Preliminary Recidivism Rates:

The Twin Rivers Sex Offender

Treatment Program (Revised)

Lin Song
and
Roxanne Lieb

June 1994
 Preliminary Recidivism Rates:
The Twin Rivers Sex Offender Treatment Program

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This study is a preliminary estimate of the recidivism rates of sex offenders who have completed
the Sex Offender Treatment Program (SOTP) at the Washington State Department of
Corrections’ Twin Rivers Corrections Center. Estimated recidivism rates of these offenders are
compared with the rates of a group of released sex offenders who did not receive sex offender
treatment during incarceration.1

Recidivism is defined as a re-arrest for a felony offense, and is grouped into one of three
categories: sex offense, violent offense, and non-violent offense.

In order to be selected for the treatment program, sex offenders must meet the following four
requirements:

y Voluntary participation
y An I.Q. of 80 or above
y Admission of guilt
y At least one year remaining in prison

Because of these requirements, there may be significant differences between the treatment group
and the comparison group that result from the selection process and are unrelated to the effects
of the SOTP.

Findings:

y Estimated recidivism rates of the treatment group were slightly lower than the rates of the
comparison group; however, the differences were not statistically significant.

y In designing future research on the effectiveness of treatment, random assignment is

suggested to minimize bias from self-selection into treatment programs.

y A larger sample size and a longer follow-up time would provide more information about
the long-range effects of prison-based sex offender treatment and increase the likelihood
of scientifically valid results.
Introduction

The prison-based Sex Offender Treatment Program (SOTP) is located at the Twin Rivers
Corrections Center, a medium-security prison near Monroe, Washington. This program, started
in 1988, uses a combination of treatment techniques including group therapy, psycho-educational
classes, behavioral treatment, drama therapy, and family involvement. Treatment lasts from a
minimum of one year up to four years.

Offenders selected for the treatment program must meet the following four requirements
(Washington State Department of Corrections 1993):

y Voluntary participation
y An I.Q. of 80 or above
y Admission of guilt
y A minimum of one year remaining in prison

This study describes the recidivism rates of the first program graduates (the treatment group).
Recidivism is defined as a re-arrest for a felony offense, and is grouped into one of three
categories:2

y Re-arrest for a sex offense

y Re-arrest for a violent offense
y Re-arrest for a non-violent offense

Estimated re-arrest rates of the treatment group were compared with the estimated re-arrest rates
of a group of released sex offenders in Washington State who did not receive sex offender
treatment during incarceration.

Because the program accepts only offenders who admit their guilt and voluntarily request
treatment, there may be significant differences between the treatment group and the comparison
group that are unrelated to the effects of the treatment program. Offenders who volunteer for
treatment may have a higher motivation to change their criminal behavior, and thus would have
lower recidivism rates regardless of treatment. Also, other factors that are not examined in this
study, such as marital status, level of education, and socioeconomic status, may influence the
results. Furthermore, the follow-up time in this study was relatively short (averaging 20
months), which does not allow evaluation of the long-term effects of treatment. For these
reasons, this study is a preliminary estimate of recidivism rates. It is not an overall assessment
of the program’s effectiveness.
Subjects and Methods

The treatment group consisted of 119 sex offenders who had completed the treatment program
and resided in the community for at least one month by March 1993. Eighty-eight percent of the
offenders were sentenced between 1988 and 1990. These offenders had been out of prison for an
average of 20 months.

The comparison group consisted of a sample of 159 released sex offenders who were
incarcerated in Washington State prisons during the same time period without treatment. These
offenders had been out of prison for an average of 30 months.

In-state and out-of-state criminal records were obtained from official sources.

The maximum follow-up time in both groups was set at three years. Because the offenders lived
in the community for various lengths of time, it was not sufficient to calculate the comparative
recidivism rates by simply counting the number of re-arrests. A technique was required that
could adjust for various lengths of time “at risk’ for both the treatment and comparison group.
The selected technique, the “life table method,” takes into account the observed re-arrest
behaviors, then allows projected estimates of future recidivism rates.
Findings

OFFENDER CHARACTERISTICS

Table 1 compares offender characteristics of the treatment and comparison groups. The results
show that the treatment group included a higher percentage of white offenders and repeat sex
offenders, but a lower percentage of rapists. The analysis of recidivism took these differences
into account and adjusted for them statistically.

Table 1:
OFFENDER CHARACTERISTICS

Treatment Comparison
Characteristics Group Group
(n=119) (n=159)
Average Age 35 years 34 years
White* 90% 84%
Non-White 10% 16%
Prior Adult Convictions of Any Kind?3
Yes 45% 40%
No 55% 60%
Prior Adult Non-Sex Felony Convictions
Yes 22% 22%
No 78% 78%
Prior Adult Sex Conviction*
Yes 18% 8%
No 82% 92%
Rapists4* 15% 25%
Child Molesters 85% 75%
SSOSA Eligibility5
Eligible 71% 78%
Not Eligible 29% 22%

* The difference between the two groups is statistically significant.

ESTIMATED RECIDIVSM RATES

For sex and violent offenses, recidivism rates for the treatment group were slightly lower than
the rates for the comparison group throughout the three-year period. At three years after release,
the re-arrest rates for sex offenses and violent offenses were 11 and 1 percent, respectively, for
the treatment group; and 12 and 3 percent, respectively, for the comparison group (Figure 1).
These differences were not statistically significant. For non-violent offenses, the estimated re-
arrest rate was also not significantly different: 5 percent for the treatment group, and 6 percent
for the comparison group.

The treatment and comparison groups differed in terms of race, prior sex offenses, and type of
offense. These factors were adjusted statistically6 to assess the independent effect of the
treatment program. The adjusted differences in recidivism rates between the two groups
remained statistically non-significant.

Figure 1:
Treated Sex Offenders Have Slightly Lower
Re-Arrest Rates Than Untreated Sex Offenders*

Treatment Program graduates (n=119)

12%
11% Untreated sex offenders released
from Washington prisons (n=159)

6%
5%

3%

1%

Sex Violent Non-Violent

Re-Arrest Re-Arrest Re-Arrest

* The differences are not statistically significant.

WSIPP, June 1994 Rearrest rates are adjusted for three years of follow-up in the community.
Conclusions and Discussion

During the three years of follow-up, estimated recidivism rates in the treatment group were lower
than those in the comparison group for sex and violent offenses, but these difference were not
statistically significant.

To obtain valid information on the effectiveness of treatment, future research should emphasize
the following design elements:

y Minimize bias from self-selection. For example, the Sex Offender Treatment and
Evaluation Project at Atascadero Hospital in California randomly assigned all sex
offenders who volunteered for treatment into either a treatment group or a control group
(Marques et al. 1993).

y Use a larger sample size and longer follow-up time (at least five years) to obtain
sufficient statistical power, as well as information about the long-range effects of
treatment. The Institute’s seven-year follow-up study of sex offenders revealed that, of
the sex offenders who reoffended sexually (regardless of whether they received
treatment), 86 percent did so within five years (Washington State Institute for Public
Policy 1994).
End Notes

1
A November 1993 version of this paper reported a slightly different re-arrest rate for non-violent offenses in the
control group; further analysis has revealed this rate to be 6 percent rather than 7 percent.
2
Offenders were classified according to their first re-arrest following release.
3
These include prior adult felony or misdemeanor convictions, excluding traffic misdemeanor convictions.
4
Rapists are those who were convicted of Rape (First, Second, or Third Degree) for the original offense. These
crime categories most typically include offenders whose victims are adults. Most of the remaining offenders
offended against child victims and are grouped as child molesters. Some of these child molesters were convicted of
Rape of a Child.
5
The Special Sex Offender Sentencing Alternative (SSOSA) allows eligible sex offenders to receive community
supervision and treatment. The statute does not allow the following offenders to receive SSOSA: offenders
convicted of Rape in the First or Second Degree, offenders with prior sex offense convictions, and offenders with
sentences longer than eight years.
6
The adjustment was made using logistic regression analysis, a multivariate method in which the dependent variable
is dichotomous.

References

Marques, J.K. et al. (1992): “Findings and Recommendations from California’s Experimental
Treatment Program.” In: G. C. N. Hall and R. Hirschman (Eds.), Sexual Aggression: Issues in
Etiology and Assessment, Treatment, and Policy. Washington, DC: Hemisphere.

Washington State Department of Corrections (1993): Twin Rivers Corrections Center, Sex
Offender Treatment Program Evaluation Design. Planning and Research Section. Olympia,
WA.

Washington State Institute for Public Policy (1994): The Special Sex Offender Sentencing
Alternative: A Follow-Up Study on Recidivism. Olympia, WA.