MissionZero Lecture Moneyball GREENBUILD SF

Matthew Grocoff, Esq.
, LEED-GA audio & video Principal, THRIVE not included in this PDF
Slides in this presentation may be used with proper credit for noncommercial use only.
Original presentation included
mgrocoff@gmail.com
734-224-8877
To arrange speaking engagements, contact: Bonnie Schmick, Clean Energy Coalition bonnies@cec-mi.org | (734) 585-5720, ext. 33
a net zero consulting collaborative
Tuesday, November 20, 12
Shelter from the Storm: How to Destroy the Planet from the Comfort of Home Matthew Grocoff, Esq., LEED-GA, Living Buildings, Net Zero Energy Consulting mgrocoff@gmail.com 734-224-8877
a net zero consulting collaborative

350
". . .too high to maintain the climate to which humanity, wildlife, and the rest of the biosphere are adapted." - James Hansen
This is the number Bill McKibben says is the most important number in the world.
0
350 is for the climate scientists . . . 0 is for YOU. This is your tool.
Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 and climate requires that net CO2 emissions approach zero
- J Hansen et al.
SAYS REQUIRES - this is NOT A SUGGESTION!!! Its a REQUIREMENT if we choose to continue to enjoy the type of planet to which humanity adapted. Its zero - or nothing.
USA TODAY - best green home in America - ATLANTIC - Sustainable Perfection - but its NOT - well register for LIVING BUILDING CHALLENGE and target the ideal as the indicator of success. Fewer than 100 net zero homes First documented total zeh in MICHIGAN Oldest in AMERICA - NOT A TITLE I WANT TO HOLD FOR LONG
Everything a couple could dream of . . . asbestos siding
DREAM
HOUSE
zero insulation except for a layer of newspaper dated 1901
DREAM
HOUSE
zero insulation except for a layer of newspaper dated 1901
DREAM
HOUSE
lead paint
DREAM
HOUSE
windows sealed shut for over 20 years
DREAM
HOUSE
carpeting
DREAM
HOUSE
1989 refrigerator
DREAM
HOUSE
5 gallon ush toilet
DREAM
HOUSE
genuine certied faux pink marble Formica & pink towel curtains
DREAM
HOUSE
3 gpm faucets
DREAM
HOUSE
1957 Mueller Climatrol gas furnace
DREAM
HOUSE
T R A D I T I ONA L B OX SCORES MISLEAD HERS 37 E N E R G Y B A L L NET 0
Zero is the only rational target. Otherwise we get bogged down in all the wrong metrics. 20% better than code is an arbitrary target being measured by another arbitrary measure. We have HERS score of 37 but an actual performance of net zero. Somewhere between 37 and 0 is what all of our measurements are missing, We need to play ENERGYBALL.
ENERGY BALL
2002 Oakland As - Lost top 3 players - won 20 consecutive games with the lowest payroll in major league. High performing. Low cost. They did it by looking at the right numbers.
MEASURING WRONG THINGS
For 100 years baseball had been collecting enormous banks of data. But more data doesnt help. You have to nd the signal through the noise.
STOLEN BASES RBI BATTING AVERAGE

Baseball measured things in isolation from the whole. Paying more for a player with great RBI didnt actually help the team win games.
BASE ON BALLS OB%

BETTER PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Turns out - there are better performance indicators.
IF YOU DONT KNOW WHERE YOURE GOING... YOU MIGHT NOT GET THERE YOGI BERRA
Psychology of the Endgame
0
THIS IS THE END GAME - ZERO EMISSIONS - ZERO WASTE. Harvest own energy, water and manage own waste.
MISSION ZERO
100%ENERGY H2O ZERO WASTE RESTORATIVE
These goals will inform the decisions you make EVERY DAY.
IDEAL
This is the ideal. My daughter, Jane, will NEVER know what its like to grow up in a carbon consuming home. Shes the rst generation in human history that will be able to make that claim. Exciting times!
This is the home my daughter Jane is growing up in.
GAUSS History - Philip and Elizabeth Gauss - we bought the house from their daughter Gertrude who was born in our Parlor in 1920.
GAUSS History
GAUSS History - we still have those hydrangeas
GAUSS History - Philip Gauss saloon. Its the workplace of the owner of our house. Now its Grizzly Peak brew pub that we visit. This photo was the day our neighborhood was wired for electricity and began converting coal to kWh to put carbon into the atmosphere.
WHEN GOING BACK MAKES SENSE YOU MOVE FORWARD WENDELL BERRY
more wendell berry - less Angry Birds
PATT ERNS OF N AT URE
MYTH OF THE NOBLE HOUSE - we like to say that old homes are the greenest
homes. - managed own waste with outhouse / net zero water - with well and cistern / natural daylight / natural ventilation / chicken coop / rabbit hutch / veg garden / local materials . . . BUT NOT SUSTAINABLE PERFECTION
1200LBS MONTH
COAL
Gauss heated & cooked with coal - 1899 typical stove per MONTH 100 lbs of ash
RIVERS SEWERS
This is Allen Creek on Washington St. - part of creek runs next to our home. Became industrial sewer. Now buried in Drainpipe underground - no one in Ann Arbor knows its there.
COOKING HEATING
Only humans burn things
Before coal we burned HUGE volumes of wood for cooking and heat - only humans burn things.
15 - 20 CORDS
4 x 16 x 40
Before coal used 15-20 cords per year. 4x16x40 stack - in 1800 Michigan had INEXHAUSTIBLE white pine forests - squirrel could go from upper peninsula of Michigan to N. FL w/o touching ground
95% LOSS
A century later - shrank by 95% - Hermansville MI 1890 - cant go back to burning wood
LIGHTING
Lamp stores sold any kind of oil that burned - whale oil, lard, kerosene, camphene, alcohol, paraffin
10X CO2
Not so noble - cant go back to candle light -
This is what all those incandescent bulbs look like from space. Looks like the world is on re. In a way it is. Were burning millions of years of stored solar energy and dumping it into our atmosphere. And - its not equitable - it aint the third world doing this.
130 MILLION HOMES

Homes responsible for 1/4 of carbon emissions.
NEW NZE 2020

California - very ambitious net zero by 2020. But how much does that REDUCE our carbon output?
0
We can keep adding net zero homes - it wont bring down emissions unless we address existing buildings. 397ppm + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 still equals 397. We need some carbon subtraction. Old homes that emit carbon must be reduced to near zero emission.
IF IT EXISTS . . . IT MUST BE POSSIBLE

- Amory Lovins
PROOF OF CONCEPT
WHATS POSSIBLE
9,523 - 7,483 = +2,040

Oct 2011 thru Oct 2012
On-site, all-electric - produce more than consume
31 MBtu
21 KBtu / SF
AS OF OCT 2012 - INCLUDES 2WKS VOLT
Total Current Charges
-$88.26
SEP 2012 ENERGY BILL -$88.26

recent utility bill
$283,004 30 YEARS
7% ($234,000 at 5.5%)
WEALTH CREATING - including RECs and eliminated utility bill we have a cash swing of $283,004. Assuming energy ination of 7%. You may say that its unfair to use 7% energy ination since we dont know what price will be in future. AND THATS EXACTLY THE POINT . . . .
SEARCHING FOR GAS
We keep looking for MORE stuff to burn - I KNOW - youre saying we dont know that energy prices will rise by 7% annually! - Thats the point! Not even the BEST commodity trader in the world can tell you the RAW cost of coal, crude oil, or natural gas will be at the closing bell today. BUT - anyone can tell you that the RAW cost of wind or solar today, tomorrow and 10,000 years.
LOSE LESS, USE LESS . . . .THEN PRODUCE

e! m ts ha t
EAT THE FEET

Singapore based energy performance expert Lee Eng Lock says that efficiency should be like Chinese cooking. Use everything. Eat the feet. Anything that consumes energy MUST BE QUESTIONED.
SUN POWERED
Were not hippies bathing in our pasta water. We have greater health and comfort than most homes. We have the same appliances than most - were smart about how we choose them and how we control them (and dont let them control us) - Wendell Berry - How to be a poet - . . . Stay away from screens - of any kind
SMART STATS
Control HVAC NOT with programmable stats - but with SMART stats. Use technology to help provide superior service and lower energy cost.
LECTURE GRAPH [PERMISSION TO NAP]

Smart stat optimizes compressor stage - ensures we get 100% benet for every unit of energy. If energy is used it should be USEFUL.
LIGHTS ARE ON BUT NOBODYS
H O M E
Snooki syndrome. Should use vac/occ sensors on EVERY switch - no exceptions. If energy is used it should be USEFUL. Lights on in unoccupied room have a percentage of usefulness of ZERO. Need to turn model on its head.
Close 15% of U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants

CFL are 8-Track Cassette of lighting world. Switching to LED could close 200 of the 1400 U.S. coal plants. Lighting is 18% of U.S. energy = 252 coal plants. LED 80% more efficient so .80 x 252 = 200.
NATURAL DAYLIGHTING
a.k.a. We Opened Our Curtains
NATURAL DAYLIGHTING
a.k.a. We Opened Our Curtains
FIRST STRATEGY - design and rely on primarily natural daylighting. Old homes have them but others can be retrot. Heres how technology can be biophilic - tube skylights, ber optics, reective adjustable shades to bounce light into space.
GETTING SCREWED IN THE SHOWER 16,000 GALLONS HOT WATER

SHOWERS CONSUME ENERGY!!!
95% 45% INDUCTION
ALL ELECTRIC APPLIANCES

Same Service - Less Energy
gas stove very inefficient - cheap energy for now - but inefficient - our 1969 Magic Chef - 3 pilot lights 24/7/365 . . . OY! there are few appliances we live without: microwave; toaster; mixer; computers; stereos; fridge (19cf); christmas lights (on timer); saws; drills; sanders; electric mower (and reel); LIVE SMART
FORD brought All-electric Focus to our all-electric house for centerfold spread of MyFORD magazine and ranked us the #1 Electric Innovator. But theyll be upset with next photo . . .
TANK FULL O SUNSHINE

Our brand new Chevy Volt - we use excess solar to help charge - well get more panels for kitchen roof and be net zero at home charging for car as well.
ROOT CELLAR
Return of the root cellar
When going back makes sense
We can use modern design, engineering and technology to go back to the smart things the Gauss did.
ROOT CELLAR
Tell your clients its a wine cellar . . . .
I C E BOX
Can we go back to the ICE BOX? We used to harvest ice from lakes . . .
. . . . and deliver them in wagons along with COAL . . .
P H A S E CHANGE
But ICE is just a phase change material . . .
P H A S E CHANGE
What if we use phase change material in the fridge? Students at Cal Tech and University of Mexico City designed a fridge with smarter compartments to access frequently used items - and powered it with a phase change material that requires the fridge to run only once a day!
RESTORE +
We restore - rather than replace - our 100+ year old windows - kept the materials, stories, beauty and elegance used modern weatherstripping and storms to achieve near Energy Star 3.0 level of air tightness.
ONLY R-13 WALLS

Did NOT do a gut rehab - saved ALL original materials - removed no plaster - kept SAME FOOTPRINT - NO Addition. only R-13 in walls - NOT ABOUT PERFECTION its about PERFORMANCE!!!!!!
ONLY R-29 ATTIC

FRESH AIR
GO DEEP
GO NUCLEAR
93 million miles
Go nuclear - but put the plant at least 93 million miles away and power it wirelessly.
290
800,00 YEARS
Go back to the simple math. 290 was where we were for all of human history until begin of Ind Rev.
350
350 is the number we must get below
397
397 is were we peaked in June of this year (and it will be higher next year - as has been). That correlates with almost a 1C degree of temp increase. In perspective - a decrease of 1C caused the little ice age. This is what a 1 degree increase looks like . . .
860
This projection is made in C-ROADS, a scientifically reviewed climate simulator. The analysis accounts for the voluntary emissions reductions pledges of parties to the UNFCCC. This CO2 level represents a global temperature increase of about 4.4 C. (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)
860 is where UNFCCC calculates well be in 2100 if all nations meet their voluntary pledges.
This is my daughter JANE. Shell be 92 in the year 2100. These are NOT the storms of our grandchildren. They are OUR storms. They are Janes storms. Ambitiousness of this goal is matched by its urgency. Scale of the challenge is daunting. But it begins with everyone in this room.
The greatest possible irony would be if in our endless quest to ll our lives with comfort and happiness we created a world that had neither. - Bill Bryson
We PROVEN we CAN live in a world of comfort and joy AND live on current solar income
We will have a much higher quality of life than those who are addicted to to fossil fuels And even if were wrong we create a healthier world where we spend more time with our families and communities, we know our neighbors, shop locally, ride bikes and walk well-traveled sidewalks and respect the sanctity of creation . . .
0
IF WE CAN DO IT . . .
Like Ray Anderson said about a little carpet company that could . . . If we can do it, anyone can. If anyone can, everyone can. That includes YOU.
Stay in touch
Matthew Grocoff, Esq., LEED-GA
mgrocoff@gmail.com 734-224-8877

MissionZero Lecture Moneyball GREENBUILD SF

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Matthew Grocoff, Esq.

Original presentation included

a net zero consulting collaborative

Tuesday, November 20, 12

a net zero consulting collaborative

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Everything a couple could dream of . . . asbestos siding

Tuesday, November 20, 12

zero insulation except for a layer of newspaper dated 1901

Tuesday, November 20, 12

zero insulation except for a layer of newspaper dated 1901

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

windows sealed shut for over 20 years

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

5 gallon ush toilet

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

1957 Mueller Climatrol gas furnace

T R A D I T I ONA L B OX SCORES MISLEAD HERS 37 E N E R G Y B A L L NET 0

Tuesday, November 20, 12

MEASURING WRONG THINGS

Tuesday, November 20, 12

STOLEN BASES RBI BATTING AVERAGE

BASE ON BALLS OB%

BETTER PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

Turns out - there are better performance indicators.

Psychology of the Endgame

100%ENERGY H2O ZERO WASTE RESTORATIVE

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

This is the home my daughter Jane is growing up in.

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

GAUSS History - we still have those hydrangeas

Tuesday, November 20, 12

more wendell berry - less Angry Birds

PATT ERNS OF N AT URE

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Tuesday, November 20, 12

Not so noble - cant go back to candle light -

Tuesday, November 20, 12

130 MILLION HOMES

Homes responsible for 1/4 of carbon emissions.

NEW NZE 2020

IF IT EXISTS . . . IT MUST BE POSSIBLE

9,523 - 7,483 = +2,040

On-site, all-electric - produce more than consume

Total Current Charges

SEP 2012 ENERGY BILL -$88.26

recent utility bill

SEARCHING FOR GAS

Tuesday, November 20, 12

LOSE LESS, USE LESS . . . .THEN PRODUCE

Tuesday, November 20, 12