Critical Review on Vision 2030

A critical review of Vision 2030 of Pakistan

Vision 2030
Developed, Industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan through rapid and sustainable development in a resource constrained economy by deploying knowledge inputs.

Introduction
A vision statement provides a basis on which the people involved can work towards. And the purpose of a vision statement is to inspire members to a common desirable and happy future. The basic aim of this vision is to bring a positive social change in Pakistan not just only in one institution but in whole system. Any vision is a framework which guide to the members of society to find out their progress way. Every nation pass through different phases to make progress or for development and vision 2030 also a development framework. This is the vision which developed by the Planning Commission of Pakistan. Now the question is how we achieve this vision we make core strategies to achieve this vision. To achieve this vision Planning Commission of Pakistan to make strategy to aligning

Critical Points
A biggest critics on this vision and that is this vision linked with new generation of Pakistan but they dont have any awayness about this vision. Youth involvement is so important so GOVT should launch different companies to awayness involvement of youth According to Tailcoat Parsons society is not static its dynamic and move to developed society but develop stage takes Hundreds years not only 15 to 20 years. So vision 2030 is too short time for the achievement. Need for a Long Term Vision. The policy designed is good and will only be successful if there are implemented as is desired, and secondly monitoring and evaluation is most important. But in vision 2030 not mention about monitoring and evaluating system. According to situation vision 2030 should be further divided into 3 or 4 different segments. Like in first 5 years we should more focus on fundamental level development then make smaller level strategy which leads to word vision 2030. Vision 2030 should start work at gross root or basic level and main concern that every institution should be align withe the main goal and these strategies should led to vision. But in vision 2030 they dont talk about root level planing.

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Critical Review on Vision 2030

According to report of Pakistan bureau Statistics Accumulated food inflation over the 2008-2011 period stands at a frightening 57 percent. No wonder the percentage of population living below the line of poverty has gone up from 28.4 percent in 2008 to 41.2 percent in 2011. In 2005 24% population below the poverty line. This situation is still question mark on vision 2030.

The Basic Goal: A Just and Sustainable Society

Achieving the true potential of each and every citizen is the cornerstone of Vision 2030. The basic thread in the discourse of Vision 2030 remains the creation of a just society, without which Pakistan will not flourish and prosper. Pakistan will continue to be a multiethnic, multi-cultural, and multi religious society. We are confident that within Pakistan, as elsewhere in the world, identities based on religion, language and culture will have emerged into a state of maturity by 2030. According to Vision 2030 report in future Pakistani society will live a nation rather than ethnic groups but according to T-Parson we integrate people just only on the bases of norms and values. In Pakistan more then 6 different ethnic groups and they have different norms and value just only one thing is common and that is religion but in Vision 2030 they dont adopt any religion I accept all institute are very important, but in Pakistan religion is most important institution in Vision 2030 they dont talk about the role of religion for the development . In vision 2030 first point is about law and Justus, but in Pakistan judiciary still work under political pressure. Because many of judiciary decision takes with the help of political leaders in Pakistan. According to Malthus theory of population more population will leads to shortage of foods so in Vision 2030 also work on control the population growth rate. According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics current population is 190,291,129 which is so high. According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics female life expectancy is high then male so in vision 2030 also should work for females participation in jobs and female should also provide equal opportunity because in Pakistan females mostly ignored due to some social problems. According to population pyramid Pakistan is developing country which show life expectancy of males 64 and female is 68 years. This points miss-matching with vision 2030. According to economic survey of Pakistan Health expenditures: 2.6% of GDP (2009) its still too low campier the vision 2030 Planing Commission should more focus on health sector because due to poor performance this sector will never achieve its goals. According to economic survey of Pakistan 2009 Hospital bed density 0.6 beds/1,000 population (2009). This capacity is to short it should also improve for better health facilities for the development of Pakistan.

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Critical Review on Vision 2030

The Institutions of State and Government

Decades of internal political disputes and low levels of foreign investment have led to slow growth and underdevelopment in Pakistan. Foreign investment has not returned, due to investor concerns related to governance, energy, security, and a slow-down in the global economy. Remittances from overseas workers, averaging about $1 billion a month since March 2011, remain a bright spot for Pakistan. Poverty and violence are also cousins. In 2008-09, food inflation in Pakistan was recorded at a startling 26.6 percent. If such type of Government rules in Pakistan then its impossible to achieve this vision.

The Macroeconomic Framework

According to Economic Survey of Pakistan GDP growth in 2005 was 8.958 and in 2011 GDP growth rate is 2.39 which show the true picture of development. But in vision 2030 aspect GDP growth rate is 7 to 8% which is not match with current policies Official unemployment is 6%, but this fails to capture the true picture, because much of the economy is informal and underemployment remains high. In vision 2030 main focus to overcome unemployment this situation is question mark on vision 2030. Over the past few years, low growth and high inflation, led by a spurt in food prices, have increased the amount of poverty - the UN Human Development Report estimated poverty in 2011 at almost 50% of the population. This is alarming situation for the development. Inflation has worsened the situation, climbing from 7.7% in 2007 to more than 13% for 2011, before declining to 9.3% at year-end.As a result of political and economic instability, the Pakistani rupee has depreciated more than 40% since 2007. The government agreed to an International Monetary Fund Standby Arrangement in November 2008 in response to a balance of payments crisis. Although the economy has stabilized since the crisis, it has failed to recover. According to Lewis Theory of Development Economy consists of two sectors- traditional and modern traditional sector has surplus of labor model focuses on the process of transfer of surplus labor and the growth of output in the modern sector. The process of self-sustaining growth and employment expansion continues in the modern sector until all of the surplus labor is absorbed Structural transformation of the economy has taken place with the growth of the modern industry

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Critical Review on Vision 2030

Pakistans economic also face such type of problems 45% labor force work in traditional sector and the contribute of traditional sector is 20.9% on the other hand modern industry sector labor

force is 20.1% and its contribution is 25.8% services: 53.3%. For the development we should follow some theoretical framework rather than to follow any stat or any country.

Agriculture Growth: Food, Water and Land

Ac curing to the Economic survey of Pakistan GDP - composition by sector agriculture: 20.9%, Labor force - by occupation agriculture: 45% agriculture sector is not efficiently work. To secure agriculture land GOVT should must bean on different housing schemes which and not necessary. Water is the carousal issue in these days in Pakistan. Without water we cant achieve of target goals in vision alternative source of water should be find to secure our future.

Manufacturing and Industry

According to CIA World Fact book in Pakistan Industry sector participation is 25.8% and labor force in industry sector 20.1%, In services sector participation in GDP is 53.3% and labor force in services sector is 34.9%. this situation say manufacturing and industry sector work efficiently but we need to more efficient then our competitor. This is a good idea, which seeks to diversify our economy. The BPO wave has washed over countries like India to great profit. We are seeking a piece of this growing pie, and we want to take advantage of our education, English skills and time zone advantages. Again, though, we need to take notice of our potential competitors, who are making similar moves. Countries such as India Bangladesh offer just about the same advantages we do, and we need to differentiate ourselves to mitigate against this kind of competition.

Knowledge, Technology, and Competition

Education expenditures 2.7% of GDP (2009) still to low need to improve for the better educational services. If country comparison to the world rating number is 142. Need to more focu for the betterment. To take development and equality need to promote same syllabus in all over the Pakistans educational institution. In vision 2030 not highlight this issue

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Critical Review on Vision 2030

Energy for Growth

In Energy of growth coal solar panel system and wind energy growth are the best way to produce the energy. But due to lack of research and development Pakistan do not utilize this natural resource. The ADB sees power as the main constraint for economic growth, stressing for better load-management to minimize commercial losses. The report adds: Losses arising from power and gas shortages held down GDP growth by 34 per % points in FY2011 and FY2012. Improved management of power resources could ameliorate predictability of load-shedding to allow the private sector to better schedule work and minimize costs. For every unit of power sold, there is a loss to the sector reflected in the form of subsidies. An outstanding accumulation of PRs220 billion was carried into FY2012, and an additional financing of 11.5% of GDP is likely to be required in FY2012.

Rural and Urban Development

According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics improved Sanitation facility access in urban area 72% of population and in rural area 29% of population total 45% of population its mean less then half population is still lack of facility access. Unimproved in urban area 28% of population and in rural area 71% of population total: 55% of population (2008). This situation not matching with vision. Due to poor facilities rural societies migrate towards cities which leads to create problems for large cities. In vision 2030 should more focus on betterment of rural file. According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS), over the past three years, sugar has gone up by 152 %, mash pulse 122%, mutton 88%, milk 86% and wheat 46%. Food inflation and poverty are first cousins. This situation also mismatch with vision. In Pakistan we have 72.9 million Pakistanis, 41.2 percent of the total, who are ending up spending up to 70 percent of their entire budget on food.

The State and Security

Main goal of vision 2030 is pace and secure life for the achievement of vision 2030. But still security is become question mark for administration institution.

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Critical Review on Vision 2030

Due to lack of security foreigner heritage to come in Pakistan, and avoid to invest in Pakistan. Every day suicide bombing and target killing in different province is proof bad performance of security institution.

Internally Pakistan still fail to control the security problems and externally also threats to attack on it. Internationally Pakistan loss high moral due to lack of security.

The economy continues to be affected by structural problems, including a domestic energy crisis, a precipitous decline in investment, persistently high inflation, and security issues. Budget deficits remain high, driven by substantial subsidies and losses at stateowned enterprises, and tax revenue below target, says the report

Conclusion
Vision 2030 is an admirable document in many respects, and, if successfully implemented, should drive Pakistan to an enviable global position, where we serve our citizens well, and are globally competitive. However, it seems to have over-looked several key issues, and needs to address these before it can be considered complete

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Reference:
GOVT of Pakistan Ministry of Finance information in this page is accurate as of may 15,2012. http://finance.gov.pk/survey_0708.html

Economic survey of Pakistan 2005,2007,2010, information in this page is accurate as of may 18,2012. http://www.accountancy.com.pk/docs/economic-survey-pakistan-2007-08-02.pdf

CIA World Fact book, information in this page is accurate as of may 18, 2012 .https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/refmaps.html

Economic Pakistan http://economicpakistan.wordpress.com/2008/01/29/federal-bureau-of-statistics2005-to-2010/

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. information in this page is accurate as of may 18,2012. http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/agriculture-statistics

Asian Development Bank Report. information in this page is accurate as of may 20,2012. http://www.adb.org/documents/series/adb-annual-reports

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