Stat 230 - Midterm (Summer 10) T.

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================================================ Please answer all the questions on the same sheet of paper on which they are written. Any part of your answer written on the wrong page will not be graded. There are 6 problems in total. Some questions have several parts to them. Make sure that you attempt them all. This is a closed book exam and no calculators are allowed. ================================================

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Q1

Q2

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Q5

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Problem 1 (10 points each) Prove the following claims: a- If A and B are independent events then A and B c are independent events. b- If A and B are two events such that P (A) = 0 prove that P (B|A) = P (A|B)P (B) P (A|B)P (B) + P (A|B c )P (B c )

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Problem 2 (20 points) There are two tests to check for tuberculosis (which is present in 1% of the population), T1 and T2 . T1 has an
8 10

probability of returning positive for a sick person and

9 10

1 99

of

returning positive for a healthy one. While T2 has a individual and a

1 3

probability of returning positive for a sick

one for a normal one. Given that John takes T1 , Jack takes T2 and both test

positive, which one is more likely to have tuberculosis? ================================================

Problem 3 (10 points each) A standard fair dice is rolled repeatedly until it shows 6. Consider the random variable which is the number of rolls. a- What is the p.d.f.? b- What is the mean? ================================================

Problem 4 (15 points) On average ten customers come to a bistro per hour. Assuming the conditions of a Poisson process, what is the probability that 30 will come on a given working day, given that the bistro is open from 8:00 a.m. till 10:00 p.m. ? If a customer just came in, what is the expected time until the next one comes? ================================================

Problem 5 (15 points) If X is a random variable distributed normally with mean 0 and variance 1, nd the p.d.f. of the random variable Y = eX . Dont forget to mention what is the space of the random variable. ================================================

Problem 6 (10 points) A particular shop in downtown has 20 dierent types of icecream. For a standard price a customer gets a standard portion of 4 scoops. If all the scoops turn out to be dierent the customer will take another portion. Assuming that the scoops are chosen randomly, what is the probability that the customer will ask for another portion?