Projected Energy Demands For the Countries of India and Pakistan By the Year 2050

Partha P. Choudhury Leo Flores

Global Energy INST 4361 / MLINS 6361 Fall 2012 Dr. Richard Hyland

October 18, 2012

Abstract Within the size and scope of this paper, which hinges upon the projected energy demands of the countries of India and Pakistan, our team has embarked upon a study that decompresses by way of analysis the motley amount of energy sources available to these developing and neighboring countries as recommended by industry analysts and current trends. We hope to compile these findings in this paper as coherently and as objectively as possible to convey to the class the ramifications of what energy policy looks like presently and what it should look like in the year 2050 if current trends continue. Part I. Introduction To India and Pakistan As we have been taught in this class, the composition of energy for any civilization is a bedrock foundation in which it can be distinguished whether or not a civilization can even exist or not. Within the central hubs of certain peoples since the beginning of history known as cities with a civic and political heritage, the consumption of energy and the utilization of sources have led to scarcities since antiquity. The machinations of the state and the overall daily activity of the people in the city depended upon having a reliable amount of energy to subsist upon, and energy itself provided a material incentive to either wage war or at least in a more appropriate way, to engage in commerce. The history of ancient India had been dependent upon that fact. The histories of India and Pakistan are intuitively tied to each other and theres little distinction between these countries as both of them have borders that divide them, however the commonality of shared linguistics and a shared experience hopefully reconciles them in the future in regards to the spirit of cooperation and for the sake of a lasting peace. However since this paper concerns the societal mores, trends and parlance of more current and contemporary times, well focus on the collective traits of the energy policies of India and Pakistan. We will strive to decipher each countrys energy potential with the established energy policies that theyve got, the respective sources that they utilize, the degree to which each host country will subsidize and engage in pursuing an agenda towards more ecologically-friendly

sources compared to those that are more environmentally corrosive, and gauging by the sources already in play, well use a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) to see what are the benefits of using these particular sources as well as their shortcomings. In tandem with objectivity, we aim for complete impartiality in observing geopolitical ramifications for these countries and what their host governments have set into motion regarding their energy sectors, both in the present and through to the year 2050. India The composite energy policies of India are a bit more transparent compared to the other country that well be focusing upon, Pakistan. Since India is openly acknowledged as a democracy and leaves speculation at a minimum concerning its energy policies, the fact that India as of late has mandated what it calls FDI, or foreign direct investment, by other countries leads to much more harmonization when it comes to the synergy with which their government will allow foreign investment and capital to accrue in their country while having a domestic energy capacity thats self-serving. India is located in South Asia and aspires to be a world player with clout when it comes to wielding influence both in the region and globally. According to the CIA World Fact Book, India has an aggregate population of over 1.2 billion people who live in this democracy. By the year 2050, Indias projected population growth will have become 1.6 billion, which will make it the most populous nation on earth at that time. 30% of the population is urbanized and by the year 2050, it has been projected by economists and analysts to be 75% urbanized. And according to analysts from Goldman Sachs, the very people who had invented the term BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), by the year 2050 India will have become the worlds

third largest economy with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over $25 trillion dollars. The same analysts analyze that despite this trend, there will still have been dismal poverty alleviation in India with the per capita GDP being close to $12,000 per annum by the year 2050. Given the ready allocation of resources at their disposal and a sizeable budget that lends itself towards opportunities towards more energy consumption, India has a burgeoning middle class that has a mindset of attaining cars, more amenities for living an urbanized Western-style life and has a ready and capable population of citizens who promote the sort of self-reliance that bolsters its standing among nations. When it comes to the issue of domestic consumption presently, coal reigns as king in India distinctly because of its ready availability with over 267 billion tons of it. It is noted that India currently has one-third of all of the coal deposits of the world. India utilizes 56.65% of its coal reserves for its domestic consumption on a yearly basis and there has been a chartered legislation that mandates that coal will be utilized to an increment of over 10% more in the next fiscal year of 2013. India has a 70% reliance on fossil fuels for consumption per annum of which coal comprises 40%. It is also worth noting that the coal industry in India is nationalized. Using the SWOT analysis when it comes to the coal industry in India has ramifications of what it means to have coal as the primary energy source in the country. Given the typical notions many in the West have got about coal, one has to keep in mind that despite its corrosive nature and impact on the environment, the ready availability of coal is the main signifier of what it is that India has predicated its domestic consumption will look like. But the regard we in the West have for the environment is not a concern lost on the Indians and there are many government ministers and private citizens who are advocating for renewables and non-fossil fuels getting a lions share of domestic energy all of the way up to the year 2050.

Strengths A notable strength for Indias domestic energy is the ready availability of the coal reserves. With close to 267 billion tons of coal, India has signed legislation into effect that will utilize 347 million tons of it for its yearly consumption use. India also has the fifth largest wind power industry. India has 1,437 billion cubic meters of confirmed natural gas reserves as of April 2010. Nuclear power is the fourth largest source for its domestic energy. With a country that has its national security in check, nuclear power is expected to be close to half of its domestic energy consumption in the future. This includes all of the way up to 2050. India is increasingly concentrating on renewables as way to combat the carbon dioxide emissions that this country must deal with. Weakness According to domestic Indian analysts, coal use in India is projected to diminish due to depletion of it and the fact that many of these analysts concede that coal is the biggest cause of carbon dioxide emissions in India, something that the global scientific community has said will no longer have been a viable energy source in the future. India has a 70% reliance on fossil fuels, a trend most developed nations are shying away from.

Opportunities In the advocacy of pursuing renewables and other non-fossil fuels, according to some analysts renewables have to comprise 65% of Indias domestic needs in the future (year 2050). Keeping ahead of its power outages and energy shortages, Indias total energy production will reach 88GW by the year 2050. India must take formative steps to ensure that it is following all protocols regarding world opinion concerning the environment. With foreign direct investment into the energy sector in India, theres the possibility of multinationals entering into the Indian market and transferring capital. Threats Due to the natural gas pipeline that has been signed into effect known as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, the looming threat of terrorism is evident as India has become a signatory with countries that have serious geopolitical security issues. In spite of significant improvements, India is still a country rife with corruption and graft, which can be at times unnerving to many investors and companies from the West who want to establish commerce with the Indians. There are serious and hazardous ecological threats in India. This is emblematic of the lack of a potent water supply, periodic drought and poor infrastructure, proper land utilization, and this is heightened by the fact that India is a chief contributor to greenhouse gases. The fact that many of its populace aspire to have upward social

mobility means that this degradation of the land and incrementally higher pollution will have devastating consequences in the future. The aforementioned trends in India continue to hold steady even though accords by the national government are being struck. What is beyond just conjecture is the fact that compared to the US, India is bound to exploit renewables to a certain degree that doesnt hold much sway in Washington circles the same way. Within the civic society of India, the determination of utilizing all available sources other than fossil fuels is something that is starting to gain momentum. Even in government-sponsored studies done in transparency and with the public interest in sight, policy analysts have conceded that business cannot go on as usual in India and some estimates have seen the sort of death-knell for coal due to the prevalence in domestic consumption. What one can assert is the fact that since India is an incipient transitioning country with first-world aspirations, any domestic resource that can be put to use is certainly going to be used. In Indias case with coal, even on to eventual depletion. Pakistan Pakistan, compared to India, is a country that doesnt have the allocation of resources that India has. Nor does it have a tentative peace inside and the Weberian monopoly of violence of the national government that India seems to largely enjoy. This implies that due to having a country stricken by violence and the fact that certain regions of the country are privy to sectarian issues, the issue of commerce within its own borders and the relative security necessary for procuring for the national government of Pakistan the guarantee that any of its energy infrastructures wont be susceptible to violence is a bit sketchy. Also one has to keep in mind that due to the political climate there, the issue of transparency on the behalf of the government

doesnt enjoy the same potential that it does in India, hence when we embark on the issue of energy policy in Pakistan, it comes under the scrutiny of policy analysts. Pakistan is a country that shares a border with India in the east and with Afghanistan and Iran in the western part of the country. According to the CIA World Fact Book, Pakistan has a population of over 190 million people. By the year 2050, it is projected to have a population of over 300 million people. 36% of the population is urbanized and by the year 2050, 54% of the population will have become urbanized. In 2050, Pakistan is expected to have a GDP of $2.5 trillion compared to the $484 billion it currently has. However it is worth noting that many analysts have been reticent to propose a projected per capita GDP in Pakistan due to the lack of availability of resources at their disposal. Pakistan, in comparison with India, didnt embark on its mission for a sustainable energy solution until just rather recently in 2010 when a government minister of Pakistan delineated in a proposal that due to power shortages and outages, the countrys energy consumption will be a cause for concern for the approximate future. It is worth noting that natural gas is the countrys biggest domestic source for energy consumption, comprising 50.3% of yearly usage. Unlike India which is having a glut of foreign direct investment into its energy markets, Pakistans net foreign direct investment has plummeted 67% due to tensions, sectarian strife and security issues. Strengths Pakistan has 3.3 million tons of coal at their disposal. Pakistan has 28 trillion proven cubic feet of natural gas. Pakistan has utilized 11% of its yearly domestic energy usage from hydroelectric power.

Weaknesses It has just recently formally introduced its domestic energy plan (2010). It has sporadic and lengthy power shortages and outages throughout the country. Many of its citizens go about their daily activities without power at all. Regarding its oil industry, Pakistan lacks the technology needed to refine its oil capacities. Due to the lack of foreign investment, Pakistans energy potential goes unaddressed. Oil represents 29.4% of Pakistans energy use on a yearly basis, which leaves them reliant on fossil fuels for quite a considerable length of time. The only renewable envisioned in Pakistan thatll be utilized in the year 2050 is hydroelectric power. Pakistan has its own problems with pollution and its utilization of fossil fuels can compromise the environment. Opportunities With foreign aid from the West including the United States, Pakistan can utilize that aid towards addressing their much neglected energy policy. With an elected democracy in power, Pakistan can use clout to convey to the West that they have an earnest desire for cooperation regarding its energy usage. With the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, Pakistan can use that revenue towards addressing commerce with its neighbors. Threats

Due to sectarian violence and the ongoing War On Terror, Pakistans energy infrastructures are threatened by extremists.

Pakistan is a nuclear country with the bomb, so if tensions dont deescalate soon or get worse, it could spell disaster for the country.

In regards to its utilization for hydroelectricity, Pakistan is a country that is periodically stricken by droughts. If a part of the country where these facilities conduct operations are compromised, that could spell disaster for its domestic energy usage.

Corruption and graft on the behalf of the government is still a huge issue in Pakistan, which in turn bilks investors out of capital and establishes the future unwillingness of possible multinationals and investors to have a stake in the countrys energy policy.

Due to the War On Terror that Pakistan is currently quagmired in, the very concept that it is at war against a significant part of its own population who are disenfranchised and have a view on life that runs counter to what the Pakistani government and elites have in mind, makes one wonder if they can get the necessary human and financial capital required for maintaining and bolstering its infrastructure in regards to its domestic energy capacity. There is also a disparity between what the posturing of policy analysts say regarding Pakistans sustainability path towards renewables, or the opposite of renewables, the utilization of fossil fuels into the year 2050. Without the required stimulus from the national government, and foreign NGOs and governments making Pakistan the recipient of foreign aid, who might assert the transition towards renewables into the year 2050, the question at hand is can Pakistan sustain its own energy policy into the year 2050? The fact that it has 28 trillion cubic feet of natural gas is a huge incentive to the country to maintain a semblance of self-sufficiency in regards to its

domestic energy, but Pakistan also imports a lot of crude oil due to the lack of refining methods in the country. It is notable that the chief multinational that is refining their oil reserves is BP. Part II. Possible Solutions Now that weve got an introspection into both of these countries, our team will embark on possible solutions that both India and Pakistan have got regarding utilizing their domestic energy capacities through to the year 2050. A thorough assessment has been established regarding the gaps that diverge them and other attributes regarding the potential of these countries energy usage. These countries have signifiers of ultimate success if a spirit of cooperation is achieved and if the ability to get past prior tensions is eased, then the results can be dramatically improved. In regards to India, the gaze of the West is upon them to improve the ecological disasters that have been so pervasive around the country. Much to the dismay of many Indian citizens, the pollution there goes on unabated and the federal government, despite being a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol, has done a dismal job in regards to the alleviation of poor standards for the environment in India. This is a bit hypocritical when it comes to India who insist upon being at the helm of chiding other countries to compliance with the charter. But it should be recognized that India has taken formative steps to address initiatives by other countries, and in doing so have made India a more acceptable and pleasant place to conduct business. India should follow suit with the West and concentrate on renewables as this frontier market is bound to become the mainstay into the future and will be relevant for decades to come. The appeal of renewables such as biomass, solar power, wind power and hydroelectricity means that the land wont be degraded and this has ramifications for what the future of India will look like in the year 2050.

This appeal also extends to the sustainability of the planet and if India is on board to have a vested interest in renewables, that could provide a lot of resource and investment capital into the country which in turn would make renewables something to seriously contemplate about rather than being dismissive of it. It is worth noting that Indias federal government in December of 2005 engaged in a biomass campaign and had a modicum of success at it. Compared to the US, which is not incentivizing the domestic renewables market and industry to a large scale compared to the subsidization of fossil fuels, Indias willingness to utilize all forms of what many in the West perceive to be negligible modes of fuel is emblematic of the direction it wants to take. Partisanship has its times in India, however the sort of populism attached to Indian politics isnt as divergent as partisan politics here in the US. In the mindset of many Indians, the opportunity to use all available forms of energy is in the specter and with a youth that is inclining towards the path of green sustainability and self-reliance, this has momentous effects on what the future of India will look like in the year 2050 as it will become them who will attain leadership roles in the government. The situation in Pakistan is more sanguine compared to that of India. It doesnt have the same parity with India and is left with more security and governance issues that hinders the progress of having a self-reliant and sustainable energy policy. Though its allocated with a huge and sizeable natural gas reserve, it can be concluded that due to lack of government oversight the situation in addressing energy concerns such as power shortages and outages leaves Pakistan susceptible to not completely and skillfully applying the necessary measures for its own sustenance. This projected energy demand that will be the signifier of what the domestic energy consumption will look like in the future should depend upon renewables. Though it is not as significant of a polluter as India, Pakistan can ill afford to neglect the land that is already stricken

by drought. With an economy that is largely dependent upon agriculture, Pakistan should jointly and with good counsel look outwards towards the West and other patron countries that will get the ball rolling in terms of proper land use and sustainability of the land, which is intuitively aligned with the environment and the energy sector. At a time of adversity and religious strife, Pakistan is beset by issues of sectarianism at a time when they should be addressing a significant portion of the economy: the energy sector. The lack of the availability of human and financial capital doesnt signify an unwillingness to address it, but a deficit in terms of what it can be accomplishing in the meantime. Domestic Pakistani analysts have confirmed that Pakistan has lost 249 billion Pakistani Rupees in 2006 due to environmental damages such as inadequate water supplies, soil degradation, indoor pollution, air pollution, lead exposure, and deforestation. The toll on the environment is a cause for a national emergency and Pakistan should take the steps necessary for its survival. Concerning geopolitics, the means towards which the US government has been incentivizing Pakistan in terms of it being a chief recipient of foreign aid should make for making lives better, which is intuitively aligned with the economy. And with an ever ascending urbanized population in Pakistan, by the year 2050 there should be the rule of law in Pakistan as well as the disregard for graft and corruption. The federal authority in Pakistan have notably declared martial law whenever there have been coup d'tats in the country and even endeared themselves with the populace there with the implementation of Sharia law in vast swaths of the country. But with fringe extremists terrorizing the public in the name of divine authority, one can imagine that the periodic strife there will go on for a considerable amount of time with no end in sight, so the government has to come to an understanding with the populace so that the nomenclature of a failed state is no longer applicable to Pakistan.

Part III. Summation The general perception regarding India and Pakistan is dependent upon what each of these two countries are addressing in terms of the affairs of their states. India hasnt got the same cleavages that the Pakistanis do regarding domestic terrorism, negligible foreign direct investment that dont allow for capital flows, and it has the general semblance of law and order in a form of subsidiarity and federalism with which the government exercises the rule of law and governance. India has taken the onus upon itself to be a proponent of renewables all the while ensuring the population that theyll get the sort of amenities attached with living the good life we seem to take for granted in the West. Projected to become a superpower by the year 2050, India is shrewdly using all of its allocations and capital towards renewables that have the acclamations and distinctions from the established scientific communities of the world. And with the Indian government directly soliciting foreign capital by way of multinationals and investors, this can have a rebounding effect on the fate of renewables there, which is a very encouraging sign. This can be attributed to the societal shifts in modes of thought in a globalized era where borders are starting to become eased, and where theres a transnational cooperation of ideas and motives towards imparting to others what can be done in order that humanity can peer into the future and still leave behind a world that is worth enriching. But certain trends about India are evident in the fact that many of the population are not aware of the ramifications of the carbon footprint, and rightly so, India will have become a much bigger contributor to greenhouse gases as opposed to already having a heavy proportion of it now. This needs to change immediately. Pakistan is languishing in terms of its locality and the fact that many in the population there arent receptive to the government. With a country that is looking to foster relations with

other countries, Pakistan needs the spirit of cooperation to ensure that it will get the resource allocation that it needs and make the transition towards renewables hastily. In granting semiautonomy to certain parts of the country, Pakistan has neglected the onrush of extremism within its borders and this is a trend that lends itself to depreciating the energy trade there. Proponents of extremism in Pakistan will hinder any formative steps in terms of infrastructure necessary for dealing with domestic energy and might take into account that innovation is something thats contradictory to their established societal norms. With India signing a deal with the Pakistanis for a tentative pipeline reaching from Turkmenistan, the issue of security is on the horizon and any malcontent intent on causing harm can set off a huge ecological disaster in the region that will take an onerous amount of time to rectify. With foreign direct investment in Pakistan depreciating 67%, the authorities there have a tense situation on their hands because simply they cannot incentivize the energy markets on their own. And with the nationalization of the energy sector, one can see that corruption and graft has dealt a significant blow to the ability of Pakistan to adroitly address the energy deficit. In maintaining the territorial integrity of these two bordering countries, the issue of sovereignty is always in focus. With wars being fought by India and Pakistan since their respective independence, the issue of rivalry is in focus and that is something that should be deftly avoided in the future. The very nature of domestic energy consumption is in itself a question of what to do in terms of procuring for your citizenry the inherent means of functionality which transcends a border divide and lends itself to conflict resolution. The deficits these countries have displayed during their past should no longer be a deterrent to addressing energy concerns in an expeditious manner, but it seems that India has been faring a whole lot better than Pakistan. When the year 2050 looms, hopefully Pakistans internal issues will have

been addressed and India, aspiring for recognition as it is, will continue to do so in a manner that gets a nod and consensus from the world community.