Challenges for the Solar Industry

Johana Trujillo and James Hunt

Outline
The context The challenges
Photovoltaics (PV) Solar Thermal Electric (STE)

The potential impacts on GHG emissions

Power = Development

Power = Unsustainable

Development = Unsustainable?
Sustainable sources of power = Sustainable development

Solar

Photovoltaics (PV)

Photons in sunlight hit the solar panel and are absorbed by semiconducting materials, such as silicon. Electrons (negatively charged) are knocked loose from their atoms, allowing them to flow through the material to produce electricity. The complementary positive charges that are also created are called holes and flow in the direction opposite of the electrons in a silicon solar panel. An array of solar cells converts solar energy into a usable amount of DC electricity.

PV - Technologies
Structure Fixed Modules Mono-crystalline Inverters Central inverter for entire system String inverter Module inverter

Single-axis tracking system Dual axis tracking system

Polycrystalline Copper indium diselenide (CIS) Cadmium telluride (CdTe) Amorphous silicon

PV Technical Challenges
Resource Availability
Silicon:

Pure Silicon
High quality Used to be a problem New plants built (2004) Higher efficiency Silicon reclaiming Cheaper Less energy Efficiency compromised (?)

Metallurgical Silicon

PV Technical Challenges
Resource Availability (continuation)
Tellurium (CdTe) Indium Selenium (CuInSe2) Cadmium (environmental issues)

Thin Film

Cooper Glass

PV Technical Challenges

PV Technical Challenges
Efficiency

Monocrystalline-Silicon Efficiency: 10 - 18% Polycrystalline-Silicon Efficiency: 9 - 13% Amorphous-Silicon Efficiency: 6 - 8% CdTe Efficiency: 7 - 10% CIS Efficiency: 9 - 12%

Space requirement

PV Technical Challenges

PV Technical Challenges
Space Requirement

PV Technical Challenges

Dispachability

The sun is an intermittent source of energy

Storage
Batteries Fuel Cells Grid

PV Technical Challenges
Data Availability
Energy Yield Calculation Weather data Irradiation data Topographic data

Cleaning
Water Vibration

PV - commercial challenges - cost

Cost, cost, cost, cost, cost, Today
Euro 4.5 8 /Wp installed USD 5.5 10 /Wp installed

PV - commercial challenges - cost

LEC comparison

PV - commercial challenges - cost

High cost = Gov support
Investment subsidies Feed-in-tariffs (Spain: Royal Decree 1578/2008) Green certificates (UK - ROCs)

PV - commercial challenges - cost

Future cost reductions
Prices have fallen by 20% every

doubling of output - LR
Technical challenges to keep prices

falling at historic rates

When will we get grid parity ?

PV - commercial challenges - costs

PV - commercial challenges - other

Revenue certainty political uncertainty
Japanese, Spanish examples

Financing
Large capital investments credit crunch Low but constant paybacks

Securing supply less of an issue now Emerging technology problems increase risks/costs Good people, experience, etc. hampering

development

What is possible - Germany

Stable feed-in tariff 50% global demand Now >5GW installed (ish) Bavaria 2% total supply Small nuclear plant

PV projects - buildings
CIS Tower Manchester
The UK's largest solar power project

to date,
400 KWp which will generate

200,000 kWh per year

5.5 million

PV projects utility big

Nevada, USA 10 MW PV First Solar thin film modules 500 MW CCGT

PV projects utility v big

Spain - Parque

Fotovoltaico Olmedilla de Alarcon

60 MW 85 GWh/yr Bigger to come
3 GWs India ?

Solar Thermal Electrical (STE)

Parabolic trough

Central receiver system - power tower

Parabolic dish engine

Linear Fresnel collector

Solar Thermal Electrical (STE)

Storage = dispatchable renewable power !

Solar Thermal - Technology

Performance data of various CSP technologies

Solar Thermal Technical Challenges

Cleaning

Water

Storage

Sensible Heat Storage Change of temperature occurs Latent Heat Storage Change of phase occurs Thermochemical Storage reversible chemical reaction occurs

Land Requirement for collectors Location constrains

Solar Thermal Technical Challenges

Data Availability
Energy Yield Calculation Weather data Irradiation data Topographic data

More environmental impact New technologies Qualified personnel

Higher foot print Less bankable

STE - commercial challenges - cost

Cost, cost As with PV gov support important

STE - commercial challenges - cost

Learning effect

costs expected to fall as capacity increases

But what about

transmission costs?

STE - commercial challenges - others

Suitable locations far from demand centres

transmission
Lead times? Expertise Contractually complicated EPC wrap / O&M Getting project finance complicated - bankability

STE Project examples

9 SEGS plants California Troughs 1984 - 1991 354MW 936,384 mirrors > 6.5 km2.

STE Project examples

Andasol 1 Spain First troughs in Europe 2008 50MWe Thermal storage 510, 000 m2 collectors Andasol 2 & 3 to follow

STE Project examples

PS10 Spain Solar power tower 2007 11MWe 624 heliostats 115 m tower

STE Project examples

Kimberlina Fresnel reflectors 2008 5MWe demonstration 177MWe plant in

development - California

GHG emissions to 2020

125 250 megatones CO2 = 0.3 0.6 % global

emissions in 2020

GHG emissions beyond 2020

IPCC estimates CO2

emissions to reduce by >80% to carrying capacity

Solar to play vital part

in meeting that target

The futures bright the futures solar

www.mottmac.com James.Hunt@mottmac.com Johana.Trujillo@mottmac.com