QUICK RETURNING STAYERS

Although some racehorses are at their best when they have been off the
track for a lengthy period, generally speaking if a horse is returned to the track
quickly after its previous outing, then its worth serious consideration.
If we look at the stats from the last four seasons, we can see how there is
a gradual decline in strike-rate (and gradual increase in level stakes loss) as the
lay-off time increases.

LAY-OFF TIME

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

Last ran <4 days ago

612

5088

12.03

-335.84

-6.60

Last ran 4-7 days ago

2152

21083

10.21

-5156.35

-24.46

Last ran 8-15 days ago

5455

58333

9.35

-17460.54

-29.93

Last ran 16-31 days ago

5630

60885

9.25

-17775.26

-29.19

Last ran 32-47 days ago

1551

18198

8.52

-4847.79

-26.64

Last ran 48-79 days ago

923

11683

7.90

-3301.37

-28.26

Last ran 80-111 days ago

314

4705

6.67

-1402.06

-29.80

Last ran 112-223 days ago

901

12669

7.11

-4016.91

-31.71

Last ran 224-547 days ago

460

7728

5.95

-3135.28

-40.57

Last ran 548+ days ago

40

1087

3.68

-471.14

-43.34

As can be seen, a gradual but definite drop in performance the longer a

horse is away from the racetrack. For this system we are going to concentrate
only on those runners which had reappeared within seven days of their last
outing. Over the last four seasons the results from backing all horses brought
back out within a week of their last run are.
YEAR

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

2001

639

6603

9.68

-1944.36

-29.45

2002

665

6376

10.43

-1420.63

-22.28

2003

657

6203

10.59

-1092.89

-17.62

2004

803

6989

11.49

-1034.32

-14.80

TOTAL

2764

26171

10.56

-5492.20

-20.99

Next well examine the results of the starting odds of these runners
obviously the inclusion of those horses which were sent off at huge odds is going
to skew the figures

SP

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

<4/1

1164

3842

30.30

-153.70

-4.00

4/1 to 11/2

548

3290

16.66

-191.00

-5.81

6/1 to 15/2

325

2754

11.80

-282.00

-10.24

8/1 to 9/1

196

2166

9.05

-336.50

-15.54

10/1 to 11/1

122

1915

6.37

-546.00

-28.51

12/1 to 14/1

189

3182

5.94

-561.00

-17.63

16/1 to 18/1

76

1649

4.61

-355.00

-21.53

20/1 to 22/1

57

1813

3.14

-612.00

-33.76

25/1 to 28/1

40

1556

2.57

-510.00

-32.78

33/1 to 40/1

30

1867

1.61

-805.00

-43.12

50/1 and more

17

2137

0.80

-1140.00

-53.35

The <4/1 price band gives us a 30.30% strike rate with a level stakes loss
of only 4%, therefore it is this price range we will consider. The rundown of these
runners for the four year period under scrutiny is as follows
YEAR

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

2001

267

876

30.48

-16.36

-1.87

2002

278

911

30.52

-31.13

-3.42

2003

280

928

30.17

-51.39

-5.54

2004

339

1127

30.08

-54.82

-4.86

TOTAL

1164

3742

30.30

-153.70

-4.00

A very consistent strike rate and only a small level stakes loss each year
not bad at all considering the large sample size.
Next well look at how these runners perform over different distances.
DISTANCE

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

5 - <6 furlongs

227

725

31.31

-2.20

-0.30

6 - <7 furlongs

184

653

28.18

-54.71

-8.38

7 - <8 furlongs

150

528

28.41

-26.09

-4.94

8 - <9 furlongs

159

584

27.23

-78.95

-13.52

9 - <10 furlongs

72

235

30.64

-18.67

-7.94

10 - <11.5 furlongs

108

377

28.65

-13.46

-3.57

11.5 - <12.5 furlongs

142

431

32.95

-20.64

-4.79

12.5 - <13.5 furlongs

21

41

51.22

20.46

49.90

13.5 - <14.5 furlongs

33

91

36.26

13.93

15.31

14.5 - <16 furlongs

16

34

47.06

11.26

33.12

16 - <17 furlongs

44

123

35.77

11.07

9.00

17 furlongs and more

20

40.00

4.30

21.50

Undoubtedly a clear cut-off point there at the 12.5 furlong mark. For some
reason, backing horses which are brought out again within 7 days of their last
race and which are sent off at odds of less than 4/1, lose you money at every
distance below 12.5 furlongs yet win you money at this trip or longer.
In fact, sticking to these three simple rules, this system has made a profit
in nine of the last ten seasons
YEAR

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

1995

29

77

37.66

+13.31

+17.29

1996

25

59

42.37

+11.13

+18.86

1997

35

90

38.89

+15.91

+17.68

1998

27

79

34.18

+3.23

+4.09

1999

25

72

34.72

+4.11

+5.71

2000

33

90

36.67

+6.42

+7.13

2001

31

72

43.06

+16.61

+23.07

2002

24

77

31.17

-4.86

-6.31

2003

31

70

44.29

+24.25

+34.64

2004

36

90

40.00

+25.02

+27.80

TOTAL

441

1280

34.45

+63.95

+5.00

The rules are.

a) Horse must have last raced less than 8 days ago
b) Horse must be less than 4/1 starting price
c) Only consider races longer than 12f in distance
Results from 2004
06/01/04
08/01/04
08/01/04
08/01/04
09/01/04
14/01/04

SOA
SOA
SOA
SOA
WOA
WOA

4+H
4+(04+(04+(04+BH
4+(0-

PHANTOM STOCK
PADDY MUL
KAGOSHIMA
KYALAMI
PHANTOM STOCK
IRELAND'S EYE

2
1
2
4
1
4

0.67
2.25
3.5
3.5
1.5
3

16/01/04
21/01/04
27/01/04
31/01/04
03/02/04
05/02/04
06/02/04
12/02/04
19/02/04
02/03/04
08/03/04
08/03/04
13/03/04
14/03/04
16/03/04
17/03/04
30/03/04
02/04/04
10/04/04
23/04/04
29/04/04
29/04/04
02/05/04
07/05/04
07/05/04
15/05/04
20/05/04
26/05/04
02/06/04
03/06/04
03/06/04
03/06/04
04/06/04
04/06/04
13/06/04
16/06/04
18/06/04
19/06/04
20/06/04
24/06/04
24/06/04
26/06/04
02/07/04
02/07/04
08/07/04
08/07/04
08/07/04

WOA
LIA
SOA
LIA
SOA
SOA
WOA
SOA
SOA
LIA
WOA
WOA
WOA
SOA
SOA
WOA
SOA
SOA
HAY
WAR
LIA
LIA
SAL
CHE
NOT
SOA
GOO
RIP
NOT
HAM
HAM
CHP
WOA
WOA
SAL
HAM
AYR
WAR
WAR
HAM
HAM
DON
WAR
HAY
FOL
WAR
WAR

4+S
4+S
4+H
4+N(0
4+BH
4+H
4+SH
4+H
4+H
4+I
4+(04+(04+H
4+(04+I(0
4+H
4+(04+H
4+H
4+(03+(03+(04+H
4+G3
3H
4+H
4+H
4+H
3+H
4+H
4+H
3+H
4+I
4+I
3H
4+AH
3+AMH
3+H
3+H
3+DH
3+DH
4+H
4+BH
3H
4+H
4+H
3+H

VINCENT
MYSTERIUM
LAMPOS
FALL IN LINE
ALTITUDE DANCER
ALTITUDE DANCER
THE LAST MOHICAN
REFLEX BLUE
BOX BUILDER
RADIANT BRIDE
BUZ KIRI
RADIANT BRIDE
PHANTOM STOCK
STRAVMOUR
ORINOCOVSKY
AVEIRO
MONSAL DALE
FFIFFIFFER
BENBYAS
MERCURIOUS
LEOPHIN DANCER
SERAPH
SENTRY
SYSTEMATIC
BILL BENNETT
MADIBA
COLD TURKEY
RED SUN
MY LEGAL EAGLE
PARTY PLOY
TRUSTED MOLE
QUEDEX
ROMIL STAR
AVEIRO
TUDOR BELL
MILLENNIUM HALL
MERRYMAKER
MOONSHINE BEACH
BAKIRI
INCHNADAMPH
LATALOMNE
GLORY QUEST
TRUSTED MOLE
DUNLEA DANCER
TOM BELL
RED RIVER REBEL
MOONSHINE BEACH

1
4
2
1
2
1
2
4
2
1
2
4
7
1
2
1
7
10
1
5
3
9
3
1
2
2
4
2
1
1
6
5
1
5
2
1
1
4
4
1
4
1
8
6
4
2
1

1.38
3
1.5
0.3
1.88
2.25
2.5
1.75
3
3
2.25
2
2.5
3.33
3.33
1.88
3
3.5
3.5
1.25
3.5
3.33
3.33
2.5
1.75
2.75
2.75
1.88
3
3.5
3.5
2.75
0.83
1.38
3.33
2.5
2.75
3.33
3.5
3
2
3.5
2.5
2.5
3
2.25
2.75

08/07/04
09/07/04
10/07/04
11/07/04
11/07/04
12/07/04
14/07/04
16/07/04
24/07/04
29/07/04
01/08/04
04/08/04
04/08/04
08/08/04
12/08/04
19/08/04
27/08/04
27/08/04
28/08/04
30/08/04
06/09/04
06/09/04
06/09/04
13/09/04
13/09/04
16/09/04
29/09/04
30/09/04
02/10/04
04/10/04
16/10/04
06/11/04
12/11/04
17/11/04
10/12/04
13/12/04
14/12/04

WAR
SOA
HAM
HAY
BAT
SOA
LIN
HAM
NOT
CAR
CHE
NCL
YAR
RED
SAL
YOR
NMJ
THI
GOO
NCL
WAR
WAR
NCL
RED
EDI
PON
SAL
GOO
NMR
PON
CAT
DON
WOA
SOA
WOA
WOA
SOA

3+H
4+H
3+H
3+H
4+H
4+H
3+H
3+H
4+SH
4+AH
4+H
3+H
3+DH
3+H
3+H
3H
3+H
3+H
3+L
3+H
3+AH
3+AH
3+H
3+H
3+H
3+
3+H
3+H
3H
3+H
3+N(0
3+H
3+BH
3+H
3+H
3+H
3+H

DARN GOOD
THE KELT
ELLWAY HEIGHTS
MAGIC COMBINATION
MOONSHINE BEACH
NEXT FLIGHT
TUNGSTEN STRIKE
ELUSIVE DREAM
BANNINGHAM BLAZE
VANDENBERGHE
HIGH ACTION
RIYADH
BOBSLEIGH
TONI ALCALA
TILLA
LOST SOLDIER THREE
SENDINTANK
MASTER WELLS
SWIFT TANGO
SENDINTANK
OOPS
SALUT SAINT CLOUD
TRILEMMA
INCHPAST
SHARADI
CORRIB ECLIPSE
NAWOW
DARN GOOD
QUARRYMOUNT
RESTART(I)
SNOW'S RIDE
SENDINTANK
ROMIL STAR
MADIBA
KING FLYER
GARDEN SOCIETY
MAGIC RED

2
9
5
1
1
6
1
1
1
3
1
2
3
5
2
1
1
1
2
1
4
8
1
1
1
1
7
4
1
12
2
1
3
1
6
1
3

2.5
1.63
3
2.25
2
3
1.88
0.44
3
3
1.25
3.5
2.25
3.5
2.5
3
1.75
3
2.5
0.5
3.5
1.63
0.57
1.75
2
1.5
2.75
2.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
0.91
3.5
3.5
3
2.5
0.91