June 10, 2012

Let's take the first point, that I am in a familiar environment. Since returning home from Mexico, I have come to realize just how much damage I endured. Just physically. As some of you in the Ventrilo Voice Server are aware, I had caught the bacteria, three times, which is colloquially known as Montezumas Revenge, which ravaged my digestive tract. I have lost upwards of 40 lbs (18.8 kilos or 3 stones). And no, I am not exaggerating. I used to weight between 193 to 205 lbs. ( Between 89.81 to X kilos or 13.78 stones to 14.64 stones ). When I first arrived home, I weighed about 163 lbs ( about 73.93 kilos or 11.64 stones ). Thankfully, I've already managed to pack on about 14 lbs, so I'm back up to 173. Still thin, but improving. That sort of weight loss, I have noticed, has affected me mentally. And this job is a job that requires extreme mental focus. I am no longer at a higher elevation that took me over a month to acclimate to. I am no longer in a time zone with which I am unfamiliar. So being home will allow me to get healthy again, which can improve my focus. My weekly schedule will continue to be: Investing and trading the markets from Monday through Wednesday. Thursday I am with my congregation. Friday, I'm researching filings and reports. Saturday What of my daily schedule? I awake at 5:15 am each morning, unless a particular market will require that I wake up sooner. I then look at the Asian and European markets to see what happened when I was sleeping. I then look at the U.S. Markets to watch how the U.S. Futures reacted to the European markets. I then run both the U.S. and European through a quick technical screen. I listen to Bloomberg for a few moments to try to listen to overnight news, and how the news media is reacting to reporting such news. If it's dramatic news that occurred overnight? Then I may even tune in CNBC to listen to how they are 'spinning' this news. I call this little process reading the auction. Than I make my daily plan of attack. But before tomorrow's plan of attack is created? I

Aileron Market Balance

Issue 32
Visit Us: NoNonsenseTrading.com Email: aileronmarketbalance@gmail.com

Each

newsletter on Sunday that will contain my thoughts for the week ahead will have an audio file that accompanies it. The audio file that is associated with this PDF will contain my detailed thoughts moving forward into the next week. This PDF file is meant to serve as a rough, general outline to the audio file that many subscribers are finding more advantageous. I have spoken for a couple of weeks that I look forward to being home in Michigan; and how I look forward to being home stabilizing my investing and trading efforts. So how will being in a familiar environment assist me? Is it a simple matter of feeling better in some sentimental manner, and this will magically lead to better trading? No. I believe, the familiar environment moving forward will assist me physically and mentally. And at the same time, I will have a greater ability to implement a more strict schedule. As well as a schedule that is not at the whims of an unstable internet connection.

June 10, 2012

do see some trades moving forward. open !!! ), as long as $21.53 holds as support first. That same region could act as the stop loss order if entered long. Proshares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH): First thing to consider? Fundamental situation regarding Europe. If risk is off? In other words, Spanish bailout deadline falls apart? It will not happen? Eurobonds is out of the question? Germany makes firm statements about not supporting Spain? Go long the SH, in the same position size.

Investing Outlook:
Note: As a reminder. the share purchases of the Dividend Investing 'Sister' will be extremely small. It is my intent to demonstrate how to grow the size of these positions from 2 shares, to 300 shares using the three sisters portfolio management style. The Dividend Investing 'Sister' Account will also implement the Permanent Portfolio Method beginning in 2012 with $1,120.00 of the cash dedicated towards it.

No further dividend purchases are planned in the upcoming week. The DRIP is off on all stocks. Dividends received will be in the form of straight cash The permanent portfolio section of this account has been built, and now will be managed on a longer term basis. I currently have a 3 point spread over normal permanent portfolio.

Commodity Trading Thoughts

July Sugar (SBN12 or /SBN2): This is a buy, if we can get a retrace in the market, down to the 1986 or 1972 region. Just watching it at this point. July and September Crude Oil (CLN12 or /CLN2 and CLU12 or /CLU2): This is not a market I'm looking to trade. This is a market I'm looking to monitor as a barometer of the worldwide auction.

Trading Outlook:
Note: By way of reminder, since the Model Portfolio has only $10,166.13 in the Commodity Futures and Stock Trading portion of the portfolio, there will only be 'brief day trades' at this stage of the game for Commodity Futures trading in order to escape the risk of over-leveraged gap opens in the commodity futures markets. This is an attempt to demonstrate how account size relates to trading style. As I mention in my methodology series1, as the commodity 'trading sister' approaches $30,000 I will graduate the account into 'swing-trading' and demonstrate how I would go about doing this. Stock trades may last more than one day. The Forex account has $65.50 and is considered a micro-forex account for the purposes of the model portfolio.

Summary of the A.M.B. Model Portfolio

Note: In the beginning of this hypothetical portfolio, the share purchases of the Dividend Investing 'Sister' will be extremely small. It is my intent to demonstrate how to grow the size of these positions from 2 shares, to 300 shares using the three sisters portfolio management style. It is also understood that readers of this newsletter have a firm understanding of my 'three sisters' portfolio management system (See the Special Reference issue of Aileron Market Balance 2 for an explanation of this system).

Possible Stock and ETF Trading Thoughts

Seagate Technologies (STX): As I have stated, I really like this company for a 'long', or a buy on a trade. (Investments I only buy in October / November and January February). It is a company that I'm coming to believe is vastly misunderstood. I know I misunderstood what they were doing. If we get a fundamental risk on scenario of Spanish bailout is a firm go, or Eurobonds or something like that? If Crude Oil continues to trade higher? Yes, I can see a long in this stock above $23.78 (not at the
1 Exact Link http://nononsensetrading.com/methodology.html

S&P 500 Year to Date: +5.306 % AMB Total Portfolio Return Year to Date: + 1.997 % Investing Account Balance: $4,023.93 Return / Yield up 0.8115 % Year to date 4.063508 shares of PEP (DRIP on Yield is 3.15 % )
4 shares at $63.31 on 11/15/2011 w/ $5.01 Commissions

2 Exact Link http://www.scribd.com/doc/73238645/Aileron-MarketBalance-Special-Reference-Issue-Portfolio-Management

June 10, 2012

0.032263 shares DRIP at $66.95 on 1/3/2012 0.032145 shares DRIP at $66.25 on 3/30/2012 Next Dividend: 6/29/2012 Pay Date

Dividend Investing Sister Year to Date

4.0676 shares of PG (DRIP on Yield is 3.58 %)

4 shares at $61.94 on 11/28/2011 w/ $5.01 Commissions 0.32392 shares DRIP at $64.83 on 2/15/2012 0.35208 shares DRIP at $64.19 on 5/15/2012 Next Dividend: Not yet announced

4.035 shares of JNJ (DRIP on Yield is 3.87 %)

4 shares at $62.31 on 11/28/2011 w/ $5.01 Commissions 0.035 shares at $65.14 on 3/13/2012 Next Dividend: 6/12/2012 Pay Date

8.081305 shares of WM (DRIP on Yield is 4.37 % )

8 shares at $32.39 on 12/22/2011 w/ $5.01 Commissions 0.081305 shares DRIP at $34.93 on 3/23/2012 Next Dividend: 6/22/2012

Permanent Portfolio $1,120.00 of cash I reserved for Permanent Portfolio Purchases Return from $1082.72 = - 0.31 %
- $2 shares @ 156.12 of GLD ( $312.24 ) ( Currently $309.46 ) ( 28.67 % of P.P ) - 2 shares @ 139.58 of SPY ( $279.16 ) ( Currently $266.24 ) ( 24.67 % of P.P ) - 2 shares @ 118.17 of TLT ( $236.34) ( Currently $250.42 ) ( 23.20 % of P.P ) - 3 shares @ 84.45 of SHY ( $253.35) (Currently $253.29 ) ( 23.47 % of P.P ) Upon the next re-balance SHY will instead work as pure cash

Stock / Futures / Forex Trading Balance: $10,059.05 ( Return / Yield up + 3.434 % Year to Date ) Commodity Futures and Stock Balance: $9,993.63 Return / Yield up + 3.487 % Year to Date Next Re-Distribution Goal: $10,700.00 Original 3% risk tolerance gives us approximately $282.54 for my drawdown tolerance. $268.34 available from Slush Fund I had one trade last week which was a loss Short 1 ESU2 from 1317 to 1319 LOSS $107.00 on 6/7/2012 (including commissions of $7.00)

Remaining Cash: $1,895.14 ( 47.1 % )

Percentages of that Cash -$1,575.14 of this Maneuvering Capital I reserve for Hedging and New Purchases ( 83.11 % ) -$80.00 of this Maneuvering Capital I reserve to Dollar Cost Average PEP further in the future ( 4.22 % ) DCA Price on PEP - $60.00 -$80.00 of this cash I reserve to Dollar Cost Average PG further in the future ( 4.22 % ) DCA Price on PG- $58.00 -$80.00 of this cash I reserve to Dollar Cost Average JNJ further in the future ( 4.22 % ) DCA Price on JNJ - $59.00 -$80.00 of this cash I reserve to Dollar Cost Average WM further in the future ( 4.22 % ) DCA Price on WM - $28.00

Futures 'Sister' Account Year to Date

$268.34 ( 6.66 % of this account ) available from Slush Fund

June 10, 2012

My current money management stats after the trade last week ... Forex 'Sister' Account Year to Date

And with the reboot process now underway, here are the money management statistics for the last 5 trades

Micro-Forex Balance: $65.42 Return / Yield -4.118 % Year to Date Phase 2 Return: 0.18 % Phase 3 Return: -0.445 % $268.34 available from Slush Fund

I had one Micro-Forex trade last week which was also a loss Short 1 ESU2 from 1317 to 1319 LOSS $107.00 on 6/7/2012 (including commissions of $7.00)

June 10, 2012

Savings Side-Pocket Account Balance: $1,798.57 Capital is -11.33 % Year to Date. Yield Return on Capital is 0.5591 % $270.34 for a Slush fund / Drawdown Kill Switch fund ($234.80 owed to this Fund) $1,010.29 for a Base Savings
Percentages of that Cash: $814.29 of this cash reserved for Long Term Variable Capital PP - ( 80.60 % ) $120.00 of this cash reserved for CD Ladder creation ( 11.88 % ) - One $10.00 One Year CD purchased on 11/21/2011 at 0.60% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 12/21/2011 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 1/21/2012 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 2/21/2012 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 3/21/2012 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 4/21/2012 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 5/21/2012 at 0.50% $20.00 of this cash reserved for the first side-pocket purchase ( 1.98 % ) $20.00 of this cash I reserve for the second sidepocket purchase ( 1.98 % ) $36.00 of this cash I reserve for the hedging account ( 3.563 % )

$505.14 for Emergency Savings Getting Paid Fund: $12.80

Total Portfolio Balance: $15,881.55 - Total AMB Inception to Date Return: + 5.887 % Return / Yield up + 1.997 % year to date) S&P 500 Year to Date: +5.306 %

If you have any questions regarding my personal outlook, or any other comments, please feel free to contact me at dan.shy@gmail.com or aileronmarketbalance@gmail.com. I will say that if you have questions about your own trading and you want to ask for my input? Please include your most recent money management performance statistics in any email correspondence.
Until next time, stay safe trade well, and remember that loving other people doesn't cost a dime.
Note: I, the author do not grant this work for wide distribution beyond any single individual subscriber as this publication is protected by U.S. And International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No license is granted to the user except for the user's personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means except as permitted under the original subscription agreement or with prior written permission. The above statements should not be construed as an investment or trading recommendation. Aileron Market Balance is a newsletter that allows subscribers to look 'over my shoulder' as it were, for my own personal specific trading and investing ideas and thoughts for the next week. But they are only thoughts as of the moment of publication, and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that I will enter, or have entered any of the trading or investing ideas that I discuss in this newsletter; as larger accounts may require a different strategy as the ones presented here. Any trades or investments that I discuss within this newsletter are simply my own thoughts regarding my own investing and trading outlook. I discuss which trades I take and do not take on the No Nonsense Trading Forums, as well as the Ventrilo Voice Server. Remember that entering any market is an individual decision. This newsletter simply contains my trading and investing thoughts for the next week. I personally only enter any market after watching and reading the tape and I trade using money management principles3. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle and market, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 16 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Model Portfolio accounts are hypothetical accounts,with all of the inherent problems therein, which are used within this newsletter in an attempt to track the results of this newsletter, and is run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, due diligence, and tolerance for risk. Any pictures used within this newsletter are believed to be public domain. Any charts that are displayed using the ThinkorSwim platform, and other pictures were obtained through Wikipedia's public domain policy.

Exact Link - http://nononsensetrading.com/MoneyManagement.html