty of perjury under the laws of the State of Washington that the foregoing statement is true and correct. /s/ Your Name Your Agency
Fire Investigation Reports John Comery ATF SUMMARY Complete this section LAST. Write a one paragraph summary (100 words or less) of your investigation. If the investigation is still open, add a second paragraph describing what still needs to be done (follow-up) to complete the investigation.
NARRATIVE Participating Investigators: Identify each investigator who participated in the investigation. Identify by name, agency, address, and phone number Owner: Who is the property owner? Involved Parties: Identify other involved parties to this incident (occupants, witnesses, suspects, others) Name-DOB-Address-Phone Description of Premises: Occupancy: Describe the location where the fire or explosion occurred. If a structure, describe the building construction type and features, identify the occupancy type, etc. Include information about any fire detection or suppression equipment installed. If a vehicle, note the make/model/year, VIN, license plate, etc AND the location where the vehicle was found (open field, remote service access road, etc) Include sufficient detail that this description could be used to write a search warrant. Building Construction: Fire Protection Systems:
Fire Discovery: Who discovered the fire? How? Fire Suppression: Describe fire suppression efforts. Did the fire protection equipment function properly? When was the fire department notified? When did they arrive. Where did they make entrance? What was the first area of fire extinguished? What was the last area extinguished? Did anything unusual happen during the suppression efforts? Summarize any observation reports provided by fire/police personnel in this section. Weather: What were the weather conditions at the time of fire discovery? Anything significant in the previous 24 hours? If the there was a delay in examining the scene, what was the weather between the time of extinguishment and the examination? Legal Presence: Describe how you accessed the scene (i.e. verbal/written permission of the occupant or owner, search warrant, etc) Interviews: Identify each person interviewed (include Name, DOB, Address, Phone) and a brief description/summary of what they said. SCENE PROCESSING Evidence: Identify all items of evidence collected, where they were found, who collected them, and their current disposition Exposures: What items (structures, vehicles, etc) beyond the initially involved fire were damaged? Injuries / Deaths: Identify each person injured or killed. Name-Address-Phone number. Give a brief description of injuries Fire Scene Investigative Hazards:
What hazards existed on the scene during your examination and the steps taken to mitigate the dangers Estimated Value of loss: Laboratory Examination: What items were sent to be examined and what test results were returned? Discussion: Conclusion: Origin: Cause: Classification:
Attachments:
Publication/Author 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. NFPA 921, Guide for Fire and Explosion Investigation NFPA 1033, Professional Qualifications for Fire Investigator, Brady, Kirk's Fire Investigation, 7th Edition, IFSTA, Essentials of Firefighting, 5th Edition, NFPA, Fire Protection Handbook, 20th Edition, (2008) IFSTA, Hazardous Materials for First Responders, 4th Edition, IFSTA, Fire Inspection and Code Enforcement, 7th Edition, Lee Books, Investigation of Motor Vehicle Fires, 4th Edition Delmar, Principles of Fire Behavior, James G. Quintiere
August 2012