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Syndicate Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 2QFY13 1,391 843 463 1QFY13 1,319 841 440 % chg (qoq) 5.4 0.3 5.3 2QFY12 1,313 891 323 % chg (yoy) 5.9 (5.4) 43.5
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 7,145 1.2 126/67 79,660 10 18,625 5,664 SBNK.BO SNDB@IN
`119 -
During 2QFY2013, Syndicate Bank reported a moderate operating performance, with a 5.4% yoy decline in its operating profits to `843cr. However tax write-back of `100cr as against tax expense of `61cr in 2QFY2012 aided the company to post an earnings growth of 43.5% yoy to `463cr. Business growth moderates; NIM improves; Slippages elevated, but were offset by higher recoveries/upgrades: During 2QFY2013, the business growth for the bank remained moderate, with advances and deposits growing by 12.7% and 10.5% yoy, respectively. Despite a growth of 10.9% yoy witnessed in savings deposits, the growth in CASA deposits remained moderate at 8.1% yoy due to flattish current deposits. The CASA ratio improved on a sequential basis by 173bp to 29.9%. Sequentially, an 8bp decline in the cost of deposits coupled with a 10bp higher yield on advances, led to an improvement in the reported NIM by 14bp to 3.3%. On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed stability with a marginal sequential increase of 3.3% qoq in gross NPAs and decline of 1.7% qoq in net NPAs, on an absolute basis. Though the slippages for the bank have remained elevated at `2,108cr during 1HFY2013 with an annualized slippage ratio of 3.4%, the bank has maintained its asset quality due to higher recoveries and upgrades (`1,366cr in 1HFY2013 compared to `1,052 in 2HFY2012) and higher write-offs (`746cr compared to `47cr in 2HFY2012). The provisioning coverage ratio for the bank improved 155bp sequentially and stood comfortable at 82.7%. During the quarter, the bank also restructured loans worth ~`1,100cr, which included an account from the hospitality industry amounting to ~`700cr, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `9,200cr (~7.3% of its overall loan book). Outlook and valuation: Syndicate Bank has a moderate CASA and fee income franchise, with the CASA ratio in the vicinity of 30% as of 2QFY2013 and fee income at 0.6% of average assets as of FY2012. Though the bank has relatively comfortable asset quality outlook than peers and was one of our top picks since the last few quarters, the stock has surged significantly in the recent times and is currently trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV, which we believe have priced in the riskreward appropriately. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 66.2 17.8 3.6 12.4
3m 11.9 25.5
FY2011 4,383 60.0 1,048 28.8 3.0 18.3 6.5 1.0 0.7 17.6
FY2012 5,085 16.0 1,313 25.3 3.1 21.8 5.4 0.9 0.8 17.9
FY2013E 5,648 11.1 1,582 20.5 3.0 26.3 4.5 0.8 0.8 18.3
FY2014E 6,545 15.9 1,633 3.2 3.0 27.1 4.4 0.7 0.7 16.6
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 4,276 3,403 780 65 28 2,885 1,391 270 245 81 25 20 144 1,661 818 565 253 843 480 476 (3) 7 364 (100) 463 (27.4)
1QFY13 4,243 3,324 807 62 50 2,923 1,319 236 213 77 23 14 122 1,555 714 485 229 841 513 264 (6) 255 328 (112) 440 (34.1)
% chg (qoq) 0.8 2.4 (3.4) 4.5 (42.9) (1.3) 5.4 14.7 15.3 5.2 8.7 2.4 18.1 6.8 14.6 16.5 10.5 0.3 (6.5) 80.4 (97.3) 10.8 5.3 668bp
2QFY12 3,771 3,082 645 43 2,458 1,313 244 232 120 12 32 80 1,557 666 449 217 891 507 457 2 48 384 61 323 15.9
% chg (yoy) 13.4 10.4 20.9 48.7 17.4 5.9 10.5 5.5 (32.5) 108.3 10.4 79.3 6.6 22.7 25.9 16.2 (5.4) (5.4) 4.1 (85.4) (5.3) 43.5 (4337)bp
1HFY13 8,519 6,726 1,588 127 78 5,809 2,710 506 458 158 48 68 232 3,216 1,531 1,050 481 1,684 992 739 (9) 262 692 (212) 904 (30.6)
1HFY12 7,170 5,859 1,248 63 4,746 2,423 536 466 250 70 216 2,959 1,326 903 422 1,634 834 708 40 86 800 134 666 16.8
% chg 18.8 14.8 27.2 102.5 22.4 11.8 (5.6) (1.7) (36.8) (31.4) 7.4 8.7 15.5 16.3 13.9 3.1 19.1 4.4 206.6 (13.5) 35.7 (4738)bp
Actual 1,391 270 1,661 818 843 480 364 (100) 463
Estimates 1,366 260 1,626 743 883 420 463 106 356
% chg 1.8 4.0 2.2 10.1 (4.5) 14.3 (21.5) (193.7) 30.0
2QFY13 126,781 155,854 81.3 10,428 36,125 46,553 29.9 11.3 8.4 7.0 10.8 3.3 49.2 3,179 2.5 1,164 0.9 82.3 3.9 1.0
1QFY13 129,171 157,276 82.1 9,987 34,275 44,262 28.1 11.7 8.6 7.1 10.7 3.2 45.9 3,077 2.4 1,185 0.9 80.7 4.0 0.6
% chg (qoq) (1.9) (0.9) (78)bp 4.4 5.4 5.2 173bp (39)bp (19)bp (8)bp 10bp 14bp 333bp 3.3 9bp (1.7) (1)bp 155bp (3)bp 46bp
2QFY12 112,533 141,083 79.8 10,497 32,578 43,075 30.5 11.8 8.6 6.7 10.9 3.4 42.8 2,721 2.4 1,052 0.9 78.5 3.8 1.1
% chg (yoy) 12.7 10.5 158bp (0.7) 10.9 8.1 (66)bp (47)bp (15)bp 31bp (7)bp (11)bp 645bp 16.8 9bp 10.7 (1)bp 376bp 18bp (10)bp
10.7
7.1
8.1 7.5
18.9 21.5
14.9 14.9
15.8 16.5
16.8 18.4
30.5
30.8
29.4
28.1
29.9
5.0
12.7 10.5
Asset quality maintained despite elevated slippages due to higher write-offs and upgrades & recoveries
On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed stability with a marginal sequential increase of 3.3% qoq in gross NPAs and a decline of 1.7% qoq in net NPAs, on an absolute basis. The gross NPA ratio declined sequentially by 9bp to 2.5%, while the net NPA ratio remained stable at 0.9%. Though the slippages for the bank have remained elevated at `2,108cr during 1HFY2013 with the annualized slippage ratio of 3.4%, the bank has maintained its asset quality due to higher recoveries and upgrades (`1,366cr in 1HFY2013 compared to `1,052 in 2HFY2012) and higher write-offs (`746cr compared to `47cr in 2HFY2012). The provisioning coverage ratio for the bank improved 155bp sequentially and stood comfortable at 82.7% (on the higher side within the PSU segment). During the quarter, the bank restructured loans worth ~`1,100cr, which included an account from the hospitality industry amounting to ~`700cr, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `9,200cr (~7.3% of its overall loan book).
2.4 0.9
2.3 0.9
2.5 1.0
2.4 0.9
594
449
394
485
400 200 -
565
42.8
41.1
51.7
45.9
49.2
15.0 -
2.5 0.9
0.5
0.5 -
Earlier estimates FY2013 15.0 15.0 28.0 2.9 2.8 10.0 10.0 3.2 80.0 FY2014 14.0 15.0 26.7 3.0 11.6 15.0 15.0 2.9 75.0
Revised estimates FY2013 14.0 14.0 28.2 3.0 3.0 13.0 10.0 3.4 80.0 FY2014 14.0 15.0 27.0 3.0 11.7 13.0 15.0 3.1 75.0
Earlier estimates 5,617 1,106 6,722 3,096 3,627 1,908 1,719 258 1,461
FY2013 Revised estimates 5,648 1,108 6,756 3,152 3,603 1,981 1,623 41 1,582
Var. (%) 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.8 (0.6) 3.8 (5.6) (84.3) 8.3
Earlier estimates 6,484 1,234 7,719 3,560 4,159 1,731 2,427 788 1,640
FY2014 Revised estimates 6,545 1,237 7,783 3,582 4,200 1,868 2,333 700 1,633
Var. (%) 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.0 7.9 (3.9) (11.1) (0.4)
0.5x
0.7x
0.9x
1.1x
1.3x
FY2012-14E EPS CAGR (%) 16.0 6.7 27.9 20.9 4.2 23.5 (0.4) 1.0 6.4 20.8 35.5 7.2 100.1 (2.2) 3.1 20.1 2.8 27.1 6.5 29.0 7.4 21.7 11.5 7.9 19.8 20.7 12.1
FY2014E RoA (%) 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5
FY2014E RoE (%) 20.2 13.3 22.0 15.5 16.9 23.5 15.7 15.3 17.0 16.3 15.5 15.3 14.7 15.1 15.9 14.4 16.3 13.6 17.7 14.4 17.3 17.7 16.6 14.4 16.3 16.2 13.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Syndicate Bank is a south-based mid-sized PSU bank, with an asset base in excess of `1.8lakh cr. The bank has 2,700+ branches, with a more spread out network than other regional banks, having 53% branches in the south and the remaining spread across several states of the country (23% of branches in the northern region). The bank also has a reasonable presence overseas, which accounts for ~10% of its total loans.
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.1 0.5 1.6 0.3 1.9 0.6 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.9 27.8 24.0 2.1 0.5 1.6 0.2 1.8 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.8 28.1 21.6 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 1.8 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.6 27.4 16.6 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.7 24.9 17.6 3.0 1.1 1.9 0.1 1.9 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.8 23.1 17.9 2.9 1.0 1.9 0.0 1.9 0.5 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.0 0.8 22.6 18.3 2.9 0.8 2.1 0.0 2.1 0.5 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.7 22.6 16.6 7.3 1.7 2.4 6.8 1.4 2.6 7.6 1.2 2.5 6.5 1.0 3.1 5.4 0.9 3.2 4.5 0.8 4.6 4.4 0.7 4.6 16.2 70.6 2.8 17.5 83.6 3.0 15.6 98.9 3.0 18.3 116.1 3.7 21.8 133.5 3.8 26.3 153.4 5.5 27.1 174.1 5.5 2.7 1.0 2.4 0.4 64.8 1.9 0.8 1.5 0.3 60.4 2.2 1.1 1.8 0.4 73.3 2.4 1.0 1.7 0.6 77.2 2.5 1.0 2.9 0.9 80.1 3.3 2.4 3.4 0.9 80.0 4.7 3.2 3.1 0.8 75.0 30.9 67.3 11.2 6.6 27.6 70.4 12.7 7.9 31.2 77.3 12.7 8.2 30.9 78.8 13.0 9.3 29.5 78.3 12.2 8.9 28.2 78.3 11.8 9.0 27.0 77.6 11.3 8.8 2.2 49.6 0.9 24.0 2.2 51.7 0.8 21.6 2.1 52.0 0.6 16.6 3.0 48.1 0.7 17.6 3.1 45.7 0.8 17.9 3.0 46.7 0.8 18.3 3.0 46.0 0.7 16.6 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Syndicate Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11