Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
How to use the report ....................................................................................................... 5
Over Valued ................................................................. 6
Aerospace & Defence
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ............................................................................. 15
Page 2 of 15
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
Page 3 of 15
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.
Page 4 of 15
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
21.16
6.36
9.36
2.20
21.69
6.55
Neutral
Neutral
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
23.50
324.70
0.40
19.50
189.00
0.24
82.00
342.30
17.00
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
JD SPORTS FASHION
731.00
570.00
863.00
Neutral
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Latest 12 month
Hi/Lo for the
share price
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Strong
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
38
4
1.56
0.94
112
415
-62
1.05
0.67
0.88
1341
0.47
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
eta measures a
shares
volatility/risk
relative to market
(see below)
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta of
1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from the
market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
Page 5 of 15
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
300.80 251.40
218.10 217.70
192.50 165.90
368.40 337.30
844.50 642.73
1018.00 869.50
1507.00 1400.00
12M Hi
363.60
484.00
239.50
414.90
882.08
1113.00
1780.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Buy Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
201.00 166.30
398.50 284.10
72.00
48.00
13.75
6.80
12M Hi
237.20
418.20
79.00
16.25
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Price 12M Lo
234.20 147.90
595.80 463.50
43.98
21.84
277.40 173.40
1414.50 1228.50
12M Hi
256.75
626.10
46.52
291.70
1662.50
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
467.00 348.00
1793.50 1281.00
2619.00 2078.00
12M Hi
481.60
1819.00
2868.50
Beta
1.96
1.45
1.32
1.14
Target
129
969
56
-160
1174
Beta
1.89
1.17
1.86
1.37
1.68
ST Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Target
508
1523
3183
Beta
0.49
0.54
1.00
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
YULE C ATTO
ZOTEFOAMS
Target
193
384
79
23
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER
Beta
0.68
0.55
0.87
1.33
1.09
0.70
0.58
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED
Target
468
477
226
306
549
810
1236
Under Valued
19 November 2012
Price
2292.00
209.30
2254.00
1458.00
160.50
191.00
12M Lo
1647.00
127.50
1724.40
1063.00
127.40
109.00
12M Hi
2501.00
240.30
2573.00
1516.00
251.00
225.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Target
3735
292
6065
1614
307
180
Page 6 of 15
Beta
1.06
1.05
1.44
1.16
1.23
0.99
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price
249.80
181.30
951.00
1503.00
489.30
287.80
44.00
228.75
678.00
610.50
1115.00
52.75
96.50
556.00
745.00
154.10
102.00
57.10
1085.00
2635.00
12M Lo
214.60
87.30
660.00
1176.00
399.30
235.50
35.50
180.00
441.70
239.25
1095.00
38.00
76.00
550.00
446.20
103.50
76.95
34.86
752.50
1727.00
12M Hi
320.80
194.90
1029.00
1549.00
525.00
344.00
54.50
249.50
753.00
627.50
1489.00
66.50
103.62
725.00
815.50
163.00
123.20
63.10
1135.00
2811.00
Price 12M Lo
1037.00 685.00
532.50 436.50
111.75
99.25
219.50 180.90
219.40 128.50
1318.00 905.50
1772.00 800.00
1773.00 1122.00
0.08
0.08
114.00 114.00
268.00 185.00
12M Hi
1244.00
670.00
149.50
257.00
243.90
1390.00
1816.00
1902.00
0.22
203.50
275.00
Target
-22
34
124
2899
70
-183
24
435
-68
281
870
77
40
134
236
33
129
-5
486
519
Beta
0.83
1.51
1.09
0.69
1.13
1.12
0.77
0.64
1.05
1.29
1.00
1.10
1.31
0.87
1.17
1.04
1.67
1.58
1.93
1.46
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Target
602
733
190
267
82
925
1918
1689
0
303
178
Beta
0.76
1.18
1.30
1.41
2.13
0.99
1.27
1.46
0.83
1.60
1.12
Under Valued
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Under Valued
19 November 2012
Price
56.00
376.40
296.00
567.00
364.00
411.50
387.50
958.00
3.88
241.20
2320.00
185.90
95.00
2108.00
628.00
1710.00
12M Lo
54.25
242.90
253.00
427.10
329.30
310.90
235.00
681.50
3.88
220.30
1629.00
155.90
95.00
1708.00
547.00
1397.00
12M Hi
92.00
437.10
358.50
747.50
483.70
448.50
399.75
1022.00
9.00
360.00
2387.00
213.00
219.50
2334.00
740.00
2236.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Target
122
446
587
684
356
326
307
1110
4
450
1651
192
79
1870
546
1685
Page 7 of 15
Beta
1.25
1.58
0.98
2.22
1.45
0.76
1.36
1.40
0.84
1.80
1.02
1.70
1.00
0.84
1.46
1.39
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
462.50 457.00
256.20 256.20
331.80 283.20
315.00 297.05
29.50
9.50
12M Hi
558.00
328.00
361.10
411.25
40.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
1394.00 1070.00
765.50 695.00
352.10 290.40
310.50 246.00
87.25
44.50
754.50 633.50
2290.00 1977.00
12M Hi
1404.00
858.00
361.10
341.20
180.00
759.50
2353.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Price 12M Lo
27.25
18.50
339.00 222.40
1164.00 1000.00
666.00 375.00
24.81
9.36
8.45
2.20
24.50
19.50
341.00 189.00
698.00 570.00
44.00
38.00
274.20 237.20
366.40 302.70
55.75
31.25
294.50 127.30
3542.00 2573.00
947.00 633.00
47.50
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
354.90
1586.00
728.50
25.84
8.45
62.00
356.80
863.00
88.95
313.80
398.70
58.00
301.00
3650.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Beta
0.48
0.42
0.67
0.71
0.84
Target
1117
1223
325
288
-149
885
3008
Beta
0.59
0.58
0.90
0.31
1.40
0.64
0.58
Target
29
310
855
240
35
3
98
431
1318
76
341
443
55
399
3226
569
30
Beta
0.72
0.54
1.31
0.97
1.57
1.13
1.05
0.70
0.48
1.27
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.46
0.72
0.56
1.31
Over Valued
Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW
Target
600
200
225
273
21
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Under Valued
19 November 2012
Price 12M Lo
742.50 498.00
69.00
35.25
640.50 555.00
12M Hi
765.00
69.13
693.00
ST Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Target
615
67
689
Page 8 of 15
Beta
0.49
0.68
0.37
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
677.50 405.00
310.00 242.50
59.00
55.25
12M Hi
720.50
319.75
141.50
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Price 12M Lo
711.00 469.00
342.00 154.10
32.50
16.25
435.30 406.70
146.00 105.80
185.25
96.00
12M Hi
723.00
355.60
47.25
717.00
174.00
230.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
1060.00 787.00
370.80 302.50
167.30 125.10
455.90 369.50
473.90 359.00
734.00 635.00
109.60
97.65
371.00 310.00
12M Hi
1231.00
405.00
177.00
489.60
489.40
790.00
121.50
388.50
Target
419
693
37
368
515
-207
Beta
0.77
1.21
0.79
1.08
0.97
1.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Target
380
-2385
1261
633
1721
2624
1400
1614
Beta
0.56
0.49
0.57
0.34
0.49
0.31
0.43
0.48
Over Valued
Beta
0.41
0.94
0.73
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP
Target
658
254
89
Over Valued
19 November 2012
Price
2427.00
65.75
246.70
736.50
589.50
185.40
1572.00
456.00
326.00
113.00
6.55
145.90
377.10
521.50
2314.00
328.90
119.70
12M Lo
1841.00
26.50
136.70
657.25
441.30
120.70
1001.17
371.20
215.60
91.90
5.61
111.00
269.20
371.30
1508.00
183.30
87.50
12M Hi
2544.00
75.25
259.50
798.00
625.00
191.70
1727.01
518.00
336.40
174.00
12.50
154.30
386.10
526.50
2456.00
357.50
127.70
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Target
4705
36
732
720
594
164
1376
587
354
33
-192
440
297
642
1819
263
152
Page 9 of 15
Beta
1.00
1.66
1.00
0.41
0.91
0.97
1.20
1.37
1.07
1.25
1.22
0.94
0.87
0.79
1.02
0.94
1.22
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E
Price 12M Lo
320.00 255.30
186.75 155.25
139.60
96.00
166.10 102.75
839.50 555.00
392.00 294.00
12M Hi
382.60
207.50
144.20
177.70
871.00
398.50
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
235.00 122.30
119.75
91.25
745.00 635.50
49.00
28.50
460.00 363.50
793.00 618.50
380.50 328.20
190.20 175.10
92.00
59.05
12.50
4.50
1173.00 1069.00
49.00
36.25
273.50 207.50
27.43
26.21
102.25
76.25
104.00
67.50
79.50
25.50
703.50 448.00
138.00
78.50
802.00 616.50
0.28
0.27
12M Hi
237.80
146.50
773.00
51.50
497.25
828.00
451.00
240.60
94.70
13.25
1294.00
56.50
377.50
30.02
119.50
106.00
79.50
733.00
141.75
880.00
6.27
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Price
1664.00
235.50
1199.00
1873.00
471.30
6350.00
2934.50
5.25
12M Lo
1664.00
221.25
991.00
1681.00
452.80
4596.00
2715.50
3.75
832.50
950.00 785.80
12M Hi
2910.00
340.00
1399.00
2206.50
1128.00
7775.00
3988.00
34.00
1502.00
1283.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Target
-305
787
67
1951
1701
85
295
525
744
241
1342
464
362
511
-241
1811
550
262
501
535
22
Beta
1.31
0.46
0.57
1.01
1.07
0.98
1.58
1.43
1.56
1.28
0.66
0.83
0.24
0.54
0.81
1.44
1.60
1.35
0.90
1.31
1.11
LT Rec
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Target
2985
275
940
3451
793
2955
3454
135
2220
1071
Beta
1.71
1.01
1.45
1.43
1.93
0.28
1.42
0.92
2.13
1.77
Under Valued
LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA
Target
962
289
236
142
750
352
Price
1000.50
416.60
259.50
8.07
716.00
76.50
327.60
2098.00
349.90
1340.00
770.00
12M Lo
1000.50
391.95
248.20
7.86
617.50
73.00
322.30
2039.00
254.90
1236.00
587.50
12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
360.00
12.13
968.00
187.75
449.70
2489.00
365.00
1601.00
875.50
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Target
1158
1452
-10
14
473
281
272
10251
242
763
752
Page 10 of 15
Beta
0.76
1.06
1.35
0.89
1.28
1.45
1.38
0.91
0.53
1.08
1.36
Beta
1.29
0.67
1.69
1.63
1.72
0.86
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
136.50 102.70
345.00 285.00
3704.00 3100.00
12M Hi
140.00
372.00
3810.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Price
3.28
2792.50
352.00
591.00
1317.50
2.21
8.75
1729.00
73.00
22.88
12M Lo
2.54
2591.00
273.20
418.33
1317.50
2.05
5.88
1729.00
31.00
18.75
12M Hi
4.00
3111.50
423.00
622.00
1507.50
5.80
12.75
2300.00
101.50
27.38
ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Price 12M Lo
326.00 218.00
506.00 444.00
26.00
22.75
675.00 520.00
1999.00 1495.00
163.00 121.75
114.20
83.10
451.50 312.90
458.70 345.20
179.50 163.50
762.50 612.00
328.70 288.70
140.00 108.50
353.00 280.25
53.75
32.50
410.20 271.60
524.50 459.70
221.60 195.00
206.00 103.50
185.00 130.00
266.00 154.10
1.43
1.43
299.50 213.25
12M Hi
352.10
549.50
34.25
740.00
2115.00
176.00
116.00
477.70
483.40
206.00
821.00
354.20
144.00
390.00
56.75
425.50
551.00
259.20
220.00
189.50
284.10
4.13
310.00
Target
30
5057
372
2482
71
11
3
1464
234
98
Beta
1.04
0.49
0.64
0.28
0.49
0.71
0.94
0.67
0.71
0.86
Price 12M Lo
128.40
72.25
1976.00 1420.00
373.90 292.40
284.00 230.00
21.50
16.75
565.50 352.08
156.50 135.00
80.25
58.00
1307.00 1275.00
300.30 247.70
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Target
-305
787
67
1951
1701
85
295
525
744
241
1342
464
362
511
-241
1811
550
262
501
535
22
109
572
Beta
1.13
1.04
0.69
0.69
1.20
0.97
1.47
1.06
1.14
0.71
1.14
1.09
0.71
0.47
1.15
0.69
0.99
1.65
1.46
1.06
1.73
1.01
1.01
Under Valued
LT Rec
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
BIG YELLOW GROUP
BRITISH LAND
C APITAL & REGIONAL
C LS HOLDINGS
DERWENT LONDON
DEVELOPMENT SEC S.
GRAINGER
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES
HAMMERSON
HELIC AL BAR
LAND SEC URITIES GROUP
C APITAL SHOPC TS.GROUP
MC KAY SEC URITIES
MUC KLOW (A & J) GROUP
QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS
SHAFTESBURY
SEGRO
ST MODWEN PROPS.
TOWN C ENTRE SEC URITIES
UNITE GROUP
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPAC E GROUP
Beta
0.85
0.71
0.35
Over Valued
Target
242
297
3735
12M Hi
149.90
2074.00
461.90
314.00
23.00
595.50
231.75
93.50
1766.00
324.80
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Target
94
1015
1133
251
18
676
251
-62
1608
299
Page 11 of 15
Beta
0.89
1.41
1.04
1.13
0.86
0.82
0.89
0.53
0.81
0.74
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
330.20 181.00
340.60
169.80 118.00
184.60
9595.00 9175.00 10250.00
290.00 247.50
296.50
175.00 115.63
189.75
833.50 590.00
876.50
98.05
59.50
102.80
1.89
0.77
3.61
109.10
90.55
128.30
282.00 281.40
431.50
289.40 209.30
321.50
372.80 310.40
414.90
936.00 756.50 1105.00
71.80
63.25
152.50
1250.00 989.00 1373.00
1518.00 1166.00 1650.00
1236.00 966.00 1309.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Beta
1.12
0.77
0.81
0.96
0.71
0.87
0.90
0.66
1.46
1.04
1.61
1.55
1.13
1.29
0.77
1.34
1.28
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
Target
84
91
8754
175
103
235
94
111
52
195
95
5
1469
90
961
1010
4056
Price 12M Lo
158.50 158.50
2095.00 1699.00
994.50 838.00
378.30 150.50
960.00 666.00
385.00 317.00
1027.00 778.50
280.00 192.25
713.00 602.00
38.00
23.75
692.00 544.00
573.00 412.00
1008.00 861.50
961.00 755.50
438.00 299.00
203.90 187.50
560.00 369.80
244.10 230.00
77.25
58.85
225.00 137.50
350.10 270.10
2836.00 1812.00
34.25
25.25
23.75
21.25
584.00 500.00
349.80 323.00
290.00 235.80
121.00 120.50
832.00 475.00
165.60 153.20
96.70
75.95
85.00
58.20
430.60 326.10
350.75 304.50
199.75 158.25
417.00 316.50
207.70 173.20
550.00 458.00
79.80
75.80
34.25
18.50
97.00
40.50
45.00
36.25
344.75 191.00
61.00
42.00
12M Hi
219.50
2400.00
1172.00
388.30
992.00
410.50
1167.00
285.00
781.50
41.00
727.00
589.00
1075.00
966.50
497.90
263.00
586.00
292.10
92.50
310.00
392.80
2878.00
35.00
39.50
652.00
497.00
300.80
163.75
847.50
228.80
117.50
89.90
461.40
391.00
264.63
447.00
256.60
602.00
113.00
34.50
98.50
49.50
354.88
62.50
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Target
256
1067
884
252
535
645
665
370
410
59
518
790
522
604
337
260
288
231
95
403
569
1167
76
44
1063
262
279
193
574
219
89
43
493
386
256
432
200
464
134
42
41
49
503
149
Page 12 of 15
Beta
0.88
1.09
1.07
1.61
0.45
0.78
0.52
0.31
0.50
0.77
0.70
1.02
#NA
0.17
0.98
1.04
1.11
0.58
1.09
0.91
1.26
0.82
1.19
0.71
1.41
1.42
0.56
0.42
0.72
1.29
1.44
1.31
0.88
0.83
1.27
0.80
1.55
0.58
1.46
1.28
0.52
0.94
0.90
0.78
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price 12M Lo
219.00 176.50
34.91
27.28
560.00 389.30
69.00
65.75
855.00 612.00
157.80 157.80
12M Hi
236.80
45.16
602.00
85.20
892.00
191.25
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
195.70 164.70
383.75 288.00
1190.00 1050.00
641.00 345.86
175.70 175.70
785.50 460.00
1230.00 1086.00
167.60 167.60
251.00 159.60
268.00 230.40
74.25
31.00
12M Hi
218.80
425.00
1390.00
659.50
344.00
801.00
1412.00
252.00
266.75
297.20
91.75
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Buy Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Target
147
355
1214
422
383
283
1340
177
458
280
-26
Beta
1.32
0.99
0.79
0.79
1.00
0.83
0.95
1.35
1.43
0.94
0.90
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SSE
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP
Beta
0.90
0.67
0.54
1.28
0.03
0.53
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON
Target
253
64
475
100
564
129
Price 12M Lo
313.50 278.80
688.00 597.50
599.50 599.50
1364.00 1209.00
1524.00 1454.00
647.00 589.00
12M Hi
341.30
711.00
796.00
1461.00
1796.00
736.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Target
444
760
709
1599
1362
602
Page 13 of 15
Beta
0.47
0.52
0.54
0.44
0.34
0.49
Intellisys
19 November 2012
DISCLAIMER
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present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial
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representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness
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No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
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Page 14 of 15
Intellisys
19 November 2012
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
Page 15 of 15